My PFFWC teams stunk once again. Only a big night by Frank Gore gave me my first wins of the year out of 4 teams. Looking at my week 2 predictions, I see why my teams lack talent.....
STUDS:
Michael Turner: Probably was a good pick, but injury gave a majority of the stats to Snelling instead of Turner
Aaron Rodgers: A very solid week, but nothing outstanding
Wes Welker: Like Rodgers...solid week, but not enough to carry a team.
Andre Johnson: Winner Winner
Joe Flacco: One of the worst weaks of any QB LOSER LOSER
2nd/3rd tier player to give a surprise performance: Jabbar Gaffney
Another LOSER LOSER. Looks like Denver is spreading the ball around, so to play any of their WR's is a roll of the dice.
DUDS
Michael Vick: Should have switched him and Flacco around
Tony Romo/Miles Austin: Big weeks from these 2
DeSean Jackson: See Michael Vick
Chad Ochocinco: One out of 5 isn't bad is it?
All Cardinals, Rams and Bills: Hightower and Clayton did OK, but the rest were truly duds
Tuesday, September 21
Friday, September 17
Rough start
Week 1 was a success for the PFFWC, but a complete failure for me. Everything with the new system ran smoothly for Aaron in his first week. His stat service gave him some false information which made for some extra work, but that should only be a one week issue. Kudos to Aaron for pulling off this minor miracle by getting a full fledged national contest up and running in 6 months when starting from scratch!
When I set my lineups in week 1, I looked at the teams I drafted in June and July and thought "What was I thinking?". I had plenty of players who don't deserve to be on rosters and very few big time players I could count on. The numbers proved my initial thought as I didn't have a single team score over 90 points in my 4 leagues.
Here's a quick list of players I expect to have stud week and players to have dud weeks in week 2:
STUDS:
Michael Turner: this game will be a blowout with Turner being the benefactor. After going against the steel curtain last week, the Falcons will feel like they are playing against only 8 guys this week with the Cardinals
Aaron Rodgers: not going on a limb here. Packers will score at least 40 this week at home and no Ryan Grant means more throws for ARodge. I expect at least 4 TD's and 300+ yards out of him.
Wes Welker: Coming of a surprising week where he found the endzone twice, I love his matchup. With Revis most likely guarding Moss, Welker will tear apart Cromartie. Kyle Wilson has the quickness to give him a challenge, but I'll take the veteran Welker against a rookie corner every time. I predict a whopping 13+ catches for Welker this week.
Andre Johnson: With Foster having the huge game last week, Houston didn't need to pass the ball. This week they will as they go up against the tough Redskin defense. Look for Schaub to air it out and Johnson will be his main target as usual.
Joe Flacco: He now has weapons and won't have to face the Jets defense. The Bengals have been hyped as one of the top AFC teams, but Baltimore will show them they have a long ways to go to catch the Ravens.
2nd/3rd tier player to give a surprise performance: Jabbar Gaffney
He's emerged as a decent start on many fantasy teams and this week he'll prove that last week wasn't a fluke and he will soon become a must start player. Seattle's a bad team who plays good defense at home and not good on the road.
DUDS
Michael Vick: Unfortunately, I have to start him this week in a few leagues because of injuries and Vince Young going against Pittsburgh. He will do OK because they are playing Detroit. However, people who expect big points out of him will be disappointed. He is an inaccurate passer and if a team can game plan for him, they will greatly reduce his rushing yards. Look for McCoy to get more of a work load and Vick's poor throwing will lead to more punts than scores.
Tony Romo/Miles Austin: The offensive line was a sieve last week and they get Columbo back this week which will help, but it's still not enough to stop Julius Peppers and crew. If you don't have time to throw the ball, it's hard to gain yards passing. What a concept! I like the Cowboy receivers against the Bears secondary, but I have a feeling Romo will be running for his life.
DeSean Jackson: See Michael Vick
Chad Ochocinco: Bengals will have a hard time moving the ball against the Ravens. The only thing going for them is that the Ravens have a short week and expended a lot of energy in Monday nights game.
All Cardinals, Rams and Bills: These are 3 pathetic teams going on the road against solid defenses. All 3 teams will get blown out with very little offense to show for it. Consider other options if you have players like Hightower, Clayton, Anderson, Spiller, Evans, and Fitzgerald.
When I set my lineups in week 1, I looked at the teams I drafted in June and July and thought "What was I thinking?". I had plenty of players who don't deserve to be on rosters and very few big time players I could count on. The numbers proved my initial thought as I didn't have a single team score over 90 points in my 4 leagues.
Here's a quick list of players I expect to have stud week and players to have dud weeks in week 2:
STUDS:
Michael Turner: this game will be a blowout with Turner being the benefactor. After going against the steel curtain last week, the Falcons will feel like they are playing against only 8 guys this week with the Cardinals
Aaron Rodgers: not going on a limb here. Packers will score at least 40 this week at home and no Ryan Grant means more throws for ARodge. I expect at least 4 TD's and 300+ yards out of him.
Wes Welker: Coming of a surprising week where he found the endzone twice, I love his matchup. With Revis most likely guarding Moss, Welker will tear apart Cromartie. Kyle Wilson has the quickness to give him a challenge, but I'll take the veteran Welker against a rookie corner every time. I predict a whopping 13+ catches for Welker this week.
Andre Johnson: With Foster having the huge game last week, Houston didn't need to pass the ball. This week they will as they go up against the tough Redskin defense. Look for Schaub to air it out and Johnson will be his main target as usual.
Joe Flacco: He now has weapons and won't have to face the Jets defense. The Bengals have been hyped as one of the top AFC teams, but Baltimore will show them they have a long ways to go to catch the Ravens.
2nd/3rd tier player to give a surprise performance: Jabbar Gaffney
He's emerged as a decent start on many fantasy teams and this week he'll prove that last week wasn't a fluke and he will soon become a must start player. Seattle's a bad team who plays good defense at home and not good on the road.
DUDS
Michael Vick: Unfortunately, I have to start him this week in a few leagues because of injuries and Vince Young going against Pittsburgh. He will do OK because they are playing Detroit. However, people who expect big points out of him will be disappointed. He is an inaccurate passer and if a team can game plan for him, they will greatly reduce his rushing yards. Look for McCoy to get more of a work load and Vick's poor throwing will lead to more punts than scores.
Tony Romo/Miles Austin: The offensive line was a sieve last week and they get Columbo back this week which will help, but it's still not enough to stop Julius Peppers and crew. If you don't have time to throw the ball, it's hard to gain yards passing. What a concept! I like the Cowboy receivers against the Bears secondary, but I have a feeling Romo will be running for his life.
DeSean Jackson: See Michael Vick
Chad Ochocinco: Bengals will have a hard time moving the ball against the Ravens. The only thing going for them is that the Ravens have a short week and expended a lot of energy in Monday nights game.
All Cardinals, Rams and Bills: These are 3 pathetic teams going on the road against solid defenses. All 3 teams will get blown out with very little offense to show for it. Consider other options if you have players like Hightower, Clayton, Anderson, Spiller, Evans, and Fitzgerald.
Friday, September 10
Week 1 is here
Last night, I completed my last 2 drafts of the season. 19 leagues in all for me this year plus 3 or 4 survivor/picks pools. The fun part is now over, and it's time to get to work. Many people think all the work is in draft preparation and the actual draft. However, I credit most of my success to the in season work.
To start, I watch as many games as possible and study box scores of the ones I don't. Stats are nice, but they don't always tell the true story. Some things I look for that don't show up in the box score are...
- targets...who does the qb look to in key situations when the team needs a first down. If he consistently targets the same receiver, you know that receiver has a good chance to be productive this season
- talent...many running backs rely on the offensive line to give them holes, but special backs can make people miss as well as lower the shoulder and gain extra yards on contact. The NFL trend is to go with the younger, more explosive running backs. After 3-5 years of heavy use, backs lose some burst and start turning 10 yard gains into 4 yard gains.
- offensive identity...from year to year, most teams keep the same offensive identity. I like to make note of the teams who are definitely running teams and those that are definitely passing teams.
- red zone...going along with offensive identity, I like to see what type of plays a team runs inside the 10 yard line as well as what players are in the game. Is a team using a specific goal line back? Does one receiver play over another in the red zone because of his size and/or strength?
I use these outside factors when drafting as well. Some people go strictly off the magazine rankings and 2009 stats. I make my own rankings which often differ greatly from the so called experts. One example is that I severely downgraded Phillip Rivers this year due to his lack of WR's. Malcom Floyd is a solid #2, but he's not the play maker V-Jax was. Combine the lack of weapons with a rookie running back who will probably mess up on pass protection occasionally, and I see him struggling. Another move I did was to put Shonn Greene in my top 8 rb's. The Jets are a running team and he will get a bulk of the carries. Last year he had 7 td's as the 2nd back and now that he's the man, he can be a stud. LT will obviously get some carries and some goal line touches, but look for Greene to have a monster week.
I want to finish by going off on a tangent. Congrats to Aaron aka Mustache Sweater Man, on getting his PFFWC contest (www.pffwc.com) up and running in short time. For his first season, he has 200 teams from 70+ different participants.
The site gets better and better every day as he pumps out more code. The draft application was easy to use and very well designed. He has great team management features which makes it easy for guys like Zebb who has 17 teams, to manage all of their teams from one screen. The best part is that he lives and breathes the PFFWC, so if something isn't right, he's on top of it and fixing the error ASAP. This one man crew is the best customer support I've ever seen for a national contest. I hope the rest of the season goes well for him and that he can build off the year 1 success and see the contest grow in leaps and bounds next year!
Good luck everyone!
To start, I watch as many games as possible and study box scores of the ones I don't. Stats are nice, but they don't always tell the true story. Some things I look for that don't show up in the box score are...
- targets...who does the qb look to in key situations when the team needs a first down. If he consistently targets the same receiver, you know that receiver has a good chance to be productive this season
- talent...many running backs rely on the offensive line to give them holes, but special backs can make people miss as well as lower the shoulder and gain extra yards on contact. The NFL trend is to go with the younger, more explosive running backs. After 3-5 years of heavy use, backs lose some burst and start turning 10 yard gains into 4 yard gains.
- offensive identity...from year to year, most teams keep the same offensive identity. I like to make note of the teams who are definitely running teams and those that are definitely passing teams.
- red zone...going along with offensive identity, I like to see what type of plays a team runs inside the 10 yard line as well as what players are in the game. Is a team using a specific goal line back? Does one receiver play over another in the red zone because of his size and/or strength?
I use these outside factors when drafting as well. Some people go strictly off the magazine rankings and 2009 stats. I make my own rankings which often differ greatly from the so called experts. One example is that I severely downgraded Phillip Rivers this year due to his lack of WR's. Malcom Floyd is a solid #2, but he's not the play maker V-Jax was. Combine the lack of weapons with a rookie running back who will probably mess up on pass protection occasionally, and I see him struggling. Another move I did was to put Shonn Greene in my top 8 rb's. The Jets are a running team and he will get a bulk of the carries. Last year he had 7 td's as the 2nd back and now that he's the man, he can be a stud. LT will obviously get some carries and some goal line touches, but look for Greene to have a monster week.
I want to finish by going off on a tangent. Congrats to Aaron aka Mustache Sweater Man, on getting his PFFWC contest (www.pffwc.com) up and running in short time. For his first season, he has 200 teams from 70+ different participants.
The site gets better and better every day as he pumps out more code. The draft application was easy to use and very well designed. He has great team management features which makes it easy for guys like Zebb who has 17 teams, to manage all of their teams from one screen. The best part is that he lives and breathes the PFFWC, so if something isn't right, he's on top of it and fixing the error ASAP. This one man crew is the best customer support I've ever seen for a national contest. I hope the rest of the season goes well for him and that he can build off the year 1 success and see the contest grow in leaps and bounds next year!
Good luck everyone!
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