In a match where the winner is most likely guaranteed a playoff spot, neither team will be at full strength. I'm missing my only RB (Gore) and he's missing a parade of Saints (Brees, Bush, Colston).
QB - This is where I have to win the game. I've carried 5 qb's all year because they score the most points. With Brees being off, I tried to monopolize the qb's without comprising my final roster by using my remaining free agent dollars to start a qb carousel on my roster. I decided not to pick up Joe Flacco since I needed depth at RB, so OPT can pick him up if desired.
GoPackGo - Kurt Warner (19.6) and Trent Edwards (15.4)
OPT18 - Dan Orlovsky (12.3)
ADVANTAGE: GoPackGo
RB - I'm left with a bunch of semi-productive part timers. I debated picking up Fargas since he'll get 17+ carries, but he hasn't produced. I dropped Julius Jones because he has been fighting with Holmgren and he prefers Maurice Morris. Hopefully McFadden misses another week with his toe injuries.
GoPackGo - Maurice Morris (8) and Tim Hightower (4)
OPT18 - Steve Slaton (5), Darren McFadden (3) and Thomas Jones (8)
ADVANTAGE: OPT18
WR - I used my free agent control to grab the two top FA wr's who I will start this week. I decided not to keep Breaston on my roster now that Boldin is back. I hope I don't regret this move. It was between Breaston and Henderson for my final roster spot. OPT has Santana Moss currently on his bench, who may end up making an impact if McFadden doesn't play.
GoPackGo - Kevin Walter (6), Eddie Royal (13), Donnie Avery (6)
OPT18 - Greg Jennings (15), Laverneous Coles (7) and Kevin Curtis (18)
ADVANTAGE: OPT18
TE - I'm heading out of town tonight, so to be safe, I'm starting the newly acquired Donald Lee over the injured Jason Witten. I think Witten will play, but I can't afford a zero.
GoPackGo - Donald Lee (2)
OPT18 - Dallas Clark (8)
ADVANTAGE: OPT18
K - I decided to carry 2 kickers for the playoff run to be safe.
GoPackGo - Jason Elam (7)
OPT18 - Matt Prater (7)
ADVANTAGE: PUSH
Def - As stated in the earlier post, I screwed up on my free agent biddings and dropped Arizona instead of Washington. I should be playing Arizona's DST this week.
GoPackGo - Washington (4)
OPT18 - Minnesota (8)
ADVANTAGE: OPT18
Final prediction:
GoPackGo - 85
OPT18 - 91.3
Hmmmmm...overall, I think I should win this week, but according to my predictions, I won't. Hopefully I underestimated the TD's out of my RB's and WR's. I only give Royal credit for scoring one this week.
I'm heading to Nashville in the morning for the Packer-Titan game. I'm not going to get to watch the live scoring and I will only have a guess as to how many points I need out of my Redskin DST on Monday to possibly make the playoffs. I'll post a blog on Tuesday telling about my trip and how week 9 turned out.
Thursday, October 30
free agent bidding
Sometimes being clever will hurt you, and this week it caught up to me again. I had control over the free agent bidding in the league this week, and I took advantage of it by getting the wr's and rb's I wanted, some of whom will be starting for me. I got Avery, M.Moore, E.Royal and M.Morris. I dropped Royal last week since he was on bye figuring I could pick him up this week. That worked, but the other "player" I did that for, didn't work out.
Last week I dropped Pittsburg's D since I wasn't playing them and needed a roster spot. I figured I would pick them up this week. I bid 4 on them, which is more than any playoff contender could spend. However, the 5th place team picked them up for $11. Not a big deal to me, because they don't have great matchups in the coming weeks. However, I didn't plan for this, so I dropped the better of my 2 defenses, arizona, and am now stuck with Washington the rest of the year. I will have to pick up a second defense, since Washington is off next week. Oops.
Arizona has very good match-ups coming up, but they really don't hold any teams below 17 because of Warner's turnovers, so I didn't mind dropping them. However, it's a better option than Washington.
You win some and you lose some. My gambler mentality may end up biting me. We'll see.
Last week I dropped Pittsburg's D since I wasn't playing them and needed a roster spot. I figured I would pick them up this week. I bid 4 on them, which is more than any playoff contender could spend. However, the 5th place team picked them up for $11. Not a big deal to me, because they don't have great matchups in the coming weeks. However, I didn't plan for this, so I dropped the better of my 2 defenses, arizona, and am now stuck with Washington the rest of the year. I will have to pick up a second defense, since Washington is off next week. Oops.
Arizona has very good match-ups coming up, but they really don't hold any teams below 17 because of Warner's turnovers, so I didn't mind dropping them. However, it's a better option than Washington.
You win some and you lose some. My gambler mentality may end up biting me. We'll see.
Wednesday, October 29
Playoff Scenarios
I've done the math, and here are the playoff scenarios for each team and what they need to make the top 2 for league #163:
OPT18:
1> win vs GoPackGo OR
2> loss to GoPackGo, finish top 5, Desperado's lose at least 1 game OR
3> loss to GoPackGo by less than 8.14 points and both finish in top/bottom 5
4> finish 0-2, CC's goes 1-1, and scores 28.7 more points than CC's
CC's Desperado's
1> finish 2-0, OPT beats GoPackGo, or GoPackGo beats OPT and one of the two don't score 28.7 more points
2> finish 1-1, GoPackGo finishes 0-2 or 1-1 and doesn't out score CC's by 36.21 or more points
3> finish 1-1, OPT goes 0-2 and doesn't out score CC's by 28.7 or more points
GoPackGo
1> beat OPT18 by 8.14 or more points
2> go 2-0 and CC's loses at least 1 game
3> lose to OPT18, finish top 5, CC's goes 0-2 or 1-1 but out scored by GoPackGo by 36.21 or more
Cinncy Tradition
1> go 2-0, both CC's and GoPackGo go 0-2, out score CC's by 32.77, not out scored by Reston by 67.21
Reston TurfHogs
1> go 2-0, both CC's and GoPackGo go 0-2, out score CC's by 99.97, Cinncy not 2-0 or out score Cinncy by 67.21
Essentially it's a 3 team race with my match-up vs OPT18 a major factor. Tomorrow after the bidding period ends, I'll evaluate the league's feature match up in week 9.
OPT18:
1> win vs GoPackGo OR
2> loss to GoPackGo, finish top 5, Desperado's lose at least 1 game OR
3> loss to GoPackGo by less than 8.14 points and both finish in top/bottom 5
4> finish 0-2, CC's goes 1-1, and scores 28.7 more points than CC's
CC's Desperado's
1> finish 2-0, OPT beats GoPackGo, or GoPackGo beats OPT and one of the two don't score 28.7 more points
2> finish 1-1, GoPackGo finishes 0-2 or 1-1 and doesn't out score CC's by 36.21 or more points
3> finish 1-1, OPT goes 0-2 and doesn't out score CC's by 28.7 or more points
GoPackGo
1> beat OPT18 by 8.14 or more points
2> go 2-0 and CC's loses at least 1 game
3> lose to OPT18, finish top 5, CC's goes 0-2 or 1-1 but out scored by GoPackGo by 36.21 or more
Cinncy Tradition
1> go 2-0, both CC's and GoPackGo go 0-2, out score CC's by 32.77, not out scored by Reston by 67.21
Reston TurfHogs
1> go 2-0, both CC's and GoPackGo go 0-2, out score CC's by 99.97, Cinncy not 2-0 or out score Cinncy by 67.21
Essentially it's a 3 team race with my match-up vs OPT18 a major factor. Tomorrow after the bidding period ends, I'll evaluate the league's feature match up in week 9.
Tuesday, October 28
Roster dilemma
Normally, I go with my own thoughts and instincts, but my mind has been spinning this week and I do not know what to do. I will allow my peers to offer up advice on what to do with my roster, as I have so many marginal players that I am not sure who to keep and who to cut. I am currently tied for 2nd and play the first place team this week. If I win my match by at least 10 points, I move on to the finals. Simple as that. I can make it other ways, but this is the easiest.
Roster as is: QB - Romo, Warner, B.Johnson, Edwards, Pennington, Collins
RB - Gore (bye), J.Jones, Hightower, Dunn, Ke. Smith
WR - Chambers (bye), Walter, De. Henderson (bye), Breaston
TE - Witten (injured)
K - K.Brown
Def - Arizona, Washington
I basically have control of the free agents this week, so here are the pickups I am definitely doing:
Derek Anderson for Brad Johnson
Mewelde Moore for Kerry Collins
Donnie Avery or Eddie Royal for Devry Henderson
Pittsburgh for Washington
Maurice Morris for BJGE
D.Lee/J.Carlson for Tim Hightower (or another rb)
I should most likely get a 2nd kicker. I am leaning towards giving up the good match-ups with the arizona defense and just playing pittsburgh the rest of the way even though they play tougher teams. I also could use more depth at rb and wr.
Some possible free agents are Justin Fargas, Ricky Williams, Kevin Faulk, Cedric Benson, Greg Camarillo, Reggie Williams, Rashied Davis, Donnie Avery, Justin Gage, Reggie Brown, Isaac Bruce, Matt Jones (suspension?). Who will help me most between these free agents and guys like Warrick Dunn, Kevin Smith, Tim Hightower, Chad Pennington, Trent Edwards?
The reason I am picking up DAnderson (also thought about Flacco) is because the guy I am playing only has Orlovsky at qb. Other FA qbs are Anderson, Flacco, Wallace, Thigpen and Fitzpatrick. I picked up Collins yesterday so I could cut him this week and block another QB from my opponent. Cleveland has been good at home and Baltimore does not pass much, so if my opponent gets Flacco, I am not too concerned.
With Gore on bye, I plan on starting M.Morris and Moore at RB. Hightower does not get enough touches, so that is why I plan on cutting him. Dunn was hot for a while, but is currently banged up. Cedric Benson has bad matchups the next 4-5 weeks. Fargas is my other option to pick up and start this week. Julius Jones is in Holmgrens dog house, but I plan on keeping him along with Morris so I will have at least 1 starting rb to go with Gore after this week. Any opinions, suggestions on what I should do? I am leaning towards adding Camarillo as I feel you need a surprise player to get hot in order to separate yourself from other teams. I appreciate any/all input.
Roster as is: QB - Romo, Warner, B.Johnson, Edwards, Pennington, Collins
RB - Gore (bye), J.Jones, Hightower, Dunn, Ke. Smith
WR - Chambers (bye), Walter, De. Henderson (bye), Breaston
TE - Witten (injured)
K - K.Brown
Def - Arizona, Washington
I basically have control of the free agents this week, so here are the pickups I am definitely doing:
Derek Anderson for Brad Johnson
Mewelde Moore for Kerry Collins
Donnie Avery or Eddie Royal for Devry Henderson
Pittsburgh for Washington
Maurice Morris for BJGE
D.Lee/J.Carlson for Tim Hightower (or another rb)
I should most likely get a 2nd kicker. I am leaning towards giving up the good match-ups with the arizona defense and just playing pittsburgh the rest of the way even though they play tougher teams. I also could use more depth at rb and wr.
Some possible free agents are Justin Fargas, Ricky Williams, Kevin Faulk, Cedric Benson, Greg Camarillo, Reggie Williams, Rashied Davis, Donnie Avery, Justin Gage, Reggie Brown, Isaac Bruce, Matt Jones (suspension?). Who will help me most between these free agents and guys like Warrick Dunn, Kevin Smith, Tim Hightower, Chad Pennington, Trent Edwards?
The reason I am picking up DAnderson (also thought about Flacco) is because the guy I am playing only has Orlovsky at qb. Other FA qbs are Anderson, Flacco, Wallace, Thigpen and Fitzpatrick. I picked up Collins yesterday so I could cut him this week and block another QB from my opponent. Cleveland has been good at home and Baltimore does not pass much, so if my opponent gets Flacco, I am not too concerned.
With Gore on bye, I plan on starting M.Morris and Moore at RB. Hightower does not get enough touches, so that is why I plan on cutting him. Dunn was hot for a while, but is currently banged up. Cedric Benson has bad matchups the next 4-5 weeks. Fargas is my other option to pick up and start this week. Julius Jones is in Holmgrens dog house, but I plan on keeping him along with Morris so I will have at least 1 starting rb to go with Gore after this week. Any opinions, suggestions on what I should do? I am leaning towards adding Camarillo as I feel you need a surprise player to get hot in order to separate yourself from other teams. I appreciate any/all input.
Monday, October 27
game of inches
I don't know what's worse...getting blown out or getting teased only to end up with the same losing result? Going into tonight's game, I assumed that I would not stay in the top 5 and go 0-2. As the game unfolded, the Titans controlled the clock and Reggie Wayne was silent, so I had a chance. When Tennessee went up 17-14 mid way thru the 4th quarter, I had some breathing room to work with. Tennessee then took a few minutes off the clock and drove for a TD with 6 minutes left to go up 24-14. At this point, Wayne only had 2 or 3 points and Manning had about 10 and Vinatieri just 2. I wasn't around a computer, but I figured even if Manning gets a lot of garbage yards against a prevent defense, I'll be OK even if he throws a TD pass, as long as Wayne didn't get a lot of the yards.
After one first down, Manning throws an int, and I think I have it in the bag. Under 4 minutes to play, and I'm ahead by about 8. Unfortunately, Tennessee scored on the first play, so only 16 seconds got used up. Now Manning could probably give Marauders the lead on yards alone. Being up by 17, I didn't think Tennessee's D would put up much of a fight.
They let Manning dink and dunk, and fortunately, Wayne wasn't getting any of the yards. There was also about 20 yards gained on running plays, so I figured even with a TD pass I might be OK. At the 2 minute warning, I decide to leave the bar and listen in my car.
Indy gets down inside the 10 with 90 seconds left. A TD pass will make it a very close game. On 2nd down, they complete a swing pass and Rhodes gets to the 2. Then they run the ball and Boomer says that Rhodes got in the end zone. I feel I clinched 5th place, so I cheer. Then he says they didn't rule him in and that if he only extended the ball a few inches, he would of had a TD. UGHHHHHHHH I knew what was coming next...a qb sneak.
Sure enough...Peyton sneaks it in and my hopes are dashed. When I get home, I check the live scoring just to be sure I lost. Yep...final score is 111.86 to my 105.82. I then do the math, to see if I would have won if Rhodes would have scored...Peyton got 6 for the TD and .1 for the yard rushing. Take away the 6.1 and Marauders score is 105.76...I would have won by 6 tenths of a point! That six tenths of a point would have allowed me to seal a playoff spot with a victory next week.
Now I'm going to need help. I sit at 12-4 tied for 2nd, but trail that team in points by 37, so even if I go 2-0, I'll have to beat Desperado's by 37 points to win that tie breaker. I play the 11-3 team, so I can also make it if I beat him and either he doesn't finish in the top 5 and I do, or I out score him by 4.3 points (Dallas Clark's big game gave him the lead over me in points). I basically control my own destiny, but it would be a lot easier if I only had to win my match next week and not worry about anything else.
Is it too late to review Rhodes run to see if he crossed the goal line?
After one first down, Manning throws an int, and I think I have it in the bag. Under 4 minutes to play, and I'm ahead by about 8. Unfortunately, Tennessee scored on the first play, so only 16 seconds got used up. Now Manning could probably give Marauders the lead on yards alone. Being up by 17, I didn't think Tennessee's D would put up much of a fight.
They let Manning dink and dunk, and fortunately, Wayne wasn't getting any of the yards. There was also about 20 yards gained on running plays, so I figured even with a TD pass I might be OK. At the 2 minute warning, I decide to leave the bar and listen in my car.
Indy gets down inside the 10 with 90 seconds left. A TD pass will make it a very close game. On 2nd down, they complete a swing pass and Rhodes gets to the 2. Then they run the ball and Boomer says that Rhodes got in the end zone. I feel I clinched 5th place, so I cheer. Then he says they didn't rule him in and that if he only extended the ball a few inches, he would of had a TD. UGHHHHHHHH I knew what was coming next...a qb sneak.
Sure enough...Peyton sneaks it in and my hopes are dashed. When I get home, I check the live scoring just to be sure I lost. Yep...final score is 111.86 to my 105.82. I then do the math, to see if I would have won if Rhodes would have scored...Peyton got 6 for the TD and .1 for the yard rushing. Take away the 6.1 and Marauders score is 105.76...I would have won by 6 tenths of a point! That six tenths of a point would have allowed me to seal a playoff spot with a victory next week.
Now I'm going to need help. I sit at 12-4 tied for 2nd, but trail that team in points by 37, so even if I go 2-0, I'll have to beat Desperado's by 37 points to win that tie breaker. I play the 11-3 team, so I can also make it if I beat him and either he doesn't finish in the top 5 and I do, or I out score him by 4.3 points (Dallas Clark's big game gave him the lead over me in points). I basically control my own destiny, but it would be a lot easier if I only had to win my match next week and not worry about anything else.
Is it too late to review Rhodes run to see if he crossed the goal line?
Dramatics
Oh what a week it was. Most went as predicted, however my 'sure thing' of finishing in the top 5 is in serious doubt. If I fall out of the top 5, then I will be in a must win situation next week. One of the 10-4 teams went 0-2 to eliminate himself, so now it's a 3 team race with 1 week and 1 game to go.
The team I picked to win the league, CC's Desperados, went 2-0 (assuming Chris Johnson and Rob Bironas combine for at least 1/2 point) to raise their overall record to 12-4. If I go 0-2, I too will be 0-2. The third team in the race (OPT) will also go 2-0 taking first place back over with a 11-3 record.
Next week, I play OPT, so I must defeat them. It's very possible that all 3 teams will end up 13-5 and then it will come down to points. Right now, CC has a 40-50 point cushion. One thing I have going for me is that OPT will be without Brees, Bush and Colston. His only other QB is Orlovsky and he only has 3 FA dollars left. I am going to make sure he doesn't get to pick up a decent QB. Desperado's plays pistols, which is an active team, so he's not guaranteed to win.
I'll give an official standings and point situation after tonight's game.
As for staying in the top 5...I'm currently 4th, but as stated earlier, Desperado's will pass me. That leaves one team (Marauders) who has a good chance to pass me knocking me down to 5th. I am currently 20.88 points ahead of him/her and I have nobody playing tonight. Marauders has Manning, Wayne and Vinatieri. I need Tennessee to show the nation why they are undefeated and have one of the leagues best defenses! I give myself a 40% chance of staying in the top 5. If I do, then a win against OPT next will will guarantee me a spot in the finals and if I lose, I can still make it if Desperado's takes a fall.
The team I picked to win the league, CC's Desperados, went 2-0 (assuming Chris Johnson and Rob Bironas combine for at least 1/2 point) to raise their overall record to 12-4. If I go 0-2, I too will be 0-2. The third team in the race (OPT) will also go 2-0 taking first place back over with a 11-3 record.
Next week, I play OPT, so I must defeat them. It's very possible that all 3 teams will end up 13-5 and then it will come down to points. Right now, CC has a 40-50 point cushion. One thing I have going for me is that OPT will be without Brees, Bush and Colston. His only other QB is Orlovsky and he only has 3 FA dollars left. I am going to make sure he doesn't get to pick up a decent QB. Desperado's plays pistols, which is an active team, so he's not guaranteed to win.
I'll give an official standings and point situation after tonight's game.
As for staying in the top 5...I'm currently 4th, but as stated earlier, Desperado's will pass me. That leaves one team (Marauders) who has a good chance to pass me knocking me down to 5th. I am currently 20.88 points ahead of him/her and I have nobody playing tonight. Marauders has Manning, Wayne and Vinatieri. I need Tennessee to show the nation why they are undefeated and have one of the leagues best defenses! I give myself a 40% chance of staying in the top 5. If I do, then a win against OPT next will will guarantee me a spot in the finals and if I lose, I can still make it if Desperado's takes a fall.
Friday, October 24
Week 8 match-up vs CC's Desperado's
As stated in previous posts, CC's is the team I feel is the strongest in the league and my pick to win the league. They are currently 10-4 and in 3rd place so I have a chance to hurt their chances of playing me in week 10 so it's a big week.
QB - I have Kurt Warner as my bust qb this week, but I am still starting him because he gives me the biggest upside. My other options are Brad Johnson and Chad Pennington.
GoPackGo - Kurt Warner (7) and Trent Edwards (15)
CC's Desperados - Matt Schaub (17) and Matt Cassell (10)
ADVANTAGE: CC's Desperados
RB - Even though Julius Jones has a good match-up (SF), I went with my gut and picked up BenJarvis Green-Ellis to start as my 2nd rb. Bellicheck has been running the ball a lot since Brady went down and with Morris and Maroney out, BJGE could have his FFL breakout. I also wonder if CC will start Chris Johnson instead of Jacobs because of the better match-up. I hope he doesn't read this and change.
GoPackGo - Frank Gore (22) and BJGE (7)
CC's Desperados - Marion Barber (14) and Brandon Jacobs (5)
Advantage: GoPackGo
WR - My weakest position and any of my receivers could have a big week or get shut out, so it's a real crap shoot. I think Brees will have a monster game, so I like having Henderson this week. Desperados could get a big shot in the arm with the possible return of Anquan Boldin.
GoPackGo - Kevin Walter (9), Devry Henderson (14) and Steve Breaston (4)
CC's Desperados - Randy Moss (13), Anquan Boldin (7) and Roddy White (12)
Advantage: CC's Desperados
TE - Dustin Keller has the talent and Favre usually likes his tight ends, but for some reason Keller has been very silent this year.
GoPackGo - Jason Witten (6)
CC's Desperados - Dustin Keller (2)
Advantage: GoPackGo
K - This position is often guess work. My theory is to take a kicker with a good offense that either has a poor running game or is against a good, not great defense. That's what leads to field goals.
GoPackGo - Kris Brown (5)
CC's Desperados - Rob Bironas (14)
Advantage: CC's Desperados
Def - I dropped the 5th best defense (Pit) to go with a better match-up this week. The Redskins are on the road, but the Lions haven't shown the ability to score against anyone. CC's has the best defense in the league (TB), but they are against a strong offense, which will be an interesting match-up. Hopefully Dallas shows why they have the best offense in the NFC.
GoPackGo - Washington (9)
CC's Desperados - Tampa Bay (4)
Advantage: GoPackGo
Unreal. I went thru my predictions and added up the points. The result is a 98-98 tie! This would actually work out good for me in the standings. As long as he doesn't start Chris Johnson instead of Jacobs, I like my chances. I'm relying on Frank Gore and one of my qb's to have a huge game this week.
QB - I have Kurt Warner as my bust qb this week, but I am still starting him because he gives me the biggest upside. My other options are Brad Johnson and Chad Pennington.
GoPackGo - Kurt Warner (7) and Trent Edwards (15)
CC's Desperados - Matt Schaub (17) and Matt Cassell (10)
ADVANTAGE: CC's Desperados
RB - Even though Julius Jones has a good match-up (SF), I went with my gut and picked up BenJarvis Green-Ellis to start as my 2nd rb. Bellicheck has been running the ball a lot since Brady went down and with Morris and Maroney out, BJGE could have his FFL breakout. I also wonder if CC will start Chris Johnson instead of Jacobs because of the better match-up. I hope he doesn't read this and change.
GoPackGo - Frank Gore (22) and BJGE (7)
CC's Desperados - Marion Barber (14) and Brandon Jacobs (5)
Advantage: GoPackGo
WR - My weakest position and any of my receivers could have a big week or get shut out, so it's a real crap shoot. I think Brees will have a monster game, so I like having Henderson this week. Desperados could get a big shot in the arm with the possible return of Anquan Boldin.
GoPackGo - Kevin Walter (9), Devry Henderson (14) and Steve Breaston (4)
CC's Desperados - Randy Moss (13), Anquan Boldin (7) and Roddy White (12)
Advantage: CC's Desperados
TE - Dustin Keller has the talent and Favre usually likes his tight ends, but for some reason Keller has been very silent this year.
GoPackGo - Jason Witten (6)
CC's Desperados - Dustin Keller (2)
Advantage: GoPackGo
K - This position is often guess work. My theory is to take a kicker with a good offense that either has a poor running game or is against a good, not great defense. That's what leads to field goals.
GoPackGo - Kris Brown (5)
CC's Desperados - Rob Bironas (14)
Advantage: CC's Desperados
Def - I dropped the 5th best defense (Pit) to go with a better match-up this week. The Redskins are on the road, but the Lions haven't shown the ability to score against anyone. CC's has the best defense in the league (TB), but they are against a strong offense, which will be an interesting match-up. Hopefully Dallas shows why they have the best offense in the NFC.
GoPackGo - Washington (9)
CC's Desperados - Tampa Bay (4)
Advantage: GoPackGo
Unreal. I went thru my predictions and added up the points. The result is a 98-98 tie! This would actually work out good for me in the standings. As long as he doesn't start Chris Johnson instead of Jacobs, I like my chances. I'm relying on Frank Gore and one of my qb's to have a huge game this week.
Thursday, October 23
Using the System
This week I decided to start playing a juggling act with my roster. As stated in a previous post, I pretty much control the free agent bidding in my league as the active owners all have less than $10 left and I have over $50. Therefor, I decided to roll the dice and drop some good players this week. My intention was to get lesser talent players who have a better match-up this week, and then next week, I can pick up the good players again since nobody will out bid me.
1> I dropped my 3rd round pick Derek Anderson in favor of Chad Pennington. Pennington has been solid and has games in the next few weeks against Seattle, Denver and Oakland. If Anderson gets hot, I can pick him up again since his upside is greater than other qb's I have (B.johnson and T.edwards)
2> I dropped the Steelers defense. They are the 5th highest scoring defense. However, the only good match-up they have coming up is week 12 against Cincinnati. I will most likely go with Pitt and Arizona on my final roster. However, I picked up Washington for this week since they play at Detroit, which I consider as a favorable match-up.
3> I also dropped the 5th rated kicker...Mason Crosby. He is on bye this week and I wanted an extra roster spot for Kevin Smith, as my rb's are weak and will be really thin next week with Gore on bye. I will pick Crosby back up next week when I set my final roster.
4> I almost did the same swap by picking up Antonio Bryant and dropping eddie Royal. Bryant could have a very big week, but I didn't think I'd start him, so I didn't pick him up. I thought about picking him up just to lock other teams from getting him. Then next week, I'd pick Royal back up and drop my weakest remaining WR. I chose not to do this and one of my rivals got Bryant. Hopefully this non-move doesn't hurt me.
I'm sure teams will learn from this year, and save their FA dollars next year. Are other leagues in the same position as mine, with most owners spending most of their money already? I never saw a free agent worthy of a high bid, so I usually just picked up $1 players after the free agent bidding to try and improve my roster. That's why I have a lot of money left over now and can pick and choose who I want. I thought I was going to grab Pierre Thomas this week, but with McCallister healthy, Thomas isn't guaranteed touches so I went with Smith instead who has more upside.
1> I dropped my 3rd round pick Derek Anderson in favor of Chad Pennington. Pennington has been solid and has games in the next few weeks against Seattle, Denver and Oakland. If Anderson gets hot, I can pick him up again since his upside is greater than other qb's I have (B.johnson and T.edwards)
2> I dropped the Steelers defense. They are the 5th highest scoring defense. However, the only good match-up they have coming up is week 12 against Cincinnati. I will most likely go with Pitt and Arizona on my final roster. However, I picked up Washington for this week since they play at Detroit, which I consider as a favorable match-up.
3> I also dropped the 5th rated kicker...Mason Crosby. He is on bye this week and I wanted an extra roster spot for Kevin Smith, as my rb's are weak and will be really thin next week with Gore on bye. I will pick Crosby back up next week when I set my final roster.
4> I almost did the same swap by picking up Antonio Bryant and dropping eddie Royal. Bryant could have a very big week, but I didn't think I'd start him, so I didn't pick him up. I thought about picking him up just to lock other teams from getting him. Then next week, I'd pick Royal back up and drop my weakest remaining WR. I chose not to do this and one of my rivals got Bryant. Hopefully this non-move doesn't hurt me.
I'm sure teams will learn from this year, and save their FA dollars next year. Are other leagues in the same position as mine, with most owners spending most of their money already? I never saw a free agent worthy of a high bid, so I usually just picked up $1 players after the free agent bidding to try and improve my roster. That's why I have a lot of money left over now and can pick and choose who I want. I thought I was going to grab Pierre Thomas this week, but with McCallister healthy, Thomas isn't guaranteed touches so I went with Smith instead who has more upside.
Wednesday, October 22
Week 8 - sleepers/busts
SLEEPERS:
QB - Marc Bulger - A one time must-start in FFL, Bulger is now a backup at best. Steven Jackson is banged up and the New England defense is banged up even more. I look for St Louis to attack through the air and look for Bulger to have 270+ yds and at least 2 tds
RB - Fred Taylor - Cleveland is in disarray right now and you can run off-tackle against them. Coming off the bye week, the ageless one should have fresh legs and over 100 yards with a TD
WR - Kevin Curtis - Donavan McNabb finally gets one of his favorite targets back. With Westbrook still banged up, look for Curtis to see a lot of action.
TE - Zach Miller - Baltimore still has a sold defense with a good pass rush. Oakland lacks wr's who can get open, so Russell will be forced to dump off a lot of passes. Look for Zach to get 5-8 catches this week.
K - Nate Kaeding - It's going to be a shootout, so the kickers will score a lot too
DEF - Philadelphia - Jim Johnson loves to blitz and confuse qb's...especially rookie qb's. This will be a true test to see how advanced Matt Ryan is in the learning process.
BUSTS
QB Kurt Warner - Having another great year, but is still hit with the turnover bug too often. Especially on the road against teams with a pass rush. Don't be surprised if you see Matt Leinart in this game
RB Dominic Rhodes - He had a decent debut as a starter in Addai's absence with 2 td's last week. However, he runs into a brick wall this week named Albert Haynesworth. He had a low average per carry last week and this week he'll be even lower with less touches.
WR - Terrell Owens - He misses his quarterback (wipes a tear away). Tampa's cover 2 will prevent the big play, so in order for Owens to be productive, he'll have to catch 10+ passes. Possible but highly unlikely.
TE - Owen Daniels - After a monster game against Detroit, this former Badger won't go unnoticed this week. He'll give you OK production for a TE, but probably only 3-5 points.
K - Sebastian Janikoski - Great 57 yarder to win the game last week, but he won't be able to get any points from the sideline this week. I don't see Oakland scoring more than once, so look for 1-3 points out of the vodka connoisseur
DEF - San Diego/New Orleans - I look for each team to score over 24 points this week in a shootout. It's possible they may give you a special teams TD, but if you lose points for yards/points allowed, stay away from these 2
QB - Marc Bulger - A one time must-start in FFL, Bulger is now a backup at best. Steven Jackson is banged up and the New England defense is banged up even more. I look for St Louis to attack through the air and look for Bulger to have 270+ yds and at least 2 tds
RB - Fred Taylor - Cleveland is in disarray right now and you can run off-tackle against them. Coming off the bye week, the ageless one should have fresh legs and over 100 yards with a TD
WR - Kevin Curtis - Donavan McNabb finally gets one of his favorite targets back. With Westbrook still banged up, look for Curtis to see a lot of action.
TE - Zach Miller - Baltimore still has a sold defense with a good pass rush. Oakland lacks wr's who can get open, so Russell will be forced to dump off a lot of passes. Look for Zach to get 5-8 catches this week.
K - Nate Kaeding - It's going to be a shootout, so the kickers will score a lot too
DEF - Philadelphia - Jim Johnson loves to blitz and confuse qb's...especially rookie qb's. This will be a true test to see how advanced Matt Ryan is in the learning process.
BUSTS
QB Kurt Warner - Having another great year, but is still hit with the turnover bug too often. Especially on the road against teams with a pass rush. Don't be surprised if you see Matt Leinart in this game
RB Dominic Rhodes - He had a decent debut as a starter in Addai's absence with 2 td's last week. However, he runs into a brick wall this week named Albert Haynesworth. He had a low average per carry last week and this week he'll be even lower with less touches.
WR - Terrell Owens - He misses his quarterback (wipes a tear away). Tampa's cover 2 will prevent the big play, so in order for Owens to be productive, he'll have to catch 10+ passes. Possible but highly unlikely.
TE - Owen Daniels - After a monster game against Detroit, this former Badger won't go unnoticed this week. He'll give you OK production for a TE, but probably only 3-5 points.
K - Sebastian Janikoski - Great 57 yarder to win the game last week, but he won't be able to get any points from the sideline this week. I don't see Oakland scoring more than once, so look for 1-3 points out of the vodka connoisseur
DEF - San Diego/New Orleans - I look for each team to score over 24 points this week in a shootout. It's possible they may give you a special teams TD, but if you lose points for yards/points allowed, stay away from these 2
Standings
The next two weeks, I control my own fate to make the playoffs. I have a 2 game lead with 4 games to go and I play two of the 3 teams chasing me for the two playoff spots. This week I face the team which I predicted to win the league and still feel is the strongest team in the league..CC's Desperados.
With 4 dead teams in the league, I am confident that my team will finish in the top 5 each of the last 2 weeks, so in my head, I just need one h2h win or one loss by both CC's and Cinncy Tradition to make the playoffs. The second place team, OPT18 struggled to an 0-2 finish last week and now has Reggie Bush's injury to deal with. I play him/her week 9.
My team has injuries of it's own with my top qb (Romo) and top wr (Chambers) on the shelf. I would like to clinch a playoff spot this week, so I can start molding my roster for week 10 and the subsequent eliminator rounds.
Someone in the FFOC forums brought up an interesting question last week when he asked how people planned on organizing their final roster for the run to Vegas. If I make the playoffs, I will dedicate a post to all the decisions that went in to my final roster.
With 4 dead teams in the league, I am confident that my team will finish in the top 5 each of the last 2 weeks, so in my head, I just need one h2h win or one loss by both CC's and Cinncy Tradition to make the playoffs. The second place team, OPT18 struggled to an 0-2 finish last week and now has Reggie Bush's injury to deal with. I play him/her week 9.
My team has injuries of it's own with my top qb (Romo) and top wr (Chambers) on the shelf. I would like to clinch a playoff spot this week, so I can start molding my roster for week 10 and the subsequent eliminator rounds.
Someone in the FFOC forums brought up an interesting question last week when he asked how people planned on organizing their final roster for the run to Vegas. If I make the playoffs, I will dedicate a post to all the decisions that went in to my final roster.
Monday, October 20
week 7 results
Rosie Perez said in "White Men Can't Jump" that "...sometimes when you win, you really lose and sometimes when you lose, you really win. And sometimes you just tie." This week, I took my first h2h loss, but in the grand scheme, I won this week.
Going into tonight, I have the second most points in the league and I only see 1 team that can pass me, so I'll go 1-1. The team I was tied with at 11-1 will lose both unless Matt Prater scores over 24 points, so that's not going to happen. One of the teams tied at 8-4 will go 1-1 or 0-2, so my magic number got smaller even though I lost my heads up match.
I was out of town much of the weekend and returned home Sunday afternoon. I went online at halftime of the noon game to see how I was doing in my much anticipated match with Cincy Tradition. Mewelde Moore had 2 td's and my other big pickup, Trent Edwards, was having a good game for the team, but nothing spectacular for me since he wasn't getting the touchdowns. When I first looked at the score, I was down by 7-12 points which wasn't bad considering I had 3 more players yet to play than he did.
After the noon games, he had a 17 point lead with a qb and wr yet to play. I had a qb, 2 wr and my kicker left. Mid way through the 3rd quarter of the 3 pm games, I peaked at the scores to see if I was gaining any ground. I saw I was still down by about 8, which wasn't bad. In the next few minutes as I went to some gamecasts, my hope for the upset were squashed. Suddenly Calvin Johnson gets a 96 yard TD and the 2 point conversion to boot. That was an additional 17 points that I'd have to make up and he still had a full game left out of a qb (Garcia).
I went to our league forum to concede the match, when I see the following post from Cincy Tradition:
" Game, set and match becasue of Calvin Johnson. Thanks for playing, who's next?"
I couldn't have said it better myself. It was time to hope I stayed in the top 5 to at least go 1-1. Going into tonight, I still have the second most points for the week and I only see one team who has a chance of passing me, so the 1-1 record is safe.
My first edition of Sleepers/Busts turned out OK. None of the sleepers had a bust game, but a few of my Busts had solid weeks (Tony Gonzalez, Phillip Rivers).
Going into tonight, I have the second most points in the league and I only see 1 team that can pass me, so I'll go 1-1. The team I was tied with at 11-1 will lose both unless Matt Prater scores over 24 points, so that's not going to happen. One of the teams tied at 8-4 will go 1-1 or 0-2, so my magic number got smaller even though I lost my heads up match.
I was out of town much of the weekend and returned home Sunday afternoon. I went online at halftime of the noon game to see how I was doing in my much anticipated match with Cincy Tradition. Mewelde Moore had 2 td's and my other big pickup, Trent Edwards, was having a good game for the team, but nothing spectacular for me since he wasn't getting the touchdowns. When I first looked at the score, I was down by 7-12 points which wasn't bad considering I had 3 more players yet to play than he did.
After the noon games, he had a 17 point lead with a qb and wr yet to play. I had a qb, 2 wr and my kicker left. Mid way through the 3rd quarter of the 3 pm games, I peaked at the scores to see if I was gaining any ground. I saw I was still down by about 8, which wasn't bad. In the next few minutes as I went to some gamecasts, my hope for the upset were squashed. Suddenly Calvin Johnson gets a 96 yard TD and the 2 point conversion to boot. That was an additional 17 points that I'd have to make up and he still had a full game left out of a qb (Garcia).
I went to our league forum to concede the match, when I see the following post from Cincy Tradition:
" Game, set and match becasue of Calvin Johnson. Thanks for playing, who's next?"
I couldn't have said it better myself. It was time to hope I stayed in the top 5 to at least go 1-1. Going into tonight, I still have the second most points for the week and I only see one team who has a chance of passing me, so the 1-1 record is safe.
My first edition of Sleepers/Busts turned out OK. None of the sleepers had a bust game, but a few of my Busts had solid weeks (Tony Gonzalez, Phillip Rivers).
Thursday, October 16
week 7 match-up vs Cincy Tradition
In a game which features a lot of week day trash talk, playoff implications are on the line. A win by Cincy can move them within a game or two of the playoffs. A loss, and he'll have a tough time catching me, so he'll have to hope pistols stumbles the last few weeks.
QB - With my top 2 qb's out this week (Romo and Warner...I realize Romo may play, but I won't start him even if he does), I had to pick up Brad Johnson and Trent Edwards. Johnson is security for Romo and Edwards because of his great match-up this week.
GoPackGo - Derek Anderson (13 points) and Trent Edwards (19 pts)
Cincy - Kyle Orton (15 points) and Jeff Garcia (9 pts)
Advantage: GoPackGo
RB - I made yet another pickup for a starter at this position. Julius Jones has been good for me most of the year, but he will struggle to get yards against Tampa so I picked up Warrick Dunn who has been getting plenty of touches and Mewelde Moore who may start against the Bengals. Gore and Jackson have tough matchups, but both see 20+ touches every game, so they'll still get their points. Brown has been great, but faces a stingy Raven defense.
GoPackGo - Frank Gore (11 points) and Mewelde Moore (13 points)
Cincy - Stephen Jackson (15 pts) and Ronnie Brown (7 points)
Advantage: Draw
WR - The weakest area of my team. Seems like the guys I bench always score more than the ones I start. ADP has a history of destroying the Bears, so I don't see Berrian doing much. However, Burress is still a top 5 ffl receiver and will be tough to stop.
GoPackGo - Kevin Walter (9 points), Eddie Royal (4 points) and Devry Henderson (4 pts)
Cincy - Plaxico Burress (17 points), Calvin Johnson (7 points) and Bernard Berrian (3 points)
Advantage: Cincy
TE - Both teams have stud te's. Cooley hasn't been as good as past years, and Wittens production is a bit unknown since he'll most likely have a new qb throwing to him.
GoPackGo - Jason Witten (7 points)
Cincy - Chris Cooley (8 points)
Advanage: Draw
K - Once again, I plan to make a pick up as it appears Tynes will resume as the Giants kicker. Therefor, I will pick up Kris Brown for Carney since Houston plays the Lions.
GoPackGo - Kris Brown (7 points)
Cincy - Nate Kaeding (4 points)
Advantage: GoPackGo
Def - Both teams defenses face weak offenses on the road. I predict both will hold their opponent under 13 points.
GoPackGo - Pittsburgh (13 points)
Cincy - Tennessee (13 points)
Advantage: Draw
Adding up the predictions, I come up with a predicted score of.....
Cincy Tradition: 98
GoPackGo: 100
The recent lineup change to put in Garcia instead of JT OSullivan gives me the slight advantage for now.
QB - With my top 2 qb's out this week (Romo and Warner...I realize Romo may play, but I won't start him even if he does), I had to pick up Brad Johnson and Trent Edwards. Johnson is security for Romo and Edwards because of his great match-up this week.
GoPackGo - Derek Anderson (13 points) and Trent Edwards (19 pts)
Cincy - Kyle Orton (15 points) and Jeff Garcia (9 pts)
Advantage: GoPackGo
RB - I made yet another pickup for a starter at this position. Julius Jones has been good for me most of the year, but he will struggle to get yards against Tampa so I picked up Warrick Dunn who has been getting plenty of touches and Mewelde Moore who may start against the Bengals. Gore and Jackson have tough matchups, but both see 20+ touches every game, so they'll still get their points. Brown has been great, but faces a stingy Raven defense.
GoPackGo - Frank Gore (11 points) and Mewelde Moore (13 points)
Cincy - Stephen Jackson (15 pts) and Ronnie Brown (7 points)
Advantage: Draw
WR - The weakest area of my team. Seems like the guys I bench always score more than the ones I start. ADP has a history of destroying the Bears, so I don't see Berrian doing much. However, Burress is still a top 5 ffl receiver and will be tough to stop.
GoPackGo - Kevin Walter (9 points), Eddie Royal (4 points) and Devry Henderson (4 pts)
Cincy - Plaxico Burress (17 points), Calvin Johnson (7 points) and Bernard Berrian (3 points)
Advantage: Cincy
TE - Both teams have stud te's. Cooley hasn't been as good as past years, and Wittens production is a bit unknown since he'll most likely have a new qb throwing to him.
GoPackGo - Jason Witten (7 points)
Cincy - Chris Cooley (8 points)
Advanage: Draw
K - Once again, I plan to make a pick up as it appears Tynes will resume as the Giants kicker. Therefor, I will pick up Kris Brown for Carney since Houston plays the Lions.
GoPackGo - Kris Brown (7 points)
Cincy - Nate Kaeding (4 points)
Advantage: GoPackGo
Def - Both teams defenses face weak offenses on the road. I predict both will hold their opponent under 13 points.
GoPackGo - Pittsburgh (13 points)
Cincy - Tennessee (13 points)
Advantage: Draw
Adding up the predictions, I come up with a predicted score of.....
Cincy Tradition: 98
GoPackGo: 100
The recent lineup change to put in Garcia instead of JT OSullivan gives me the slight advantage for now.
week 7
Each Thursday, I'll submit my sleeper FFL starters at each position. Players who are started in less than 75% of the leagues, but have a chance to put up some big numbers. I'll also list fantasy busts at each position. Players with bad match-ups who will perorm much worse than normal.SLEEPERS:
QB - Trent Edwards (Buf) - San Diego has a very weak secondary which sometimes gets covered up by a good pass rush. Being on the road and having to travel cross county, should slow down the pass rush of the Chargers giving Trent Edwards and his talented WR's plenty of time to carve up the suspect secondary.
RB - Jonathan Stewart (Car) - Not a huge sleeper, but he hasn't reached "must start" status yet. The Panthers will look to rebound from a disappointing loss to Tampa last week. The key to doing so is establishing the power running game. New Orleans gives up 4.4 yds/carry, so look for Stewart to have a big game.
WR - Anthony Gonzalez (Ind) - The Packers defense is banged up and Manning appears to be getting back into his pro-bowl groove. Harrison erupted last week with a big game, which will allow Gonzalez to fly under the radar. He should see single coverage from a nickel back, which is a huge advantage for Indy.
TE - Desmond Clark (Chi) - It's hard to run against Minnesota, so Kyle Orton will be asked to win with his arm. A good pass rush combined with the lack of good WR's for Chicago should mean plenty of dump off passes for Orton.
K - Jay Feely (NYJ) - This is assuming that Nugent is still not healthy enough to kick. The Jets offense has been moving the ball, and Oakland's D is usually pretty stiff at home. Look for the Jets to get a lot of yards, but not many TD's.
Def - Houston - The Lions offense has been inept all year, and now without Kitna and Williams, their two biggest weapons, look for them to struggle even more. Dan Orlovsky...meet Mario Williams.
BUSTS:
QB - Phillip Rivers(SD) - Buffalo is very stingy at home. Don't expect a lot of points out of the Chargers this week
RB - Matt Forte(Chi) - Chicago hasn't run the ball as well as they did the first 2 weeks, and they haven't seen a run defense like Minnesota's. Look for Forte to be held under 50 yds this week.
WR - Roy Williams (Dal) - His Dallas debut will be overshadowed by a heavy dose of Marion Barber. Williams won't know many plays, and Johnson is more of a dink and dunk passer. I wouldn't expect a fantasy impact from Williams until at least week 9.
TE - Tony Gonzalez (KC) - Disappointed that he didn't get traded this week, my guess is that he won't have as much focus as normal. On top of that, they face a very tough Tennessee defense.
K - Phil Dawson (Cle) - he hasn't done much this year due to the struggles in Cleveland's passing game. I don't expect their Monday night success to carry over this week in Washington.
Def - New Orleans - The mopped up on a weak Oakland team last week, but this week they face a lot more weapons. Look for them to give up a lot of rushing yards and over 24 points.
Tuesday, October 14
Late Start
I'm getting a late start on my FFOC blog, but better late than never. We've just completed week 6, so by now teams know if they are pretenders, contenders, or eliminated. Fortunately, I'm a contender. However, much like the first place Bills and Titans, I haven't beaten anyone.
This week starts the 3 week finale which finds me playing the team tied with me in first, and the two teams which are just 3 games back. In essence, I will control my own playoff destiny. That part I like. The part I don't like is my upcoming week 7 match-up against Cincy Tradition.
I would like nothing more than to burst Ryan's playoff hope bubble, but it won't be easy. I've ridden the success of my qb's so far, and my two best ones(Romo and Warner) are out for week 7. Fortunately, I recognized that this is a QB weighted scoring system and have loaded up at that position, so I have D. Anderson and Pennington available to play this week. There are also some good options on the free agent list, so I plan on picking one of them up to start with Anderson.
Most of the active teams have used up their free agent dollars with crazy bids like:
week 1: 15 on James Hardy and 25 on Kerry Collins
week 2: 73 on Matt Cassell
week 3: 36 on Amani Toomer and 53 on Darren Sproles
I guess you can't take your $100 home with you, but outrageous bids like this just puts your team in a bind in case you get injuries or have bye week troubles. Everyone has their own theories, so I'm not saying mine is correct.
Tomorrow, I'll list some players I like and don't like this week due to match-ups. Hopefully it will help you make some lineup decisions.
This week starts the 3 week finale which finds me playing the team tied with me in first, and the two teams which are just 3 games back. In essence, I will control my own playoff destiny. That part I like. The part I don't like is my upcoming week 7 match-up against Cincy Tradition.
I would like nothing more than to burst Ryan's playoff hope bubble, but it won't be easy. I've ridden the success of my qb's so far, and my two best ones(Romo and Warner) are out for week 7. Fortunately, I recognized that this is a QB weighted scoring system and have loaded up at that position, so I have D. Anderson and Pennington available to play this week. There are also some good options on the free agent list, so I plan on picking one of them up to start with Anderson.
Most of the active teams have used up their free agent dollars with crazy bids like:
week 1: 15 on James Hardy and 25 on Kerry Collins
week 2: 73 on Matt Cassell
week 3: 36 on Amani Toomer and 53 on Darren Sproles
I guess you can't take your $100 home with you, but outrageous bids like this just puts your team in a bind in case you get injuries or have bye week troubles. Everyone has their own theories, so I'm not saying mine is correct.
Tomorrow, I'll list some players I like and don't like this week due to match-ups. Hopefully it will help you make some lineup decisions.
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