Advantage or Disadvantage?

Now that I've completed the last of my 6 FFOC drafts, I keep thinking...is it better to draft early or as late as possible? There are obvious advantages and disadvantages to both. Some people like to wait until after the final pre-season game when depth charts are pretty well set, injuries have occurred and can be accounted for, and hold outs are signed.

I prefer to draft early. I think by drafting early, you can get some great draft bargains which you can't get if you wait until the last week to draft. Last year, I greatly benefited by getting Kurt Warner in round 17 or 18 because I do not feel Matt Leinart will ever be a viable QB in the NFL and Warner was productive in 2007 when he played. If I would have waited to draft until after he was named the starter, he would have gone in the first 5 or 6 rounds.

This year, I waited for the late rounds to get Trent Edwards or Kyle Orton as my #3 QB. I feel both will have very good seasons. After just one pre-season game, Edwards stock has risen and Orton is dropping. My other two late picks which I feel can turn out to be high scoring players this season are Fred Jackson and Jerome Harrison. Jackson isn't as big of a sleeper because everyone knows he'll be starting the first 3 games this season while Lynch serves his suspension. He averaged 4.4 ypc last season and 5.2 the year before. I feel he will excel in the Bills offense, and Lynch will be slowly worked back into the rotation when he returns. Three weeks without full contact does not bode well for Lynch to be successful at all this season. My last late round sleeper who probably isn't being drafted in most leagues is Jermichael Finley. The Packers have been waiting for a pass catching tight end ever since Chmura was arrested. He has the skills to be as good as Tony Gonzalez. He just needs to learn the play book and dedicate himself to football.

The main advantage of waiting as long as possible to draft is that you'll have less dead weight on your roster. You probably won't have a high pick "wasted" on someone who was injured in the 2nd pre-season game. Nor will you have drafted a QB who got beat out in camp. However, you're less like to have late round finds. To win the million, you need more than just 2 or 3 studs to carry you. You need late round steals to become top 10 players at their position to go along with the studs you drafted early.

How about you? Do you prefer to draft early or later?

League 710 draft writeup

Unlike my other leagues, this was a tougher one to judge. There's only one team I don't like and very few stand out above the rest. That means we had a lot of good drafters and the chances of one of our teams to advance far is probably slim since the talent is evenly spread out. Teams are listed in the order they drafted.

1> Man BombWigs - Matt Ryan, Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall, Zach Miller, Kyle Orton, Neil Rackers, Tennessee

Had a very solid draft. Good RB depth. If Orton turns out as good as I think he will, then this team is a legit contender. If not, their strong rb's and wr's may not be enough to make up for the mediocre qb's and lack of WR depth. Prediction: 4th

2> THOR - Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Forte, Marion Barber, Marques Colston, Roy Williams, Tedd Ginn, Kellen Winslow, Eli Manning, Garrett Hartley, Seattle

This is the only team I don't like. I'm warming up to Williams and like Ginn, but this WR corp (also has Hines Ward) doesn't excite me. Big Ben and Eli are steady qb's who rarely have that 25+ point week you need from someone to carry you. The bench is very thin, so unless they get some key pickups, this team is in trouble. Prediction: 10th

3> Growlers - Tony Romo, Michael Turner, Steve Slaton, Roddy White, TJ Houshmanzadah, Bernard Berrian, Owen Daniels, Chad Pennington, Stephen Gostkowski, Pittsburgh

Had a strong start and finish to their draft, but reached a lot in the middle. Took their defense and kicker a few rounds too early (6th and 9th rds) to ensure they got who they felt were the best at that position. Slaton, Turner and White will be enough to carry them most weeks. depth could become an issue due to the reaching for the kicker and defense. Prediction: 3rd

4> Direwolf - Drew Brees, Frank Gore, Julius Jones, Greg Jennings, Wes Welker, Anthony Gonzalez, Greg Olsen, Donovan McNabb, David Akers, Chicago

By far the best starting lineup that I see. Could run into trouble at RB with the aging Jones and part timers Reggie Bush and James Stewart on the bench. However, that's the only weak spot I see as well as depth in general. Prediction: 2nd

5> White Crane xviii - Tom Brady, D'Angelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson, Devin Hester, Dallas Clark, Matt Schaub, John Kasay, Philly

Pretty deep team. Needs some WR's to step up and be consistent starters. Excellent RB depth with the Indy combo, Wells and McCoy. QB's are good enough to keep the team in the race as long as two of their position players have a good week. Prediction: 7th

6> Jager Meister - Aaron Rodgers, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ronnie Brown, Anquan Boldin, Terrell Owens, Santonio Holmes, Tony Gonzalez, Matt Cassel, Ryan Longwell, Minnesota

Of course I like my team. As with most teams in this league, depth is an issue. Matt Cassel is the wild card that will probably determine if this team contends or pretends. Having Fred Jackson or Darren Sproles become an every week starter can help the cause. Prediction: 5th

7> Colts_4 - Kurt Warner, Thomas Jones, Larry Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Derrick Mason, Antonio Gates, Matt Hasselbeck, Nate Kaeding, Baltimore

Has an aging team to go along with the 2 best WR's in football. The odds of Warner and Hasselbeck both staying healthy are slim. I can't guarantee that the old RB's will keep their jobs and put up productive points each week. Lendale White, Chris Chambers and Torry Holt are the only worthy bench players. Prediction: 8th

8> nolencole - Carson Palmer, Chris Johnson, Brandon Jacobs, Randy Moss, DeSean Jackson, Kevin Walter, Chris Cooley, Ryan Grant, Mason Crosby, SD

Has very good rb depth, and will need them as they will most likely have to play 3 rb's each week. Joe Flacco is their only other QB besides Palmer. Bench is terrible so they better hope to stay healthy. That may not even be enough. Prediction: 9th

9> brillian ballplayers - Phillip Rivers, Stephen Jackson, Kevin Smith, Andre Johnson, Chad Johnson, Santana Moss, John Carlson, David Garrard, Jason Elam, Tampa Bay

Deepest team in the league (mcfadden, evans, coctchery, delhomme, lewis/harrison on the bench). The only thing I'd improve is their defense, which isn't a big deal. Yes, it can cost you big time in a really bad week, but more often than not, the defense is irrelevant. RB's have huge upside, but could also go bust in a hurry. I think they have enough options at RB that even if one guy gets hurt/benched, they will survive. Prediction: 1st

10> anarchist5 - Peyton Manning, Ladanian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Dwayne Bowe, Antonio Bryant, Eddie Royal, Jason Witten, Jay Cutler, Rob Bironas, New England

Quite an interesting and unpredictable team. LT and Portis have been studs in the past, but are definitely on the decline. Bryant and Royal have new QB's, so their production is in question. Cutler is in more of a run first scheme now, so his production is also a question mark. I do like the depth with trent edwards, ray rice, earnest graham and donald driver. Prediction: 6th

Draft Personalities

Something I heard on the radio sparked my creative nerve this weekend. It got me to thinking about all the different draft personalities I've run into over the years. I'm sure you'll be able to identify many friends that fall under one or more of these categories. I've come up with 10 different fantasy football draft personalities. Feel free to add more either here or in the FFOC forum thread.

1> "Clueless" - Not only do they often try to draft players who were drafted 5 rounds ago, but every time a non-marquee name gets selected, the say "what team is he on and what does he play?"

2> "ESPN" - They love the highlight reel players who really aren't good fantasy players. They are surprised when guys like Chad Johnson, Reggie Bush and Mike Vick are still around in round 3.


3> "Expert" - They are in 10+ leagues and no player drafted surprises them. They'll often provide novices with snide comments like "Wow. That's early for him. He normally gets drafted in the 8th round."

4> "Homer" - When in doubt, they select someone from their favorite team. All players on their favorite team get bumped up 4 or 5 spots on the rankings. They will usually also avoid picking teams from their rival team at all costs.

5> "Old Timer" - Always think that because a player was great 10 years ago, that they are valuable this year. Happy to get Jerry Rice when he was on the Raiders. Thought Marshall Faulk was still a stud when he only had one healthy knee late in his career. Never drafts a player in anticipation of a breakout year.

6> "Rain Delay" - Unfortunately, I run into far too many of these at my drafts. They him and haw over every pick. Half the time, they don't even realize it's their pick. Sometimes it's alcohol induced and sometimes it's just because they don't know anything. If it weren't for these people, all drafts could be done in 2 hours.

7> "Robot" - They have their favorite magazine and pick solely based on that magazines cheat sheet. There's really no need for them to be at the draft, because you can guess who their pick will be every time.

8> "Stat-man" - They come with plenty of books and spreadsheets. Base their rankings 100% on last years numbers. Will sometimes make comments like "I can't believe you took X before Y. Y scored 2 more TD's than X last year"

9> "Wanna be" - The person who thinks they know it all, but really don't. You'll often hear them say "That's a great pick!" or "That's who I was gonna take" as if it will make that owner think they made a tremendous pick because if "wanna be" was going to take them, it must be a good pick.

10> "Lee Corso" - Go overboard in taking rookies and other young unproven players. Sometimes you have to double check that this is an NFL league and not a college league. They want to look smart because they drafted the rookie of the year, but fail to mention they also drafted 4 young guys who never saw the field.

Draft Strategy

I've been playing Fantasy Football for two decades and though I don't claim to be an expert, my drafting style has won me more money than it has lost. That's all you can ask for, right?

My two main philosophies are:
1> Take the best player available, regardless of position, for the first 8-9 rounds. You can always fill your depth charts and cover bye weeks with your last handful of picks.
The object is to score the most points each week. Therefore, I want to pick the player who will score me the most points. Sounds simple doesn't it? Some people get too caught up in wanting to take a QB before round 4 or not selecting 3 RB's in a row. If RB's are flying off the board and I don't have any RB's, I will not panic and take a James Stewart or Darren McFadden over a top WR like Reggie Wayne or Steve Smith. Granted, the RB selection will be very thin, but why reach and take a RB a few rounds too early when you can get a quality WR who dropped in the draft because everyone chose to take RB's?
2> Be sure to know your scoring system and league rules, and rank the players accordingly
I typically don't take QB's high in the draft because it's the position that has the highest position of injuries/benchings. Even the lower tier QB's typically throw for 200 yds in a game with at least one TD. There are usually only 3 or 4 elite QB's and the rest can be hit or miss each week. RB's and WR's are more consistent and the gap between the good ones and average ones is much greater than the QB position. However, in leagues that offer 6 pts for a TD pass or the FFOC which allows you to start 2 QB's, I will value QB's much more. Most QB's will throw for 16-25 TD's...that more TD's than a stud RB or WR will get you. If a league is PPR, then the RB's who catch a lot of passes (Forte and Westbrook) become much more valuable than the typical top picks (ADP and Turner). One of the biggest variances is kicker and defense scoring. In leagues where a kicker just gets 3 for a FG and 1 for a PAT, I won't take a kicker til my last 2 picks, because they are all basically the same. If you get big bonuses for 50+ yd FG's, then don't take a guy like Jay Feely or Matt Stover who rarely attempt long FG's. But a guy like Jason Hanson or Sebastian Janikowski become much more valuable. For defenses, leagues that reward teams based on points allowed creates a different ranking for leagues that go by yards allowed. In general, the less yards you give up, the less points you're going to give up, but some teams don't follow this pattern at all. For instance, Minnesota and Dallas didn't give up a lot of yards, but their PPG was average or worse. Atlanta and SD gave up a lot of yards, but not many points.

Those are my two main draft strategies. Here are a few other philosophies I go by...right, wrong or indifferent.

- Don't worry about bye weeks unless looking at a 2nd QB or 2nd kicker/Def. So what if your top 4 players have a bye week 7? That's just one week and it means you're at full strength every other week while other teams will be missing players.
- If possible, get a QB-WR/TE combo from the same team. Yes, this can work against you too. Don't reach on a player just to get a mathing combo, but after round 6, most WR's are the same, so try to pair up one of your QB's with their receiver/TE.
- If you draft an injury prone RB (S.Jackson, W.Parker, B.Westbrook), be sure to handcuff them to their backup. Sometimes I'll take the backup a few rounds early, just to be sure I get the handcuff. Once you get to round 7, many of the players are the same talent level, so it won't really hurt you to reach for a backup RB.
- Avoid high risk players. Guys who have a tendency to miss 2+ games each year are to be avoided. I'd rather have a steady player who never gets hurt compared to a guy with more upside, who often misses games due to injury
- Draft players from high scoring teams and avoid players on the 3 or 4 teams you think will be terrible. This year, my teams to avoid are Oakland, Detroit and St Louis. The teams I feel will score a lot are New Orleans, New England, Green Bay and possibly Kansas City.
- When you get to the mid-point of the draft when all the receivers are the same and the RB's are reduced to the backups, don't be afraid to be the first person to take a kicker or defense. If you get the best person/team at that position, you're getting an advantage over your opponents. Same goes for rounds 4 or 5 and tight ends. Once the elite RB's and WR's are gone, I will take a Tony Gonzalez or Jason Witten to get an advantage over my opponent most weeks.
- Avoid rookie WR's and QB's, value rookie RB's. The track record shows that very few rookie QB's or WR's have had success in the league. QB's need to catch up to the speed of the game and WR's need to learn how to run proper routes as they can no longer just rely on their speed and athleticism. Rookie running backs often have success, because their legs are still fresh and they have the burst needed to get through holes quickly. In the last 20 years, the rookie of the year has been a RB 15 times, WR twice and QB 3 times.
- Be aware of off season moves, both by players and coaches. If a team goes from a pass-happy coach to a defensive minded coach, value the rb's a little more and downgrade the QB/WR's. Same goes for a productive WR who goes from a pass first team to a team that doesn't throw as much. It's common sense that teams that throw the ball 65% of the team is worth getting QB's/WR's from. The opposite is true for a team that runs the ball 60% of the time.
- Always trust your instinct. I rarely look at player rankings at other sites. I watch enough football to know which players can play and which ones can't. If you think Marshawn Lynch will have a bad year because of his suspension and taking a while to get into football shape, then don't take him even though some other 'expert' says he's the 10th rated RB and he's still available in round 5. If you think D'Angelo Williams had a big year due to weak competition and won't have the same success this year, then rank him accordingly.

I'm sure I have other rules of thumb that I forgot to mention, but I've rambled on long enough. These philosophies have worked for me and hopefully they can help you. Every drafter has their own theories, and that's fine. These are my personal draft guidelines so if you don't like them, don't use them. Be your own person!

Draft Analysis - league 623

Here's my writeup on my tier 2 draft from July 30th. I've listed the projected starters and my analysis of each team in order of the place we drafted:

1> Lucky Ducks - Jay Cutler, Adrian Peterson, Larry Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings, Jericho Cotchery, Matt Ryan, Tony Gonzalez, NY Giants, Rob Bironas

I like this team a lot. Quarterback could be the Achilles heel for this team. Hard to go wrong with the #1 pick and they got 2 top tier WR's on the way back. They also have the Lynch/F.Jackson combo as well as Cedric Benson, so they may be able to start a RB at flex, but at the very least should have two very good RB matchups each week. They did take a few too many rookies (3) in the reserve round for my liking.
Prediction: 2nd

2> X1 - Drew Brees, Frank Gore, Brandon Jacobs, Terrell Owens, Santonio Holmes, DeSean Jackson, Eli Manning, John Carlson, Washington, Garrett Hartley

This team has good depth (P.Thomas and Sproles) at RB which is always key. As long as the WR's give consistent production and an occasional big week, this team will be in the hunt. Prediction: 4th

3> moneymandetejas - Peyton Manning, Ryan Grant, Thomas Jones, Marques Colston, Roy Williams, Vincent Jackson, Tony Romo, Gregg Olsen, Chicago, Nate Kaeding

Went with the take two good QB's theory. That was my strategy last season and despite my #3 pick, Derek Anderson, being a bust, it worked out well having Romo and Warner every week. I don't like Thomas Jones this year, but if he doesn't show is age and stays productive, then the team has a chance if the WR's reach their potential. Too many ifs to be a true contender in my mind. Prediction: 6th

4> Jose Cuervo (me) - Aaron Rodgers, Michael Turner, Ronnie Brown, Roddy White, Braylon Edwards, Ted Ginn Jr, Kurt Warner, Brent Celek, Pittsburgh, Nick Folk

I too went with two top QB's, even though I took Turner in round 1. On paper, this is the team to reckon with. However, as most of my drafts, the receivers are weak. Two straight rounds, the WR I wanted (V.Jackson rd 7 and Eddie Royal rd 8) were taken right ahead of me. The two keys to staying the team to beat are a healthy Kurt Warner and having a primary back get most of the carries in my two handcuff rb's (brown/williams and parker/mendenhall). Prediction: 1st

5> everquest -Carson Palmer, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steve Slaton, Chad Johnson, Anthony Gonzalez, Eddie Royal, Kyle Orton, Jason Witten, Minnesota, Jason Elam

A solid starting lineup. I think Palmer and Orton will have very solid years, but it's no guarantee. I also don't like the depth of this team as it's made up of 2nd string rb's and not the ones backing up his starting rbs. If Chris Wells emerges as a TD machine in Arizona, they have a fighting chance, but I don't have high hopes for him. Prediction: 7th

6> Cookie Monster - Tom Brady, D'Angelo Williams, Brian Westbrook, Anquan Boldin, Wes Welker, Lance Moore, Jason Campbell, Dallas Clark, Baltimore, Mason Crosby

Not many proven commodities to feel safe with this team. DA Williams came on strong at the end of last year, but will he lose carries and td's to james stewart? How long can Westbrook stay health? (they did handcuff mccoy to him) Can Darren McFadden be the first productive Raider in fantasy football this decade? With Colston healthy and Meacham on the rise, what role does Lance Moore have with the Saints? Prediction: 9th

7> Guiness Stingers 5 - Donovan McNabb, Matt Forte, Derrick Ward, Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall, Bernard Berrian, Matt Schaub, Antonio Gates, San Diego, Ryan Longwell

Good draft for this team. Forte can easily turn out to be the top fantasy RB this year. Cutler's presence can only help his numbers. Waited on taking QB's, and still got two very solid ones. Second RB is a huge question mark right now and the WR depth needs to be strengthened. If Ward or Ray Rice step up to be a 20+ touch per game back, then this team can go places. Prediction: 3rd

8> Little J - Ben Roethlisberger, LaDanian Tomlinson, Chris Johnson, TJ Houshmanzadah, Antonio Bryant, Lee Evans, Trent Edwards, Chris Cooley, Philadelphia, Neil Rackers

Very good RB corp will keep them in contention. Even if LT continues his decline, they have Marion Barber III and Clinton Portis on the bench. Even with taking an RB in the first 4 rounds, they still managed a respectable WR group. The Edwards/Evans combo could win them a few weeks on their own. Only problem I see is if they guess wrong on which top RB(s) to sit each week. Prediction: 5th

9> just Russ - Matt Cassell, Joseph Addai, Reggie Bush, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith (car), Owen Daniels, Miama, Stephen Gostkowski

In a FFOC first, Russ took a WR in each of the first 4 rounds. This almost forces him to play a WR at the flex position, which isn't wise IMO. He has hit or miss rb's (Stewart, Moreno, L.Washington plus the two above), so starting the right ones will be a challenge. If Cassell proves to be a system QB, this team will sink faster than Lendale White on Patron. Prediction: 8th

10> Paper Cuts - Phillip Rivers, Stephen Jackson, Kevin Smith, Dwayne Bowe, Hines Ward, Torry Holt, David Garrard, Kellen Winslow, New England, Adam Vinatieri

Relying on Jackson and Smith to carry them. Even if those two stay healthy and produce, that will only make the team competitive. I like the sleeper pick of Jerome Harrison and they have good WR depth. However, this team just lacks talent. Precition: 10th


Good luck everyone!