Analysis for league 495

Here's my writeup on my tier 2 draft from last Thursday. I've listed the projected starters and my analysis of each team in order of the place we drafted:

1> Jack Daniels (me) - Donovan McNabb, Adrian Peterson, Willie Parker, Roddy White, Santonio Holmes, Laverneous Coles, John Carlson, Carson Palmer, Tenn, Stephen Gostkowski

I like the depth of my team. Between Parker/Mendenhall, Fred Jackson and Cedric Benson, I should have two stud backs every week to go with the consistent QB. WR could hurt me (as usual) but you can usually find productive wr's in free agency. If Palmer gets hurt again, then the lack of QB depth could hurt.
Prediction: 3rd

2> Hottails and Screams 9 - Drew Brees, Clinton Portis, Pierre Thomas, Wes Welker, Vincent Jackson, Torry Holt, Greg Olsen, Kurt Warner, Kris Brown, Phil

A final 15 member from last year, Eric went with the popular belief on how to win the FFOC...get two good QB's. Brees and Warner can single handedly win him most weeks. His position players are pretty questionable in my eyes. Portis and Welker are usually consistent, but he doesn't have that position player to give him a few monster weeks each year. Prediction: 5th

3> Nicky Double D's - Matt Cassell, Michael Turner, Larry Johnson, Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings, Steve Smith (car), Dallas Clark, Eli Manning/Thomas Jones, Nate Kaeding, Chicago

Went with the top position players and didn't take a QB til round 8. I like the strategy as long as you find the right sleeper QB. Last year it was Rodgers, Cutler and Warner. Will it be Cassell this year? Stud WR's and solid RB's should keep this team in contention all season. Prediction: 2nd

4> Booty Busters 1 - Tom Brady, Frank Gore, Ryan Grant, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall, Roy Williams, Kevin Boss, Matt Hasselbeck, Nick Folk, Baltimore

Brady and Gore is a great starting place for any lineup. They did pretty well in the rest of the draft. They did a good job of drafting a lot of rb's. I feel it's harder to pick up a starting RB than it is a WR in free agency. I'm not very fond of Matt Hasselbeck as the #2 QB/flex position. Other than that, this team looks good. Prediction: 4th

5> cvnpoka3 - Jay Cutler, Maurice Jones-Drew, Brandon Jacobs, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Dwayne Bowe, Owen Daniels, Ben Roethlisberger, Neil Rackers, NY Giants

Probably the strongest starting lineup in the league. May have some down weeks at QB, but the RB's and WR's will have no problem carrying the load. Also has some nice sleepers on the bench in Chris Henry, Trent Edwards and Correll Buchhalter. Only injuries can keep this team out of the finals. Prediction: 1st

6> Brew Crew - Phillip Rivers, Matt Forte, Brian Westbrook, Randy Moss, Antonio Bryant, Lee Evans, Jason Witten, Jake Delhomme, Adam Vinatieri, Green Bay

Caught a nice surprise when Forte fell to #6. I don't really like the rest of the draft though. I don't see Bryant or Lance Moore being productive receivers as they were much of last season. They handcuffed McCoy to Westbrook which should give them 2 solid rb's each week. Shaun Hill could be a surprise QB this year. Overall, too many question marks on this team. Prediction: 10th

7> the sappsuckers 3 - Aaron Rodgers, D'Angelo Williams, Felix Jones, Marques Colston, Eddie Royal, Anthony Gonzalez, Dustin Keller, Matt Schaub, Mason Crosby, Pitt

Very strong at QB, but needs one of their young rb's (Jones, Moreno, De.Ward) to come through and be consistent. No real go to WR's to make up for the unproven RB's. Prediction:

8> Banshee Bandit - Tony Romo, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, Chad Johnson, TJ Houshmanzadah, Bernard Berrien, Chris Cooley, Marion Barber III, Garret Hartley, SD

Very good RB corp will keep them in contention. Romo is a big question mark with the thin WR group he has to throw to. All the WR's are in new situations, so their productivity is an unknown quantity. Bench is very weak, so if any RB goes down or Romo becomes a game manager instead of a gunslinger, then it could be a long season for the Bandits. Prediction: 7th

9> team E - Kyle Orton, Stephen Jackson, Kevin Smith, Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Owens, Braylon Edwards, Tony Gonzalez, David Garrard, Matt Prater, Dallas

Very good WR group. Many of the top teams last year had good production from their WR's, so that bodes well for the E's. QB's appear weak on paper, but I think Orton will be a blessing to owners being in Denver's system. If not, this becomes a middle of the pack team. Prediction: 6th

10> Clam Digger 600 - Peyton Manning, LaDanien Tomlinson, Ronnie Brown, DeSean Jackson, Santana Moss, Donnie Avery, Antonio Gates, Matt Ryan, David Akers, NY Jets

No true studs unless LT returns to form. They did handcuff him with Sproles, so they need one of the two to step up and get a majority of the touches. Hopefully the Dolphins realize that Ronnie Brown is a top 8 NFL back and give him 20+ touches per game. Have some hope for lightning on the bench with Derek Brown and Leon Washington. Precition: 8th


Good luck everyone!

league 474 draft analysis

On Tuesday, I had my first FFOC draft. It went pretty quick and smooth. One owner missed the first 4 or 5 rounds and was put on auto draft and I had a work interruption and missed the last 3 or 4 rounds (sorry for slowing it down).

I've listed the projected starters and my analysis of each team in order of the place we drafted:

1> Kuhawks - Kurt Warner, Adrian Peterson, Ronnie Brown, Brandon Marshall, Chad Johnson, Hines Ward, Tony Gonzalez, Matt Schaub, Nick Folk, Pittsburgh

Very solid starting lineup, but a very thin bench. Assuming they strengthen their bench through Free Agency. Prediction: 3rd

2> Cocktails and Dreams XV - Aaron Rodgers, Maurice Jones Drew, Brandon Jacobs, Dwayne Bowe, Antonio Bryant, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Gates, Donovan McNabb, Jason Elam, Minnesota

Chad showed why he's an expert. Very solid draft to go along with a solid bench full of potential (Orton, B.Wells, M.Bush, D.Avery, R.Rice). I pick this team as the team to beat, and not just because of the reputation. If there's a weakness, it's #2 rb, but he has plenty of options and just one of them needs to come through. Prediction: 1st

3> George Dickel (me) - Phillip Rivers, Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Lee Evans, DeSean Jackson, Donald Driver, Jason Witten, Trent Edwards, Mason Crosby, San Diego

Who doesn't like their team after the draft? As usual, I skimped on WR figuring you can always find productive WR's on waivers if yours don't produce. The key will be having Trent Edwards or Chad Pennington set up to consistently get 13-20 points. Strong running backs could turn this into a contending team (addai, fred jackson and buckhalter on the bench). Prediction: 4th

4> Alley Cats - Matt Cassel, Matt Forte, Brian Westbrook, Randy Moss, Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson, Kellen Winslow, Derrick Ward, Rob Bironas, Philly

Very dangerous team with talent like Forte, Westbrook, Moss and Colston. Quarterback is a huge question mark (Garrard is only other qb). Also thin at RB for the games that Westbrook will miss due to injury. If Westbrook stays healthy and Cassel is solid, this is another team who can contend for the title. Prediction: 5th

5> goombeens - Tony Romo, Ryan Grant, Willie Parker, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Jennings, Bryant Johnson, Owen Daniels, Ben Roethlisberger, Adam Vinatieri, Chicago

Even though they aren't big names, I like his rb's. Also has Reggie Bush and Lendale White as reserves. What will Romo be without TO? Who is going to be their #3 WR? If Derrick Mason unretires, that will help a lot. For now, I see too many dead spots. Prediction: 8th

6> jcanes - Carson Palmer, Steve Slaton, D'Angelo Williams, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Roy Williams, Dallas Clark, Larry Johnson, Nate Kaeding, NY Giants

Must have been in the league last year, as they snatched up the two stars of the top 15...Slaton and Williams. Quarterback can be a problem if Palmer continues to struggle as Jason Campbell is their only other QB. Bench has too many rookies on it for my liking. Prediction: 9th

7> LearnToRise II - Tom Brady, Marion Barber III, Darren McFadden, Andre Johnson, TJ Houshmanzadah, Tedd Ginn Jr, Greg Olsen, Jay Cutler, Steve Gostkowski, Baltimore

I expect Brady to rebound and be an elite fantasy QB once again. Running back will make or break this team. I look for Barber to be solid this year, but they need McFadden, James Stewart or Maroney to step up and be a reliable #2 rb. Good depth and 3 good qb's. Prediction: 2nd

8> Cougar Goldrush 2 - Peyton Manning, Stephen Jackson, Clinton Portis, Terrell Owens, Bernard Berrian, Lance Moore, Zach Miller, Marc Bulger, Neil Rackers, Green Bay

They better find a rich cougar because I don't see this team going anywhere, much less to the final 15. The RB's are injury prone and are past their best seasons. Bench and wr's are thin. Bulger and Collins aren't good fantasy qb's in their current systems. An MVP season out of Stephen Jackson is the only way I see this team competing. Prediction: 10th

9> team fupa - Matt Ryan, Chris Johnson, LT, Steve Smith (car), Wes Welker, Eddie Royal, Chris Cooley, Eli Manning, Garret Hartley, New England

Deep at WR. Has decent, not great qb's. A lot depends on the season LT has. LeSean McCoy is a sleeper that could also help this team get over the hump. Prediction: 6th

10> Benisato Tier I - Drew Brees, Cedric Benson, Pierre Thomas, Anquan Boldin, Braylon Edwards, Anthony Gonzalez, Jeremy Shockey, Matt Hasselbeck, David Akers, NY Jets

Unfortunately, he got stuck in a meeting and missed the first 4 or 5 rounds. Ended up with Cedric Benson as the #10 overall pick and Pierre Thomas in round 4. One reason why I highly suggest to set your draft lists before your draft just in case you run into unexpected difficulties. The team is still decent with potential. Braylon Edwards could be the key to whether they contend for one of the top spots. Precition: 7th

One a quick note...here are my top 5 value picks from our draft:
#5 - LearnToRise II - Tedd Ginn Jr rd 10 94th pick overall
#4 - George Dickel - Frank Gore rd 2 19th pick overall
#3 - LearnToRise II - Chris Henry (cin) rd 15 146th pick overall
#2 - jcanes - Larry Johnson rd 6 55th pick overall
#1 - goombeens - Willie Parker rd 7 65th pick overall

Good luck everyone!

First draft results

I will give an overview of the league #474 draft later when I have more time. For now, here are my picks out of the #3 position. Adrian Peterson went first and MJ Drew went 2nd.

George Dickel

Round 1: Michael Turner
Round 2: Frank Gore
Round 3: Joseph Addai
Round 4: Jason Witten
Round 5: Philip Rivers
Round 6: DeSean Jackson
Round 7: Trent Edwards
Round 8: Lee Evans
Round 9: Fred Jackson
Round 10: San Diego Chargers
Round 11: Donald Driver
Round 12: Chad Pennington
Round 13: Correll Buckhalter
Round 14: Tennessee Titans
Round 15: Jerious Norwood
Round 16: Mark Bradley
Round 17: Brent Celek
Round 18: Greg Camarillo
Round 19: Mason Crosby
Round 20: Rian Lindell

First post of the 2009 season!

Last year, I didn't start blogging until week 6 or 7 and I missed out on the pre-season analysis, strategy and predictions. I think this could be the biggest asset to the other owners, so I hope to provide some good insight this season as people prepare for their drafts.
Speaking of drafts...I have my first one in a few hours. I typically don't start thinking football until Mid-August, so I'm totally unprepared and still in baseball mode. My two July drafts will probably be pretty weak as I'll be going off of memory with some slight review of the free agents and where they went. I can say this much...Brett Favre will not be on any of my rosters. Great guy, and great for my hometown Packers, but he's done. He can still manage a game, but that make him another Chad Pennington or Steve McNair. Good for your football team, but not for your fantasy team.
Other than getting an idea of how high certain players are going, I'm anxious for this draft because one of the FFOC legends is in my league. The professional Chad from Omaha owner of the Coctails and Dreams franchises. He had a great run last year and had a nice profit. He obviously knows his business and I'll be interested to watch his draft and follow his moves during the season. You never know how good you are until you go up against the best of the best!
As far as my strategy for this draft, it will be the same as last year. Take the best player available and don't worry about bye weeks or positions until the later rounds. Since Quarterbacks score the most points and you're able to use them at the flex position, getting 2 good qb's is essential to success. Last year, I got lucky with Kurt Warner who took the place of my 3rd pick, Derek Anderson, who fell like a football going through Braylon Edwards' hands. He hit ground zero hard and often! I still believe that rb's are the next important spot and can carry you. Wide receivers are a dime a dozen and are the least of my worries. I may try to get one top WR since most of the Vegas finalists had a top WR like Steve Smith or Roddy White on their roster.
Good luck to those drafting. If you're in one of my leagues, I'd love to hear from you. The league play is much more fun when you know the owners. I have 3 teams and I am in Whiskey/Bourbon Heaven with team names of Jack Daniels, Jim Beam and George Dickel.