This year, the top 6 scores in the Open bracket advance to week 16 for a chance at the grand prize of $10,000 for the Stanima Football contest (www.stanima.com). Heading into Monday night, only one team had secured a spot and a second was pretty much guaranteed a spot. There were 8 teams fighting for the other 4 spots. Half of the teams had players playing in the game and half didn't. The standings looked like this:
Plan Eight for outer space 147 + M.Wallace
Ruggles Roo 143.74
Special K 2 140.34
Boogs 2 137.56
Drabus3 135.08
Brown is best 133.58
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kbach2 127.56 + Akers
naked boot legs 4 125.1 + akers + pitt dst
31st bday present 122.12 + m.wallace + v.davis
panda boy 108.28 + m.wallace + 49ers dst
skowman 108.56 + a.brown
azzurri4 84.24 + mendenhall + brown + pitt dst
The first half was pretty uneventful, but a good one for kbach2 and NBL4 as Akers knocked home 2 short field goals knocking brown is best out of the top 6. The shutout and a few int's by the 49ers defense got panda boy in the hunt. Wallace had a respectable 55 yds, but was open for a few other long plays that Roethlisberger didn't connect on.
Mid way thru the 3rd quarter, Alex Smith hit Vernon Davis 3 times including a touchdown, which ensured 31st bday present a spot in the top 6, giving Zebb 2 teams in (ruggles roo is also his). His Panda Boy team was also in the top 6 for now, but a TD by Pittsburgh, and he would drop out. NBL4 was in 6th even though his Pitt dst dropped a few points on the TD.
As the 4th quarter started, there were still 5 or 6 teams fighting for 3 spots. Zebb was assured of having 2 teams in at this point, with a chance at 3. With 9 minutes left in the game, a relatively new NFL rule, and a dumb one if you ask me, came into play and had serious consequences. SF kicked a short FG which put kbach2 into the top 6 and knocking out drabus3 and putting nbl4 within 1 PAT of passing boogs 2 for the last spot. However, Pitt was called for leaping/leveraging giving the 49ers first and goal and 1 play later gore ran the ball in. This penalty cost kbach2 2 points and nbl4 3 points as his defense loss an extra point. At this point, the top 6 were Plan 8, ruggles roo, 31st bday, panda boy, special k, and boogs2. Kbach was 1.2 pts out of the top 6 and NBL4 was almost 4 pts back. Also, Panda Boy had a chance to drop down if Pittsburgh scored a TD or 2 because of the SF defense.
The 49ers defense held up the rest of the game and got another turnover. No more kicking chances for Akers, so the final 6 stayed as it was after the Gore TD and Zebb had 3 teams in the top 6. The change of a FG to a PAT cost kbach2 a spot in the top 6 and Boogs 2 was the beneficiary.
Good luck next week to the 6 finalists! Kbach2, I feel your pain. I suffered similar disappointment 3 years ago. At that time, there were 15 finalists and top prize was $1 million. Much more at stake, but probably just as disappointing.
Merry Christmas to all!
Tuesday, December 20
Thursday, December 15
Stanima week 15
It's here. The all important week 15 which will narrow down the remaining field of 29 to the lucky final 6. The final 6 will be guaranteed at least $500 and will get a free weekend in Vegas. Having been a part of one of these finals parties in the past, the package is valued at over $500, so essentially, each finalist is getting at least $1000 and one hell of a time in Vegas!
I've gone through all the final 29 teams in hopes to make a prediction for the final 6. To pick the final 6 is like picking powerball winners. Not quite as tough, but anyone to correctly guess at least 4 final teams would be doing great. Anyone else who wants to guess 6 teams to make the finals, is welcome to post a comment here, or send them to me via email at saw111671@yahoo.com
At first glance, the only team that jumped out to me as a final 6 team is "Plan Eight from Outer Space". All teams in the top 29 have talent. A few have some key injuries (Forte, McFadden, Jennings). This team has both talent and matchups I like. They are the team to beat this week IMO. My other first glance impressions show 11 teams I feel have a shot at making the top 6, 8 teams that might have an oustide shot, and 9 teams that I don't think have a shot in making it. Granted, any couple of players can have a big week giving their owners a chance. However, with matchups and talent, I have given the following 9 teams no chance. If you are on the least and make it, feel free to rub it in my face.
No chance: Special k2, Lugnuts 2, boldin shower, daddys little angel, azzuri 4, for a good time...., skyt 2 hotty, team boogs 8, lugnuts 1
I also see a number of lineup changes that I would do if I were the teams owner. I realize they still have a few days to make these changes, so it's possible that some teams haven't gone through their lineup yet. I won't post the changes here as I don't want to be accused of helping someone win. My advice is free, but I won't go out of my way to tell someone my opinion on who they should/shouldn't start.
I already mentioned "Plan Eight from Outer Space" as one of my final 6 predictions. Going through the 11 other teams I think have a decent chance to advance, I have picked out the following 5 as my other final 6 predictions:
Team Boogs 2
Skowman
Drabus3
Panda Boy
Eagles 6
Those are my official picks, and I stand by them. My short list of honorable mentioned include:
31st bday present from mom
Brown is Beast
Dreamers
The other interesting part about this time of year is that the games aren't all played on Sunday. So after Thursday, owners of Ryan, Turner, White, Bryant, ATL and MJD may think they have a good/bad shot depending on how their players do. Then on Saturday, some more teams will be excited with Romo, F.Jones, Austin, Bryant, Witten, DAL, Winslow and M.Williams going.
wr - Roddy White
te - Jimmy Graham
k - Neil Rackers
def - Steelers
There aren't a lot of teams with players going on Monday night, but hopefully it's enough to make the cutline watch interesting. Hopefully it is a blog-worthy night.
Good luck to everyone!
I've gone through all the final 29 teams in hopes to make a prediction for the final 6. To pick the final 6 is like picking powerball winners. Not quite as tough, but anyone to correctly guess at least 4 final teams would be doing great. Anyone else who wants to guess 6 teams to make the finals, is welcome to post a comment here, or send them to me via email at saw111671@yahoo.com
At first glance, the only team that jumped out to me as a final 6 team is "Plan Eight from Outer Space". All teams in the top 29 have talent. A few have some key injuries (Forte, McFadden, Jennings). This team has both talent and matchups I like. They are the team to beat this week IMO. My other first glance impressions show 11 teams I feel have a shot at making the top 6, 8 teams that might have an oustide shot, and 9 teams that I don't think have a shot in making it. Granted, any couple of players can have a big week giving their owners a chance. However, with matchups and talent, I have given the following 9 teams no chance. If you are on the least and make it, feel free to rub it in my face.
No chance: Special k2, Lugnuts 2, boldin shower, daddys little angel, azzuri 4, for a good time...., skyt 2 hotty, team boogs 8, lugnuts 1
I also see a number of lineup changes that I would do if I were the teams owner. I realize they still have a few days to make these changes, so it's possible that some teams haven't gone through their lineup yet. I won't post the changes here as I don't want to be accused of helping someone win. My advice is free, but I won't go out of my way to tell someone my opinion on who they should/shouldn't start.
I already mentioned "Plan Eight from Outer Space" as one of my final 6 predictions. Going through the 11 other teams I think have a decent chance to advance, I have picked out the following 5 as my other final 6 predictions:
Team Boogs 2
Skowman
Drabus3
Panda Boy
Eagles 6
Those are my official picks, and I stand by them. My short list of honorable mentioned include:
31st bday present from mom
Brown is Beast
Dreamers
The other interesting part about this time of year is that the games aren't all played on Sunday. So after Thursday, owners of Ryan, Turner, White, Bryant, ATL and MJD may think they have a good/bad shot depending on how their players do. Then on Saturday, some more teams will be excited with Romo, F.Jones, Austin, Bryant, Witten, DAL, Winslow and M.Williams going.
For what it's worth, here's my prediction for the highest scorer at each position, using only players owned by the final 29:
qb - Drew Brees
rb - Arian Fosterwr - Roddy White
te - Jimmy Graham
k - Neil Rackers
def - Steelers
There aren't a lot of teams with players going on Monday night, but hopefully it's enough to make the cutline watch interesting. Hopefully it is a blog-worthy night.
Good luck to everyone!
Tuesday, November 1
Playoffs?!?!?!?!?!?
We come to the all important week 9 in the Stanima leagues. It's the last week of the regular season and it's the first time I will actually pay attention to who plays who and what lineups they have. With this wonderful 18 game scoring format, the standings are often bunched up so 5-7 teams are fighting for this last push to make the cutline bracket (by finishing in the top 3).
I have 6 teams in the Stanima contest this year, and going into week 8, I had 5 teams with a good chance of making the top 3 and 1 team that was still in the hunt only 2 games back. However, week 8 was a major blow to my teams. Partially because I have Aaron Rodgers on 3 of them and he was on bye. Running back injuries have hit me as well. As much as I worry about making the top 3, you really want to be in the top 2 so you have a chance to win the league playoffs in week 10 and the $250 price. Here are my current playoff scenarios for Sunday:
Two teams are just 1 game behind me, but they are both at least 60 points behind me (first tie breaker is points scored). As long as I get 1 win this week, I should remain in first or second and make the championship. The bad news is I play against Lugnuts, the first place team. He has Stafford and Best on bye, so that helps. It's possible I can fall out of the top 3 if I go 0-2 and both teams behind me go 2-0. I have some very bad match ups and Calvin Johnson on bye. I will need Forte to carry me as he's up against the shotty Eagles run defense.
This team took a bad 0-2 last week. I needed 12 points out of Dwayne Bowe on Monday night, and it would have been a 2-0 week and I'd be in 3rd place. Now I need a miracle. I have to go 2-0 while 2 other teams need to go 0-2 and a third team can't go 2-0. With all that, I also have to gain 50 points on 2 of the teams. My best chance is to make one of the 25 wildcard spots (based on points). Currently 5th place is 943, and this team is at 921. I can't say I like my matchups enough to get a 130+ point week.
My only team that is virtually locked into the cut line bracket. I have a 2 game lead on 3rd thru 5th, but even if I go 0-2 and 2 of those teams go 2-0, I have a 100+ point lead on them in points. Only one of the teams behind me is within 70 pts, so I should be in the league championship week 10. The odds of me not making the championship are about the same odds the Cardinals had of winning the world series about a month ago.
This team was a virtual lock until an 0-2, 80 point week now makes it interesting. I dropped from first to 3rd, so I not only have to work to make the championship, but also to stay in the top 3 to make the cutline. Three other teams are tied with me at 9-7, but I have them all by 60 points, so I control my own destiny. The top 2 teams are 1 and 2 games ahead of me, and they play each other. I have more points than them, so a 2-0 week should get me into the championship game. I play one of the other 9-7 teams, so if I can go at least 1-1, the other 2 9-7 teams will have to go 2-0 to knock me out. I'd say my chances are 70% since I have ARodge against the Boltz and Forte against Philly.
Mathematically eliminated from the top 3 in my league, so I need points. I'm currently 12 points away from a wildcard spot. With Rodgers back this week, I have a decent chance. I also have Schaub at home against Cleveland. There's a chance teams currently above me in the wildcard chase will move into the top 3 in their league, so I can also move up without gaining points. The opposite is true as well...I may lose ground by teams with more points falling out of the top 3 and joining the wildcard field.
Another one of my teams in good shape that took an 0-2 week. This team is locked out of the top 3 and with only 909 points, a wildcard is unlikely. This team has almost no chance of making the cut line bracket.
Last week, I was hoping to get 5 of the 6 teams in. Now 2 have very little chance and 2 are pretty solid locks to get in. Looks like at best, I can get 4 in, but most likely it will be 2 or 3. I'll be in San Diego cheering on Aaron Rodgers in person, so hopefully that karma lets him have another one of his monster weeks to carry my teams in the playoffs!
I have 6 teams in the Stanima contest this year, and going into week 8, I had 5 teams with a good chance of making the top 3 and 1 team that was still in the hunt only 2 games back. However, week 8 was a major blow to my teams. Partially because I have Aaron Rodgers on 3 of them and he was on bye. Running back injuries have hit me as well. As much as I worry about making the top 3, you really want to be in the top 2 so you have a chance to win the league playoffs in week 10 and the $250 price. Here are my current playoff scenarios for Sunday:
Jose Cuervo, league #126 - Currently 2nd place at 13-3
Two teams are just 1 game behind me, but they are both at least 60 points behind me (first tie breaker is points scored). As long as I get 1 win this week, I should remain in first or second and make the championship. The bad news is I play against Lugnuts, the first place team. He has Stafford and Best on bye, so that helps. It's possible I can fall out of the top 3 if I go 0-2 and both teams behind me go 2-0. I have some very bad match ups and Calvin Johnson on bye. I will need Forte to carry me as he's up against the shotty Eagles run defense.
Jack Daniels, league 141- Currently 6th place at 8-8
This team took a bad 0-2 last week. I needed 12 points out of Dwayne Bowe on Monday night, and it would have been a 2-0 week and I'd be in 3rd place. Now I need a miracle. I have to go 2-0 while 2 other teams need to go 0-2 and a third team can't go 2-0. With all that, I also have to gain 50 points on 2 of the teams. My best chance is to make one of the 25 wildcard spots (based on points). Currently 5th place is 943, and this team is at 921. I can't say I like my matchups enough to get a 130+ point week.
Jim Beam, league 155 - Currently 1st place at 12-4
My only team that is virtually locked into the cut line bracket. I have a 2 game lead on 3rd thru 5th, but even if I go 0-2 and 2 of those teams go 2-0, I have a 100+ point lead on them in points. Only one of the teams behind me is within 70 pts, so I should be in the league championship week 10. The odds of me not making the championship are about the same odds the Cardinals had of winning the world series about a month ago.
Jameson, league 156 - Currently 3rd place at 9-7
This team was a virtual lock until an 0-2, 80 point week now makes it interesting. I dropped from first to 3rd, so I not only have to work to make the championship, but also to stay in the top 3 to make the cutline. Three other teams are tied with me at 9-7, but I have them all by 60 points, so I control my own destiny. The top 2 teams are 1 and 2 games ahead of me, and they play each other. I have more points than them, so a 2-0 week should get me into the championship game. I play one of the other 9-7 teams, so if I can go at least 1-1, the other 2 9-7 teams will have to go 2-0 to knock me out. I'd say my chances are 70% since I have ARodge against the Boltz and Forte against Philly.
Brewers 5 Scrubs 2 (phone draft), league 162 7th place, 7-9
Mathematically eliminated from the top 3 in my league, so I need points. I'm currently 12 points away from a wildcard spot. With Rodgers back this week, I have a decent chance. I also have Schaub at home against Cleveland. There's a chance teams currently above me in the wildcard chase will move into the top 3 in their league, so I can also move up without gaining points. The opposite is true as well...I may lose ground by teams with more points falling out of the top 3 and joining the wildcard field.
Red Stag, league 169 - 5th place 9-7
Another one of my teams in good shape that took an 0-2 week. This team is locked out of the top 3 and with only 909 points, a wildcard is unlikely. This team has almost no chance of making the cut line bracket.
Last week, I was hoping to get 5 of the 6 teams in. Now 2 have very little chance and 2 are pretty solid locks to get in. Looks like at best, I can get 4 in, but most likely it will be 2 or 3. I'll be in San Diego cheering on Aaron Rodgers in person, so hopefully that karma lets him have another one of his monster weeks to carry my teams in the playoffs!
Friday, September 23
Match ups...how much weight to put on them
One dilemma that fantasy owners face from week to week is who to start. Later in the season, it gets easier as some players get hurt or are on bye. You also have many players step up to the 'must start' status. The tricky part comes when you have an average player with a great match up. Do you start them ahead of a top FFL player?
Normally, I play match up with running backs, but no other positions. Some teams are definitely susceptible to the run each year, so it's wise to start a rb against these teams (Philly this year). I also like to start rb's on teams I feel will win their game and shy away from those that will lose for obvious reasons. You don't always have the flexibility to play match ups, but when you do, it's a nice luxury.
My preference is to start your best players, unless your top player has a bad match up and your mediocre player has a good match up. I ran into this in one league last week and luckily it paid off. My first 2 picks in this league were Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew. Both sat on my bench last week. Instead I went with the favorable match ups of Fred Jackson (Oak) and James Starks (Car). Lucky for me, it worked, as Jackson (28) and Starks (11.5) both outscored my top rb's (CJ -6.5 MJD -10.7). However, my 2 top rb's will be back in the lineup this week as they have more favorable match ups.
It's very easy to over-think your weekly lineup. My advice is to play your top players every week and play match ups with your other starting spots. On the rare occasion that your top rb/qb is going up against a defense like Pittsburgh and your have an alternate option that has a favorable match up, you can bench a top tier player in favor of a 2nd or 3rd tier guy. I wouldn't make a habit out of benching your top picks, but sometimes it's warranted.
Normally, I play match up with running backs, but no other positions. Some teams are definitely susceptible to the run each year, so it's wise to start a rb against these teams (Philly this year). I also like to start rb's on teams I feel will win their game and shy away from those that will lose for obvious reasons. You don't always have the flexibility to play match ups, but when you do, it's a nice luxury.
My preference is to start your best players, unless your top player has a bad match up and your mediocre player has a good match up. I ran into this in one league last week and luckily it paid off. My first 2 picks in this league were Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew. Both sat on my bench last week. Instead I went with the favorable match ups of Fred Jackson (Oak) and James Starks (Car). Lucky for me, it worked, as Jackson (28) and Starks (11.5) both outscored my top rb's (CJ -6.5 MJD -10.7). However, my 2 top rb's will be back in the lineup this week as they have more favorable match ups.
It's very easy to over-think your weekly lineup. My advice is to play your top players every week and play match ups with your other starting spots. On the rare occasion that your top rb/qb is going up against a defense like Pittsburgh and your have an alternate option that has a favorable match up, you can bench a top tier player in favor of a 2nd or 3rd tier guy. I wouldn't make a habit out of benching your top picks, but sometimes it's warranted.
Sunday, September 11
The life of a Fantasy Football owner
As I life long Packers fan, I was quite happy when "my team" stopped Mark Ingram on a last second goalline stand to preserve an 8 point victory over the Saints. However, as a fantasy football owner, I couldn't fully enjoy the victory as much as in the days prior to fantasy football.
The sport of fantasy football has taken over the NFL world. Whether you have a small family league for fun, or are a serious participant spending thousands of dollars on high stakes contests, most people who watch the NFL are in a fantasy football league. As enjoyable as fantasy football is, I believe it has hindered fans and their loyalties to their favorite teams.
When I'm watching the Packers games in a public place, it frustrates me to hear so called Packers fans say it's OK that they just gave up a touchdown because their fantasy player is the one who scored it. That's kind of like saying you're happy you got shot because you weren't killed by the bullet wound. Maybe not the best analogy, but you get my point.
Not only does it affect how people root for their own teams, but people these days are focused in more on the small scroll line at the bottom of the screen than the actual game going on the majority of the screen. Even the tv networks and nfl stadiums have catered towards the fantasy football owner with constant stats and scoring info popping up on screens and scoreboards everywhere.
Fantasy football has also clouded the judgment of many fans. They constantly want to coach to call a play to give the ball to their fantasy players rather than run a play that will work effectively. I've seen Packers fans disappointed after a Rodgers TD pass because he threw it to Nelson instead of Jennings. Disappointed at your team scoring a TD? Really?!?!?
Fantasy football has changed viewing games in many ways, and I found myself in the middle of it on Thursday. I have Mark Ingram on over half of my 18 teams, so although I was jumping up and down when the Packers stopped him at the goalline, a small part of my was disappointed I didn't get those extra 6 points for my fantasy team. Right or wrong, this is the state of the typical NFL fan in the year 2011.
The sport of fantasy football has taken over the NFL world. Whether you have a small family league for fun, or are a serious participant spending thousands of dollars on high stakes contests, most people who watch the NFL are in a fantasy football league. As enjoyable as fantasy football is, I believe it has hindered fans and their loyalties to their favorite teams.
When I'm watching the Packers games in a public place, it frustrates me to hear so called Packers fans say it's OK that they just gave up a touchdown because their fantasy player is the one who scored it. That's kind of like saying you're happy you got shot because you weren't killed by the bullet wound. Maybe not the best analogy, but you get my point.
Not only does it affect how people root for their own teams, but people these days are focused in more on the small scroll line at the bottom of the screen than the actual game going on the majority of the screen. Even the tv networks and nfl stadiums have catered towards the fantasy football owner with constant stats and scoring info popping up on screens and scoreboards everywhere.
Fantasy football has also clouded the judgment of many fans. They constantly want to coach to call a play to give the ball to their fantasy players rather than run a play that will work effectively. I've seen Packers fans disappointed after a Rodgers TD pass because he threw it to Nelson instead of Jennings. Disappointed at your team scoring a TD? Really?!?!?
Fantasy football has changed viewing games in many ways, and I found myself in the middle of it on Thursday. I have Mark Ingram on over half of my 18 teams, so although I was jumping up and down when the Packers stopped him at the goalline, a small part of my was disappointed I didn't get those extra 6 points for my fantasy team. Right or wrong, this is the state of the typical NFL fan in the year 2011.
Tuesday, September 6
Evaluation teams in league 156
Jameson (Rodgers, fitzpatrick, mccoy, forte, best, benson, ward, harrison, scott, fitzgerald, v.jackson, marshall, aj green, m.thomas, cribbs, gonzalez, kendricks, henery, baltimore, houston) By far the best team I drafted. 3 stud wr's with 2 other #1 wr's for bye weeks. The best qb along with a top rb and 2 other rb's with top 15 potential. Only and injury to Rodgers can prevent this team from making the league championship.
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Odds to win: 2:1 Heavy favorite
The Scrappers (Brady, Roethlisberger, campbell, mendenhall, s.jackson, lynch, d.thomas, ringer, redman, d.jackson, welker, garcon, smith (car), crabtree, meachem, da.clark, z.miller, hartley, bironas, pittsburgh) - Solid team. Not flashy. Plenty of steady scorers, but lacking the big week players. Sometimes it's slow and steady that wins the race.
Odds to win: 10:1 Contender
teamP28Ccsxis (Schaub, Kolb, collins, adp, mjd, ingram, d.williams, addai, p.thomas, wayne, collie, l.moore, nelson, hester, gronkowski, hernandez, keller, j.brown, new england, arizona) - RB's is the strength of the team. Sacrificed wr's for it. Good thing for this owner, you can often pick up some solid wr's thru free agency. This will have to be done in order to contend.
Odds to win: 12:1 Pretender
La Arana (stafford, cutler, henne, c.johnson, mcfadden, r.bush, spiller, starks, d.carter, wallace, bryant, boldin, knox, ford, bennett, daniels, celek, rackers, detroit, san diego) - Two explosive rb's and a solid WR corp. QB's are decent, but potentially disastrous. This is the type of team that can go 15-3 or 6-12. Too much volatility to really rank this, so I will put them in the middle.
Odds to win: 10:1 Wild card team
Hard Caulk (vick, ryan, cassel, mccoy, turner, f.jones, LT, snelling, t.jones, holmes, colston, edwards, julio jones, roy williams, floyd, graham, winslow, bryan, eagles, chiefs) - As in my other leagues, Zebb had another good draft. Per his MO, he concentrated on qb's and rb's and got his usual wr's in the later rounds. I think he can find 2 reliable wr's, but he needs one more to be a strong contender. Needs Vick to be back to his 30 ppg in order to pick up the wr's.
Odds to win: 8:1 Contender
Undertakers (Rivers, e.manning, smith, foster, blount, moreno, barber, tate, torain, nicks, bowe, s.johnson, burress, little, evans, v.davis, cook, gostkowski, crosby, jets) - This team could actually be better than mine. If Foster stays healthy, I will probably be playing this team in the finals. He has the 3 strong wr's to go with a stud qb and top 5 rb. Blount could be the key since Moreno's stock has dropped by not getting goal line carries.
Odds to win: 4:1 Favorite in the making
Team A.W.E.C.E.M (freeman, flacco, mcnabb, rice, mathews, bradshaw, stewart, m.bush, hunter, a.johnson, maclin, s.rice, bess, simpson, burleson, m.lewis, gresham, f.davis, vinatieri, bears) - Exhibit A as to why there are 2 stellar teams in this league. Rice and Johnson are studs, but what else does this team have? Not much. This team is the anti-awesome.
Odds to win: 20:1 Needs a miracle
Hot Rats (p.manning, sanchez, hasselbeck, charles, green, f.jackson, karim, ro. brown, g.jennings, harvin, ochocinco, driver, berrian, royal, finley, pettigrew, kaeding, longwell, green bay, new orleans) - Exhibit B. Even if Manning was healthy, this is a weak team. There are 3 or 4 guys on the team that shouldn't even be drafted.
Odds to win: 30:1 No Chance in Hell
Drake (bradford, orton, newton, jacobs, helu, hightower, wells, mcgahee, ridley, ca.johnson, white, miles, manningham, sims-walker, d.moore, gates, olsen, seabass, atlanta, denver) - did a great job stock piling wr's, which isn't easy to do. However, they have no qb's or rb's. I like Bradford and Wells, but as qb2 and rb3, not qb1 and rb1. I'll be shocked if this team contends. Could be exhibit C
Odds to win: 15:1 Lonshot
Courthouse Coyotes #7 (brees, romo, garrard, gore, hillis, grant, bjge, tolbert, hardesty, m.williams (tb), lloyd, britt, s.moss, amendola, h.ward, witten, cooley, cundiff, giants, dallas) - Very strong team. This owner routinely takes a qb with his first 2 picks and he got 2 tier 1 qb's. Not only that, but gore and hillis can be studs. If they come through, then the good, but not great wr's will be acceptable. The bad news for this team is that there are 2 other power house teams in the league.
Odds to win: 6:1 Contender
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Odds to win: 2:1 Heavy favorite
The Scrappers (Brady, Roethlisberger, campbell, mendenhall, s.jackson, lynch, d.thomas, ringer, redman, d.jackson, welker, garcon, smith (car), crabtree, meachem, da.clark, z.miller, hartley, bironas, pittsburgh) - Solid team. Not flashy. Plenty of steady scorers, but lacking the big week players. Sometimes it's slow and steady that wins the race.
Odds to win: 10:1 Contender
teamP28Ccsxis (Schaub, Kolb, collins, adp, mjd, ingram, d.williams, addai, p.thomas, wayne, collie, l.moore, nelson, hester, gronkowski, hernandez, keller, j.brown, new england, arizona) - RB's is the strength of the team. Sacrificed wr's for it. Good thing for this owner, you can often pick up some solid wr's thru free agency. This will have to be done in order to contend.
Odds to win: 12:1 Pretender
La Arana (stafford, cutler, henne, c.johnson, mcfadden, r.bush, spiller, starks, d.carter, wallace, bryant, boldin, knox, ford, bennett, daniels, celek, rackers, detroit, san diego) - Two explosive rb's and a solid WR corp. QB's are decent, but potentially disastrous. This is the type of team that can go 15-3 or 6-12. Too much volatility to really rank this, so I will put them in the middle.
Odds to win: 10:1 Wild card team
Hard Caulk (vick, ryan, cassel, mccoy, turner, f.jones, LT, snelling, t.jones, holmes, colston, edwards, julio jones, roy williams, floyd, graham, winslow, bryan, eagles, chiefs) - As in my other leagues, Zebb had another good draft. Per his MO, he concentrated on qb's and rb's and got his usual wr's in the later rounds. I think he can find 2 reliable wr's, but he needs one more to be a strong contender. Needs Vick to be back to his 30 ppg in order to pick up the wr's.
Odds to win: 8:1 Contender
Undertakers (Rivers, e.manning, smith, foster, blount, moreno, barber, tate, torain, nicks, bowe, s.johnson, burress, little, evans, v.davis, cook, gostkowski, crosby, jets) - This team could actually be better than mine. If Foster stays healthy, I will probably be playing this team in the finals. He has the 3 strong wr's to go with a stud qb and top 5 rb. Blount could be the key since Moreno's stock has dropped by not getting goal line carries.
Odds to win: 4:1 Favorite in the making
Team A.W.E.C.E.M (freeman, flacco, mcnabb, rice, mathews, bradshaw, stewart, m.bush, hunter, a.johnson, maclin, s.rice, bess, simpson, burleson, m.lewis, gresham, f.davis, vinatieri, bears) - Exhibit A as to why there are 2 stellar teams in this league. Rice and Johnson are studs, but what else does this team have? Not much. This team is the anti-awesome.
Odds to win: 20:1 Needs a miracle
Hot Rats (p.manning, sanchez, hasselbeck, charles, green, f.jackson, karim, ro. brown, g.jennings, harvin, ochocinco, driver, berrian, royal, finley, pettigrew, kaeding, longwell, green bay, new orleans) - Exhibit B. Even if Manning was healthy, this is a weak team. There are 3 or 4 guys on the team that shouldn't even be drafted.
Odds to win: 30:1 No Chance in Hell
Drake (bradford, orton, newton, jacobs, helu, hightower, wells, mcgahee, ridley, ca.johnson, white, miles, manningham, sims-walker, d.moore, gates, olsen, seabass, atlanta, denver) - did a great job stock piling wr's, which isn't easy to do. However, they have no qb's or rb's. I like Bradford and Wells, but as qb2 and rb3, not qb1 and rb1. I'll be shocked if this team contends. Could be exhibit C
Odds to win: 15:1 Lonshot
Courthouse Coyotes #7 (brees, romo, garrard, gore, hillis, grant, bjge, tolbert, hardesty, m.williams (tb), lloyd, britt, s.moss, amendola, h.ward, witten, cooley, cundiff, giants, dallas) - Very strong team. This owner routinely takes a qb with his first 2 picks and he got 2 tier 1 qb's. Not only that, but gore and hillis can be studs. If they come through, then the good, but not great wr's will be acceptable. The bad news for this team is that there are 2 other power house teams in the league.
Odds to win: 6:1 Contender
Monday, September 5
Evaluating the teams in League 162
Brewers 5 Scrubs 2 (phone draft) (rodgers, schaub, cassel, moreno, best, grant, lynch, starks, morris, fitzgerald, bowe, sims-walker, ford, james jones, da. clark, pettigrew, beckum, carpenter, lions, dolphins) - QB's clearly the strength of the team. RB's are weak, but have potential. Needs 2 of them to step up in order to contend.
Odds to win: 10:1 Contender
Sharks (brady, cutler, campbell, mjd, mcfadden, bjge, jacobs, m.bush, ri williams, wayne, lloyd, crabtree, burress, floyd, burleson, gates, gonzalez, rackers, jets, saints) -Not a fan of this teams wr's. Denver won't throw as much, so Lloyd will be back to being a FFL non factor. Brady and rb's are good, but not good enough to carry this team.
Odds to win: 15:1 Pretender
Lugnuts #2 (roethlisberger, freeman, newton, adp, d. williams, d.thomas, mcgahee, murray, r.white, m. williams (tb), maclin, smith (car), bess, winslow, gronkowski, heap, janikowski, vinatieri, steelers, giants) - Lacking rb depth. I don't think D'Angelo is consistent enough to start every week. WR's are solid and QB's are as well. Has to hope Moreno gets hurt soon so McGahee and DWill can be used based on matchups.
Odds to win: 10:1 Contender
Naked Bootlegs #1 (sanchez, fitzpatrick, garrard, foster, mendenhall, blount, LT, hardesty, do. brown, nicks, d.jackson, colston, s.johnson, knox, edwards, v.davis, z.miller, gostkowski, packers, houston) - Waited on QB's, and it shows. RB's and WR's are strong and deep. I like the QB's he got, for drafting so late. Definitely should be a force to reckon with.
Odds to win: 3:1 Co-favorite
Special k 3 ( vick, e.manning, kolb, s.jackson, ingram, benson, tolbert, woodhead, ridley, v.jackson, miles, s.rice, amendola, sanders, d.moore, m.lewis, f.davis, keller, henery, rams) - Pretty solid team. Good qb depth. Three rb's that will get plenty of carries. Could lose some ground on teams at TE unless Lewis can repeat his TD performance from last year. I like the Rams defense this year, but they have a tougher schedule, so it would help to have another option.
Odds to win: 8:1 Contender
The Floating Turds (Stafford, mccoy, beck, rice, mathews, p.thomas, wells, helu, torain, ca.johnson, bryant, harvin, julio jones, nelson, little, finley, dickson, crosby, 49ers, dallas) - Really like this team right now. However, they are a Matt Stafford injury away from being mediocre. WR's are solid with depth. Rice is a stud and either Mathews or Wells should be a solid rb2 each week. Now that Grossman is starting, they'd be wise to pick up Shaun Hill and another QB to be an even stronger favorite.
Odds to win: 3:1 Co-favorite
Windy City Hustler (ryan, bradford, tebow, charles, green, r.bush, ringer, hightower, tate, a.johnson, marshall, welker, collie, simpson, evans, hernandez, cook, kendricks, j.brown, new england) -Pretty decent team. Second rb could be a weak spot. Bye weeks could hurt this team unless they improve the depth.
Odds to win: 12:1 Outside Contender
Famous Horsemen (rivers, p.manning, smith, turner, gore, stewart, snelling, t.jones, holmes, boldin, manningham, l.moore, roy williams, graham, daniels, shiancoe, hartley, gould, baltimore, atlanta) - Despite grabbing qb's and rb's early, the wr's aren't too shabby. If Manning doesn't miss too many weeks, this team could be very strong. Smith has decent match ups the first 2 weeks, so even if Manning doesn't play he should be OK. RB depth is very thin, so Gore needs to stay healthy. Kickers miss too many fg's.
Odds to win 6:1 Serious Contender
Sparkling Wiggles VI (brees, romo, orton, forte, f.jones, addai, r.jennings, spiller, barber, wallace, garcon, britt, aj green, meachem, hester, witten, cooley, celek, kaeding, chargers) - Solid QB's. Needs Felix or Spiller to break out and be a top 15 rb. Both have the talent, but neither has stayed on the field long enough to showcase it. WR's have potential, but aren't consistent. Team has a good start, but needs some good breaks along the way.
Odds to win 15:1 Darkhorse
SS8 (flacco, hasselbeck, mcnabb, c.johnson, mccoy, hillis, bradshaw, f.jackson, ro. brown, g.jennings, ochocinco, thomas, s.moss, ward, olsen, gresham, bryant, eagles, bears, vikings) - Best rb's in the league. Decent receivers. Could lose ground at the flex position as the qb2 is weak and although he can start a good rb at flex, they won't score consistently as much as a good qb at the flex.
Odds to win 7:1 Contender
Looks like an all-around solid draft as most anyone can win this league. Should make for an interesting regular season, but could hurt the teams in the cut line weeks because the talent is spread out.
Odds to win: 10:1 Contender
Sharks (brady, cutler, campbell, mjd, mcfadden, bjge, jacobs, m.bush, ri williams, wayne, lloyd, crabtree, burress, floyd, burleson, gates, gonzalez, rackers, jets, saints) -Not a fan of this teams wr's. Denver won't throw as much, so Lloyd will be back to being a FFL non factor. Brady and rb's are good, but not good enough to carry this team.
Odds to win: 15:1 Pretender
Odds to win: 10:1 Contender
Naked Bootlegs #1 (sanchez, fitzpatrick, garrard, foster, mendenhall, blount, LT, hardesty, do. brown, nicks, d.jackson, colston, s.johnson, knox, edwards, v.davis, z.miller, gostkowski, packers, houston) - Waited on QB's, and it shows. RB's and WR's are strong and deep. I like the QB's he got, for drafting so late. Definitely should be a force to reckon with.
Odds to win: 3:1 Co-favorite
Special k 3 ( vick, e.manning, kolb, s.jackson, ingram, benson, tolbert, woodhead, ridley, v.jackson, miles, s.rice, amendola, sanders, d.moore, m.lewis, f.davis, keller, henery, rams) - Pretty solid team. Good qb depth. Three rb's that will get plenty of carries. Could lose some ground on teams at TE unless Lewis can repeat his TD performance from last year. I like the Rams defense this year, but they have a tougher schedule, so it would help to have another option.
Odds to win: 8:1 Contender
The Floating Turds (Stafford, mccoy, beck, rice, mathews, p.thomas, wells, helu, torain, ca.johnson, bryant, harvin, julio jones, nelson, little, finley, dickson, crosby, 49ers, dallas) - Really like this team right now. However, they are a Matt Stafford injury away from being mediocre. WR's are solid with depth. Rice is a stud and either Mathews or Wells should be a solid rb2 each week. Now that Grossman is starting, they'd be wise to pick up Shaun Hill and another QB to be an even stronger favorite.
Odds to win: 3:1 Co-favorite
Windy City Hustler (ryan, bradford, tebow, charles, green, r.bush, ringer, hightower, tate, a.johnson, marshall, welker, collie, simpson, evans, hernandez, cook, kendricks, j.brown, new england) -Pretty decent team. Second rb could be a weak spot. Bye weeks could hurt this team unless they improve the depth.
Odds to win: 12:1 Outside Contender
Famous Horsemen (rivers, p.manning, smith, turner, gore, stewart, snelling, t.jones, holmes, boldin, manningham, l.moore, roy williams, graham, daniels, shiancoe, hartley, gould, baltimore, atlanta) - Despite grabbing qb's and rb's early, the wr's aren't too shabby. If Manning doesn't miss too many weeks, this team could be very strong. Smith has decent match ups the first 2 weeks, so even if Manning doesn't play he should be OK. RB depth is very thin, so Gore needs to stay healthy. Kickers miss too many fg's.
Odds to win 6:1 Serious Contender
Sparkling Wiggles VI (brees, romo, orton, forte, f.jones, addai, r.jennings, spiller, barber, wallace, garcon, britt, aj green, meachem, hester, witten, cooley, celek, kaeding, chargers) - Solid QB's. Needs Felix or Spiller to break out and be a top 15 rb. Both have the talent, but neither has stayed on the field long enough to showcase it. WR's have potential, but aren't consistent. Team has a good start, but needs some good breaks along the way.
Odds to win 15:1 Darkhorse
SS8 (flacco, hasselbeck, mcnabb, c.johnson, mccoy, hillis, bradshaw, f.jackson, ro. brown, g.jennings, ochocinco, thomas, s.moss, ward, olsen, gresham, bryant, eagles, bears, vikings) - Best rb's in the league. Decent receivers. Could lose ground at the flex position as the qb2 is weak and although he can start a good rb at flex, they won't score consistently as much as a good qb at the flex.
Odds to win 7:1 Contender
Looks like an all-around solid draft as most anyone can win this league. Should make for an interesting regular season, but could hurt the teams in the cut line weeks because the talent is spread out.
Sunday, September 4
Evaluating the teams in League 126
Due to a couple of poorly drafted teams, a number of teams got awful strong with deep talent. It's a league like this which will often turn out a strong cut line team.
Regulators 1(brady, flacco, mcnabb, turner, bloundt, stewart, lynch, bjge, p.thomas, fitzgerald, wayne, s.johnson, branch, meachem, evans, z.miller, olsen, bironas, cleveland, minnesota) - Very strong team. Solid QB's, deep at RB and 3 solid WR's. Average defenses and kicker could cost this team a few points each week, but I think the overall depth and talent is good enough to win the league. Just hope they play the right rb's each week.
Odds to win: 3:1 Favorite
For a Good Time Call (zebb) (rodgers, e.manning, cassel, mendenhall, MJD, mathews, tolbert, redman, r.jennings, miles, manningham, smith(car), crabtree, floyd, r.williams, winslow, shiancoe, gould, baltimore, san diego) - Solid QB's. Needs MJD or Mathews to step up as a solid rb2. Receiving corp is a bit thin, but Manningham could have a big year to help out. Not one of Zebbs best teams, but definitely has a good shot to finish top 3 and make the cut lines.
Odds to win: 8:1 Contender
Dental Floss Tycoons (vick, kolb, garrard, mcfadden, moreno, jacobs, hightower, woodhead, v.jackson, collie, julio jones, sims-walker, ward, bess, da.clark, keller, feely, hanson, green bay, ny giants) - Too many guys with injury history. Receivers are pretty thin after VJax. Needs Vick to be super man all season in order to contend.
Odds to win: 15:1 Pretender
Jose Cuervo (sanchez, fitzpatrick, smith, rice, forte, ingram, spiller, barber, d.ward, ca.johnson, bowe, harvin, green, gaffney, finley, graham, henery, j.brown, chicago, miami) - Weak QB's, but the rb's and wr's are so strong that if just one of the QB's comes through as a consistent scorer, this team (my team) could be a force to reckon with. RB depth is a little thin as well.
Odds to win: 6:1 Contender
Eagles 3(roethlisberger, orton, tebow, adp, c.johnson, d.williams, LT, f.jackson, mcgahee, nicks, holmes, welker, thomas, ford, little, daniels, gonzalez, seabass, rackers, new england) - Another solid team. QB's are a bit thin, but ADP and CJ can easily make up for their lack of production. Team has 4 or 5 #1 WR's who aren't big names, but will see plenty of passes thrown their way. RB depth could be an issue if CJ takes a while to get his legs under him.
Odds to win: 8:1 Contender
Lugnuts #1 (rivers, stafford, c.mccoy, l.mccoy, best, wells, helu, m.bush, ringer, g.jennings, bryant, ochocinco, s.rice, james jones, edwards, v.davis, pettigrew, cook, bryant, lions) - Pretty good team. Solid qb's. Needs Best or Wells to stay healthy and productive. Not sure why they drafted 3 TE's and only 1 K/Def. Davis should start most weeks, so Cook was a wasted pick.
Odds to win: 10:1 Contender
Courthouse Coyotes #2 (brees, romo, young, s.jackson, bradshaw, benson, starks, tate, hardesty, wallace, boldin, garcon, knox, s.moss, l.moore, gates, e.moore, hartley, eagles, buccaneers) - A Stanima/FFOC vet, this owner almost always grabs a qb with his first 2 picks. This strategy will always keep you in the hunt, but I don't feel it's the best way to win the big prize. The rb's should be solid with 3 starters and the upside of starks and tate. Receivers are good, not great. This team should be at or near the top all season.
Odds to win: 4:1 Serious Contender
The Animals 1 (p.manning, freeman, hasselbeck, foster, gore, grant, addai, r.brown, forsett, m.williams (tb), marshall, maclin, colston, burleson, m.lewis, hernandez, crosby, vinatieri, jets, saints) - Pretty solid team. Foster and Gore could be studs to carry this team a long ways. Receivers are 4 deep solid and Manning/Freeman make a good qb duo.
Odds to win: 8:1 Contender
Xanders Team 2 (schaub, ryan, newton, f.jones, d.thomas, sproles, ry.williams, do. brown, r.white, d.jackson, burress, breaston, a.brown, cobb, witten, celek, gostkowski, kaeding, pittsburgh, atlanta) - This could be one of the weaker teams drafted I've seen this year. The first 5-6 picks were decent, but then it's like they thought they had to fill all their starters, as they took a kicker and defense in rounds 7-8. That hurt their depth. Schaub and Ryan will have to have career years in order for this team to have a chance.
Odds to win: 50 to 1 Jacksonville has a better chance to win the Super Bowl
4HisGlory_11 (cutler, bradford, campbell, charles, hillis, s.green, r.bush, scott, ridley, a.johnson, lloyd, britt, amendola, simpson, cruz, gronkowski, kendricks, buehler, arizona, dallas) - reached for mediocre qb's early. Panic move my most inexperienced drafters. RB's are solid, but overall talent is lacking on this team. Only hope is for Chicago's o-line to give Cutler time so he can put up the big numbers possible in a Mike Martz offense.
Odds to win: 25:1 Needs to complete a hail mary to finish top 3
Regulators 1(brady, flacco, mcnabb, turner, bloundt, stewart, lynch, bjge, p.thomas, fitzgerald, wayne, s.johnson, branch, meachem, evans, z.miller, olsen, bironas, cleveland, minnesota) - Very strong team. Solid QB's, deep at RB and 3 solid WR's. Average defenses and kicker could cost this team a few points each week, but I think the overall depth and talent is good enough to win the league. Just hope they play the right rb's each week.
Odds to win: 3:1 Favorite
For a Good Time Call (zebb) (rodgers, e.manning, cassel, mendenhall, MJD, mathews, tolbert, redman, r.jennings, miles, manningham, smith(car), crabtree, floyd, r.williams, winslow, shiancoe, gould, baltimore, san diego) - Solid QB's. Needs MJD or Mathews to step up as a solid rb2. Receiving corp is a bit thin, but Manningham could have a big year to help out. Not one of Zebbs best teams, but definitely has a good shot to finish top 3 and make the cut lines.
Dental Floss Tycoons (vick, kolb, garrard, mcfadden, moreno, jacobs, hightower, woodhead, v.jackson, collie, julio jones, sims-walker, ward, bess, da.clark, keller, feely, hanson, green bay, ny giants) - Too many guys with injury history. Receivers are pretty thin after VJax. Needs Vick to be super man all season in order to contend.
Jose Cuervo (sanchez, fitzpatrick, smith, rice, forte, ingram, spiller, barber, d.ward, ca.johnson, bowe, harvin, green, gaffney, finley, graham, henery, j.brown, chicago, miami) - Weak QB's, but the rb's and wr's are so strong that if just one of the QB's comes through as a consistent scorer, this team (my team) could be a force to reckon with. RB depth is a little thin as well.
Eagles 3(roethlisberger, orton, tebow, adp, c.johnson, d.williams, LT, f.jackson, mcgahee, nicks, holmes, welker, thomas, ford, little, daniels, gonzalez, seabass, rackers, new england) - Another solid team. QB's are a bit thin, but ADP and CJ can easily make up for their lack of production. Team has 4 or 5 #1 WR's who aren't big names, but will see plenty of passes thrown their way. RB depth could be an issue if CJ takes a while to get his legs under him.
Lugnuts #1 (rivers, stafford, c.mccoy, l.mccoy, best, wells, helu, m.bush, ringer, g.jennings, bryant, ochocinco, s.rice, james jones, edwards, v.davis, pettigrew, cook, bryant, lions) - Pretty good team. Solid qb's. Needs Best or Wells to stay healthy and productive. Not sure why they drafted 3 TE's and only 1 K/Def. Davis should start most weeks, so Cook was a wasted pick.
Courthouse Coyotes #2 (brees, romo, young, s.jackson, bradshaw, benson, starks, tate, hardesty, wallace, boldin, garcon, knox, s.moss, l.moore, gates, e.moore, hartley, eagles, buccaneers) - A Stanima/FFOC vet, this owner almost always grabs a qb with his first 2 picks. This strategy will always keep you in the hunt, but I don't feel it's the best way to win the big prize. The rb's should be solid with 3 starters and the upside of starks and tate. Receivers are good, not great. This team should be at or near the top all season.
The Animals 1 (p.manning, freeman, hasselbeck, foster, gore, grant, addai, r.brown, forsett, m.williams (tb), marshall, maclin, colston, burleson, m.lewis, hernandez, crosby, vinatieri, jets, saints) - Pretty solid team. Foster and Gore could be studs to carry this team a long ways. Receivers are 4 deep solid and Manning/Freeman make a good qb duo.
Odds to win: 8:1 Contender
Sunday, August 28
Who needs qb's?
When the FFOC was created 4 years ago, I noticed that you could use a qb as a flex position. For this reason, I employed a draft strategy of getting at least 2 good qb's in the first 5 or 6 rounds. Most drafters stuck to the traditional rb heavy drafting early. I had good success in the few years of the FFOC, but it was because of getting good qb's late. One year, it was Kurt Warner in round 18 when Leinart was slated to be Arizona's qb. The next few years, it was Aaron Rodgers in the middle rounds as people didn't see the star potential in him that I did.
Now that the contest has evolved into Stanima fantasy sports ( www.stanima.com ), the rules have stayed the same, but the contest name and the drafting strategy has changed. Now it's a qb heavy draft. Typically, after the first tier and some second tier qb's are taken, then the top rb's and wr's start going. Unless I get Brady, Rodgers or Brees, I typically shy away the qb spot until at least round 3. However in the league 126 draft tonight, I got caught at the end of runs and didn't take a qb til round 9! Most will say I'm insane, but I still believe I have a legit chance to finish in the top 3. Here are my thoughts leading up to not getting a qb til round 9...
Round 1: I had the 4th pick, and it was mentioned in my draft on Friday that this was a tough spot to draft from. I don't believe any spot is a tough spot, but they may have a point. The top 3 picks were standard (brady, rodgers, vick). Although Brees is one of the stud qb's you can count on, I had little hesitation in taking ray rice. He was one of the leading yardage backs last year, and it looks like Harbaugh will let him get his TD's this year, so he could have a very special fantasy season.
Round 2: by my pick #17, 8 qb's were already off the board, which meant all my tier 1 qb's were gone. The position players were still loaded, so I went with Calvin Johnson. Pretty solid start with Rice and Megatron. Should be a good draft!
Round 3: No more qb's went off the board. My highest rated qb was matt stafford, who would look good with Calvin. However, with his injury history, I decided to get another strong position player (rb/wr), since some tier 1 guys were still available. However, I wasn't sure which direction I wanted to go. At RB, I had a choice from Steven Jackson, Hillis, Forte, or Gore. At WR, Nicks, DJax, Wallace, Jennings and Bowe were still on the board. I was leaning towards Nicks, but in the end, I went with Forte because I read a chicago blog today saying how Lovie must have gotten through to Martz that they need to run the ball more to protect the qb. Forte has been a beast in the preseason. Of all my picks this draft, this is the one that I like least, but have to live with it.
Round 4: Between my pick #24 and #37, another qb run went off eating up all my tier 2 qb's. Roethlisberger, Stafford, Bradford, Ryan and Freeman all went. Now my top rated qb was Eli Manning...not good. Rather than scramble and take him so I had one half decent qb, I went with Dwayne Bowe, who I rank as a tier 1 WR. With this core, I figure that as long as I get a few steady qb's that won't get me a negative week, I should still be OK.
Round 5: Kolb and Eli went off the board, so now Joe Flacco was my top rated qb still available. I thought about starting a TE run and taking Witten here. My top WR's on the board were Mike Williams, Percy Harvin and Dez Bryant. Instead, I went with a 3rd potential stud rb. The way QB's are flying off the board, I may need to start 3 rb's rather than a Chad Henne or Jason Campbell. I went with Mark Ingram. He's a player that I've warmed up to since the start of the drafts. The Saints are a high powered offense, and he could get 15+ td's. I doubt he'll get close to 1100 yds rushing, but he could be a steady 7-15 pts each week.
My other rb choices were Jahvid Best, Shonn Greene, and D'Angelo Williams.
Round 6: A tight end run almost started between my last pick and now as Witten and Gates went in round 5. I was beginning to wish I had taken Witten, but I like a lot of TE's, and my 2nd rated TE, Jermichael Finley, was still on the board, so I grabbed him here.
Round 7: Flacco went off the board, so now Matt Cassell was my top rated (mainly because I had Bowe). At this point, almost everyone had 2 qb's, so I wasn't worried that QB's would start getting drafted. I wanted to continue building my RB/WR depth, to not only strengthen my team, but also to make other teams thin that concentrated on qb's early. I went with the explosiveness and upside of Percy Harvin over the steady play of Welker or Boldin. It could also set up for a McNabb-Harvin combo, but I will never take McNabb. He's a good leader, but not a good qb.
Round 8: At this point, I started kicking myself for not taking Stafford in round 3. Cassell was still on the board and I planned on taking him. However, with only 6 picks before my next pick and the 3 teams drafting those picks all had 2 qb's and only one had a TE so I took Jimmy Graham as my 2nd TE. In a way it's a wasted pick, but I think he could be a top 3 TE this year and Finley is still nothing more than potential as he only made it through 5 games last year. Now I should be assured of having a good TE each week and it makes the other teams have to go one rung lower on their TE list. Especially good for bye weeks.
Round 9: I took Graham ahead of Zebb, so Zebb fired back and took Matt Cassell ahead of me. Although I don't think very highly of any of the qb's left (sanchez, mcnabb, mccoy, garrard, campbell, beck, newton, hasselbeck), Sanchez is a guy who should keep his job all year and he has enough weapons to put up steady points. I caved in and finally took a QB (Sanchez) in round 9! He won't get many yards, but as long as he can get 200 yds and a TD or two each week, I'll be happy to let my rbs and wrs carry me.
Round 10: Since Percy hasn't been the healthiest of players, I wanted to get another solid WR as they started coming off the board. Unfortunately, the 2 guys I targeted (Garcon and S.Rice) went right ahead of me. I decided to go for some upside and take AJ Green. I think Dalton will be a decent NFL qb, just not this year. However, Cincy will be so bad that they have to throw and Green is their only good target to throw to.
Round 11: Since I am behind in QB's, I thought about getting ahead in all other categories by going early on a defense and kicker. I almost pulled the trigger on the Packers defense this round, but I went for another potential big play guy in CJ Spiller. With 3 solid rb's, I planned on taking their backups as my other 3 rb picks, but Spiller's upside could be much better than Marion Barber if Forte goes down.
Round 12: Four defenses went off the board as well as Orton, McCoy and Newton. I had targeted Newton as my #2 qb as he should get his share of rushing yards to balance out his stat sheet. McCoy is another qb I like, but his lack of wr's prevents me from taking him too early. I decided to get my 2nd qb here with Ryan Fitzpatrick. He had some big weeks last year, so I was actually quite happy to get him. I no longer feel so bad about my QB's. They aren't big names, but they should keep their jobs and put up steady numbers.
Round 13: McNabb and Garrard were taken in the 6 picks between as well as Pierre Thomas, who was going to be my next pick. The defenses left on the board are teams that I was able to get in the last few rounds of other drafts, and it was too early for me to go with a kicker, so I at least got one handcuff with the pick of Marion Barber. I thought about James Starks because I like his upside, but Grant appears healthy so I decided to pass on Starks and play safe.
Round 14: Not much to choose from at this point unless I wanted a 3rd TE. Still too early for me to take a kicker, so I went with the Bears defense. They have a very good defense, but with the new kickoff rule, Hester will get less touches making the Bears less appealing. I also don't like the fact that Green Bay and Detroit are in the division. The Dolphins are the main D I like this year and they are always on the board late, so I can sit the Bears against the high powered offenses of Green Bay and Detroit.
Round 15: I planned on taking Seabass here, but with only 2 kickers off the board, I went with Derrick Ward. As good as Ben Tate has been, the Texans still like Ward even more and with Fosters nagging hamstring, I figured Ward may help me win a week or two.
Round 16: Seabass went right ahead of me, so I settled for Alex Henery. I like this because I have Seabass in most leagues and this is the first time I've been able to get Henery.
Round 17 - 19: nobody really cares about the end of the draft. It's slim pickings and most teams are getting their K's and D's
Round 20: Still sitting at only 2 qb's. Anyone I don't take, will always be on the free agent list to bid on. However, I had no other WR or def I wanted. I thought about taking Carson Palmer for his upside in case he signs. I also thought about Vince Young or Shaun Hill since Vick and Stafford are bound to get hurt and those backups have a better chance than the stiffs left (Beck, Smith, Dalton, Henne). I went with Smith, because despite their love for Kaepernick, I like his upside with Harbaugh running the offense and big receivers in edwards and crabtree.
In the end, my team shapes out like this:
qb: sanchez, fitzpatrick, smith
rb: rice, forte, ingram, spiller, barber, d.ward
wr: ca. johnson, bowe, harvin, aj green, gaffney
te: finley, graham
k: henery, j.brown
def: chicago, miami
Should be solid enough for a top 3. I need Forte or Ingram to be a top 10 rb. I always tell myself going into a draft to load up on RB/WR and stay patient by taking qb's late. I finally did it and we'll see how it turns out. In my other draft reviews, I've liked teams that did this, however they got at least one second tier qb in round 5 or 6. Never have I seen someone wait til round 9!
Now that the contest has evolved into Stanima fantasy sports ( www.stanima.com ), the rules have stayed the same, but the contest name and the drafting strategy has changed. Now it's a qb heavy draft. Typically, after the first tier and some second tier qb's are taken, then the top rb's and wr's start going. Unless I get Brady, Rodgers or Brees, I typically shy away the qb spot until at least round 3. However in the league 126 draft tonight, I got caught at the end of runs and didn't take a qb til round 9! Most will say I'm insane, but I still believe I have a legit chance to finish in the top 3. Here are my thoughts leading up to not getting a qb til round 9...
Round 1: I had the 4th pick, and it was mentioned in my draft on Friday that this was a tough spot to draft from. I don't believe any spot is a tough spot, but they may have a point. The top 3 picks were standard (brady, rodgers, vick). Although Brees is one of the stud qb's you can count on, I had little hesitation in taking ray rice. He was one of the leading yardage backs last year, and it looks like Harbaugh will let him get his TD's this year, so he could have a very special fantasy season.
Round 2: by my pick #17, 8 qb's were already off the board, which meant all my tier 1 qb's were gone. The position players were still loaded, so I went with Calvin Johnson. Pretty solid start with Rice and Megatron. Should be a good draft!
Round 3: No more qb's went off the board. My highest rated qb was matt stafford, who would look good with Calvin. However, with his injury history, I decided to get another strong position player (rb/wr), since some tier 1 guys were still available. However, I wasn't sure which direction I wanted to go. At RB, I had a choice from Steven Jackson, Hillis, Forte, or Gore. At WR, Nicks, DJax, Wallace, Jennings and Bowe were still on the board. I was leaning towards Nicks, but in the end, I went with Forte because I read a chicago blog today saying how Lovie must have gotten through to Martz that they need to run the ball more to protect the qb. Forte has been a beast in the preseason. Of all my picks this draft, this is the one that I like least, but have to live with it.
Round 4: Between my pick #24 and #37, another qb run went off eating up all my tier 2 qb's. Roethlisberger, Stafford, Bradford, Ryan and Freeman all went. Now my top rated qb was Eli Manning...not good. Rather than scramble and take him so I had one half decent qb, I went with Dwayne Bowe, who I rank as a tier 1 WR. With this core, I figure that as long as I get a few steady qb's that won't get me a negative week, I should still be OK.
Round 5: Kolb and Eli went off the board, so now Joe Flacco was my top rated qb still available. I thought about starting a TE run and taking Witten here. My top WR's on the board were Mike Williams, Percy Harvin and Dez Bryant. Instead, I went with a 3rd potential stud rb. The way QB's are flying off the board, I may need to start 3 rb's rather than a Chad Henne or Jason Campbell. I went with Mark Ingram. He's a player that I've warmed up to since the start of the drafts. The Saints are a high powered offense, and he could get 15+ td's. I doubt he'll get close to 1100 yds rushing, but he could be a steady 7-15 pts each week.
My other rb choices were Jahvid Best, Shonn Greene, and D'Angelo Williams.
Round 6: A tight end run almost started between my last pick and now as Witten and Gates went in round 5. I was beginning to wish I had taken Witten, but I like a lot of TE's, and my 2nd rated TE, Jermichael Finley, was still on the board, so I grabbed him here.
Round 7: Flacco went off the board, so now Matt Cassell was my top rated (mainly because I had Bowe). At this point, almost everyone had 2 qb's, so I wasn't worried that QB's would start getting drafted. I wanted to continue building my RB/WR depth, to not only strengthen my team, but also to make other teams thin that concentrated on qb's early. I went with the explosiveness and upside of Percy Harvin over the steady play of Welker or Boldin. It could also set up for a McNabb-Harvin combo, but I will never take McNabb. He's a good leader, but not a good qb.
Round 8: At this point, I started kicking myself for not taking Stafford in round 3. Cassell was still on the board and I planned on taking him. However, with only 6 picks before my next pick and the 3 teams drafting those picks all had 2 qb's and only one had a TE so I took Jimmy Graham as my 2nd TE. In a way it's a wasted pick, but I think he could be a top 3 TE this year and Finley is still nothing more than potential as he only made it through 5 games last year. Now I should be assured of having a good TE each week and it makes the other teams have to go one rung lower on their TE list. Especially good for bye weeks.
Round 9: I took Graham ahead of Zebb, so Zebb fired back and took Matt Cassell ahead of me. Although I don't think very highly of any of the qb's left (sanchez, mcnabb, mccoy, garrard, campbell, beck, newton, hasselbeck), Sanchez is a guy who should keep his job all year and he has enough weapons to put up steady points. I caved in and finally took a QB (Sanchez) in round 9! He won't get many yards, but as long as he can get 200 yds and a TD or two each week, I'll be happy to let my rbs and wrs carry me.
Round 10: Since Percy hasn't been the healthiest of players, I wanted to get another solid WR as they started coming off the board. Unfortunately, the 2 guys I targeted (Garcon and S.Rice) went right ahead of me. I decided to go for some upside and take AJ Green. I think Dalton will be a decent NFL qb, just not this year. However, Cincy will be so bad that they have to throw and Green is their only good target to throw to.
Round 11: Since I am behind in QB's, I thought about getting ahead in all other categories by going early on a defense and kicker. I almost pulled the trigger on the Packers defense this round, but I went for another potential big play guy in CJ Spiller. With 3 solid rb's, I planned on taking their backups as my other 3 rb picks, but Spiller's upside could be much better than Marion Barber if Forte goes down.
Round 12: Four defenses went off the board as well as Orton, McCoy and Newton. I had targeted Newton as my #2 qb as he should get his share of rushing yards to balance out his stat sheet. McCoy is another qb I like, but his lack of wr's prevents me from taking him too early. I decided to get my 2nd qb here with Ryan Fitzpatrick. He had some big weeks last year, so I was actually quite happy to get him. I no longer feel so bad about my QB's. They aren't big names, but they should keep their jobs and put up steady numbers.
Round 13: McNabb and Garrard were taken in the 6 picks between as well as Pierre Thomas, who was going to be my next pick. The defenses left on the board are teams that I was able to get in the last few rounds of other drafts, and it was too early for me to go with a kicker, so I at least got one handcuff with the pick of Marion Barber. I thought about James Starks because I like his upside, but Grant appears healthy so I decided to pass on Starks and play safe.
Round 14: Not much to choose from at this point unless I wanted a 3rd TE. Still too early for me to take a kicker, so I went with the Bears defense. They have a very good defense, but with the new kickoff rule, Hester will get less touches making the Bears less appealing. I also don't like the fact that Green Bay and Detroit are in the division. The Dolphins are the main D I like this year and they are always on the board late, so I can sit the Bears against the high powered offenses of Green Bay and Detroit.
Round 15: I planned on taking Seabass here, but with only 2 kickers off the board, I went with Derrick Ward. As good as Ben Tate has been, the Texans still like Ward even more and with Fosters nagging hamstring, I figured Ward may help me win a week or two.
Round 16: Seabass went right ahead of me, so I settled for Alex Henery. I like this because I have Seabass in most leagues and this is the first time I've been able to get Henery.
Round 17 - 19: nobody really cares about the end of the draft. It's slim pickings and most teams are getting their K's and D's
Round 20: Still sitting at only 2 qb's. Anyone I don't take, will always be on the free agent list to bid on. However, I had no other WR or def I wanted. I thought about taking Carson Palmer for his upside in case he signs. I also thought about Vince Young or Shaun Hill since Vick and Stafford are bound to get hurt and those backups have a better chance than the stiffs left (Beck, Smith, Dalton, Henne). I went with Smith, because despite their love for Kaepernick, I like his upside with Harbaugh running the offense and big receivers in edwards and crabtree.
In the end, my team shapes out like this:
qb: sanchez, fitzpatrick, smith
rb: rice, forte, ingram, spiller, barber, d.ward
wr: ca. johnson, bowe, harvin, aj green, gaffney
te: finley, graham
k: henery, j.brown
def: chicago, miami
Should be solid enough for a top 3. I need Forte or Ingram to be a top 10 rb. I always tell myself going into a draft to load up on RB/WR and stay patient by taking qb's late. I finally did it and we'll see how it turns out. In my other draft reviews, I've liked teams that did this, however they got at least one second tier qb in round 5 or 6. Never have I seen someone wait til round 9!
Tuesday, August 23
Breaking down league 155 draft results
Rosters/teams are listed in their draft order.
Team One (brady, flacco, smith, mendenhall, hillis, f.jones, bjge, hunter, murray, wallace, boldin, garcon, meacham, ford, little, pettigrew, f.davis, bryant, atlanta, houston) - Not a flashy team, but definitely a solid team. Needs Brady to be MVP-like in order to contend.
Scottie D (rodgers, freeman, newton, mjd, bradshaw, wells, hightower, helu, ridley, jennings, m.williams (tb), lloyd, amendola, d.moore, bess, witten, cook, kendricks, barth, packers) - Another solid team. Rodgers is a stud and will carry any team he's on. I like his draft strategy of loading up on position players and only taking 1 k and 1 def. It is good to do this in early drafts, so you have more chances to strike gold with a 2nd or 3rd stringer. There are always kickers and defenses on the free agent list worth playing. The production of the Freeman-Williams combo will determine if this team is a favorite or just another solid team.
Stars III (vick, bradford, campbell, mcfadden, forte, d.thomas, starks, snelling, vereen, bowe, colston, s. johnson, s. rice, edwards, roy williams, m. lewis, gonzo, j. brown, ravens, viqueens) - Vick is a stud when he's on the field. This team better hopes my prediction of Vick missing at least 4 games this year with injury isn't correct. They don't want to have to play Campbell. Solid receiving corp and McFadden and Forte can be automatic starters, but both have also shown inconsistency in their young careers. Thomas and Starks are decent rb depth. If Vick does what he did last year, this team is a favorite. However, I just don't see it happening.
Deal Breakers IV (mcnabb, orton, t.jackson, ADP, Greene, best, benson, lynch, m.bush, fitzgerald, nicks, d jackson, knox, crabtree, driver, v.davis, shiancoe, gostkowski, seabass, eagles) - Love this team! Strong at every position except QB. This will definitely test the theory of this being a QB league. The QB's are really weak, but the rest of the team is super strong and deep. I feel that most qb's will score at least 10 if you play the right match up, so this team should be strong all year. Only problem could be guessing wrong on the rb match ups each week.
Odds to win: 3:1 Strong Contender
Juggernaut II (rivers, kolb, garrard, turner, ingram, r.bush, p.thomas, harrison, ri. williams, ca. johnson, austin, marshall, julio jones, burleson, winslow, z.miller, celek, henery, pittsburgh, giants) - Loved the first 4 picks, but then hit a speed bump with Ingram in round 5. At least he handcuffed Pierre Thomas to him, but I think Ingram is one of the most over rated/drafted players in the drafts I've seen. I don't think he's a 20 carry back and with the saints passing game, he'll need to score 20 td's to be worth a pick this early. RB2 could be the only thing between a long cutline run and a week 1 exit.
Odds to win: 6:1 Contender
Test Tickles (Brees, Schaub, Sanchez, mccoy, s.jackson, moreno, LT, ro brown, t.jones, holmes, ochocinco, l.moore, s.moss, branch, daniels, keller, cooley, crosby, jets, 49ers) - This draft shows that by purchasing a bunch of teams, all of Zebb's draft practice is paying off. This team could be ridiculously good if not for his panic pick of Ochocinco in round cinco. I also don't understand the pick of Cooley in round 19 when he is obviously thin at WR and Cooley will never start over Daniels or Keller. Two stud qb's, 3 solid rb's and a stud TE will be enough to get him to at least week 13. Receivers are weak, but you can find FA wr's all season.
Odds to win: 2:1 Heavy favorite (despite the 2nd grade humor in his team name)
Jim Beam (ryan, e.manning, mccoy, foster, mathews, grant, f.jackson, tate, torain, r.white, bryant, aj green, sims-walker, breaston, james jones, graham, moeaki, carpenter, miami, lions) Of course I like my team. Otherwise I wouldn't have drafted these players. Very solid team, but without a stud TE, this team will need 2 of the rb's to be top 10 rb's in order to make it to Vegas. Two regrets I have are passing on Moreno to get Bryant and underestimating when Tolbert (handcuff for mathews) would be drafted.
Odds to win: 6:1 Contender
JoeTime12 (stafford, cutler, hasselbeck, rice, charles, tolbert, mcgahee, r.jennings, sproles, v.jackson, britt, manningham, smith (car), thomas, evans, finley, hernandez, hartley, chargers, cowboys) Early leader out of the club house getting Rice and Charles off the bat. Stayed solid with VJax and Stafford, but then fumbled with Cutler in the 5th round. I know people try to get 2 solid qb's, but at this point, there were 5 or 6 mediocre qb's left so I would have preferred they took their top WR on the board and waited a few more rounds on the 2nd qb. It's not a terrible pick because with Martz in charge, the upside is there. However, their receivers are so weak and the o-line average at best, so I don't expect Cutler to put up good numbers. The other moves I question were drafting backup rb's in McGahee and Jennings when he could of handcuffed his 2 studs by taking ricky williams and thomas jones instead. Now if one if his stud rb's goes down, this team is done.
Odds to win: 8:1 Pretender
Team with no name (romo, p.manning, fitzpatrick, gore, d. williams, addai, stewart, carter, barber, wayne, harvin, collie, j.nelson, floyd, da. clark, gronkowski, tamme, kaeding, bears, cards) When this owner enters a team name, it should be "Indianapolis Colts". Why didn't he take Vinatieri and their defense? Then they'd get points every time Indy does. Sorry to say, but the Colts offense isn't what it used to be. It's effective, but not great for piling up stats like the Saints, Eagles and Packers are. Also a few years late on Gore and D'Angelo Williams. 2 or 3 years ago, this team would have been a Contender. For this year, they better hope they have other teams. One thing I'll give them credit for are the handcuff picks of Stewart and Carter.
Odds to win: 30:1 No chance
The My Melodys (roethlisberger, cassel, henne, ch. johnson, blount, jacobs, spiller, ringer, harper, a.johnson, welker, maclin, burress, williams (sea), hester, gates, olsen, rackers, patriots, saints) - Maybe I've looked at too many teams, because I don't have many opinions on this one. People are high on Blount this year, but I don't trust him. I am not worried about Chris Johnson reporting in time for the start of the season. Very solid WR's (once he cuts hester) and TE's. This team will hang around the top, but probably won't have enough to finish top 3.
Odds to win: 10:1 Semi-contender
Team One (brady, flacco, smith, mendenhall, hillis, f.jones, bjge, hunter, murray, wallace, boldin, garcon, meacham, ford, little, pettigrew, f.davis, bryant, atlanta, houston) - Not a flashy team, but definitely a solid team. Needs Brady to be MVP-like in order to contend.
Odds to win: 15:1 Longshot
Scottie D (rodgers, freeman, newton, mjd, bradshaw, wells, hightower, helu, ridley, jennings, m.williams (tb), lloyd, amendola, d.moore, bess, witten, cook, kendricks, barth, packers) - Another solid team. Rodgers is a stud and will carry any team he's on. I like his draft strategy of loading up on position players and only taking 1 k and 1 def. It is good to do this in early drafts, so you have more chances to strike gold with a 2nd or 3rd stringer. There are always kickers and defenses on the free agent list worth playing. The production of the Freeman-Williams combo will determine if this team is a favorite or just another solid team.
Odds to win: 6:1 Contender
Stars III (vick, bradford, campbell, mcfadden, forte, d.thomas, starks, snelling, vereen, bowe, colston, s. johnson, s. rice, edwards, roy williams, m. lewis, gonzo, j. brown, ravens, viqueens) - Vick is a stud when he's on the field. This team better hopes my prediction of Vick missing at least 4 games this year with injury isn't correct. They don't want to have to play Campbell. Solid receiving corp and McFadden and Forte can be automatic starters, but both have also shown inconsistency in their young careers. Thomas and Starks are decent rb depth. If Vick does what he did last year, this team is a favorite. However, I just don't see it happening.
Odds to win: 12:1 Pretender
Odds to win: 3:1 Strong Contender
Juggernaut II (rivers, kolb, garrard, turner, ingram, r.bush, p.thomas, harrison, ri. williams, ca. johnson, austin, marshall, julio jones, burleson, winslow, z.miller, celek, henery, pittsburgh, giants) - Loved the first 4 picks, but then hit a speed bump with Ingram in round 5. At least he handcuffed Pierre Thomas to him, but I think Ingram is one of the most over rated/drafted players in the drafts I've seen. I don't think he's a 20 carry back and with the saints passing game, he'll need to score 20 td's to be worth a pick this early. RB2 could be the only thing between a long cutline run and a week 1 exit.
Odds to win: 6:1 Contender
Test Tickles (Brees, Schaub, Sanchez, mccoy, s.jackson, moreno, LT, ro brown, t.jones, holmes, ochocinco, l.moore, s.moss, branch, daniels, keller, cooley, crosby, jets, 49ers) - This draft shows that by purchasing a bunch of teams, all of Zebb's draft practice is paying off. This team could be ridiculously good if not for his panic pick of Ochocinco in round cinco. I also don't understand the pick of Cooley in round 19 when he is obviously thin at WR and Cooley will never start over Daniels or Keller. Two stud qb's, 3 solid rb's and a stud TE will be enough to get him to at least week 13. Receivers are weak, but you can find FA wr's all season.
Odds to win: 2:1 Heavy favorite (despite the 2nd grade humor in his team name)
JoeTime12 (stafford, cutler, hasselbeck, rice, charles, tolbert, mcgahee, r.jennings, sproles, v.jackson, britt, manningham, smith (car), thomas, evans, finley, hernandez, hartley, chargers, cowboys) Early leader out of the club house getting Rice and Charles off the bat. Stayed solid with VJax and Stafford, but then fumbled with Cutler in the 5th round. I know people try to get 2 solid qb's, but at this point, there were 5 or 6 mediocre qb's left so I would have preferred they took their top WR on the board and waited a few more rounds on the 2nd qb. It's not a terrible pick because with Martz in charge, the upside is there. However, their receivers are so weak and the o-line average at best, so I don't expect Cutler to put up good numbers. The other moves I question were drafting backup rb's in McGahee and Jennings when he could of handcuffed his 2 studs by taking ricky williams and thomas jones instead. Now if one if his stud rb's goes down, this team is done.
Odds to win: 8:1 Pretender
The My Melodys (roethlisberger, cassel, henne, ch. johnson, blount, jacobs, spiller, ringer, harper, a.johnson, welker, maclin, burress, williams (sea), hester, gates, olsen, rackers, patriots, saints) - Maybe I've looked at too many teams, because I don't have many opinions on this one. People are high on Blount this year, but I don't trust him. I am not worried about Chris Johnson reporting in time for the start of the season. Very solid WR's (once he cuts hester) and TE's. This team will hang around the top, but probably won't have enough to finish top 3.
Wednesday, August 17
Pre-season break outs and busts
Many people want to keep their draft strategies and sleepers a secret so they can get the players they want at a bargain price. This year, I am going to spill the beans before the season. Why? Maybe it's to show how smart I am? Maybe it's a smoke screen to throw off my fellow drafters? Maybe I just love talking fantasy football? Below I will list some lower tier players that I think could have big years and bust years.
QB - Unless a league allows 6 pts for passing TD, I will typically wait til rounds 6-9 to get my QB. Quarterbacks get hurt so often, that for me, it's an interchangeable part. You can draft 3 mediocre qb's and play match up with them and get decent point totals each week.
The second-third tier qb's I like this year are :
Sam Bradford - has a year under his belt and he showed me he's a leader. Confidence is what all the good qb's have
Alex Smith - Many will think I'm crazy. However, I love Jim Harbaugh and his offensive creativity. That combined with the talent of Bralyon Edwards, Michael Crabtree, and Vernon Davis makes me believe that Alex Smith can have some productive weeks. I wait to get him near the end of the draft as my 3rd qb because their offensive line is scary bad.
Jay Cutler - Mike Martz has a complex offense, and Cutler should have a good grasp of it this year. He also has something to prove after the way last season ended. Hanie has been horrible in camp, so I think Cutler's job is safe. A great defense will give him plenty of scoring chances.
Here are the guys I will not take in a draft:
Jason Campbell - Oakland Raiders..enough said
Chad Henne - has not showed me anything as a starter
Kyle Orton - I like him as a QB, but the Bronco offense will be 180 degrees different under John Fox than Josh McDaniel. Limited throwing opportunities will hurt Orton's status.
RB's - This position has become less valuable in drafts because so many teams share the carries. Also, some have gone to goalline vultures which hurt the value of good backs who get plenty of yards, but no td's.
Fred Jackson - always a personal favorite of mine. He and Jerome Harrison are talented backs that don't often get regular touches. Spiller didn't play much last year, so I feel confident that FJax will get the touches he needs to be a good rb3 or even rb2
Felix Jones - no question about his talent. He's just had trouble staying on the field. The return of Romo should take the pressure off the run game and give him more draws and screens where he can use his speed for big plays
Jahvid Best - He came on at the end of last season. Still running behind a weak o-line, but his pass catching ability gives him plenty of quality touches. The injury to Loshoure helps tremendously.
Knowshown Moreno - In his first few years, he was on my don't draft list. This year, I've drafted him in every league around the 5th-6th round. As stated above, with Fox as head coach, the Broncos will be a heavy running team. Only question is if Knowshown can stay on the field.
Guys I won't be drafting:
BJGE - the lawfirm had a great second half. However, Bellichek doesn't like to run much, and not since Curtis Martin, have they had a back get consistent touches
Steven Jackson - he continues to take a pounding year after year, and his numbers keep going down. He's still productive, but not worth a top 30 pick, which is where he still seems to get drafted.
Mark Ingram - He's been going surprisingly high in most drafts. I know the Saints score a lot of point and Pierre Thomas is still battling a foot injury. However, Ingram couldn't handle the full work load at Alabama, so I don't know why people think he will in the NFL. He's a very good running back, but I don't see the touches and endurance for him to be worth a 7th-8th round pick.
That's enough for now. If I have time tomorrow, I'll do a write up on WR's and TE's. Kickers and Defenses aren't worth writing about.
QB - Unless a league allows 6 pts for passing TD, I will typically wait til rounds 6-9 to get my QB. Quarterbacks get hurt so often, that for me, it's an interchangeable part. You can draft 3 mediocre qb's and play match up with them and get decent point totals each week.
The second-third tier qb's I like this year are :
Sam Bradford - has a year under his belt and he showed me he's a leader. Confidence is what all the good qb's have
Alex Smith - Many will think I'm crazy. However, I love Jim Harbaugh and his offensive creativity. That combined with the talent of Bralyon Edwards, Michael Crabtree, and Vernon Davis makes me believe that Alex Smith can have some productive weeks. I wait to get him near the end of the draft as my 3rd qb because their offensive line is scary bad.
Jay Cutler - Mike Martz has a complex offense, and Cutler should have a good grasp of it this year. He also has something to prove after the way last season ended. Hanie has been horrible in camp, so I think Cutler's job is safe. A great defense will give him plenty of scoring chances.
Here are the guys I will not take in a draft:
Jason Campbell - Oakland Raiders..enough said
Chad Henne - has not showed me anything as a starter
Kyle Orton - I like him as a QB, but the Bronco offense will be 180 degrees different under John Fox than Josh McDaniel. Limited throwing opportunities will hurt Orton's status.
RB's - This position has become less valuable in drafts because so many teams share the carries. Also, some have gone to goalline vultures which hurt the value of good backs who get plenty of yards, but no td's.
Fred Jackson - always a personal favorite of mine. He and Jerome Harrison are talented backs that don't often get regular touches. Spiller didn't play much last year, so I feel confident that FJax will get the touches he needs to be a good rb3 or even rb2
Felix Jones - no question about his talent. He's just had trouble staying on the field. The return of Romo should take the pressure off the run game and give him more draws and screens where he can use his speed for big plays
Jahvid Best - He came on at the end of last season. Still running behind a weak o-line, but his pass catching ability gives him plenty of quality touches. The injury to Loshoure helps tremendously.
Knowshown Moreno - In his first few years, he was on my don't draft list. This year, I've drafted him in every league around the 5th-6th round. As stated above, with Fox as head coach, the Broncos will be a heavy running team. Only question is if Knowshown can stay on the field.
Guys I won't be drafting:
BJGE - the lawfirm had a great second half. However, Bellichek doesn't like to run much, and not since Curtis Martin, have they had a back get consistent touches
Steven Jackson - he continues to take a pounding year after year, and his numbers keep going down. He's still productive, but not worth a top 30 pick, which is where he still seems to get drafted.
Mark Ingram - He's been going surprisingly high in most drafts. I know the Saints score a lot of point and Pierre Thomas is still battling a foot injury. However, Ingram couldn't handle the full work load at Alabama, so I don't know why people think he will in the NFL. He's a very good running back, but I don't see the touches and endurance for him to be worth a 7th-8th round pick.
That's enough for now. If I have time tomorrow, I'll do a write up on WR's and TE's. Kickers and Defenses aren't worth writing about.
Monday, August 15
Evaluating the teams in League 141
To win a league, you not only have to draft well, but a lot depends on unforseen injuries and new opportunities. It also has a lot to do with key pickups and deciding which struggling player to stick with and which ones to cut ties with. Based on our draft alone, here are the odds to win the league. Teams are listed in the order they drafted.
1> Machine2 (vick, cutler, henne, turner, mccoy, r.bush, sproles, ro. brown, scott, bryant, harvin, sims-walker, burress, floyd, crabtree, gates, hernandez, rackers, rams)
Way too many health risks on this team, especially in the top few picks. Vick, Gates, Harvin, McCoy, R. Bush are all guys who miss at least 2 games each season due to injury. The receiving corp is weak, but it has potential. I know it's the common trend, but I'd never take Vick #1 due to the injury factor and that now teams have a blue print on how to slow him down. Gates (round 4) was taken too early considering his ankle/foot problems the past few years.
Odds to win: 40:1 Hope this isn't their only team
2> Charger (roethlisberger, cassel, tebow, ADP, bradshaw, lynch, woodhead, gerhart, ca. johnson, fitzgerald, colston, knox, s.moss, bess, winslow, z.miller, heap, gould, lions, giants)
Love the receivers and rb's should be solid assuming bradshaw or lynch step up. Depth/bench is a bit weak, but I still like this team to contend. Loved the first 3 picks of ADP, Johnson and Fitzgerald. If the team builds depth in free agency, they will be a team to reckon with.
Odds to win: 6:1 Contender
3> Skowman (rodgers, ryan, freeman, benson, mathews, addai, torain, vereen, mcgahee, v jackson, manningham, britt, driver, r.moss, mike williams (sea), daniels, watson, gronkowski, buehler, arizona)
I realize that qb's win in this format, but to spend 3 of your first 4 picks on a qb is suicide IMO. Every year, 12+ qb's get hurt or benched. It's the highest injury risk position, so to use high picks on qb's is a risk. The main reason I don't like it is because your supporting cast becomes very thin. He has aging rb's, but I do like Mathews this year. The QB's are best in this league, but not enough to carry the team.
4> Jack Daniels (me) (eli, sanchez, mccoy, ch johnson, mjd, moreno, starks, f. jackson, nicks, bowe, edwards, james jones, simpson, sanders, finley, olsen, seabass, vinatieri, packers, dolphins)
QB's and WR depth are a bit thin. RB's will be the strong point and with 2 top WR's and a potentially explosive TE, this team will contend. A lot depends on how Eli adapts to not having Boss and Smith, his 2 security blankets.
5> Deal Breaker IV (brees, romo, t jackson, s jackson, bloundt, stewart, p thomas, tolbert, mi williams (tb), boldin, ochocinco, meacham, nelson, bennett, witten, keller, gostkowski, bryant, pitt, eagles)
Elite QB's will keep this team in the running all season. The supporting cast is fairly solid. If they can find a 2nd rb and 3rd wr to be consistent, this team should be in the finals. Although they jumped the gun by taking 2 defenses in round 10 and 11, they have 2 good ones and should find a favorable match up each week.
6> Field of Reams (brady, mcnabb, newton, hillis, green, best, wells, jennings, carter, a johnson, lloyd, st johnson, branch, little, hester, graham, m. lewis, moeaki, hartley, balt)
Solid draft. No real stretches or wasted picks. Like the rb's and te's. I'm not a fan of McNabb, but a good year out of him could make this team a true contender. With Fox in Denver, I think Lloyd was taken too high. I have him on my "do not draft" list this year. If I'm right on Lloyd, the 3rd WR spot could be a weak link.
7> Smokey Tiger4 (stafford, kolb, hasselbeck, foster, ingram, bjge, LT, m. bush, ringer, white, jennings, d jackson, collie, garcon, h ward, gonzalez, celek, kaeding, tampa bay, kc)
Like the draft strategy. Grabbed Foster in first round and top WR's in the next 3. Still got solid qb's with stafford and kolb. The one move that could cost them is taking Ingram in round 7 over the likes of D'Angelo Williams, Marshawn Lynch and David Thomas. I know Ingram is a public favorite, but I don't think he will be an impact player this season.
8> Team Boogs5 (rivers, schaub, orton, charles, forte, DA Williams, Grant, Spiller, th. jones, marshall, rice, thomas, amendola, l moore, roy williams, da clark, shianco, carpenter, chargers, vikings)
Super solid first 4 picks (charles, rivers, schaub, forte). Added a top TE in Clark. receivers are a bit thin, but you can always find wr's in free agency. The qb's and rb's are as solid as any in the league. This is the team to beat IMO.
9> emmitt3 (peyton, flacco, fitzpatrick, rice, gore, ryan williams, jacobs, helu, snelling, wayne, welker, maclin, smith (car), ford, davis, cooley, crosby, brown, patriots, cowboys)
Got a steal with Gore in the end of round 3. Solid qb's. WR's are old and a weak spot on the team. Good draft for 10 rounds and then pretty weak the rest of the way. If the studs stay healthy and have good years, this team is a darkhorse.
10> Glaizermags (bradford, campbell, smith, mendenhall, mcfadden, da thomas, f jones, hightower, ridley, miles, wallace, holmes, ju jones, aj green, evans, pettigrew, cook, henery, bears, saints)
This is a tough one to figure out. I loved most of this teams picks in the draft, yet the first time I looked at the team, I didn't like it. Probably because I'm not sold on Mendenhall and McFadden as top 11 players. I loved the pickup of David Thomas and Felix Jones in rounds 7-8. I also loved getting Alex Smith and Lee Evans with the last 2 picks. This team will lose ground each week at TE. I like Cook and Pettigrew as good talents, but not as a top 10 scoring TE. I also like the picks of the talented rookie receivers Jones and Green in round 9-10. I only like this because he has proven receivers drafted earlier, so he doesn't need the young guys to produce. Although I like Bradford and Smith to be decent this year, I don't see how this team can win with these qb's.
I'd love to hear your comments on the teams. Everyone values players differently. I'm sure if other people ranked the teams, they could be in reverse order of what I have. That's what makes drafting so much fun. Because everyone sees things differently and thus where players get drafted will vary from draft to draft.
Good luck in your future drafts. I hope this evaluation helps you in your preparation.
1> Machine2 (vick, cutler, henne, turner, mccoy, r.bush, sproles, ro. brown, scott, bryant, harvin, sims-walker, burress, floyd, crabtree, gates, hernandez, rackers, rams)
Way too many health risks on this team, especially in the top few picks. Vick, Gates, Harvin, McCoy, R. Bush are all guys who miss at least 2 games each season due to injury. The receiving corp is weak, but it has potential. I know it's the common trend, but I'd never take Vick #1 due to the injury factor and that now teams have a blue print on how to slow him down. Gates (round 4) was taken too early considering his ankle/foot problems the past few years.
2> Charger (roethlisberger, cassel, tebow, ADP, bradshaw, lynch, woodhead, gerhart, ca. johnson, fitzgerald, colston, knox, s.moss, bess, winslow, z.miller, heap, gould, lions, giants)
Love the receivers and rb's should be solid assuming bradshaw or lynch step up. Depth/bench is a bit weak, but I still like this team to contend. Loved the first 3 picks of ADP, Johnson and Fitzgerald. If the team builds depth in free agency, they will be a team to reckon with.
3> Skowman (rodgers, ryan, freeman, benson, mathews, addai, torain, vereen, mcgahee, v jackson, manningham, britt, driver, r.moss, mike williams (sea), daniels, watson, gronkowski, buehler, arizona)
I realize that qb's win in this format, but to spend 3 of your first 4 picks on a qb is suicide IMO. Every year, 12+ qb's get hurt or benched. It's the highest injury risk position, so to use high picks on qb's is a risk. The main reason I don't like it is because your supporting cast becomes very thin. He has aging rb's, but I do like Mathews this year. The QB's are best in this league, but not enough to carry the team.
Odds to win: 15:1 Pretender
4> Jack Daniels (me) (eli, sanchez, mccoy, ch johnson, mjd, moreno, starks, f. jackson, nicks, bowe, edwards, james jones, simpson, sanders, finley, olsen, seabass, vinatieri, packers, dolphins)
QB's and WR depth are a bit thin. RB's will be the strong point and with 2 top WR's and a potentially explosive TE, this team will contend. A lot depends on how Eli adapts to not having Boss and Smith, his 2 security blankets.
Odds to win: 8:1 Contender
Elite QB's will keep this team in the running all season. The supporting cast is fairly solid. If they can find a 2nd rb and 3rd wr to be consistent, this team should be in the finals. Although they jumped the gun by taking 2 defenses in round 10 and 11, they have 2 good ones and should find a favorable match up each week.
Odds to win: 6:1 Serious Contender
Solid draft. No real stretches or wasted picks. Like the rb's and te's. I'm not a fan of McNabb, but a good year out of him could make this team a true contender. With Fox in Denver, I think Lloyd was taken too high. I have him on my "do not draft" list this year. If I'm right on Lloyd, the 3rd WR spot could be a weak link.
Odds to win: 10:1 Possible contender
Like the draft strategy. Grabbed Foster in first round and top WR's in the next 3. Still got solid qb's with stafford and kolb. The one move that could cost them is taking Ingram in round 7 over the likes of D'Angelo Williams, Marshawn Lynch and David Thomas. I know Ingram is a public favorite, but I don't think he will be an impact player this season.
Odds to win: 5:1 Serious Contender
Super solid first 4 picks (charles, rivers, schaub, forte). Added a top TE in Clark. receivers are a bit thin, but you can always find wr's in free agency. The qb's and rb's are as solid as any in the league. This is the team to beat IMO.
Odds to win: 3:1 Favorites
Got a steal with Gore in the end of round 3. Solid qb's. WR's are old and a weak spot on the team. Good draft for 10 rounds and then pretty weak the rest of the way. If the studs stay healthy and have good years, this team is a darkhorse.
Odds to win: 20:1 Longhsot
10> Glaizermags (bradford, campbell, smith, mendenhall, mcfadden, da thomas, f jones, hightower, ridley, miles, wallace, holmes, ju jones, aj green, evans, pettigrew, cook, henery, bears, saints)
This is a tough one to figure out. I loved most of this teams picks in the draft, yet the first time I looked at the team, I didn't like it. Probably because I'm not sold on Mendenhall and McFadden as top 11 players. I loved the pickup of David Thomas and Felix Jones in rounds 7-8. I also loved getting Alex Smith and Lee Evans with the last 2 picks. This team will lose ground each week at TE. I like Cook and Pettigrew as good talents, but not as a top 10 scoring TE. I also like the picks of the talented rookie receivers Jones and Green in round 9-10. I only like this because he has proven receivers drafted earlier, so he doesn't need the young guys to produce. Although I like Bradford and Smith to be decent this year, I don't see how this team can win with these qb's.
Odds to win: 18:1 Good upside, but I don't see them winning
I'd love to hear your comments on the teams. Everyone values players differently. I'm sure if other people ranked the teams, they could be in reverse order of what I have. That's what makes drafting so much fun. Because everyone sees things differently and thus where players get drafted will vary from draft to draft.
Good luck in your future drafts. I hope this evaluation helps you in your preparation.
Friday, August 12
First Stanima Draft
This is probably not the smartest idea I've had, but since I have the adrenaline flowing from my first Stanima draft, I will post my thoughts about it. My challengers my use this against me in future drafts (I have 5 more to do), but that's OK.
A quick background on the Stanima contest (www.stanima.com). It's a qb heavy league since you're able to start 2 qb's each week, and they often score the most points. You are put in a 10 team division, and you play each team once during the 9 week regular season. You also get a w/l each week based on your point total. The top 5 scoring teams in the league get a win each week and the bottom 5 get a loss. I love this unique way of keeping records as it gives you some solace to have a big week, only to lose to the team that scores the most in the league. You may still sign up for this contest as drafts run up til the day before opening night.
I drew the 4th spot in the draft and looking at my pre-rankings, I had ARod, ADP, and Chris Johnson the top 3. If those 3 went 1-3, I was not sure if I should take Charles or Foster. Foster is the better player, but he has a bye week 11 which is when the cut line elimination starts. I tried avoiding players with a week 11 bye week for this reason. The first pick turned out to be Vick (as in most drafts), and I quickly realized I'd get ADP or CJohnson. I don't rank Vick high because he's an injury risk (as are most qb's) and teams slowed him down at the end of last season now that they were more prepared for him. He's a bonafide stud in FFL, but you won't see him on any of my teams.
Round 2, I got another stud rb in Maurice Jones-Drew. He's always been a first round pick, and the heavy work load he's had the past few years gives me some concern, but this was a no-brainer pick for me. By this time, 7 of the first 15 picks were qb's and only 6 were rb's (A. Johnson and White were also taken). In round 3, we were already at the 2nd tier of qb's, so I was hoping to land a top WR. I got my wish and took Hakeem Nicks. He broke out last season as Eli's favorite target. Seems to have a slight injury issue, but wr's are easily replaced.
By round 4, I start watching the qb's closely. I like a lot of the mid-tier qb's, but don't want to get stuck starting a Chad Henne or Jason Campbell. At this time, the top qb's left in my mind were Josh Freeman, Eli Manning, and Matthew Stafford. It was hard to pass on Josh Freeman, but I suddenly realized Dwayne Bowe fell on my lap. Last year, only Brandon Lloyd scored more points. Yet 11 other wr's were taken ahead of him. He's still reaching his prime and another year under Haley should be good for the Chiefs offense. At this point, I had a great core starting lineup with CJ, MJD, Nicks and Bowe.
Round 5, most of the QB's I liked were gone, so I grabbed Eli Manning. I like Manning this year and it helps even more that I already had Nicks. I planned on taking a 2nd qb in round 6 since I had other high upside
qb's on the board after I took Eli. Stafford, Flacco, Bradford and Kolb all went before my 6th pick. Cutler was the one qb I liked of the players left, but I passed on him and went with Jermichael Finley instead. He has the highest upside of any TE other than Dallas Clark. Gates continues to go first, but can you really trust his health? I figure with this core of starters, I can find a mediocre WR and QB to get me through most weeks.
In round 7, you start grabbing the #2 wr's and backup rb's hoping to get lucky. The next 6 or 7 rounds is pretty much a crap shoot. However, I was thrilled to get Knowshawn Moreno in the 7th as my 3rd top RB. In the past, I didn't like Moreno because Shanahan never sticks to 1 rb, and McDaniel was a pass happy coach. This year, they have John Fox who loves to run, run and run again. He relies on his defense to make plays and his offense to not make mistakes. For this reason, I see Moreno and McGahee as being busy this year.
As I said..the rest of the draft is pretty much a grab bag and time for your sleepers. Here's how the rest of my draft shaped out:
round 8: Fred Jackson (underrated back who should still get most of the touches while Spiller matures)
round 9: Mark Sanchez (safe pick as his job is not in jeopardy, so even if his stats aren't great, at least he'll be playing)
round 10: Braylon Edwards (Harbaugh should help the 49er passing attack, and with Crabtree hobbled, Edwards could break out)
round 11: GB Def (didn't have any position players I liked)
round 12: James Jones (my one sleeper pick this season, if you can even call him one)
round 13: Greg Olsen (new team will hopefully utilize his great talent)
round 14: Jerome Simpson (needed wr depth. Not sure what he can do without a proven qb)
round 15: James Starks (when in doubt, take a Packer! He's looked great in camp and could beat out Grant for the starting job)
round 16: Miami (great pass rush and that's usually the cause of turnovers)
round 17: Colt McCoy (between him and Alex Smith as my emergency qb. Went with youth)
round 18: Seabass (my top rated kicker and he was still there despite 6 other kickers being taken)
round 19: Vinatieri (when in doubt, take a kicker on a team that will score a lot)
round 20: Emmanuel Sanders (hoping he becomes Ben's #2 target. Need WR depth more than RB)
Like most everyone that drafts, I really like my team. Flex position is a bit weak with Sanchez/McCoy, but if Moreno comes thru, I can always go 3 rb's. I don't always like the teams I draft, but in this draft it seemed that everyone I wanted, fell to my next pick. Not once did a player I targeted go a pick or two in front of me. We'll see how it turns out.
Scooter
"Jack Daniels" league 141
A quick background on the Stanima contest (www.stanima.com). It's a qb heavy league since you're able to start 2 qb's each week, and they often score the most points. You are put in a 10 team division, and you play each team once during the 9 week regular season. You also get a w/l each week based on your point total. The top 5 scoring teams in the league get a win each week and the bottom 5 get a loss. I love this unique way of keeping records as it gives you some solace to have a big week, only to lose to the team that scores the most in the league. You may still sign up for this contest as drafts run up til the day before opening night.
I drew the 4th spot in the draft and looking at my pre-rankings, I had ARod, ADP, and Chris Johnson the top 3. If those 3 went 1-3, I was not sure if I should take Charles or Foster. Foster is the better player, but he has a bye week 11 which is when the cut line elimination starts. I tried avoiding players with a week 11 bye week for this reason. The first pick turned out to be Vick (as in most drafts), and I quickly realized I'd get ADP or CJohnson. I don't rank Vick high because he's an injury risk (as are most qb's) and teams slowed him down at the end of last season now that they were more prepared for him. He's a bonafide stud in FFL, but you won't see him on any of my teams.
Round 2, I got another stud rb in Maurice Jones-Drew. He's always been a first round pick, and the heavy work load he's had the past few years gives me some concern, but this was a no-brainer pick for me. By this time, 7 of the first 15 picks were qb's and only 6 were rb's (A. Johnson and White were also taken). In round 3, we were already at the 2nd tier of qb's, so I was hoping to land a top WR. I got my wish and took Hakeem Nicks. He broke out last season as Eli's favorite target. Seems to have a slight injury issue, but wr's are easily replaced.
By round 4, I start watching the qb's closely. I like a lot of the mid-tier qb's, but don't want to get stuck starting a Chad Henne or Jason Campbell. At this time, the top qb's left in my mind were Josh Freeman, Eli Manning, and Matthew Stafford. It was hard to pass on Josh Freeman, but I suddenly realized Dwayne Bowe fell on my lap. Last year, only Brandon Lloyd scored more points. Yet 11 other wr's were taken ahead of him. He's still reaching his prime and another year under Haley should be good for the Chiefs offense. At this point, I had a great core starting lineup with CJ, MJD, Nicks and Bowe.
Round 5, most of the QB's I liked were gone, so I grabbed Eli Manning. I like Manning this year and it helps even more that I already had Nicks. I planned on taking a 2nd qb in round 6 since I had other high upside
qb's on the board after I took Eli. Stafford, Flacco, Bradford and Kolb all went before my 6th pick. Cutler was the one qb I liked of the players left, but I passed on him and went with Jermichael Finley instead. He has the highest upside of any TE other than Dallas Clark. Gates continues to go first, but can you really trust his health? I figure with this core of starters, I can find a mediocre WR and QB to get me through most weeks.
In round 7, you start grabbing the #2 wr's and backup rb's hoping to get lucky. The next 6 or 7 rounds is pretty much a crap shoot. However, I was thrilled to get Knowshawn Moreno in the 7th as my 3rd top RB. In the past, I didn't like Moreno because Shanahan never sticks to 1 rb, and McDaniel was a pass happy coach. This year, they have John Fox who loves to run, run and run again. He relies on his defense to make plays and his offense to not make mistakes. For this reason, I see Moreno and McGahee as being busy this year.
As I said..the rest of the draft is pretty much a grab bag and time for your sleepers. Here's how the rest of my draft shaped out:
round 8: Fred Jackson (underrated back who should still get most of the touches while Spiller matures)
round 9: Mark Sanchez (safe pick as his job is not in jeopardy, so even if his stats aren't great, at least he'll be playing)
round 10: Braylon Edwards (Harbaugh should help the 49er passing attack, and with Crabtree hobbled, Edwards could break out)
round 11: GB Def (didn't have any position players I liked)
round 12: James Jones (my one sleeper pick this season, if you can even call him one)
round 13: Greg Olsen (new team will hopefully utilize his great talent)
round 14: Jerome Simpson (needed wr depth. Not sure what he can do without a proven qb)
round 15: James Starks (when in doubt, take a Packer! He's looked great in camp and could beat out Grant for the starting job)
round 16: Miami (great pass rush and that's usually the cause of turnovers)
round 17: Colt McCoy (between him and Alex Smith as my emergency qb. Went with youth)
round 18: Seabass (my top rated kicker and he was still there despite 6 other kickers being taken)
round 19: Vinatieri (when in doubt, take a kicker on a team that will score a lot)
round 20: Emmanuel Sanders (hoping he becomes Ben's #2 target. Need WR depth more than RB)
Like most everyone that drafts, I really like my team. Flex position is a bit weak with Sanchez/McCoy, but if Moreno comes thru, I can always go 3 rb's. I don't always like the teams I draft, but in this draft it seemed that everyone I wanted, fell to my next pick. Not once did a player I targeted go a pick or two in front of me. We'll see how it turns out.
Scooter
"Jack Daniels" league 141
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