Bellagio Bracket

This year, the FFOC introduced the Bellagio Bracket which allowed people to experience the Grand Championship even if they didn't make the final 15. It was a brilliant idea and I'm surprised that they had trouble filling one 10 team league. I don't know if it had to do with Christmas falling on Friday or the poor economy? No matter what the reason's were this year, I hope he can fill 2 or 3 leagues next year.

The festivities started Saturday night with our draft. Each owner had their own table marked with their name and draft position and a nice comfortable leather sofa to sit in. The sofa got even more comfortable when Stan introduced the knockout Laura to assist us with the draft. She would go sofa to sofa to get each teams pick during the draft and she definitely distracted some people more than others looking at the draft results.

I was very curious to see how the draft went. My rankings were based on match ups and I had many big name players low, or even off my list (Wayne, Dal. Clark and Manning were not on my lists). We all know that QB's do most of the scoring, so it's important to get 2 good QB's. I felt that 5 or 6 RB's had great match ups (ADP, Grant, R. Williams, Benson, Gore) so it would be tough for me to pass on these guys with the 9th and 12th pick when I know that QB's will be flying and I didn't want to get stuck with garbage.

As expected, the QB's went early. Rodgers, Brees, Warner and Brady were the first 4 picks. Korey and Shane then broke the string by taking Frank Gore and Andre Johnson respectively. Peterson and Roethlisberger went next, and although I had Benson rated as my top RB for the week, I decided that I couldn't pass on MJD. New England's defense hasn't been very good and I knew he'd get plenty of touches. Aaron went with Favre and Benson and I didn't hesitate in takinig Matt Schaub. It was hard to pass on Ricky and Grant, but I also had to get the one last top QB while I could. And without a running game, I figured Schaub would throw early and often.

In round 2, Pete grabbed Moss to go with Brady going for all or nothing, and he basically sealed the first place victory with those first 2 picks. With each pick, Pete would always ask for Laura's advice as she appeared to have some basic fantasy football knowledge, and why not use your full minute to have a hot Russian by your side? In the end, he named his team "Laura's team" in honor of her. The Bellagio Standings say "Kelly's team" which is incorrect.

Back to the draft...I was ecstatic when Ryan Grant made it back to me at the end of round 3. I now had a top QB and two top RB's who had very good match ups. I also loved Korey's start as he grabbed both Gore and Ricky Williams. As long as he could find two QB's to put up a combined 30 points, I figured his team would be in contention. My 4th pick I had to get at least one WR capable of a big week so I took Carolina's Steve Smith. The Giants secondary is very bad and I figured he would have a field day.

By round 5, all the decent QB's were gone, so I continued to fill my WR's. I went with Dwayne Bowe in round 5, but debated Robert Meacham in this spot. My thought was the KC would throw the ball more and Bowe gets more targets than Meacham. In round 6, I wanted to get a top TE as Vernon Davis was the only one off the board. I had Finley next on my rankings, and I could have used his 8 points. Instead, I went with my 3rd ranked guy...Tony Gonzalez. With Ryan back and White being hot, I thought he'd see more single coverage and targets against the Bills strong secondary.

My last WR I had planned on Percy Harvin as he appears to be fully healthy again and Favre seems to favor him as a target. It also would give me someone on Monday night to give me hope if I was in contention. However, I decided to go with more upside and take Calvin Johnson. A pre-season stud, he's been a big disappointment. I figured that SF would win easily meaning Detroit would abandon the run in the 2nd half.

I was the first one to take a defense, and I went with my top rated team...Arizona. I also loved the match ups for New Orleans, Atlanta and Green Bay, but St Louis has the worse offense by far and Arizona always seems to get a lot of sacks at home. Arizona didn't score the most points, but they had a solid 16 for me.

Kicker was going to be my last pick but with me being the only one to need a QB, Cassel would be my last pick. So in round 9, only Hartley was taken so I had my choice of kickers. Once again, I wanted to pull the trigger on Longwell since he played Monday night and had a good match up. However, Chicago got a foot of snow on Saturday and I didn't trust the kicking conditions. Going into the draft, I planned on taking Ricky Schmitt just to look smart, and because he had a great match-up. However, the beautiful Russian made me think European and Vodka, so I went with Seabass, Sebastian Janikowski.

I was quite happy with my team and figured my KC combo of Cassel to Bowe would be the key as to whether I finished 5th or 1st. The other teams I liked were Korey's and Jim's. Korey had the Gore-Williams combo with McNabb and solid WR's (Smith, Crabtree, Rice). His wildcard was Peyton Manning (5th round pick?). I didn't have him on my draft list, but if he played the whole game, he could be the steal of the draft. Jim had two good QB match ups with Warner and Alex Smith. The rest of his team was filled with solid and consistent, not flashy players.

After the draft, we went to the Sportsbook bar and Stan gave a well deserved champagne toast to the 14 finalists (Ron had 2 teams). I got to meet many of the final 15 for the first time and we watched the Lakers give us a miracle cover in double OT. My first night in Vegas was a very successful one.

Sunday we went back to the Monet room for the games. We had my hometown Packers on the projection screen and 4 other games on the other tv's. I was surprised at the relaxed atmosphere for the games. I didn't expect a lot of excitement from the Bellagio bracket players as we had far less on the line than the final 15. I think the quiet atmosphere was a combination of people being hung over from partying hard the night before (I made sure to turn in my 1 am so I could get at least 7 hours of sleep) and people just waiting to see how the standings shook out after the noon games to see if they had a realistic chance to become the next fantasy football millionaire.

In the first quarter and a half, Pete and I were on fire. He got two Brady-Moss TD's, Roddy White had a long TD, and he also had 60 yds and a TD from his one questionable pick in my mind...Pierre Thomas. I had a great first half from Schaub (20 pts) and Seabass had 3 FG's, including a 61 yarder! I think that should have been worth 8 points not only for the distance, but he is a Raider! Stan..can't you weight the scoring system towards Raiders?

After the noon games, I calculated unofficial scores on a spreadsheet since they did not have any live Bellagio Bracket standings. Eventually, they got it so you could see your teams live scoring on the site and it would tell you what place you were in, but you didn't know what the other teams scores were. This is the ONLY thing I'd change for the Bellagio bracket next year. At this point, Pete was already over 110 points with 3 players left to play and I crowned him the champ. He wasn't as confident, but with a 40 point lead and a good RB and QB left to play, he was golden.

By half time of the 3 pm games, the Arizona defense was going strong and Calvin Johnson was racking up yards. I was starting to build a good cushion for 2nd, which I would need since I didn't have anyone playing Sunday night or Monday night. As Detroit and Calvin Johnson were piling up some garbage time yards, he lost his 2nd fumble of the game. This not only cost me by losing 1 for his lost fumble, but as it turns out, the team I would be in a fight with for 2nd (Scottie's team), had the SF defense. That's another 2 point turn around.

As the Eagles and Broncos wrapped up their shootout, Pete still had 1st wrapped up and there was a 4 or 5 team race for 2nd and 3rd.

After the 3 pm games, Pete and I played blackjack and got absolutely ripped. I didn't even pay attention to the Cowboys-Redskins game. All I knew by the end of the night was the final score. It was a good thing that the Monday night gala didn't start until 5 pm. I got back to the room around 4:30 am and slept in. By 5 pm I was moving and had most of the cob webs out from the night before.

The Monday night gala was a sight to behold. A similar set up to Sunday with the addition of a full buffet in the back of the room and open bar with more cocktail waitresses (Jill and Rhonda). Jill remember Pete and I from the night before and apologized for trying to kill us with all those triple shot drinks the night before. She couldn't believe we were back drinking again. We're from Wisconsin..what do you expect?

Monday there was a lot more intensity during the game with the Final 15 fighting for positioning and better payouts. First place was pretty much decided in their contest as it was ours. I'll give more details about their fantastic finish in my next blog.

Going into the game, according to my unofficial stats, I was in 2nd followed by Jim Tracy who was about 10.5 behind me with Harvin playing. My other main threat was Korey who was 16 or 17 behind with Sidney Rice going. The dark horse was Scottie who needed a monster night out of ADP.

The first half went as well as could be for me. Rice caught a few, Harvin was non existent, and Peterson was kept out of the end zone. I was feeling pretty good about a 2nd place finish. The Vi-queens got rolling a little bit in the 2nd half, but the 3 guys I was worried about weren't doing much so I was alright. However, Harvin had the ability to break a long one at any time and that would bump me down to 3rd. Peterson started going and found the end zone in the third quarter putting Scottie's team on my radar for the first time.

Early in the 4th, the Queens got inside the 5 again and after one failed carry by Peterson, Favre found Shiancoe in the end zone making me a happy guy. I still had a comfortable lead with 5 minutes to go. When Peterson got his second score and was up over 20 points for the night, I knew Scottie was close to me, but I had no idea what my cushion was. I didn't have my computer with me, but he was getting the live scoring on his notepad. After the 2nd TD, he had around 122 points and was listed in 3rd place. I knew my total was around 123 or 124 so the ice was getting thin. Rice and Harvin were still non factors in the game and a ways back.

Then came the exciting last half hour. With the Bears up by a TD and 2 minutes left, the Queens were on their last breath. With 50 seconds left, Favre had a ball tipped and it was right in the hands of one Zack Bowman. He proved why he's on defense as the ball went right through his hands. It couldn't have gotten any easier for him to wrap up a Bears win and a 2nd place finish for me. Instead, Favre converted a 4th down play and the Queens were inside the 5. With no time outs and only 18 seconds, I didn't think Peterson would get a chance to score and a Harvin or Rice TD would not hurt me other than having to sweat out OT.

The Bears defense was holding strong and after 3 straight incompletions, the game came down to one final play. Did Favre have more magic in him? Yes! A nice throw and catch resulted in some big cheers and some groans. You can see the Favre owners in the picture to the right with their hands raised. I was definitely not happy about this. I also found out later that the Rice TD cost me $400 in one home town league championship and a free limo service to Lambeau Field ($400 value) in another league. Grrrrrrrrrr.

With overtime about to start, I went over by Scottie and he was at 123.4 and it still showed him in 3rd. I thought that I had at least 124, but I couldn't remember and they didn't have the live Bellagio bracket scoring for us to view. The Bears got the ball to start OT, so all I needed was a scoring drive and the $1200 for second place was mine.

Then came heartbreak #2. The Bears got into scoring range on the very first play after a long completion to Aromashoduh. The drive stalled 3 plays later at the 27, so out came Mr. Money, Robbie Gould for a 44 yard game winner. You can't have a last name like Gould if you choke under pressure can you? He had been perfect all night long....until now. I felt like a Florida St fan from the 90's when I heard the words "Wide Right". You're kidding me right?!?!?! Peterson was sure to get 10+ yards now and bump me to 3rd. Worse yet, what if he got his yards and then Rice or Harvin get a TD taking me out of the money all together? For the first time all night, I was worried.

On the very first play, Peterson caught a screen and broke free...that's it. Time to hold on to 3rd. But as he got down field, my prayer was answered...FUMBLE!!!!!! Bears recover! A lot of people in the room weren't happy campers, but I loved it. I figured he gained 12-14 and lost 1, so Scottie was still under 124. I checked in for an update and he said he was still listed as 3rd place.

On the very next play, Cutler hit Aromashoduh again, this time for a game winning TD. I high 5'd Pete as we unofficially swept the Bellagio bracket paying for our weekend trip to Vegas. Scottie came up and congratulated me and was obviously disappointed in the fumble. About 5 minutes later, he burst my bubble slightly by saying the latest updated scoring showed him in 2nd meaning I took a $700 pay cut to finish 3rd. I continued to join Detsinh and his group in their celebration of winning $1 million dollars for a while, and then they posted the unofficial results. The 6 tenths of a point that Peterson got on that catch and fumble was enough to put Scottie .46 points ahead of me. UGH!

Part of me was disappointed for yet another Monday night disappointment and small margin of defeat. However, I was happy for the fact that Scottie needed the money much more than I do, so at least it would be put to good use.

It was an exciting finish to a great weekend. The final Bellagio Bracket winners were:

1st - Pete Musha - $2200
2nd - Scottie H - $1200
3rd - yours truly - $500

I encourage everyone to take part in this next year if you don't make the final 15, if you can afford it. It's definitely not cheap, but it's the Bellagio and a great experience. If you're lucky enough, you can pay for the trip by finishing in the top 2.

As disappointing as the Jason Campbell finish was the week before leaving me 2.2 points short of a free Vegas weekend and a final 15 spot, the Sidney Rice TD and following OT costing me $1500 in money and prizes was even more disappointing and heart breaking. It's the ups and downs of fantasy football and this season has definitely been filled with more ups than downs for me. However, the last 2 Monday night downs have been huge downers.

Thanks for reading this book. My Final 15 blog will be even longer with more pictures, so stay tuned.

Vegas bound!

Due to a shortage of points, I'm heading to Vegas for a weekend of football and partying on my own tab rather than the FFOC. Missing the top 15 by 2.4 points and the August bracket by less than 1 point, I was a TD late and a dollar short.

My flight leaves in 6 hours and I don't plan on getting much sleep. I'll get into Vegas early Saturday morning and have a whole day to get ready for the bellagio draft. I can't wait for it! It's a competitive league and with a one week scoring system, everyone's draft lists will probably differ greatly.

I have the 9th pick and am happy with it. I'd much rather be low in the draft than high. My friend Pete who's in the bracket as well is drafting 4th. The Bellagio bracket is filled with big names such as Jim T who bought the most teams in the FFOC and was the hot topic in the message boards most of this season.
Then there's Korey G who's part of rotoplay.com and a very skilled drafter as well. He made the top 15 last year and came up just short this season. Other final 15 participants from last year, Aaron "sweater mustache guy" is drafting right behind me and the defending FFOC champ, Shane Schroeder is drafting in the 6 spot, and Zebb "the party animal" is in the 2 spot. Scottie Horton, is drafting 7th. He's the only final 15 member in this draft. I doubt he'll be paying much attention to this team on Sunday as he has a little big more riding on his skyt 2 hotty team.

The draft is rounded out with Brian Johnson who has the first pick. I believe he was a bartender at the final 15 last year. I don't recognize the name and Stan mentioned that one or two of the bartenders saw how much fun the contest was last year, so they wanted in on the action this year. Finally there's Tom Yates. Another name that I'm not familiar with.

I will try to post the Bellagio draft as we progress on Saturday. I'm very interested to see how it goes since I know my draft lists are far different from the pre-season draft lists. Do you go with the best players or the best match ups? I'm also interested to see who shies away from Inday and New Orleans players in fear that they will pull out their starters early.

7 hours til my flight leaves! To sleep or not to sleep?

Top 10 Reasons I didn't make the top 15

Everyone has their own 'what if' stories as there are so many plays on a weekly basis that are out of the norm and influence fantasy scoring. At the end of the year, everyone feels it's necessary to post a top 10 list about everything. Here are 10 key plays/reasons why I missed the top 15 and a free trip to Vegas by 2.4 stinkin points!

10> Kris Brown missed 52 yd FG at the end of the half (6 point swing)

9> I forgot to do a shot of Jim Beam before Monday's game to get karma on the side of my Jim Beam team

8> Brett Favre. It came out this week that like most other weeks, he frequently audibled from a run play to a pass play. Guess who has Adrian Peterson?

7> Jason Campbell getting hurt. If I would had the stats Todd Collins racked up while he was in for Campbell, Vegas would be all mine!

6> Five players on my bench scoring at least 17.5 points. Not that I even considered starting any of these players (Heap, Barber, Charles, Eli, V. Young), but it shows how deep of a team I have. Charles is the only one who got serious consideration when making out my line up.

5> Cullen Jenkins. He had a point blank shot at Roethlisberger on the last drive and missed him. That resulted in a 4 point swing as the Steelers got a TD on the next play.

4> Instant replay. A sack and fumble recovery for my Packers D was overturned by replay which showed Big Ben's arm was going forward when the ball was knocked out. Don't know if it
was "indisputable", but I agree with the ruling of incomplete.

3> Jim Zorn. What was with the fake FG call? I can understand the element of surprise, but once the Giants took a time out, did he think they didn't come up with a plan to stop that play? This gave Beasts ii 4 extra points getting him into the top 15.

2> Jason Campbell's pick 6. I don't think Campbell played bad, but this pass was a horrible mistake by him. Davis was open on the screen and he just over shot him by 5 yards giving the Giants an easy TD. I lost one point and Beasts ii gained 6 points. (7 point swing)

1> Dom Capers! How does the so called #1 defense in the league let a team drive 86 yards in 2 minutes with only 1 time out left? By only rushing 3 guys when they have 3 inexperienced defensive backs. Capers said later that he didn't want to lose the lead with one big play. That would have been a lot better than losing on 6 plays that ate up all of the remaining time! If you rush 5 guys, you still have 6 guys covering 4. As bad as Pitt's offensive line is, the receivers won't be able to get more than 10 yards down field by the time Roethlisberger has someone ready to hit him. Instead you give him all day and let the receivers get down field to spread apart your defense and create large holes. Brilliant! Maybe I should blame the school of defensive coaching because Capers isn't the only coordinator who does this. As the old saying goes...it's called a PREVENT defense because it PREVENTS you from winning. It also PREVENTED me from going to Vegas on FFOC's tab.

Bah Humbug!

Kicked in the balls

That's exactly how I felt after the game last night. It was brought up in the forums this weekend that people would rather have a terrible week and have no chance at making the cut, than get close to the cut only to see someone pass you at the end or just come up short. I agreed then, and it hits home now.

The final cut line was 153.50 and my Jim Beam team finished a mere 2.4 points behind at 151.10. I decided to watch the game at my local hangout, the Grafton Bowl and Sports Bar, so I didn't do a live game blog, but here's a recap of my night...

The game starts and I have butterflies in my stomach awaiting an emotional night. The Giants open the game with an 85 yard drive which eats up almost 10 minutes of the first period. Definitely not the start I wanted since Steve Smith only accounted for 12 or 13 of those yards. No problem. Washington has the ball now and I can rack up some points on the weak secondary of the Giants.

Oops. It didn't matter who was playing in the secondary as the Giants D-line took over and dominated the first 3 plays. A sack and 2 incompletions later, and Campbell was off the field favoring his left shoulder. This could be a longggggggg night.

On their 2nd drive, the Giants march down the field again and once again Ahmad Bradshaw runs it in for the score. Now I have another team to contend with for the top 15 as 1st class to vegas suddenly jumped into contention with the quick 17 points from bradshaw. The good news is that Washington will now have to air it out. The bad news is they had to keep Campbell upright.

JC completed a few passes in the next drive, but penalties nullified them. The 4 play "drive" ended with a 1 yard pass to the Midget on 3rd and 10. We're half way through the 2nd quarter and I have less than 2 points. At this point, I turned to one of my friends and said "Campbell's not even going to make it to half time at this rate."

Just when I had begun to realize that it wasn't going to happen, a short Steve Smith TD gives me life. He was up to 9 points and with Washington having to throw the ball, I got my first bit of adrenaline and actually felt like I was in the game.

Campbell then got some protection and moved the ball a little. However, another sack ended the drive. I didn't think Campbell could take much more pounding. The o-line definitely couldn't protect him, so when would the coaching staff realize this and go to some max protection plays?

After yet another Giants score, the Skins got the ball with a few minutes left and down 24-0. This definitely meant some passes for Campbell. Unfortunately, he got sacked again on his sore shoulder and this time it knocked him out of the game. I now realized the lights were about to go out on my FFOC season and it wasn't even half time. To add insult to injury, on the very next play, Todd Collins hits Santana Moss for a 50 yard play as he gets time that Campbell never did. Eventually the half ended with the worst fake field goal attempt I've ever seen. Jim Zorn should have been fired at half time for that call alone! Little did I know that this play would have a huge impact in the final 15.

At half time, I'm just hoping that the training staff can duct tape Jason Campbell's non throwing shoulder together so he can play in the second half. There's a shift change at the Grafton Bowl and Goody arrives with bad news. He said that Phil Simms was informed that Campbell is done for the game. Then Suzy Colber comes on the air and updates us that Jason Campbell is done for the game. OK...time to drink!

Just as the prongs of the fork start to pierce my skin, I see #17 under center for the first play of the 2nd half! The skins mix in some runs with short passes and actually put together a great drive. Campbell gets over 70 yards and a TD pass on the drive getting him up to 7 points for the game. I now have hope with plenty of time left.

The Giants then go 77 yards for another TD without Steve Smith being involved. As Manning throws his 2nd TD, I wish that I listened to my friend Chad who said I had steel balls trusting my fate with Jason Campbell instead of Eli Manning. I never truly considered playing Manning against the #4 ranked pass defense over Campbell, so that decision doesn't bother me.

Time to rack up some more yards and hopefully another TD....or you can throw a pick 6 on the first play vaulting Beasts II above the cut line and making my job tougher. With the score now 38-6 and Campbell with a dislocated shoulder, I assume this will be his last drive of the game, so I need some points in the worst way. He puts together another TD drive which puts me right on the cusp. However, Mason got tackled at the 1 preventing me from getting 4 key points to put me above the cut line and instead Ganther vultured the 1 yd TD. I had another chance to gain some much needed points as they went for 2, but once again, they ran the ball. Damn you Sherm Lewis! That's what you get for calling my friend an angry drunk in Green Bay 10 years ago!

At this point, I get updates from my brother and friends watching the live cut line on FFOC.com saying that I'm now only 4.24 points away from the cut line and I have a full quarter to do it! It's at this point where I'm feeling golden again and the butterflies are back.

I finally get a stop out of the Skins defense, but then a fight breaks out. Break it up! Break it up! Oops...Haynesworth decides to start throwing hay makers like he's Butterbean and the yellow kerchiefs start flying. Way to go moron! Thankfully the Giants scored on the next play. I was teased slightly as I could only see the '2' on Manningham's jersey as he went into the endzone and I thought it was Steve Smith. It's ok. I still have plenty of time to get the 4 points I need.

Campbell starts the next drive with a big 20 yard run, and I'm so close to the top 15 now that I can smell it. You really don't want to know what that cut line smelled like, so I'll spare you the details. After a few completions, I get the text that I'm within a point and need only 20 more yards passing. Then Campbell gets sacked making it 2nd and long. Two bad throws makes it 4th and 20. They go for it, and he throws another interception. Not only do I lose a point, but the team that's just ahead of me is Beasts II who gains a point for the interception. Double Doh!

The Giants have it wrapped up, so they put in Carr. I figure the skins can stop them, but I also had a feeling that Campbell's night was over. Why risk further injury in this blowout? On 3rd down, Steve Smith catches another pass, but gets tackled after a short gain. Any points help at this point. Campbell comes back out with over 5 minutes left and I only need a few measly points. I told the bartender to get the bottle of Jim Beam ready.

A few quick completions rack up 20+ yards, and I figure that I'm once again within a point of the cut line. Then yet another sack and a few more incompletions and my stomach sinks. The entire time, I'm thinking to myself...Dom Capers cost me! (The Steelers last second TD not only cost my beloved Packers a victory, but it also cost my team 3 key fantasy points as I had the Packers DST)

The Giants get to 3rd down an must pass. Smith is in the game, but the pass goes to Hixon for a first down. Game over. Victory formation for Beasts II. Time to throw up for me. The texts start pouring in asking if I made it, and I have to inform everyone that I came up just short.

Everyone who just missed the cut line can play the 'what if' game, and I will do that in my next blog. However, despite all the little plays here and there, the only play/decision that haunts me is Ben Roethlisberger to Mike Wallace capping an 86 yard drive in 2 minutes with 1 time out. To make it even worse, ESPN has to keep showing the play a hundred times a day to remind me of it. I think I'll start watching the Oxygen channel for the rest of the week!

FFOC Excitement

Many viewers probably turned off the TV at half time tonight because to the average viewer, this was a boring blow out. But to a dozen or so FFOC owners, the game was a nail biter right down to the end. It's fantastic finishes like this that make the FFOC an awesome contest!

Some owners safely got above the cut line early and could celebrate their upcoming trip to Vegas. Some owners had nobody playing and had to root against big plays by the Giants Defense, Jason Campbell and Steve Smith. And other owners kept chasing the cut line as it rose from 148.26 at the beginning of the night to 153.5 at the final whistle.

Congratulations to the following people for earning a fun weekend in Vegas and a chance to win 1 million dollars!

1> Jason G, NY
2> Ron H, CA (only owner with 2 teams in the top 15)
3> Will R, ONT
4> Greg M, OH
5> Robert W, TX
6> Tytus P, MO
7> Scottie H, MS
8> Destinh S, NE
9> Dan S, MI
10> Jeff T, WI
11> Matthew B, TN
12> Joel B, IN
13>Jerry E, CA
14> Chris V, IL

I'm too sick to my stomach to write about the ebb and flow of my night. I will write about it tomorrow. Despite having 5 players on my bench that scored over 17 points, I have no regrets about the lineup I started. However, maybe Scott S was correct in saying that having a deep team is overrated and it's all about having 5 defenses to choose the best match up? After all, I had all those points from qbs, rbs and wrs on my bench yet my defense got me -2. Dom Capers and Mike Wallace will haunt me forever! Especially if the Packers tank the last 2 and miss the playoffs all together.

Time to sleep off my pain. I'll blog more later.

The Agony of Da Feet

All of us who've played fantasy football for years, know that kickers are a crap shoot. My personal theory on kickers is to play a kicker on a team with a good offense which isn't strong passing the ball and is against a good, but not great defense. I don't necessarily like playing kickers against terrible teams, because 4 or 5 extra points isn't always beneficial.

A number of owners felt the impact of kickers this weekend and now probably hate the position more than many head coaches in the NFL. Jay Feely missed two chip shots (one was blocked) resulting in a -5 week. If he had made both field goals, he would of had 7 meaning the misses were a 12 point swing for the teams that had him. The Norsemen2 Vegas dream is over because of Feely as they would be sitting at 151.34, above the cut line, nervously awaiting tonights game.

Another poor performance was turned in by the 2nd most accurate kicker in NFL history...Ryan Longwell...as he doinked a 37 yarder resulting in a -2 scoring week instead of 4. These extra 6 points would have been huge for Bumps & Bruises (143.7), Gridiron Hitmen (142.46) and Delta4Q (131.9 + Hakeem Nicks tonight).

The third kicker letdown was for the current bubble team...Pencil Neck Geek. Apparently the owner was too busy sharpening his/her pencil week 9 to pay attention to the rules or forums stating that no pick ups were allowed after that week. They chose to role into the Vegas bracket with Neil Rackers as their only kicker. I don't see how you can go into a 6 week playoff stretch and not have at least one back up at each position. Kickers probably get hurt less often than other positions, but as we've found out the past few weeks with Suisham, Folk, Hauschka and Elam that a kickers job is only as safe as his last kick. The Geek squad is less than a point below the cut as it stands (148.26) and they had no replacement for the injured Rackers. Although I'm sure some teams would have liked this problem and taken a 0 at kicker instead of the -5 or -2 that Feely and Longwell gave them!

An interesting note is that it's possible that 3 owners from Wisconsin have a chance to make the final 15. Jeff T from Kenosha is pretty much a lock to get in with his 153.04 points plus Hakeem Nicks yet to play. Then you have James from Two Rivers who is currently below the cut line at 138.68 and needs a solid night out of Steve Smith to make the cut. And yours truly, Scott W from Grafton is sitting at 127.82 with Jason Campbell and Steve Smith playing tonight. Since the Packers played a big role in the high cut line this week, it would be appropriate that 3 Wisconsin owners made the trip to Vegas next week.

Once I get my 25 points tonight and am safely above the cut line, I'll wish the rest of you good luck. Until then, I need to look out for my own!

Big plays!

It's midnight and I'm still bouncing off the walls. Thursday night's game was a preview of the high scoring week to come. I figured that 140 points would be good enough for my Jim Beam team to finish in the top 15 and earn a free weekend in Vegas. The cut line is currently 148.26 and rising!

My day began with a review of the weather reports for the games and nothing too alarming for me. I did see that Seattle was supposed to get rain, so I decided to stay with Kris Brown over Mare at kicker (gained 7 points with that decision). I then headed off to my noon bowling league. Thankfully my kicker was my only player going. I was disappointed when Chris and Andre Johnson each had big games. At least neither found the end zone.

Once bowling finished, I bellied up to the bar, opened up my laptop, and let the chase begin! I was in 97th place at 8 points when the Packers game started. Twenty minutes, and an 83 yd Greg Jennings TD later, I was up to 55 points in the blink of an eye. Keeping 140 as the score to get in mind, I figured that if I could get to 100 after the 3 pm games, I'd have a good shot with ADP, Campbell and Moss yet to play.

After the quick start, I hit a lull in the 2nd quarter and I seemed to be in the 50's forever. Then my co-MVP, ARodge, scampered for a 14 yd TD run and I jumped out of my seats. "Jim Beam for everyone" I said to the bartender. By half time, I was around 70 points and doing OK. The third quarter started with a Rodgers to Finley TD and then came another round of Jim Beam! A few long DeSean Jackson catches and another Rodgers TD pass and I was over the century mark. However, the cut line had sky rocketed up over 135. I still felt confident, but I needed more.

As the 3 pm games were winding down, I was at 115 and the Packers had taken the lead. I new this was a great opportunity for sacks and hopefully a pick 6 for my defense. Instead, I was deflated by a 3 man rush, a missed sack by Cullen Jenkins, and a great pass and catch by Roethlisberger. Not only did my home team lose (with no time to get garbage points from Rodgers and Jennings and Finley), but I lost 3 more points from my defense as they have now given up 37 points. Not to mention, I decided to bench Mike Wallace this week in favor of Jason Avant in my big money home league and am now losing because of it.

Devastated, but still liking my chances to make the top 15, I went to bar #2 to watch the Vi-queens game to root on ADP. I saw a few teams ahead of me had Favre and Rice and not many had Peterson. I was counting on him for 15-20 points and possibly more. I figured that a big game would almost guarantee me a spot in the top 15. He started off slow, as they threw the ball a lot and went 3 and out often. However, he managed a second effort TD in the 2nd quarter to prompt me to say "Goody (bartender)...Jim Beam for anyone who wants one!" I needed to keep the karma going for my Jim Beam team as I also sported a Greg Jennings T-shirt and Packers zubaz.

Carolina was having their way and ADP was a big disappointment. He got me 10 points, which kept me alive, but meant I'd need work on Monday. I took some solace that Favre was having a low scoring game. And just when I thought ADP was done, he caught a swing pass with 3 minutes left and broke loose. GO! GO! GO! I was yelling. A TD is just what the doctor ordered. He ended up being tackled after a 63 yard gain and I was feeling good again.

I was receiving texts from my friends Kalen and Pete who are also in the FFOC. They said I was sitting great at about 22 off the cut line with 2 players to go. I went through all the teams tonight and here's how it looks:

cut line: 148.26
Jim Beam: 127.82 with Campbell and S.Smith remaining
teams above me with players left and are below the cut: 10
teams behind me that could leap from me: 0 (some can, but only if I don't make it to the cut line)
score I'd be confident will make the top 15: 156
Points by Campbell and Smith last time these teams played week 1: 18.44

My team was set up perfectly for this week, and it should pay big dividends. How you ask? I have 3 qb/wr combos on this team. I started Rodgers and Jennings, and my other two combos play Monday night (manning/smith and campbell/moss). Because they are at home, and the Giants secondary is bad, I planned on playing Campbell and Moss. However, now that I'm in a good position and just need a decent game out of my qb/wr and not a great game, I am going to go with the steady steve smith instead of moss. The other big reason is that two of the 10 teams ahead of me have smith and are 11 points ahead of me. So as long as Campbell scores 12 points, I will have those 2 teams shut out no matter how many Smith scores.

Even though there are 10 teams ahead of me with players going, most are at least 15 points off the cut with either Tynes, Fred Davis or Nicks playing. Here are the 10 teams:

pigskin mcchickenz	144.5 +	tynes
trthrillers	138.68 +	smith
bkunited	138.18 +	smith
beasts ii	136.26	+ nyg
bruin nation	133.76	+ nicks
midway monsters	132.02	+ tynes
delta 4q	131.9	+ nicks
super system xxxv	129.2	+ tynes
super system xv	128.48	+ f.davis
nytcxpress1	127.84	+ f.davis

Pigskin has a good chance of getting above the cut line and replacing team awesome. So I will either need to pass them to get in, or make it to the next dead team above the cut which is eric h (hottails and screams 7) at 151.74 pts.

I give my team a 60% chance of making the top 15. Even if I do, I can't realistically think I'll have a chance at winning the million dollar top prize since I'll be near the bottom of the standings of the 15 and will have to make up 20+ points. Possible, but not likely.

I am 100% confident in going with Campbell and Smith tomorrow. I won't second guess not starting Manning if he does well. The Skins have the 4th ranked pass defense and the Giants are 9th, but have been very bad of late. Also, Campbell has the hot hand as he's had multiple TD passes in each of the last 3 weeks and has been over 230 yards the last 4. OK...now that I look at Manning's numbers for the season and the past 4 weeks, I'm having second doubts. I guess tomorrow will be a research day. Eeny meeny miney moe.....

Too early to tell

Two games are now in the books and so far we have...
THE GOOD: Drew Brees only scored 13.32 pts
THE BAD: Big games out of popular players such as Dallas Clark and Miles Austin
THE UGLY: The weather on the east coast which is where 80% of my team plays.

I've just checked the weather forecasts for the games tomorrow and Monday. Even though it will be cold in Pittsburgh, the Packers pass game should not be affected much as there should be minimal winds. However, Philadelphia is looking at 15-25 mph winds, which I don't like. I thought about sitting DeSean Jackson because of this, but I predict a blow out with the niners going cross country on a short week, so hopefully D-Jax can capitalize with another long TD or two or 5.

Seattle is supposed to have rain showers, so I've decided to go with Kris Brown as my kicker. He can have great games with a lot of long fg's, but he can also miss a lot. I'll take my chances that he's accurate in the dome tomorrow.

My starting lineup is like this:
Aaron Rodgers @ Pit
Adrian Peterson @ Car
Ray Rice vs Chi
DeSean Jackson vs SF
Greg Jennings @ Pit
Santana Moss vs NYG (may switch to Smith Monday night if I'm sitting good and just need 6+ out of my WR
Jermichael Finley @ Pit
Jason Campbell vs NYG
Kris Brown @ StL
Green Bay @ Pit

I have a double good reason to cheer for my green and gold this weekend. If the Packers get shut down by the Steel Curtain, so will my chances of getting the FFOC to pay for my trip to Vegas as a final 15 member.

As I see it, the following teams should feel pretty good about their chances of making it to Vegas:

The Eraser - current leader with 84.92 points and has good match ups left with R. Rice, Charles and Andre Johnson. He could easily reach the 160 point mark which will safely get them in.

NYTCExpress2 - 72.42 pts out of 3 players. Has Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson who should each score at least 16 points. I also like Aaron Rodgers and OchoCinco's match ups

There are 3-6 other teams in pretty good shape, but still need a few players to step up with above average games. Even though I'm currently 97th out of 97, my dream is still alive. All I ask is that I have a realistic chance going into Monday night's game. It's definitely going to be an intense Sunday for me! GO PACK GO! GO PACK GO!

Game 1: Indy @ Jacksonville

Tonight is the start of week 15 in the NFL. It's essentially the semi-final round of the FFOC. For me though, it's the finals, as my only goal was to get at least one team to Vegas. The money is definitely nice, but being a VIP for a weekend and having my first experience of watching games with people that I'm competing against would be unforgettable.

Last years finalists continue to reminisce on their experiences from last year. The defending champ, Shane Schroeder is still alive. I would be interested to hear his feelings on his second go around in Vegas if he makes it. I can't imagine he'll have the excitement of the other owners because he's been there done that. He'll probably sport some new trendy hat that he spent some of his winnings on. He'll also get hounded like a rock star by the other owners asking him the obvious questions that he's answered a million times...."What did you do with your money?" "Where you nervous doing the games?" "Do you have hot women throwing themselves at you like you're Tiger Woods?" Now that I think about it, Shane may be hoping that he doesn't make it to Vegas, as crazy as that sounds.

Tonight we have Indy and Jacksonville. Like many owners, I don't have anyone involved. Even though I have Dallas Clark in my high stakes home league, I hope he gets shut out tonight as he is the most owned player. 26 teams have Dallas Clark on their roster, and I imagine at least 20 of them will have him starting. I know a few teams had his 22+ points on the bench last week because they have the TD stud Vernon Davis as well. If only we could trade in the FFOC!?!?!?!

Dallas Clark is probably the only player I worry about tonight. Sure, Peyton can have a huge game, but only 9 teams own him. Same goes for Jones-Drew who's owned by 6 teams. Here is my top 10 players I'll be rooting against this weekend:

10> Brett Favre - owned by 14 (and disowned by thousands of us Packers fans)
9> Brandon Marshall - owned by 24
8> Matt Schaub - owned by 18
7> Miles Austin - owned by 30
6> Vernon Davis - owned by 20
5> Dallas Clark - owned by 26
4> Drew Brees - owned by 31
3> Eagles DST - owned by 30
2> Andre Johnson - owned by 29
1> Chris Johnson - owned by 28

A special thanks to Aaron "sweater mustache guy", a 2008 finalist, for tabulating the 'owned by' totals used in this blog.

Dream result - Jacksonville 14 Indy 9
Probable result - Jacksonville 24 Indy 16
Worst result - Indy 42 Jacksonville 0

I won't be watching much of this game, but be assured I will check the box score as soon as I can.

How High will the bar be?

As mentioned in my previous blog, I will have to wait longer than most to find out if I have a good chance to finish in the top 15 and get a spot in Vegas. Not only do I not have anyone playing in the Thursday or Saturday night game, but I will probably only have 3 players going in the noon games on Sunday...Ray Rice or Jamal Charles..my kicker...and DeSean Jackson.
The Packers game will be huge for me as I could have up to 4 players in that 3:15 kilt in Pittsburgh. I don't like the match up, however I may end up putting all me eggs in that basket. Rodgers and Finley will be in my lineup for sure and I may also play Jennings and the Packers DST.

My hope is that my Packers and Adrian Peterson (Sunday night) will put me within reasonable striking distance going into Monday night. I don't see a whole lot of teams having players going Monday night, so I should know what score I have to shoot for out of my QB/WR combo. I'm still undecided which way I want to go on Monday night.

I have Manning/Smith and Campbell/Moss. The smart way to go is to start the same qb/wr combo rather than mix teams. However, I may still start the Redskins combo as well as Steve Smith giving me 3 players in that game. What makes my decision tough is that I grade Campbell much higher than Eli this week, but Smith ahead of Moss. Campbell has been playing great now that they've gone to a short passing game. Because of the new offensive philosophy, Santana Moss has been invisible. He's come on lately, but still hasn't been finding the endzone or the 100 yd mark. I could really be nuts and Bench Rodgers and have 4 guys going Monday night with Manning/Smith/Campbell/Moss however I don't see I high scoring game so there wouldn't be much value in that. Rodgers will be in my starting lineup.

I love having QB/WR combos and that's why this was my favorite team back in September and it's proven to withstand the grind of the vegas bracket. I lost out to Dwayne (Super System) in my league championship, but it was a tier 2 team so I still made the Vegas bracket.

I can't recall ever asking another person's opinion on 'who to start', but this week with so much on the line and so many even players, I will be asking trusted sources what they would do. I will make my own decision in the end, but someone may have a good angle that I didn't think of on a certain player or match up.

When you're looking at the live scoring after the noon games, don't just concentrate on the teams on the first page. Look for Jim Beam at the bottom of the list because I'll still have 420 minutes left to be played! Listen for my footsteps.

Cards vs 49ers on Monday Night

As it stands now, the cut line is 126.10 in the Las Vegas bracket of the FFOC. The cut line went up 20 points during the shootout between the Eagles and Giants last night. I don't anticipate that big of a jump tonight. Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis are the players owned by more owners around the cut line than anyone else. Here are some stats going into tonights game:

- 10 teams currently above the cut have less than 130 points with no players remaining. Good effort, but you won't be going to Vegas unless you enter the Bellagio bracket

- 9 teams between 130 and 135 have no players remaining. A few of you will squeak thru barring some huge nights. You'll definitely be sweating with every score or long play

- 7 teams are within 10 of the cut line and have 2 players going tonight. 5 should advance for sure and the teams with Boldin/Davis and Davis/Arizona may have to sweat it out

- 13 teams in all are within 5 of the current cut line of 126.10 and have at least 1 player playing.

- 16 teams are 5-10 points below the cut line with at least one player playing

- 16 teams are 10-15 points below the cut line. 5 of them have 2 players and 11 have 1 player left (Boldin - 3, Warner - 2, Davis - 2, Gore, Crabtree, Smith, Fitzgerald)

- 15 teams are 15-20 points below the cut line. 4 have 2 players going, 1 has 3 players (warner, smith, fitzgerald) and should make the cut, 10 have only 1 player and need an above average performance (davis - 4, boldin - 3, warner, fitzgerald, arizona)


I plugged in the following guestimated average scores for the players going tonight. Some are on the conservative side and some are probably too generous:
Warner - 17 pts
Smith - 15
Gore - 13
Boldin - 10
Fitzgerald - 10
Hightower - 9
Davis - 7
Crabtree - 7
Wells - 5
Rackers - 6
Nedney - 5
Breaston - 5

Using these totals, the cut line moves to 134.54. There are a lot of teams right around this number, so every yard at the end of the game is going to make a difference. Hopefully the kicker and defensive live scoring is accurate tonight. Not many have Arizona so it shouldn't be a big impact on the cut line that appears in the live scoring.

Obviously Warner is capable of going for 30+ and if he does, Boldin and/or Fitzgerald will most likely be over 20. This could move the cut line a few more points, but I don't see it going above 138. I like my prediction of 134.54, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up a few points lower than that.

After reviewing all the teams and the scores, I no longer think my team is a guarantee to move on sitting at 129.48 pts and Michael Crabtree tonight. An early Crabby TD will let me relax and watch how the cut line affects the other teams. The last thing I want is an Arizona domination and a 28-3 half time score with Warner throwing for 250 yds and 3 TDs. It could happen against the Niners secondary, but I doubt it will.

Predictions for tonight
score: Arizona 27 San Francisco 17
Cut line: 134.54
Jim Beam final score: 137.01

Good luck to those of you on the cusp of joining William and Brian in the final 97!

Adrenalize

Def Leppard's album cover couldn't capture picked the perfect word to describe today. The farther we get into the Vegas cut line, the more intense it gets. Today was absolutely crazy with all the huge fantasy days for players such as Chris Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Andre Johnson, Ray Rice, and many others.

This morning I made 3 changes to my top team (Jim Beam) and I'm always skeptical about last minute changes after over analyzing everything. I had hoped that 2 of the 3 worked, but they didn't. Thanks to a long 3rd quarter TD run by Charles and very few touches by Rice in the 2nd half, two of my moves proved out to be a wash (Charles for Rice and Jennings for S.Smith (nyg)). However, the 3rd one may end up haunting me for a long time. Since Vince Young was set on playing, I benched Eli for him. This cost me almost 20 points. Young got hurt in the 3rd quarter, so the difference may not have been as great if they both stayed healthy.

Last week Jermichael Finley came to my rescue. This week it is DeSean Jackson. His monster night puts me 4 points above the unofficial cut line. I know that the Eagles defense is being shorted 4 points right now and there are probably other scoring issues which will move the cut line slightly. I'm not too worried about being passed up right now as I have Crabtree playing. About 20 people have to pass me, so if I get at least 5 out of Crabby I'll be confident that I can do this all over again next week. I have not looked at the match ups yet, but I'm hoping that Tennessee has a tough match up to slow down all the Chris Johnson owners.

This contest is so awesome! It's even more fun this year now that I'm still alive with one week before Vegas. However, I was still pumped up each week last year when I was out early. I got a friend to join this year, and barring a 30 point week out of Vernon Davis, he will be eliminated this week. He said that he's already addicted to this contest and the cut line. No matter how strong or weak your team is, to think that you're still alive to win a million dollars playing fantasy football is just crazy! I think about it constantly and can't sleep. I'm sure I'll spend all night studying the teams with players remaining to ensure my confidence that my spot in the final 97 is safe.

If tomorrow night's game has as many big plays as the Eagles/Giants game did tonight, then I'll be nervous. I'm sure the owners who thought they were safe at 130+ were cringing with every DeSean Jackson score as the cut line kept going up and up and up. It moved over 20 points in this game. I knew it was a high scoring week, but I never envisioned a cut line being over 130 and it may end up over 135. Just insane!

If my team continues on a roll and makes the top 15, I will have to sport 2 jerseys now. D-Jax on Saturday and Finley on Sunday. Who will step up for me next week to be the 3rd jersey I need to purchase?

Pressure

As I'm sure most of the Las Vegas owners are, I am frantically double checking my lineups and making last second changes as I second guess myself.

My best team remaining is Jim Beam because I have a lot of good options and can play match ups each week. However, having good depth can also be a detractor as you may over think things and end up with plenty of points on the bench. Here are my tough decisions on the Jim Beam team.

RB2 - Ray Rice vs Detroit or Jamal Charles vs Buffalo

Originally, Rice was a no brainer because of the easy match up and he's been putting up over 100 yds of offense every week. Upon final review, I went with Charles because of Buffalo's terrible run defense and Willis McGahee. Rice only gets a chance to score long TD's, which hurts his value. Kansas City should be running plenty, so both Charles and Rice should get 20+ touches. However, Charles' ability to get goal line carries put him ahead for me. For the record Adrian Peterson is my #1 back.

WR - DeSean Jackson, Steve Smith (NYG), Michael Crabtree, Greg Jennings, Santana Moss

I'm starting D-Jax for sure. His upside is what I need and Philly will be throwing the ball a lot this week. I had Smith in the lineup because I had Eli Manning at OP for a while. I decided to replace him with Jennings because of his good game last week and the Bears weak secondary. It appears it won't be too windy in Chicago, so the Packers should have no problem moving the ball and scoring points. Crabtree also made my starting lineup because it's his first time to shine in prime time. He gets plenty of targets each game and Arizona's pass defense is in the bottom half of the league. It's also nice to have an opportunity to make the cut on Monday night. Moss was never a consideration.

OP - Vince Young or Eli Manning

Because I won't be around to see late scratches, I was going to play it safe with Eli (and in turn start Steve Smith). However, Young has the better match up and I love running qb's in this format. Young getting 30 yards rushing is like another 75 yards passing each week. He also has the ability to get rushing td's. I fear he won't do much running or throwing against the lowly Rams to save his ailing knee, but I'm going with his upside. Eli has a lot of stinker games and Philly has a solid pass defense. I'm staying with the hot hand in Vince Young.

I hope at least 2 of these 3 turn out the right move. I hate over thinking things, but I can't help it. I'm sure I'm not the only owner in this boat.

Bad luck to my competitors! I need to get at least 1 of my 2 teams to next week.

Team analysis

The pressure's mounting. The Vegas bracket is down to 362 teams and I have two of them. Jim Beam is a team that I loved from the start and thought was my best team. The team almost let me down, but a huger than huge game by Jermichael Finley on Monday night kept the team alive. Jager Meister is a banged up team that's very thin. Both teams are led by the top point getter, Aaron Rodgers.

Jim Beam
QB - Rodgers, E. Manning, Young, Campbell
RB - ADP, Rice, Charles, Barber, C. Taylor
WR - S. Smith (NYG), Crabtree, S. Moss, D. Jackson, Jennings
TE - Finley, Heap
K - Mare, K. Brown
TDS - Bengals, Packers

I went with 3 QB-WR combos which I like to do. It allows for big weeks when you get the right match up. I also love that I have flexibility at the OP position with Manning, Young and Campbell.
The RB's have been solid, but not great. ADP and Rice have been my starters most every game except for when Charles played St Louis. Then I benched Rice. Not many teams still alive have ADP, so I need him to go on a D'Angelo Williams-like tear the next few weeks.
No stud WR's. Smith was early in the year, but didn't start a lot for me. DJax has had some great games and some dud games. His return this week could give my team a spark. Jennings has greatly disappointed me and will probably be on my bench again this week as he was last week.

As long as I play the right QB at OP, I like this teams chances to make it through another week. The depth is good so I can play match ups each week. Scott S thinks that defenses are the key and team depth is overrated. Since you can't have 7 super stars to start every week, I feel depth is important, so you can play good match ups such as Charles against St Louis or Barber against Tampa Bay.

Jager Meister
QB - Rodgers, Cassel, Sanchez
RB - MJD, Mendenhall, R. Williams, Wells, R. Brown (IR)
WR - Boldin, Burleson, Holmes, S. Smith (NYG), Crabtree, Collie
TE - Gonzalez, Keller
K - Longwell, Prater
TDS - Vikings, Bengals

This is one of my rare teams that has a solid WR corp. Boldin and Burleson each get at least 8 targets per week. I've started Holmes at the right times and Steve Smith carried me early. The reason I don't like this team is the OP spot. I feel in order to win in the FFOC you need 2 solid QB's. My 2nd QB is definitely well below average. I've been getting away with Cassel and I like his match up this week. However, this will eventually be my downfall the week Rodgers has a down game.
My RB's are solid, but not great. Mendenhall has a great match up this week. I haven't been playing Williams at all, but if the match up is right, I may slide him into the OP spot some week....not this week. With Wayne being covered by Champ this weekend, I'm debating on giving Austin Collie a start. The problem with him is I can't guarantee he'll get a lot of looks. I believe they will have to use him a lot this week, but is it worth risking the benching of a #1 WR that has been producing week in and week out? It's decisions like these that can make or break a team, right Kurt?

If the stars align and both of these teams make it to the final 97 (plus 6 promoted teams), I'll work on my back flip and buy some lottery tickets. However, I'd be very satisfied if only my Jim Beam team advances. All I ask for is a chance! I can't imagine what next week will be like if I get within one week of Vegas and the shot at a million dollars! All I can think about these days is the FFOC contest. Last year was fun following the cut line after I was eliminated in week 13. Actually having a team still alive is 100 times better.

Packers-Ravens game blog

We're 2o minutes from kickoff and I haven't been able to keep my mind off this game all day. This kind of suspense is what the FFOC bracket cut lines do to a person. To think that one lucky and skillful person will become a millionaire because of fantasy football!

As of now, the Vegas bracket cut line is 105.42. The top 362 scores this week advance to week 14. I have two teams alive, Jager Meister and Jim Beam. I'm confident that the Jager Meister team will make the cut, but Jim Beam is in a lot of trouble unless Jermichael Finley gets at least 9 points for me.

Predictions for the game:
FINAL SCORE: Green Bay 21 Baltimore 19 (originally predicted 19-14 Baltimore, but no Ed Reed means one more TD for Green Bay)

Aaron Rodgers: 16.27 pts
Donald Driver: 9.4 pts
Ray Rice: 19.74 pts

I'm ready for some football!

***All times are CDT

7:42 pm - Finally! The ball is in the air at Lambeau Field. GO PACK GO!

7:55 pm - Packers take the opening kickoff and march down the field for a short field goal . Cutline has jumped up to 107.22 in part due to the defenses getting max points. No Punt intended, Baseballmafia.com-3 and Boston Crabs are happy as they are below the cut line and have only Crosby playing tonight.

8:13 pm - Who needs Ed Reed? Zbikowski gets an easy pick as teams hoping the cut line doesn't move much are happy. Both Rice and Rodgers have lost a point for turnovers. Cut line is currently 107.56

8:23 pm - A pretty uneventful first quarter filled with turnovers and minimal yards. Baltimore appears to have good holes in the running game and Green Bay has been able to get Jones and Finley matched up on linebackers, so I anticipate the scoring to pick up soon. Cut line is now 107.60.

8:52 pm - I don't even get to sulk about Finley losing his balance and not being able to get into the end zone as Rodgers goes right back to him the next play. The Rodgers to Finley touchdown gives me some hope for the Jim Beam team as I am no up to 91.46 pts. I figured that I needed at least 9 out of Finley to have a chance and he already has over 11 pts. Let the scoring begin! Cut line is now 109.44.

9:09 pm - Arodge to Driver for a TD makes a lot of nervous owners very happy. The cut line has now crept up to 110.36 as a few more dead teams have now been eliminated (pending teams going backwards). My Jager Meister team is now safely up to 257th place and over 118 points. I will still be alive next week with at least 1 team!

9:15 - Green Bay leads 17-0 at the half. Flacco to Heap was a popular combo for garbage yards at the end of the half. As expected, Woodson has all but shut down Derrick Mason. Flacco owners are happy not to get a cheap interception by Flacco on the hail mary. Half time cut line is 112.14. I noticed that Chad S lost one of his teams this week as Cocktails and Dreams is done with 109.6 pts.

9:42 pm - Not much happening in the 3rd quarter. Finley hurt his knee blocking and I'm guessing he's done for the game, so that's bad news for me. I believe I was the only team in contention that had him. Now it's up to Rice and Rodgers to get me 20 more points this half and over the hump. Cut line is up to 112.26. So far 39 dead teams have been passed by the cut line tonight.

9:52 - Ravens get their first good drive of the game and a touchdown. The biggest impact the TD has is to lower the GB defense points a few notches. Two big plays on the drive that could have been. First, the Packers got away with a pass interference at the 1, which could have led to a much needed Ray Rice TD. Later in the drive, Flacco had Mason wide open for what probably would have been a TD, but pressure caused an off target throw and Washington got a TD on the next play. Cut line is currently 112.64. A few teams (Baby need new shoes, West Coast Wise Guys 6, and Glens 1st and goal) dropped below the cut line after losing 3 points from the Packers D.

10:04 - Rodgers throws an interception that bounced off Driver's leg. If I were Donald T, I probably would complain that I shouldn't lose a point because it wasn't the quarterback's fault. However, I've played long this game long enough to know that sometimes the breaks go your way and sometimes they don't. An interception is an interception. The good news is that with the Ravens TD, the game is close and the Packers will start airing it out again. McGahee came in and vultured the TD from Rice as usual. One reason why I haven't played Rice much this year as I have other good options at RB. Cut line: 112.20 It keeps dropping and giving some owners false hope.

10:14 - End of the 3rd quarter. Cut line 112.60
Some side notes...Finley is back in the game which gives my Jim Beam team a better chance. I'm at 104.66 at the moment so I could use one more TD out of any of my 3 players. Looks like the cut line will end up around 115. Congrats to FFOC rookie Pete (maddawgs) as a few Jennings catches has allowed him to comfortably get over the cut line at 115.72.

10:17 - Crosby misses a chip shot for -3 pts moving Batnchucker, Thundering Herd 2, Endzone Dance, JadgTigerVI, and KaHoona below the cut line which is now 112.28. Somewhere Donald T is smiling.

10:28 - Just as I was beginning to feel less comfortable about my Jim Beam team making the cut, I felt the adrenaline rush that the live cut line brings to the FFOC contest. My my Jermichael Finley caught a pass at the 3 and broke through for a touchdown. 12 more points for my team and now I'm at 118 and feeling safe! The cut line has moved up to 114.50 with 10 minutes left in the game.

10:52 - The game is all but over, but people can still get garbage points from Flacco, Mason, Rice and the Packers defense. The Crosby field goal makes up for his earlier miss and with 2 minutes left, the cut line has risen to 115.18. As a result, 57 teams who were above the cut line before tonight are now below it and hoping the Packers give up more points and lower the cut line.

11:02 - Rice had a 21 yard run to start the garbage points and that got at least 6 players over the cut line. The game ended with a sack to give the Packers D another point. I'm too tired to review who this helped and who it hurt. I will write about it tomorrow.

All I know is that both my teams are through to week 14 and are a few points ahead of the unofficial cut line of 115.72 so I don't have to worry about stat changes or live scoring errors. My friends Pete and Kalen also advanced to next week. Hopefully at least 2 of our 4 teams can keep the dream alive for the last cut week. I haven't looked at any match ups so I don't know how my teams look. I just want to celebrate this weeks victories for a few days before worrying about it.

Congrats to all who advanced. I'm out!

Cut line fun

As it stands going into the Monday night game, the unofficial cut line is 105.42. Here is the data I've gathered so far:

- 57 teams with less than 115 pts and no players left
- 23 teams are between 115 and 118 with no players left
- 29 teams are above the cut, but under 110 with 1 player left
- 9 have rodgers
- 6 have driver
- 4 have rice
- 3 have crosby and green bay
- 2 have jennings
- 1 has grant and baltimore
- 16 teams are between 110 and 115 with 1 player left that's not aaron rodgers (I'm assuming he'll have at least 8 pts and get the teams in this range over 118)
- 5 have driver
- 3 have crosby and mason
- 2 have baltimore
- 1 has rice, jennings and green bay
- 58 teams within 10 of the cut line, 21 have 2 players left and the other 37 have one player
- 9 have rice
- 8 have rodgers
- 7 have driver
- 3 have mason, crosby and green bay
- 2 have Jennings
- 1 have grant and baltimore
- 71 teams are within 20 of the cut line. 7 have 3 players left, 31 have 2 left and 33 have just 1 left.
teams with 1 left:
- 12 rodgers
- 8 rice
- 6 driver
- 2 mason
- 1 flacco/jennings/crosby/gb/balt
top 2 player combos remaining:
- 8 rodgers/rice
- 4 rodgers/driver
- 3 rodgers/jennings
- 2 rice/crosby and rodgers/mason

- 55 teams are 20+ points off the cut line and have at least 2 players left.
- The teams that have 5 players left have 39.8 and 65.7 points going into tonight
- The teams with 4 players left have 51.12, 65.36, 67.20 and 68.46 points
- 14 teams are at least 30 points out with 3 players remaining
- 11 teams are 20-30 points out with 3 players remaining
- 24 of the teams at least 20 points out have 2 players remaining with the most common combos being:
- 7 rodgers/rice
- 4 rice/jennings
- 2 rodgers/grant, rodgers/gb, rodgers/driver, and flacco/driver

My guess is that the 21 teams with 2 players left and are within 10 of the cut line, will all get to 105 and probably 115 which will eliminate the first 21 people who are done and above the cut line. This would move the cut to 109.92. I'll put the 7 teams who have 3 players left and are at 85 points or more above this number. If Rodgers has at least 15 points, that puts 8 more teams at 110 or higher. If Driver or Rice have a big night (15+), then another 10-20 teams who are below the cut will go above 110. I will also put the team which is at 65.7 points with 5 players left above 110. That's an average of 10 per player, which isn't a lot.

With an average game, I see the cut going all the way up to 111.90. If Green Bay scores at least 20 points, then I see the cut line going up to 114.0. If Rodgers and Driver get shut down, the people around 109.0 could squeak through.

It's going to be a fun night and every big play will make a big swing in the cut line. My prediction is that the cut line will end up at 113.88. For my teams, that means I will need 11.03 points out of Rodgers for my JagerMeister team to advance and 42.34 out of my Rodgers/Rice/Finely trio to get my second team (Jim Beam) in. I will be satisfied with one team advancing and will be crushed if neither team can advance. Boldin put my JagerMeister team in good shape and ADP hurt my Jim Beam chances.

If either of these teams make it to the final 15, be assured that I will be a round of shots that match my team name for all FFOC participants and staff members who are in attendance!

Stay tuned for my live game blog tonight. I'd love to hear your predictions as to what the cut line will end up at tonight. Post your prediction in the comments for this blog.

Waiting game

Coming into week 13 of the Vegas bracket, I knew I would be below the cutline and have to wait for the Sunday and Monday night games. I think my teams are in pretty good shape, but injuries and poor performances can happen, so I will watch the last two games nervously.

As we stand now, the cut line is 92.56 in the Vegas bracket. My Jager Meister team sits at 76.06 with Rodgers, Boldin and Longwell yet to play. This team I worry about most as I think Rodgers will struggle against the Ravens defense. My Jim Beam team has 65.04 points with Rodgers, Peterson, Rice and Finley yet to play. Hopefully Peterson has a 15+ point night to give me some breathing room for tomorrow. I anticipate a very big game out of Rice tomorrow against my beloved Packers.

The only lineup decision I half way regret was playing Cassel at OP on my Jager Meister team. I knew he had a very bad match up, as did my 3rd qb, Mark Sanchez. As of this morning, I had Ricky Williams at OP, but decided that even a bad day out of Cassel would net 8 points. I was wrong as Cassel threw for a whopping 84 yards. Another late line up move seems to have paid off as I put in Steve Smith (NYG) for Greg Jennings on my Jim Beam team. Smith dropped an easy TD pass at the end of the game which could have given me 6.5 more points. Oh well.

I'm sure that since I'll be close to the cut line this week, I will go through all the teams I'm competing with to see how many Rodgers and Rice owners their are. I will be extremely happy if I can get both teams to the next round of cuts. I had bad QB match ups and for a change, my WR's have come through for me with solid weeks.

I definitely anticipate a live game blog tomorrow night since I'll be watching the cut line closely. My dream game would be a shootout with the Packers putting up 30+ points as I'm sure there are a number of Ravens defense owners.

My guess is the cut line will end up around 105. Let's hope ADP and Boldin have big nights and Rice, Fitzgerald and Favre are limited.