Hello my friends. This has been a bad season for blogging. Work's been busy and I've increased my after work schedule by adding a poker league and a dart league, so I haven't been able to blog as much as I had hoped. I'll try to make time for at least one blog a week now that the PFFWC playoffs are about to begin.
Week 9 marks the last week of the regular season and thank goodness for that! All 4 of my teams have been brutal due to poor drafting. I really haven't been hit with the injury bug yet my teams are terrible. The last team I drafted (double d's) was my best team, but it was ruined because I forgot about the draft and didn't log in until round 11 after I had already drafted 3 tight ends and 2 defenses. After 10 rounds, I only had 1 WR and no QB's. Hard to win that way, but it's my own fault.
None of my teams have a chance to make the league championship game, so it's time to mold my rosters and try to get a monster score in week 11, 12 or 13 to get the high score and a free entry back into the championship. There's nothing more exciting that cutline weeks and unfortunately, I won't get to experience it with my own team this year.
Good luck to those fighting for a playoff spot in the inaugural season of the PFFWC. Aaron and his small staff have done a great job getting the software glitches out and making it an enjoyable season. It would be great if the field doubles next year to get more prize money into the contest.
Thursday, November 4
Tuesday, September 21
Week 2 in review
My PFFWC teams stunk once again. Only a big night by Frank Gore gave me my first wins of the year out of 4 teams. Looking at my week 2 predictions, I see why my teams lack talent.....
STUDS:
Michael Turner: Probably was a good pick, but injury gave a majority of the stats to Snelling instead of Turner
Aaron Rodgers: A very solid week, but nothing outstanding
Wes Welker: Like Rodgers...solid week, but not enough to carry a team.
Andre Johnson: Winner Winner
Joe Flacco: One of the worst weaks of any QB LOSER LOSER
2nd/3rd tier player to give a surprise performance: Jabbar Gaffney
Another LOSER LOSER. Looks like Denver is spreading the ball around, so to play any of their WR's is a roll of the dice.
DUDS
Michael Vick: Should have switched him and Flacco around
Tony Romo/Miles Austin: Big weeks from these 2
DeSean Jackson: See Michael Vick
Chad Ochocinco: One out of 5 isn't bad is it?
All Cardinals, Rams and Bills: Hightower and Clayton did OK, but the rest were truly duds
STUDS:
Michael Turner: Probably was a good pick, but injury gave a majority of the stats to Snelling instead of Turner
Aaron Rodgers: A very solid week, but nothing outstanding
Wes Welker: Like Rodgers...solid week, but not enough to carry a team.
Andre Johnson: Winner Winner
Joe Flacco: One of the worst weaks of any QB LOSER LOSER
2nd/3rd tier player to give a surprise performance: Jabbar Gaffney
Another LOSER LOSER. Looks like Denver is spreading the ball around, so to play any of their WR's is a roll of the dice.
DUDS
Michael Vick: Should have switched him and Flacco around
Tony Romo/Miles Austin: Big weeks from these 2
DeSean Jackson: See Michael Vick
Chad Ochocinco: One out of 5 isn't bad is it?
All Cardinals, Rams and Bills: Hightower and Clayton did OK, but the rest were truly duds
Friday, September 17
Rough start
Week 1 was a success for the PFFWC, but a complete failure for me. Everything with the new system ran smoothly for Aaron in his first week. His stat service gave him some false information which made for some extra work, but that should only be a one week issue. Kudos to Aaron for pulling off this minor miracle by getting a full fledged national contest up and running in 6 months when starting from scratch!
When I set my lineups in week 1, I looked at the teams I drafted in June and July and thought "What was I thinking?". I had plenty of players who don't deserve to be on rosters and very few big time players I could count on. The numbers proved my initial thought as I didn't have a single team score over 90 points in my 4 leagues.
Here's a quick list of players I expect to have stud week and players to have dud weeks in week 2:
STUDS:
Michael Turner: this game will be a blowout with Turner being the benefactor. After going against the steel curtain last week, the Falcons will feel like they are playing against only 8 guys this week with the Cardinals
Aaron Rodgers: not going on a limb here. Packers will score at least 40 this week at home and no Ryan Grant means more throws for ARodge. I expect at least 4 TD's and 300+ yards out of him.
Wes Welker: Coming of a surprising week where he found the endzone twice, I love his matchup. With Revis most likely guarding Moss, Welker will tear apart Cromartie. Kyle Wilson has the quickness to give him a challenge, but I'll take the veteran Welker against a rookie corner every time. I predict a whopping 13+ catches for Welker this week.
Andre Johnson: With Foster having the huge game last week, Houston didn't need to pass the ball. This week they will as they go up against the tough Redskin defense. Look for Schaub to air it out and Johnson will be his main target as usual.
Joe Flacco: He now has weapons and won't have to face the Jets defense. The Bengals have been hyped as one of the top AFC teams, but Baltimore will show them they have a long ways to go to catch the Ravens.
2nd/3rd tier player to give a surprise performance: Jabbar Gaffney
He's emerged as a decent start on many fantasy teams and this week he'll prove that last week wasn't a fluke and he will soon become a must start player. Seattle's a bad team who plays good defense at home and not good on the road.
DUDS
Michael Vick: Unfortunately, I have to start him this week in a few leagues because of injuries and Vince Young going against Pittsburgh. He will do OK because they are playing Detroit. However, people who expect big points out of him will be disappointed. He is an inaccurate passer and if a team can game plan for him, they will greatly reduce his rushing yards. Look for McCoy to get more of a work load and Vick's poor throwing will lead to more punts than scores.
Tony Romo/Miles Austin: The offensive line was a sieve last week and they get Columbo back this week which will help, but it's still not enough to stop Julius Peppers and crew. If you don't have time to throw the ball, it's hard to gain yards passing. What a concept! I like the Cowboy receivers against the Bears secondary, but I have a feeling Romo will be running for his life.
DeSean Jackson: See Michael Vick
Chad Ochocinco: Bengals will have a hard time moving the ball against the Ravens. The only thing going for them is that the Ravens have a short week and expended a lot of energy in Monday nights game.
All Cardinals, Rams and Bills: These are 3 pathetic teams going on the road against solid defenses. All 3 teams will get blown out with very little offense to show for it. Consider other options if you have players like Hightower, Clayton, Anderson, Spiller, Evans, and Fitzgerald.
When I set my lineups in week 1, I looked at the teams I drafted in June and July and thought "What was I thinking?". I had plenty of players who don't deserve to be on rosters and very few big time players I could count on. The numbers proved my initial thought as I didn't have a single team score over 90 points in my 4 leagues.
Here's a quick list of players I expect to have stud week and players to have dud weeks in week 2:
STUDS:
Michael Turner: this game will be a blowout with Turner being the benefactor. After going against the steel curtain last week, the Falcons will feel like they are playing against only 8 guys this week with the Cardinals
Aaron Rodgers: not going on a limb here. Packers will score at least 40 this week at home and no Ryan Grant means more throws for ARodge. I expect at least 4 TD's and 300+ yards out of him.
Wes Welker: Coming of a surprising week where he found the endzone twice, I love his matchup. With Revis most likely guarding Moss, Welker will tear apart Cromartie. Kyle Wilson has the quickness to give him a challenge, but I'll take the veteran Welker against a rookie corner every time. I predict a whopping 13+ catches for Welker this week.
Andre Johnson: With Foster having the huge game last week, Houston didn't need to pass the ball. This week they will as they go up against the tough Redskin defense. Look for Schaub to air it out and Johnson will be his main target as usual.
Joe Flacco: He now has weapons and won't have to face the Jets defense. The Bengals have been hyped as one of the top AFC teams, but Baltimore will show them they have a long ways to go to catch the Ravens.
2nd/3rd tier player to give a surprise performance: Jabbar Gaffney
He's emerged as a decent start on many fantasy teams and this week he'll prove that last week wasn't a fluke and he will soon become a must start player. Seattle's a bad team who plays good defense at home and not good on the road.
DUDS
Michael Vick: Unfortunately, I have to start him this week in a few leagues because of injuries and Vince Young going against Pittsburgh. He will do OK because they are playing Detroit. However, people who expect big points out of him will be disappointed. He is an inaccurate passer and if a team can game plan for him, they will greatly reduce his rushing yards. Look for McCoy to get more of a work load and Vick's poor throwing will lead to more punts than scores.
Tony Romo/Miles Austin: The offensive line was a sieve last week and they get Columbo back this week which will help, but it's still not enough to stop Julius Peppers and crew. If you don't have time to throw the ball, it's hard to gain yards passing. What a concept! I like the Cowboy receivers against the Bears secondary, but I have a feeling Romo will be running for his life.
DeSean Jackson: See Michael Vick
Chad Ochocinco: Bengals will have a hard time moving the ball against the Ravens. The only thing going for them is that the Ravens have a short week and expended a lot of energy in Monday nights game.
All Cardinals, Rams and Bills: These are 3 pathetic teams going on the road against solid defenses. All 3 teams will get blown out with very little offense to show for it. Consider other options if you have players like Hightower, Clayton, Anderson, Spiller, Evans, and Fitzgerald.
Friday, September 10
Week 1 is here
Last night, I completed my last 2 drafts of the season. 19 leagues in all for me this year plus 3 or 4 survivor/picks pools. The fun part is now over, and it's time to get to work. Many people think all the work is in draft preparation and the actual draft. However, I credit most of my success to the in season work.
To start, I watch as many games as possible and study box scores of the ones I don't. Stats are nice, but they don't always tell the true story. Some things I look for that don't show up in the box score are...
- targets...who does the qb look to in key situations when the team needs a first down. If he consistently targets the same receiver, you know that receiver has a good chance to be productive this season
- talent...many running backs rely on the offensive line to give them holes, but special backs can make people miss as well as lower the shoulder and gain extra yards on contact. The NFL trend is to go with the younger, more explosive running backs. After 3-5 years of heavy use, backs lose some burst and start turning 10 yard gains into 4 yard gains.
- offensive identity...from year to year, most teams keep the same offensive identity. I like to make note of the teams who are definitely running teams and those that are definitely passing teams.
- red zone...going along with offensive identity, I like to see what type of plays a team runs inside the 10 yard line as well as what players are in the game. Is a team using a specific goal line back? Does one receiver play over another in the red zone because of his size and/or strength?
I use these outside factors when drafting as well. Some people go strictly off the magazine rankings and 2009 stats. I make my own rankings which often differ greatly from the so called experts. One example is that I severely downgraded Phillip Rivers this year due to his lack of WR's. Malcom Floyd is a solid #2, but he's not the play maker V-Jax was. Combine the lack of weapons with a rookie running back who will probably mess up on pass protection occasionally, and I see him struggling. Another move I did was to put Shonn Greene in my top 8 rb's. The Jets are a running team and he will get a bulk of the carries. Last year he had 7 td's as the 2nd back and now that he's the man, he can be a stud. LT will obviously get some carries and some goal line touches, but look for Greene to have a monster week.
I want to finish by going off on a tangent. Congrats to Aaron aka Mustache Sweater Man, on getting his PFFWC contest (www.pffwc.com) up and running in short time. For his first season, he has 200 teams from 70+ different participants.
The site gets better and better every day as he pumps out more code. The draft application was easy to use and very well designed. He has great team management features which makes it easy for guys like Zebb who has 17 teams, to manage all of their teams from one screen. The best part is that he lives and breathes the PFFWC, so if something isn't right, he's on top of it and fixing the error ASAP. This one man crew is the best customer support I've ever seen for a national contest. I hope the rest of the season goes well for him and that he can build off the year 1 success and see the contest grow in leaps and bounds next year!
Good luck everyone!
To start, I watch as many games as possible and study box scores of the ones I don't. Stats are nice, but they don't always tell the true story. Some things I look for that don't show up in the box score are...
- targets...who does the qb look to in key situations when the team needs a first down. If he consistently targets the same receiver, you know that receiver has a good chance to be productive this season
- talent...many running backs rely on the offensive line to give them holes, but special backs can make people miss as well as lower the shoulder and gain extra yards on contact. The NFL trend is to go with the younger, more explosive running backs. After 3-5 years of heavy use, backs lose some burst and start turning 10 yard gains into 4 yard gains.
- offensive identity...from year to year, most teams keep the same offensive identity. I like to make note of the teams who are definitely running teams and those that are definitely passing teams.
- red zone...going along with offensive identity, I like to see what type of plays a team runs inside the 10 yard line as well as what players are in the game. Is a team using a specific goal line back? Does one receiver play over another in the red zone because of his size and/or strength?
I use these outside factors when drafting as well. Some people go strictly off the magazine rankings and 2009 stats. I make my own rankings which often differ greatly from the so called experts. One example is that I severely downgraded Phillip Rivers this year due to his lack of WR's. Malcom Floyd is a solid #2, but he's not the play maker V-Jax was. Combine the lack of weapons with a rookie running back who will probably mess up on pass protection occasionally, and I see him struggling. Another move I did was to put Shonn Greene in my top 8 rb's. The Jets are a running team and he will get a bulk of the carries. Last year he had 7 td's as the 2nd back and now that he's the man, he can be a stud. LT will obviously get some carries and some goal line touches, but look for Greene to have a monster week.
I want to finish by going off on a tangent. Congrats to Aaron aka Mustache Sweater Man, on getting his PFFWC contest (www.pffwc.com) up and running in short time. For his first season, he has 200 teams from 70+ different participants.
The site gets better and better every day as he pumps out more code. The draft application was easy to use and very well designed. He has great team management features which makes it easy for guys like Zebb who has 17 teams, to manage all of their teams from one screen. The best part is that he lives and breathes the PFFWC, so if something isn't right, he's on top of it and fixing the error ASAP. This one man crew is the best customer support I've ever seen for a national contest. I hope the rest of the season goes well for him and that he can build off the year 1 success and see the contest grow in leaps and bounds next year!
Good luck everyone!
Monday, June 28
Back in the Saddle
Hi Everyone.
Are you getting ready for another exciting football season? Now that I've had my first draft (yes, I realize it's only June), I will soon be blogging on a regular basis again. I have the rough draft of my first article done, so it should be ready to post shortly.
Welcome back! I hope to keep you entertained and informed throughout the fantasy football season.
Scooter
Are you getting ready for another exciting football season? Now that I've had my first draft (yes, I realize it's only June), I will soon be blogging on a regular basis again. I have the rough draft of my first article done, so it should be ready to post shortly.
Welcome back! I hope to keep you entertained and informed throughout the fantasy football season.
Scooter
Changing Contests
For those of you who enjoyed following my blogs from the FFOC contest, they will be no more. Instead, I will be participating in a brand new fantasy football contest called the PFFWC (Progress Fantasy Football World Championship).
Before informing you about the PFFWC, I want to take time to thank Poised to Stomp for running the FFOC the past two years. It's sad to see a good contest go away, but that just means new opportunities for smaller contests to grow. Although the million dollar grand prize attracted most players, I think the uniqueness of the FFOC cut line and live scoring is what made it so great.
When it seemed obvious that the FFOC was not going to have a 3rd year, one of the loyal participants decided to use his knowledge and business savvy to try his own hand at running a fantasy football contest. The PFFWC is smartly mirroring much of the format the FFOC had. The two main differences are the payouts and the business structure.
The PFFWC does not have the capital to guarantee such a large grand prize. However, as the contest grows, so will the prize fund. This "progressive" pot is unique and assures the business that the contest can run for many years regardless of the number of entries they receive. I hope that in 5 years, the contest is one of the more popular national contests resulting in top prizes in the hundreds of thousand dollar range.
The main reason I support this contest is because of the personal contact and communication. The owner is heavily active in the chat rooms looking for ways to make the contest better. He is also forthright about timelines and any issues they are working to debug. Because they are developing the software from scratch, the technical issues and look and feel will be a work in progress. I just hope the growing pains aren't so bad that they lose customers over this.
The overhead is low since it's just a few people doing all of the work right now. That means more of your entry fee is going towards prizes rather than administrative costs. With guaranteed league and overall prize money, I'm confident that this contest will give fantasy owners the best value for their money. With entries @ $100 per team and a chance to win over $3000, I think it's pretty good odds (based on roughly 120 entries). If the number of entries grows, your odds at winning the grand prize will shrink, but the ratio of the top prizes compared to your entry fee will go up considerably with the progressive pot format.
I like to see small businesses succeed, especially when they are more about making relationships and happy customers more than they are about making money. If you think you have what it takes to win at fantasy football, I strongly suggest you check out the PFFWC (www.pffwc.com)!
Before informing you about the PFFWC, I want to take time to thank Poised to Stomp for running the FFOC the past two years. It's sad to see a good contest go away, but that just means new opportunities for smaller contests to grow. Although the million dollar grand prize attracted most players, I think the uniqueness of the FFOC cut line and live scoring is what made it so great.
When it seemed obvious that the FFOC was not going to have a 3rd year, one of the loyal participants decided to use his knowledge and business savvy to try his own hand at running a fantasy football contest. The PFFWC is smartly mirroring much of the format the FFOC had. The two main differences are the payouts and the business structure.
The PFFWC does not have the capital to guarantee such a large grand prize. However, as the contest grows, so will the prize fund. This "progressive" pot is unique and assures the business that the contest can run for many years regardless of the number of entries they receive. I hope that in 5 years, the contest is one of the more popular national contests resulting in top prizes in the hundreds of thousand dollar range.
The main reason I support this contest is because of the personal contact and communication. The owner is heavily active in the chat rooms looking for ways to make the contest better. He is also forthright about timelines and any issues they are working to debug. Because they are developing the software from scratch, the technical issues and look and feel will be a work in progress. I just hope the growing pains aren't so bad that they lose customers over this.
The overhead is low since it's just a few people doing all of the work right now. That means more of your entry fee is going towards prizes rather than administrative costs. With guaranteed league and overall prize money, I'm confident that this contest will give fantasy owners the best value for their money. With entries @ $100 per team and a chance to win over $3000, I think it's pretty good odds (based on roughly 120 entries). If the number of entries grows, your odds at winning the grand prize will shrink, but the ratio of the top prizes compared to your entry fee will go up considerably with the progressive pot format.
I like to see small businesses succeed, especially when they are more about making relationships and happy customers more than they are about making money. If you think you have what it takes to win at fantasy football, I strongly suggest you check out the PFFWC (www.pffwc.com)!
Monday, January 11
Packer Venting
I've done plenty of venting on facebook about the outstanding Packers-Cardinals game yesterday, but what better way to get it totally out of my system than by writing a book about it in my blog?
If you like offense, this was a game for the ages. I am more of a defensive guy, so this was an ugly game in my eyes. Yes, it was filled with excitement and anxiety, but when punters only see the field when they have to hold for the extra point, then it's nothing more than arena football to me and we all know how many fans love that sport...not many.
Speaking of arena football...how about that game by Kurt Warner! More touchdowns thrown than incompletions. What's the big deal? I didn't hear announcers going nuts on Saturday when Michael Vick had 1 TD and only 1 incompletion. Maybe it's not such a great feat after all?
Warner obviously played great, but he has Dom Capers to thank for a lot of his success. Dom has a feeling that veteran quarterbacks who've seen it all, know how to beat the blitz, so he refuses to do so. Well Dom...they've also seen plenty of zone defenses and know exactly where the holes are and how to beat them. Every Packers loss this season was a result of getting beat in the air due to their weak secondary and no pass rush. Roethslisberger with 500+ yards...Favre with 7 TD's and no int's in 2 games...Rookie Josh Freeman throwing 3 TD's in his first NFL start. In all of those games, this vaunted 3-4 defense which is designed to confuse offenses with complex blitzes from all angles with different players, was played with a vanilla 3 or 4 person rush and a combination zone and man coverage. I will be even more upset if New Orleans blitzes him constantly and causes multiple turnovers and disrupts the offense that we could not stop.
I agree that guys like Favre and Warner can beat the blitz by getting rid of it quickly. However, both can be rattled and will turn the ball over if you get consistent pressure on them. If you sit back and let them throw, they will tear you apart, gain confidence and get very comfortable in the pocket. If you send 5 or 6 at them and play tight man coverage, you may get beat once or twice, but more often than not, you'll stop them.
Some fans had a problem with McCarthy trying a 54 yard field goal in the first half with the team down 24-7. At first I did, because I thought that distance was near the end of Crosby's range. However, seeing as he put the ball half way up the net and had the distance to make it from 60+, I have no problem with the call. McCarthy obviously was told my Crosby that his limit was 55-60. As long as it wasn't a stretch for him to get it that far, I'd rather take the 3 point opportunity than go for a 4th and 8.
One thing I will blame McCarthy for is not challenging the Hightower apparent fumble early in the 4th quarter. I think it was Jenkins or Jolly who made a great play and stripped the ball from him as he went to the ground. The initial replay appeared to show the ball was coming out before Hightower's knee/hip hit the ground. This would have been a huge turnover and let the Packers tie the game earlier. However, Arizona went on to get the second Fitzgerald push off a few plays later to go up 14. Would replay have over turned the on field decision that the runner was down? Probably. Even if they didn't, I felt the team needed momentum and it was definitely worth a time out if we did lose the challenge.
I don't want to be a sore loser, so I waited to discuss the officiating til now. It was horrible. Did it cost the Packers the game? Probably not, but it sure gave them a lot more to over come. The biggest issue seems to be a non facemask call on the last play which would have negated the final score. I don't mind that miss, because from where the ref was standing, he couldn't see the face mask even if he was looking right at it. The helmet to helmet hit on Rodgers the play before which would have kept it at 2nd and 7 instead of 2nd and 17 (Packers had a holding penalty on the play), that is also questionable as the Cardinal definitely led with his head, but I couldn't tell if it made contact with Rodger's helmet. So that one I won't argue about either.
The ones I have the most problem with involve Larry Fitzgerald. He's a great receiver, but Woodson owned him. However, twice Fitzgerald was allowed to put both hands on Woodson as if he was blocking him, then throw him to the ground leaving Fitz wide open for a TD. I can't argue star power because Woodson is one of the two favorites for defensive player of the year. These weren't minor push offs that receivers often get away with. Both were two hand grabs followed by a full extension push to the ground. One was even 5 feet in front of the back judge.
The other key call was when Cullen Jenkins got tackled on a 3rd down play and as he was going to the ground, his hand hit Warner in the head. This gave the Cards a first down and extended another TD drive. I agree that roughing had to be called because Jenkins made contact with the quarterback's helmet. However, the fact that he was tackled right in front of the QB and neither the ref or the umpire saw this is amazing. Assuming that is called, third down is replayed and the outcome could be different.
I assume that I'm not just being a homer in thinking we got the short end of the stick on a majority of the calls because even the Packer hater Troy Aikman was commenting on how the Packers weren't getting any breaks from the officials. And Karlos Dansby stated in his press conference when describing the last play that they 'got a break from the officials' when referring to the non facemask call. I've also had fans of other teams who had no interest in this game, tell me that they feel bad for Packers fans as the officials gave us a lot more to overcome.
Enough about the zebras. What rips my heart out the most is the fact that Rodgers missed Jennings on the first play of overtime. He not only had Rolle beat, but he was 5 yards past him! Rodgers said he misjudged the route Jennings was taking so he didn't put air under the ball. I'm sure that like me, he will be replaying that play in his head all off season!
As great as Rodgers played the final 3 quarters, he helped give Arizona life by making a terrible decision on the first play of the game. The tight end was not even open for a split second. It was a rookie type throw that was uncalled for. Any momentum the Packers had by kicking the Cardinals butt the week before was instantly lost with that play. If the Packers go down the field and score, then the Cardinals begin to realize that we own them. Instead they take advantage of it, make another play on the next drive by stripping Driver and before you know it, we're down 14-0 and they have swagger.
The only solace I can take with all this heartbreak is that the Packers have shown the past 9 weeks just how talented they are and what a bright future the organization has. Ted Thompson admitted earlier this year, that the team is rebuilding and year 3 (next year) is when they planned to be competitive again. The team is way ahead of the curve and with a few veterans mixed in to fill holes on the offensive line and defensive secondary, this could be a team that nobody wants to play in 2010 and 2011.
GO PACK GO!
ps> now my focus goes to my other favorite team...San Diego. If they lose to the Jets, I'll be more disappointed than this loss because the Jets have no business being on the field with the Chargers. Time to wipe Rex Ryan's smug grin off his face .
If you like offense, this was a game for the ages. I am more of a defensive guy, so this was an ugly game in my eyes. Yes, it was filled with excitement and anxiety, but when punters only see the field when they have to hold for the extra point, then it's nothing more than arena football to me and we all know how many fans love that sport...not many.
Speaking of arena football...how about that game by Kurt Warner! More touchdowns thrown than incompletions. What's the big deal? I didn't hear announcers going nuts on Saturday when Michael Vick had 1 TD and only 1 incompletion. Maybe it's not such a great feat after all?
Warner obviously played great, but he has Dom Capers to thank for a lot of his success. Dom has a feeling that veteran quarterbacks who've seen it all, know how to beat the blitz, so he refuses to do so. Well Dom...they've also seen plenty of zone defenses and know exactly where the holes are and how to beat them. Every Packers loss this season was a result of getting beat in the air due to their weak secondary and no pass rush. Roethslisberger with 500+ yards...Favre with 7 TD's and no int's in 2 games...Rookie Josh Freeman throwing 3 TD's in his first NFL start. In all of those games, this vaunted 3-4 defense which is designed to confuse offenses with complex blitzes from all angles with different players, was played with a vanilla 3 or 4 person rush and a combination zone and man coverage. I will be even more upset if New Orleans blitzes him constantly and causes multiple turnovers and disrupts the offense that we could not stop.
I agree that guys like Favre and Warner can beat the blitz by getting rid of it quickly. However, both can be rattled and will turn the ball over if you get consistent pressure on them. If you sit back and let them throw, they will tear you apart, gain confidence and get very comfortable in the pocket. If you send 5 or 6 at them and play tight man coverage, you may get beat once or twice, but more often than not, you'll stop them.
Some fans had a problem with McCarthy trying a 54 yard field goal in the first half with the team down 24-7. At first I did, because I thought that distance was near the end of Crosby's range. However, seeing as he put the ball half way up the net and had the distance to make it from 60+, I have no problem with the call. McCarthy obviously was told my Crosby that his limit was 55-60. As long as it wasn't a stretch for him to get it that far, I'd rather take the 3 point opportunity than go for a 4th and 8.
One thing I will blame McCarthy for is not challenging the Hightower apparent fumble early in the 4th quarter. I think it was Jenkins or Jolly who made a great play and stripped the ball from him as he went to the ground. The initial replay appeared to show the ball was coming out before Hightower's knee/hip hit the ground. This would have been a huge turnover and let the Packers tie the game earlier. However, Arizona went on to get the second Fitzgerald push off a few plays later to go up 14. Would replay have over turned the on field decision that the runner was down? Probably. Even if they didn't, I felt the team needed momentum and it was definitely worth a time out if we did lose the challenge.
I don't want to be a sore loser, so I waited to discuss the officiating til now. It was horrible. Did it cost the Packers the game? Probably not, but it sure gave them a lot more to over come. The biggest issue seems to be a non facemask call on the last play which would have negated the final score. I don't mind that miss, because from where the ref was standing, he couldn't see the face mask even if he was looking right at it. The helmet to helmet hit on Rodgers the play before which would have kept it at 2nd and 7 instead of 2nd and 17 (Packers had a holding penalty on the play), that is also questionable as the Cardinal definitely led with his head, but I couldn't tell if it made contact with Rodger's helmet. So that one I won't argue about either.
The ones I have the most problem with involve Larry Fitzgerald. He's a great receiver, but Woodson owned him. However, twice Fitzgerald was allowed to put both hands on Woodson as if he was blocking him, then throw him to the ground leaving Fitz wide open for a TD. I can't argue star power because Woodson is one of the two favorites for defensive player of the year. These weren't minor push offs that receivers often get away with. Both were two hand grabs followed by a full extension push to the ground. One was even 5 feet in front of the back judge.
The other key call was when Cullen Jenkins got tackled on a 3rd down play and as he was going to the ground, his hand hit Warner in the head. This gave the Cards a first down and extended another TD drive. I agree that roughing had to be called because Jenkins made contact with the quarterback's helmet. However, the fact that he was tackled right in front of the QB and neither the ref or the umpire saw this is amazing. Assuming that is called, third down is replayed and the outcome could be different.
I assume that I'm not just being a homer in thinking we got the short end of the stick on a majority of the calls because even the Packer hater Troy Aikman was commenting on how the Packers weren't getting any breaks from the officials. And Karlos Dansby stated in his press conference when describing the last play that they 'got a break from the officials' when referring to the non facemask call. I've also had fans of other teams who had no interest in this game, tell me that they feel bad for Packers fans as the officials gave us a lot more to overcome.
Enough about the zebras. What rips my heart out the most is the fact that Rodgers missed Jennings on the first play of overtime. He not only had Rolle beat, but he was 5 yards past him! Rodgers said he misjudged the route Jennings was taking so he didn't put air under the ball. I'm sure that like me, he will be replaying that play in his head all off season!
As great as Rodgers played the final 3 quarters, he helped give Arizona life by making a terrible decision on the first play of the game. The tight end was not even open for a split second. It was a rookie type throw that was uncalled for. Any momentum the Packers had by kicking the Cardinals butt the week before was instantly lost with that play. If the Packers go down the field and score, then the Cardinals begin to realize that we own them. Instead they take advantage of it, make another play on the next drive by stripping Driver and before you know it, we're down 14-0 and they have swagger.
The only solace I can take with all this heartbreak is that the Packers have shown the past 9 weeks just how talented they are and what a bright future the organization has. Ted Thompson admitted earlier this year, that the team is rebuilding and year 3 (next year) is when they planned to be competitive again. The team is way ahead of the curve and with a few veterans mixed in to fill holes on the offensive line and defensive secondary, this could be a team that nobody wants to play in 2010 and 2011.
GO PACK GO!
ps> now my focus goes to my other favorite team...San Diego. If they lose to the Jets, I'll be more disappointed than this loss because the Jets have no business being on the field with the Chargers. Time to wipe Rex Ryan's smug grin off his face .
Monday, January 4
What could have been
I went through the week 16 rosters for the final 15 before I went to Vegas and made note of the line ups I would have started. Here's a list of some key performances and tough roster moves that each of the 15 made and how it affected the final standings.
Goonggoong29 ($1,000,000) - carried by McNabb and Chris Johnson. I would have started Stewart instead of LT because Tennessee is very good against the run and LT doesn't get the touches he used to, but LT came through with 2 TDs helping them to the million dollar first prize.
Beasts II ($100,000) - Adrian Peterson carried them to a late surge and Chris was one long TD run away from surpassing Detsinh. Made a great call by starting the Bengals DST (9 pts) against KC rather than the Giants (-6) against Carolina. If he would have started the Giants as I would have, he would have finished 6th and lost $95,000. It's also to be noted that Chris had the high week 16 score of the final 15 with 147.98.
Liquid HIppos ($40,000) - Jumped up 5 spots thanks to Peterson's big 2nd half Monday. I don't see any tough line up decisions he had. He started Vernon Davis at TE over Dallas Clark just as he had the previous 3 weeks, which was the smart move since nobody knew how long Indy's starters would play. Greg earned an extra $20,000 with the Bears getting a TD in OT versus a FG since NYTCxpress had the Vikings DST.
NYTCxpress ($20,000) - As stated above, Don ran into tough luck with the Vikings defense giving up a TD instead of a FG in OT which cost him 3 points and $20,000. However, Don was in this position by making some of the best lineup decisions in the field. He started Brent Celek (20.10 pt) over Dallas Clark (5.7) and Beanie Wells (15.30) at OP over Peyton Manning (7.68). He obviously felt that the Colts wouldn't play their starters more than one half. Don was let down by his receivers who scored a combined 18.7 pts. He had 2 wr's on the bench (Mason and Smith-nyg) who scored over 20 pts combined. I would have started Walker, Ocho Cinco and Miles as he did, but I couldn't argue using one of the other 2 receivers in place of Walker.
Pigskin McChickenz ($10,000) - They moved up one spot thanks to the last second Sidney Rice TD. This doubled their winnings and set them up to move up even higher. This offsets some of their bad luck from the noon game where Ricky Williams missed half the game with a shoulder injury while his replacement scored twice and racked up 90+ yards. They also were the only owners of Matt Schaub who scored 20 points in the first half and only .14 points in the second half. I feel Jerry's pain as I had Schaub in the Bellagio Bracket.
willboski3 ($5,000) - After a good start out of CJ on Thursday, Will was in position to win the million. He trailed only Goonggoong29 and the wheels were spinning in his head. When I talked to him on Friday, he had the right attitude....he was going to go for the million and didn't care if line up decisions back fired and made him finish 10th. Since he had many similar starters to Detsinh, he planned on putting Ward(3.7) or Mason(7.7) in for DeSean Jackson (9.0) and Indy DST (-2) for Philly (4). I also suggested Larry Johnson (1.1) for Moats (6.2) as I anticipated the Bengals winning easily and giving LJ a chance to get back at his former team. In the end, he only did the defensive change, which ultimately cost him 6 points and $35,000. It's easy to say now that you should just play your best players regardless, but he definitely needed to do something if he were to catch Detsinh. I'm the gambling type, so I admire someone who uses all their bullets and goes for it all rather than someone who plays cautious and concedes the top prize to try and settle for 3rd or 4th. Will...it's too bad you were unable to join us in Vegas because of your job. It would have been fun talking to you more about your decisions. Sounds like you had a great time back home with your friends watching the games. Too bad it didn't work out better for you.
w's marauders ($4,250) - no line up decisions that I see and nobody involved in the Monday night frantic finish to affect their standings
dream machine viii ($4,000) - Like Chris, Ron anticipated the Colts benching their starters so he sat Reggie Wayne (3.3). The decision was made easier by the fact he would have Darrel Revis guarding him when he did play. His replacement (Ward) only scored 3.7, but it was the smart move. He also had Donald Driver (3.3) as an option. I would have started Ward as well. Ron hit heartbreak in the early game when Derrick Mason dropped a wide open TD as he started Flacco. This extra 4+ points would have moved him up 1 more spot. The good news is that it would only have been an extra $250, so that helps lessen the pain.
Billy B's boys ($3,700) - Tytus decided to go with Peyton Manning. Probably going for the home run rather than play it safe. His other option was David Garrard, who's match up I liked. The extra 4.72 points that Garrard scored would have moved him up 2 spots for an extra $500. Had Peyton played the entire game, he surely would have outscored Garrard. I admire him going for it all, just as Will did with his team.
Skyt 2 hottie ($3,400) - In Scottie's case, I agree with starting Peyton Manning as his only other option was Mark Sanchez. Sanchez out scored Manning by .56, but I would never recommend starting Sanchez. Adrian Peterson helped move scottie up a few spots on Monday night.
shot caller10 ($3,000) - Only real lineup decision was Fred Davis or Brent Celek at TE. I would have gone with Davis as well since he's been hot. Both are good options and you couldn't fault him going either way. Had he started Celek, Matt would have vaulted up to 6th place and gained an extra $2000.
party @rapiddraft.com ($2,750) - Moved up 1 spot thanks to the Sidney Rice TD at the end of regulation. He also played Peyton Manning, but had no other QB's and would of had to put Moreno at OP. Playing Moreno would have moved him up a few spots and an extra $1,000, but I wouldn't have done it either.
The eraser ($2,500) - Dan went with his Colts (Wayne and Clark) where as I would have started Harvin and Finley. He also had Mason and Collie as an option at WR. Going with Finley and one of the other receivers would have moved Dan up 2 spots earning an extra $500.
boom goes my dynamite ($2,250) - Made a great move by starting Jonathan Stewart and his 20+ points. His other option was Jamal Charles. Unfortunately, even though he carried 3 defenses, John had terrible match ups with all of them. He went with Tennessee who had been playing well and was at home. I probably would have done the same, but they had -4. His other options were Chicago (5) vs Minnesota and Seattle (-9) at Green Bay.
Chateau 1 ($2,000) - Had a unique line up and I liked his chances to finish in the top 3. Ricky Williams getting hurt didn't help his cause nor did Minnesota's -3 on Monday night. His other defenses were at home with decent match ups (phil and Cin). Ron would have finished 9th if he started Philly and 7th if he went with Cincinnati. I would have gone with Philly, but I understand the Minnesota play. Cutler had been a turnover machine up until week 16.
Great job by all 14 owners to make it this far. I'm sure they had much tougher decisions in other weeks in which they made the right moves. You can have a great team, yet still make wrong moves and leave plenty of points on the bench. Fortunately, I don't see any tough decisions that ended up costing someone thousands of dollars. Fantasy football owners need short term memory just like NFL cornerbacks. If you always think about the move you could have made, you won't think clearly on your next move and it could cost you dearly.
Goonggoong29 ($1,000,000) - carried by McNabb and Chris Johnson. I would have started Stewart instead of LT because Tennessee is very good against the run and LT doesn't get the touches he used to, but LT came through with 2 TDs helping them to the million dollar first prize.
Beasts II ($100,000) - Adrian Peterson carried them to a late surge and Chris was one long TD run away from surpassing Detsinh. Made a great call by starting the Bengals DST (9 pts) against KC rather than the Giants (-6) against Carolina. If he would have started the Giants as I would have, he would have finished 6th and lost $95,000. It's also to be noted that Chris had the high week 16 score of the final 15 with 147.98.
Liquid HIppos ($40,000) - Jumped up 5 spots thanks to Peterson's big 2nd half Monday. I don't see any tough line up decisions he had. He started Vernon Davis at TE over Dallas Clark just as he had the previous 3 weeks, which was the smart move since nobody knew how long Indy's starters would play. Greg earned an extra $20,000 with the Bears getting a TD in OT versus a FG since NYTCxpress had the Vikings DST.
NYTCxpress ($20,000) - As stated above, Don ran into tough luck with the Vikings defense giving up a TD instead of a FG in OT which cost him 3 points and $20,000. However, Don was in this position by making some of the best lineup decisions in the field. He started Brent Celek (20.10 pt) over Dallas Clark (5.7) and Beanie Wells (15.30) at OP over Peyton Manning (7.68). He obviously felt that the Colts wouldn't play their starters more than one half. Don was let down by his receivers who scored a combined 18.7 pts. He had 2 wr's on the bench (Mason and Smith-nyg) who scored over 20 pts combined. I would have started Walker, Ocho Cinco and Miles as he did, but I couldn't argue using one of the other 2 receivers in place of Walker.
Pigskin McChickenz ($10,000) - They moved up one spot thanks to the last second Sidney Rice TD. This doubled their winnings and set them up to move up even higher. This offsets some of their bad luck from the noon game where Ricky Williams missed half the game with a shoulder injury while his replacement scored twice and racked up 90+ yards. They also were the only owners of Matt Schaub who scored 20 points in the first half and only .14 points in the second half. I feel Jerry's pain as I had Schaub in the Bellagio Bracket.
willboski3 ($5,000) - After a good start out of CJ on Thursday, Will was in position to win the million. He trailed only Goonggoong29 and the wheels were spinning in his head. When I talked to him on Friday, he had the right attitude....he was going to go for the million and didn't care if line up decisions back fired and made him finish 10th. Since he had many similar starters to Detsinh, he planned on putting Ward(3.7) or Mason(7.7) in for DeSean Jackson (9.0) and Indy DST (-2) for Philly (4). I also suggested Larry Johnson (1.1) for Moats (6.2) as I anticipated the Bengals winning easily and giving LJ a chance to get back at his former team. In the end, he only did the defensive change, which ultimately cost him 6 points and $35,000. It's easy to say now that you should just play your best players regardless, but he definitely needed to do something if he were to catch Detsinh. I'm the gambling type, so I admire someone who uses all their bullets and goes for it all rather than someone who plays cautious and concedes the top prize to try and settle for 3rd or 4th. Will...it's too bad you were unable to join us in Vegas because of your job. It would have been fun talking to you more about your decisions. Sounds like you had a great time back home with your friends watching the games. Too bad it didn't work out better for you.
w's marauders ($4,250) - no line up decisions that I see and nobody involved in the Monday night frantic finish to affect their standings
dream machine viii ($4,000) - Like Chris, Ron anticipated the Colts benching their starters so he sat Reggie Wayne (3.3). The decision was made easier by the fact he would have Darrel Revis guarding him when he did play. His replacement (Ward) only scored 3.7, but it was the smart move. He also had Donald Driver (3.3) as an option. I would have started Ward as well. Ron hit heartbreak in the early game when Derrick Mason dropped a wide open TD as he started Flacco. This extra 4+ points would have moved him up 1 more spot. The good news is that it would only have been an extra $250, so that helps lessen the pain.
Billy B's boys ($3,700) - Tytus decided to go with Peyton Manning. Probably going for the home run rather than play it safe. His other option was David Garrard, who's match up I liked. The extra 4.72 points that Garrard scored would have moved him up 2 spots for an extra $500. Had Peyton played the entire game, he surely would have outscored Garrard. I admire him going for it all, just as Will did with his team.
Skyt 2 hottie ($3,400) - In Scottie's case, I agree with starting Peyton Manning as his only other option was Mark Sanchez. Sanchez out scored Manning by .56, but I would never recommend starting Sanchez. Adrian Peterson helped move scottie up a few spots on Monday night.
shot caller10 ($3,000) - Only real lineup decision was Fred Davis or Brent Celek at TE. I would have gone with Davis as well since he's been hot. Both are good options and you couldn't fault him going either way. Had he started Celek, Matt would have vaulted up to 6th place and gained an extra $2000.
party @rapiddraft.com ($2,750) - Moved up 1 spot thanks to the Sidney Rice TD at the end of regulation. He also played Peyton Manning, but had no other QB's and would of had to put Moreno at OP. Playing Moreno would have moved him up a few spots and an extra $1,000, but I wouldn't have done it either.
The eraser ($2,500) - Dan went with his Colts (Wayne and Clark) where as I would have started Harvin and Finley. He also had Mason and Collie as an option at WR. Going with Finley and one of the other receivers would have moved Dan up 2 spots earning an extra $500.
boom goes my dynamite ($2,250) - Made a great move by starting Jonathan Stewart and his 20+ points. His other option was Jamal Charles. Unfortunately, even though he carried 3 defenses, John had terrible match ups with all of them. He went with Tennessee who had been playing well and was at home. I probably would have done the same, but they had -4. His other options were Chicago (5) vs Minnesota and Seattle (-9) at Green Bay.
Chateau 1 ($2,000) - Had a unique line up and I liked his chances to finish in the top 3. Ricky Williams getting hurt didn't help his cause nor did Minnesota's -3 on Monday night. His other defenses were at home with decent match ups (phil and Cin). Ron would have finished 9th if he started Philly and 7th if he went with Cincinnati. I would have gone with Philly, but I understand the Minnesota play. Cutler had been a turnover machine up until week 16.
Great job by all 14 owners to make it this far. I'm sure they had much tougher decisions in other weeks in which they made the right moves. You can have a great team, yet still make wrong moves and leave plenty of points on the bench. Fortunately, I don't see any tough decisions that ended up costing someone thousands of dollars. Fantasy football owners need short term memory just like NFL cornerbacks. If you always think about the move you could have made, you won't think clearly on your next move and it could cost you dearly.
Friday, January 1
Final 15 in Vegas
Twas the night after Christmas and all through the casino. The drinks were flowing and the final 15 hoped their players would hit home runs like the Great Bambino. They all had their eyes on the million dollar first prize. But the entire weekend everyone remained nice guys.OK..enough with the cheese..time for the facts. Heading into the final weekend, the top 3 were Don, Detsinh and William. With the FFOC format of a cumulative score and week 16 counting for 1/3 of your score, it was anyone's game to win the million, but the teams at the top definitely had an advantage. I don't know how any of them got much sleep that week.
Saturday night after our Bellagio Bracket draft, all the finalists met at the Sportsbook bar for a champagne toast and some socializing. I met Ron and his son Ryan (below), who were the only owners
with 2 teams in the finals. They had their whole family along to enjoy the experience and we had a great time talking about strategies and reflecting on the season that was. Like Ron, I felt his Chateu I team had a good chance to be the darkhorse winner because of his unique roster with good match ups. He was the only one with Grant and Ricky Williams who both had some of the best match ups for rb's. He was also the only team with Fitzgerald and his qb's (Favre and Big Ben) were only on one or two other teams. He definitely had the team to make up 16 points and vault from 9th to 1st. His family is full of great people and I wish them all the best in the future!With Sunday came game day. Everyone found themselves a comfortable seat to watch their hopes for a million dollars either become reality or go up in flames. GoongGoongh29 and Willboski3 had an early jump on the competition thanks to good games by Chris Johnson and Ladanian Tomlinson on Friday night.
To be honest, I didn't pay much attention to the top 15 standings as I was more concerned in my Bellagio bracket. I couldn't really tell who was doing well because the room was awfully quiet during the games on Sunday. Either everyone was too nervous to cheer or hung over from the night before. For this reason, I don't really have any good stories from Sunday.
However, I did get a chance too meet Dutsinh and his 3 brothers (below). They drove 20 hours from Western Nebraska and got into town early Sunday morning. They encountered a lot of snow
which made driving difficult and added 4 hours to their already long trip. Thankfully they made it there and were able to see their Jets win and get in the drivers seat for a playoff run. I also noticed they built a comfortable lead thanks to Donovan McNabb, and sat ahead of everyone with two games to go and they still had Romo, Austin and Peterson to go. I jinxed them by telling them I didn't see anyone who could catch them. That was assuming Romo and Austin put up at least 26 pts as I expected them to. All 4 of the brothers appeared in awe on how close they were to winning a million dollars, yet also very humble and sociable.Going into Monday night's game, the GoonGoongh29's pretty much had first place wrapped up.
The only hopes to catch them were Don with his NYTCXpress team which was 40 back with Peterson and Minnesota's DST and Chris aka Juggernaut (right) and his Beasts II team who needed a super monster, 4 TD type game out of Adrian Peterson. Neither was likely, but there's always a chance. Everyone else was battling to move up a few positions as other teams had Favre and Sidney Rice.The first half was dominated by the Bears which made Dutsinh and crew much more relaxed. Peterson had only gained 30+ yards and the defense was not going to put up major points. The free alcohol started flowing more freely as it appeared that they had the top prize all wrapped up. They even had time to take a picture with one of the lovely waitresses, Rhonda (below).
You can't tell from this picture, but her small referee's shirt was hiding her voluptuous FF's. Stan knows how to pick em! You can also see Jason and Matthew to the right enjoying the view.The second half was a different story. Adrian Peterson was finally getting some touches and taking advantage of it. As he got his first touchdown, the crowd started getting into it. Chris (Beasts II), Don (NYTC), Scottie (skyt 2 hotty), Greg (Liquidhippos) and Matthew (shot caller10) all had ADP and were finally reaping the benefits.
At this stage, every little play can mean thousands of dollars difference for most of the teams. As the Vikings crept to within 7 at 30-23 and 5 minutes left, many owners started wishing for overtime so they could accumulate more stats. One team that didn't want overtime was Goongoongh29 who was only 11 or 12 points ahead of Beasts II after Peterson ran in his second score of the half. Now one long TD run of 40+ yds and we had a new leader! Because the Bears had racked up 30 points, NYTCxpress had fallen back because they owned the Minnesota TDS. Only a special teams TD could vault them back ahead of Beasts II into 2nd place.
As you know from my previous blog, Sidney Rice got a last second touchdown on a drive which should have ended many plays earlier when Zack Bowman dropped an easy interception. This was heartbreak for Dutsinh and crew as they were one catch from wrapping up the million dollar grand prize. Now they had to sweat out overtime. The Sidney Rice TD also gave Jeff (party @ rapiddraft.com team) and Jerry (pigskin mcchickenz) 7 extra points to move each up one spot and both were within a few yards of moving up another spot in OT. Jerry gained an extra $5000 with this TD and Jeff gained $250. The TD also allowed Joel (boom goes my dynamite) to move up one spot and get an extra $250. He was pretty vocal earlier in the game when Favre was struggling, but a big second half helped move him up.
In OT, Chicago got the ball first and had a chance to win it with a 44 yard FG. Instead, Robbie was fools Gould and the Peterson, Favre, and Rice owners had more hope. On the first play from the 30, Peterson caught a pass and was out in the open.
I'm sure Dutsinh's heart sunk. He was corralled 16 yards later and fumbled! Chris's misery was Dutsinh's jubilation. When Cutler hit Aromashoduh for a TD on the next play, the game was over and the celebration began for the champions (above)! Unnoticed by most, is the fact that Don's NYTCxpress team lost 3 points on that play so the Gould missed FG also cost him $20,000 as Greg leapfrogged him in the standings. Had Gould made the FG, the Minnesota DST would have stayed at 0 points rather than drop to -3 by giving up over 34 points. As many bitter pills as I've had to swallow, nothing compares to Don's loss on this play. I feel your pain brotha!This blog has run long enough, so I will use a separate blog to break down the final 15 and the big roster decisions they had to make and how it impacted them. Below are some more pictures from the final event to help you put some faces with the names in the contest.
Detsinh's brother cry out..."My brother's a F'n millionaire!"
The 2009 champ accepts his trophy and money.
Aaron and Stan chat in the doorway. I don't know what the conversation's about, but I'm sure it's full of humor. Aaron always looks to lighten the mood with his dry humor.
Scottie and his wife keep a close eye on the standings.
Korey (left) and Jim (right) watch the game in their usual calm and relaxed way. Both guys are very intelligent, super nice guys. Both understand this is a game and don't take it too seriously. Like everyone else in the contest, it was a pleasure talking with these guys and gaining some information as well.
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