Friday, September 23

Match ups...how much weight to put on them

One dilemma that fantasy owners face from week to week is who to start. Later in the season, it gets easier as some players get hurt or are on bye. You also have many players step up to the 'must start' status. The tricky part comes when you have an average player with a great match up. Do you start them ahead of a top FFL player?
Normally, I play match up with running backs, but no other positions. Some teams are definitely susceptible to the run each year, so it's wise to start a rb against these teams (Philly this year). I also like to start rb's on teams I feel will win their game and shy away from those that will lose for obvious reasons. You don't always have the flexibility to play match ups, but when you do, it's a nice luxury.
My preference is to start your best players, unless your top player has a bad match up and your mediocre player has a good match up. I ran into this in one league last week and luckily it paid off. My first 2 picks in this league were Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew. Both sat on my bench last week. Instead I went with the favorable match ups of Fred Jackson (Oak) and James Starks (Car). Lucky for me, it worked, as Jackson (28) and Starks (11.5) both outscored my top rb's (CJ -6.5 MJD -10.7). However, my 2 top rb's will be back in the lineup this week as they have more favorable match ups.
It's very easy to over-think your weekly lineup. My advice is to play your top players every week and play match ups with your other starting spots. On the rare occasion that your top rb/qb is going up against a defense like Pittsburgh and your have an alternate option that has a favorable match up, you can bench a top tier player in favor of a 2nd or 3rd tier guy. I wouldn't make a habit out of benching your top picks, but sometimes it's warranted.

Sunday, September 11

The life of a Fantasy Football owner

As I life long Packers fan, I was quite happy when "my team" stopped Mark Ingram on a last second goalline stand to preserve an 8 point victory over the Saints. However, as a fantasy football owner, I couldn't fully enjoy the victory as much as in the days prior to fantasy football.
The sport of fantasy football has taken over the NFL world. Whether you have a small family league for fun, or are a serious participant spending thousands of dollars on high stakes contests, most people who watch the NFL are in a fantasy football league. As enjoyable as fantasy football is, I believe it has hindered fans and their loyalties to their favorite teams.
When I'm watching the Packers games in a public place, it frustrates me to hear so called Packers fans say it's OK that they just gave up a touchdown because their fantasy player is the one who scored it. That's kind of like saying you're happy you got shot because you weren't killed by the bullet wound. Maybe not the best analogy, but you get my point.
Not only does it affect how people root for their own teams, but people these days are focused in more on the small scroll line at the bottom of the screen than the actual game going on the majority of the screen. Even the tv networks and nfl stadiums have catered towards the fantasy football owner with constant stats and scoring info popping up on screens and scoreboards everywhere.
Fantasy football has also clouded the judgment of many fans. They constantly want to coach to call a play to give the ball to their fantasy players rather than run a play that will work effectively. I've seen Packers fans disappointed after a Rodgers TD pass because he threw it to Nelson instead of Jennings. Disappointed at your team scoring a TD? Really?!?!?
Fantasy football has changed viewing games in many ways, and I found myself in the middle of it on Thursday. I have Mark Ingram on over half of my 18 teams, so although I was jumping up and down when the Packers stopped him at the goalline, a small part of my was disappointed I didn't get those extra 6 points for my fantasy team. Right or wrong, this is the state of the typical NFL fan in the year 2011.

Tuesday, September 6

Evaluation teams in league 156

Jameson (Rodgers, fitzpatrick, mccoy, forte, best, benson, ward, harrison, scott, fitzgerald, v.jackson, marshall, aj green, m.thomas, cribbs, gonzalez, kendricks, henery, baltimore, houston) By far the best team I drafted. 3 stud wr's with 2 other #1 wr's for bye weeks. The best qb along with a top rb and 2 other rb's with top 15 potential. Only and injury to Rodgers can prevent this team from making the league championship.
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Odds to win: 2:1  Heavy favorite

The Scrappers (Brady, Roethlisberger, campbell, mendenhall, s.jackson, lynch, d.thomas, ringer, redman, d.jackson, welker, garcon, smith (car), crabtree, meachem, da.clark, z.miller, hartley, bironas, pittsburgh) - Solid team. Not flashy. Plenty of steady scorers, but lacking the big week players. Sometimes it's slow and steady that wins the race.

Odds to win: 10:1  Contender

teamP28Ccsxis  (Schaub, Kolb, collins, adp, mjd, ingram, d.williams, addai, p.thomas, wayne, collie, l.moore, nelson, hester, gronkowski, hernandez, keller, j.brown, new england, arizona) - RB's is the strength of the team. Sacrificed wr's for it. Good thing for this owner, you can often pick up some solid wr's thru free agency. This will have to be done in order to contend.

Odds to win: 12:1  Pretender

La Arana (stafford, cutler, henne, c.johnson, mcfadden, r.bush, spiller, starks, d.carter, wallace, bryant, boldin, knox, ford, bennett, daniels, celek, rackers, detroit, san diego) - Two explosive rb's and a solid WR corp. QB's are decent, but potentially disastrous.   This is the type of team that can go 15-3 or 6-12.  Too much volatility to really rank this, so I will put them in the middle.

Odds to win: 10:1  Wild card team

Hard Caulk (vick, ryan, cassel, mccoy, turner, f.jones, LT, snelling, t.jones, holmes, colston, edwards, julio jones, roy williams, floyd, graham, winslow, bryan, eagles, chiefs) - As in my other leagues, Zebb had another good draft. Per his MO, he concentrated on qb's and rb's and got his usual wr's in the later rounds. I think he can find 2 reliable wr's, but  he needs one more to be a strong contender. Needs Vick to be back to his 30 ppg in order to pick up the wr's.

Odds to win: 8:1  Contender

Undertakers (Rivers, e.manning, smith, foster, blount, moreno, barber, tate, torain, nicks, bowe, s.johnson, burress, little, evans, v.davis, cook, gostkowski, crosby, jets) - This team could actually be better than mine. If Foster stays healthy, I will probably be playing this team in the finals. He has the 3 strong wr's to go with a stud qb and top 5 rb. Blount could be the key since Moreno's stock has dropped by not getting goal line carries.

Odds to win: 4:1  Favorite in the making

Team A.W.E.C.E.M (freeman, flacco, mcnabb, rice, mathews, bradshaw, stewart, m.bush, hunter, a.johnson, maclin, s.rice, bess, simpson, burleson, m.lewis, gresham, f.davis, vinatieri, bears) - Exhibit A as to why there are 2 stellar teams in this league. Rice and Johnson are studs, but what else does this team have? Not much. This team is the anti-awesome.

Odds to win: 20:1  Needs a miracle

Hot Rats (p.manning, sanchez, hasselbeck, charles, green, f.jackson, karim, ro. brown, g.jennings, harvin, ochocinco, driver, berrian, royal, finley, pettigrew, kaeding, longwell, green bay, new orleans) - Exhibit B. Even if Manning was healthy, this is a weak team. There are 3 or 4 guys on the team that shouldn't even be drafted.        

Odds to win: 30:1  No Chance in Hell 

Drake (bradford, orton, newton, jacobs, helu, hightower, wells, mcgahee, ridley, ca.johnson, white, miles, manningham, sims-walker, d.moore, gates, olsen, seabass, atlanta, denver) - did a great job stock piling wr's, which isn't easy to do. However, they have no qb's or rb's. I like Bradford and Wells, but as qb2 and rb3, not qb1 and rb1. I'll be shocked if this team contends. Could be exhibit C

Odds to win: 15:1  Lonshot

 Courthouse Coyotes #7 (brees, romo, garrard, gore, hillis, grant, bjge, tolbert, hardesty, m.williams (tb), lloyd, britt, s.moss, amendola, h.ward, witten, cooley, cundiff, giants, dallas) - Very strong team. This owner routinely takes a qb with his first 2 picks and he got 2 tier 1 qb's. Not only that, but gore and hillis can be studs. If they come through, then the good, but not great wr's will be acceptable. The bad news for this team is that there are 2 other power house teams in the league.

Odds to win: 6:1  Contender 

Monday, September 5

Evaluating the teams in League 162

Brewers 5 Scrubs 2 (phone draft) (rodgers, schaub, cassel, moreno, best, grant, lynch, starks, morris, fitzgerald, bowe, sims-walker, ford, james jones, da. clark, pettigrew, beckum, carpenter, lions, dolphins) - QB's clearly the strength of the team. RB's are weak, but have potential. Needs 2 of them to step up in order to contend.

Odds to win: 10:1  Contender

Sharks (brady, cutler, campbell, mjd, mcfadden, bjge, jacobs, m.bush, ri williams, wayne, lloyd, crabtree, burress, floyd, burleson, gates, gonzalez, rackers, jets, saints) -Not a fan of this teams wr's. Denver won't throw as much, so Lloyd will be back to being a FFL non factor. Brady and rb's are good, but not good enough to carry this team. 


Odds to win: 15:1   Pretender

Lugnuts #2 (roethlisberger, freeman, newton, adp, d. williams, d.thomas, mcgahee, murray, r.white, m. williams (tb), maclin, smith (car), bess, winslow, gronkowski, heap, janikowski, vinatieri, steelers, giants) - Lacking rb depth. I don't think D'Angelo is consistent enough to start every week. WR's are solid and QB's are as well. Has to hope Moreno gets hurt soon so McGahee and DWill can be used based on matchups.

Odds to win: 10:1  Contender

Naked Bootlegs #1 (sanchez, fitzpatrick, garrard, foster, mendenhall, blount, LT, hardesty, do. brown, nicks, d.jackson, colston, s.johnson, knox, edwards, v.davis, z.miller, gostkowski, packers, houston) - Waited on QB's, and it shows. RB's and WR's are strong and deep. I like the QB's he got, for drafting so late. Definitely should be a force to reckon with.


Odds to win: 3:1  Co-favorite

Special k 3 ( vick, e.manning, kolb, s.jackson, ingram, benson, tolbert, woodhead, ridley, v.jackson, miles, s.rice, amendola, sanders, d.moore, m.lewis, f.davis, keller, henery, rams) - Pretty solid team. Good qb depth. Three rb's that will get plenty of carries. Could lose some ground on teams at TE unless Lewis can repeat his TD performance from last year. I like the Rams defense this year, but they have a tougher schedule, so it would help to have another option.


Odds to win: 8:1  Contender

The Floating Turds (Stafford, mccoy, beck, rice, mathews, p.thomas, wells, helu, torain, ca.johnson, bryant, harvin, julio jones, nelson, little, finley, dickson, crosby, 49ers, dallas) - Really like this team right now. However, they are a Matt Stafford injury away from being mediocre. WR's are solid with depth. Rice is a stud and either Mathews or Wells should be a solid rb2 each week. Now that Grossman is starting, they'd be wise to pick up Shaun Hill and another QB to be an even stronger favorite.


Odds to win: 3:1  Co-favorite

Windy City Hustler (ryan, bradford, tebow, charles, green, r.bush, ringer, hightower, tate,  a.johnson, marshall, welker, collie, simpson, evans, hernandez, cook, kendricks, j.brown, new england) -Pretty decent team. Second rb could be a weak spot. Bye weeks could hurt this team unless they improve the depth.


Odds to win: 12:1  Outside Contender

Famous Horsemen (rivers, p.manning, smith, turner, gore, stewart, snelling, t.jones, holmes, boldin, manningham, l.moore, roy williams, graham, daniels, shiancoe, hartley, gould, baltimore, atlanta) - Despite grabbing qb's and rb's early, the wr's aren't too shabby. If Manning doesn't miss too many weeks, this team could be very strong. Smith has decent match ups the first 2 weeks, so even if Manning doesn't play he should be OK. RB depth is very thin, so Gore needs to stay healthy. Kickers miss too many fg's.


Odds to win 6:1  Serious Contender

Sparkling Wiggles VI (brees, romo, orton, forte, f.jones, addai, r.jennings, spiller, barber, wallace, garcon, britt, aj green, meachem, hester, witten, cooley, celek, kaeding, chargers) - Solid QB's. Needs Felix or Spiller to break out and be a top 15 rb. Both have the talent, but neither has stayed on the field long enough to showcase it. WR's have potential, but aren't consistent. Team has a good start, but needs some good breaks along the way.


Odds to win 15:1  Darkhorse

SS8 (flacco, hasselbeck, mcnabb, c.johnson, mccoy, hillis, bradshaw, f.jackson, ro. brown, g.jennings, ochocinco, thomas, s.moss, ward, olsen, gresham, bryant, eagles, bears, vikings) - Best rb's in the league. Decent receivers. Could lose ground at the flex position as the qb2 is weak and although he can start a good rb at flex, they won't score consistently as much as a good qb at the flex. 

Odds to win 7:1  Contender


Looks like an all-around solid draft as most anyone can win this league. Should make for an interesting regular season, but could hurt the teams in the cut line weeks because the talent is spread out.       

Sunday, September 4

Evaluating the teams in League 126

Due to a couple of poorly drafted teams, a number of teams got awful strong with deep talent. It's a league like this which will often turn out a strong cut line team.

Regulators 1(brady, flacco, mcnabb, turner, bloundt, stewart, lynch, bjge, p.thomas, fitzgerald, wayne, s.johnson, branch, meachem, evans, z.miller, olsen, bironas, cleveland, minnesota) - Very strong team. Solid QB's, deep at RB and 3 solid WR's. Average defenses and kicker could cost this team a few points each week, but I think the overall depth and talent is good enough to win the league. Just hope they play the right rb's each week.

Odds to win: 3:1  Favorite

For a Good Time Call (zebb) (rodgers, e.manning, cassel, mendenhall, MJD, mathews, tolbert, redman, r.jennings, miles, manningham, smith(car), crabtree, floyd, r.williams, winslow, shiancoe, gould, baltimore, san diego) - Solid QB's. Needs MJD or Mathews to step up as a solid rb2. Receiving corp is a bit thin, but Manningham could have a big year to help out. Not one of Zebbs best teams, but definitely has a good shot to finish top 3 and make the cut lines.

Odds to win: 8:1  Contender

Dental Floss Tycoons (vick, kolb, garrard, mcfadden, moreno, jacobs, hightower, woodhead, v.jackson, collie, julio jones, sims-walker, ward, bess, da.clark, keller, feely, hanson, green bay, ny giants) - Too many guys with injury history. Receivers are pretty thin after VJax. Needs Vick to be super man all season in order to contend.
Odds to win: 15:1  Pretender

Jose Cuervo (sanchez, fitzpatrick, smith, rice, forte, ingram, spiller, barber, d.ward, ca.johnson, bowe, harvin, green, gaffney, finley, graham, henery, j.brown, chicago, miami) - Weak QB's, but the rb's and wr's are so strong that if just one of the QB's comes through as a consistent scorer, this team (my team) could be a force to reckon with. RB depth is a little thin as well.

Odds to win: 6:1  Contender

Eagles 3(roethlisberger, orton, tebow, adp, c.johnson, d.williams, LT, f.jackson, mcgahee, nicks, holmes, welker, thomas, ford, little, daniels, gonzalez, seabass, rackers, new england) - Another solid team. QB's are a bit thin, but ADP and CJ can easily make up for their lack of production. Team has 4 or 5 #1 WR's who aren't big names, but will see plenty of passes thrown their way. RB depth could be an issue if CJ takes a while to get his legs under him.

Odds to win: 8:1  Contender

Lugnuts #1 (rivers, stafford, c.mccoy, l.mccoy, best, wells, helu, m.bush, ringer, g.jennings, bryant, ochocinco, s.rice, james jones, edwards, v.davis, pettigrew, cook, bryant, lions) - Pretty good team. Solid qb's. Needs Best or Wells to stay healthy and productive. Not sure why they drafted 3 TE's and only 1 K/Def. Davis should start most weeks, so Cook was a wasted pick.

Odds to win: 10:1  Contender

Courthouse Coyotes #2 (brees, romo, young, s.jackson, bradshaw, benson, starks, tate, hardesty, wallace, boldin, garcon, knox, s.moss, l.moore, gates, e.moore, hartley, eagles, buccaneers) - A Stanima/FFOC vet, this owner almost always grabs a qb with his first 2 picks. This strategy will always keep you in the hunt, but I don't feel it's the best way to win the big prize. The rb's should be solid with 3 starters and the upside of starks and tate. Receivers are good, not great. This team should be at or near the top all season.

Odds to win: 4:1  Serious Contender

The Animals 1 (p.manning, freeman, hasselbeck, foster, gore, grant, addai, r.brown, forsett, m.williams (tb), marshall, maclin, colston, burleson, m.lewis, hernandez, crosby, vinatieri, jets, saints) - Pretty solid team. Foster and Gore could be studs to carry this team a long ways. Receivers are 4 deep solid and Manning/Freeman make a good qb duo.

Odds to win: 8:1  Contender

Xanders Team 2 (schaub, ryan, newton, f.jones, d.thomas, sproles, ry.williams, do. brown, r.white, d.jackson, burress, breaston, a.brown, cobb, witten, celek, gostkowski, kaeding, pittsburgh, atlanta) - This could be one of the weaker teams drafted I've seen this year. The first 5-6 picks were decent, but then it's like they thought they had to fill all their starters, as they took a kicker and defense in rounds 7-8. That hurt their depth. Schaub and Ryan will have to have career years in order for this team to have a chance.

Odds to win: 50 to 1  Jacksonville has a better chance to win the Super Bowl

4HisGlory_11 (cutler, bradford, campbell, charles, hillis, s.green, r.bush, scott, ridley, a.johnson, lloyd, britt, amendola, simpson, cruz, gronkowski, kendricks, buehler, arizona, dallas) - reached for mediocre qb's early. Panic move my most inexperienced drafters. RB's are solid, but overall talent is lacking on this team. Only hope is for Chicago's o-line to give Cutler time so he can put up the big numbers possible in a Mike Martz offense.

Odds to win: 25:1  Needs to complete a hail mary to finish top 3