Tuesday, November 25
week 12
Many owners had players playing Monday night as evidence from the cut line. It moved almost 20 points from 91 to 108.92 just from the monday night game. Although many benefited from good games by Brees, Rodgers, L.Moore and Jennings, some people who were comfortably sitting at 110+ before the game ended up missing the cut. I bet there are a few owners who still haven't realized they missed the cut and are telling their friends they have a 1:281 chance to become a millionaire.
Why is that? Because 7 teams who just missed the cut had the Packers defense and the -7 points they brought to the table. If I were almost 30 points above the cut line with only 1 game to go and my defense yet to play, I'd wouldn't be worried about the cut line either. However, one beauty of this game, giving negative points for poor defensive performances, cost these owners a chance to stay alive. GoFavreYourself was probably the most upset of these owners as he/she missed the cut by 2.16 despite having Michael Turner and Matt Cassell in his/her lineup. Looks like they got Favred.
B Dawgz faced similar fate as they missed the cut by 4 and had the Arizona defense who scored -6. The "Forgot to stay on top of things" award goes to Surfside Scooters who started Brandon Jacobs (having Chester Taylor on the bench) and missed the cut by 2.8 points. The Giants have led to the award winner both weeks, as owners who started Carney last week and missed the cut were hit with this dubious honor.
On another note, Chad S. had 4 of his 8 Cocktails and Dreams teams advance. Donald T apparently also has multiple teams still alive, but I'm not aware of his team names. Major props to both of you!
Week 13 is going to be the first true test as only the top 50% (141) will advance. Add that to the fact there are 3 Thursday games, and you have an interesting week. Many owners will have to endure a long wait if they have a majority of their team playing early this week. While owners who don't have anyone playing, will be rooting for low scoring games and will be watching to see the point totals put up.
Two weeks down, three to go til Vegas! Good luck to all who are left.
Sunday, November 23
lost luster
In an attempt to make up ground on people, I'm doing something that I never would have done if I were still in the Las Vegas bracket. I'm starting Trent Edwards over Kurt Warner. This is the week I think Warner will get hurt. Edwards has a good match-up against KC and even though he's been horrible lately, he still has big game potential in my mind. I'm sure Lee Evans wants to erase the memory of his zero catch performance on Monday. The other lineup decision I made this morning was to insert Eddie Royal for Kevin Walter. I planned on keeping Royal out, but after thinking about it, I'm sure that Asomugha will give Marshall a hard time, so Royal may end up being Cutler's main target. He tore up the Raiders in week 1.
Good luck to all in the Vegas bracket!
Tuesday, November 18
FFOC - made for tv?
Earlier this week, Donald made a post in a FFOC thread saying that he felt fantasy football, and the FFOC in particular, can gain country wide publicity and eventually take off similar to the way texas hold’em did a few years ago. The WSOP main event grew exponentially in both participants and prize money once it hit ESPN's air waves. Could the same thing happen to the FFOC? Poker is boring to watch, yet it was able to translate to tv. Why not fantasy football?
I would definitely argue that “yes, it can”. Why can’t you get good ratings by having a weekly show dedicated to the FFOC? In the summer months, you can televise some drafts. During the season, you can interview owners on why they made certain lineup decisions as well as have your weekly start ‘em/ sit ‘em segments. Then on game day, you can show the live scoring with owner reactions while watching the games.
Some say this is too boring to attract viewers. What exactly is poker? It’s a long, boring game of cards, which involved a lot of thinking. How do they get good tv ratings? Who would watch poker besides poker junkies? I’m sure 4 years ago when ESPN talked about televising poker, all these questions came up and look how good that turned out. There are plenty of ways to edit a fantasy football league in order to get the general public interested in watching it on tv each week. After all, this is the era of reality tv and people will watch anything!
Here are my ideas for making a weekly reality show on the FFOC which can be aired on the NFL network or ESPN2 and I guarantee it’s ratings will be just as good as the WSOP or any other sports reality show that clutters the tv networks.
1> Offer a special FFOC league which costs MORE than the normal league. This league will be the feature league for the show. The draft will be televised. Owners will have weekly “confessionals” as to who they are starting and why. They will need to be accessible to be on camera during the games on Sunday/Monday. It would probably help if the league consisted of people who lived within an hour of each other for filming purposes. It might even help to have all the owners watch the games together. It may be better to charge the same price, but take audition tapes/resumes so you get a league of colorful owners who would make for good television
2> Hire a good looking guy and girl to co-host the show. They obviously should know their football, unlike Tony Kornheiser.
3> In Episode 1, have the co-hosts introduce the basics of fantasy football, the FFOC scoring system, and an introduction to the 10 owners in the feature league. This would also be a good time to plug the FFOC and let viewers know where they can sign up for the contest.
4> Episode 2 will be the draft. I would show the first 2 or 3 rounds in full, and have the co-hosts comment on the picks, especially ones that are off the board. You will also need a way for other owners to comment on the selections by other owners as well as comments on who they plan on taking or who they can’t decide on. You would obviously want to keep this as low budget as possible, so I would have the draft done online as all league drafts are. Put each owner in a separate room with a mic and camera on them, outside the range of other owners. Whether you film them at their homes while they draft, or have a location where you can set the owners up at computers in different rooms. With good editing as well as colorful owners, I think you could make a draft exciting tv. Between the co-hosts comments, the owners comments about other picks, and the owner reactions when they get the player they want or when a player they want gets taken right ahead of them….you could get a very entertaining show, even for the viewer who doesn’t play fantasy football.
5> Episodes 3-11 will be dedicated to each week of the FFOC regular season. The first segment will be clips of the owners making out their lineups and any tough decisions they have. The co-hosts can handicap each match-up and predict who will win. Then the middle segment will be dedicated to the games themselves. Show owner reactions when their players score, get stuffed, get hurt…. The last segment will be the aftermath. Owners saying woulda coulda shoulda. Maybe someone will think they have a million dollar team while another owner is upset they drafted so poorly. The first segment could also include the free agent bidding for the week and reaction to the results.
6> After the 9 week regular season, you’ll have the league championship episode. This episode will be similar to the regular season weeks, only you concentrate on the league’s only match up. Allow owners to talk trash. Have each owner and the co-hosts analyze the match-up and make predictions. It would be great to have both owners in the same room watching all the games to get better reaction and let them feed off each other.
7> Once a league champion is declared, you can have 1 or more episodes following the Las Vegas bracket. Since viewers will be connected with this league winner, you can have his/her reaction each week until they are eliminated. You can combine multiple weeks into one episode for the Vegas bracket results
8> Assuming the feature league champ doesn’t make it to Vegas, you can somehow segway from that owner’s run at a million to the final 15 in Vegas. Whether you dedicate an entire show to the final 15 in Vegas or just show highlights and the trophy ceremony as part of the final episode depends on how much you want to hype the FFOC.
Because so many people play fantasy football around the country, I definitely think an FFOC reality show could work. I’m not a producer and don’t deal with ratings, but you would have to think that ESPN2 would get more interest in this than showing the WSOP final episode for the 20th time or drag racing.
The show itself would work. The hardest part would be determining the league to follow. I think you have to take applications for the feature league starting in May. The owners must agree to be televised and available each week to watch the games and get filmed doing so. It would help if the owners lived in the same general area, but I suppose it could work if you had a separate camera crew in each owner’s home, but that would probably be more costly.
Another option would be to have a former NFL great analyze the match-ups each week and offer advice to owners as to who they think should start. Once again, this could add to the cost, but it may also add viewers who want to see Jerry Rice, John Elway, and other former greats.
Stan and Seth…I know you just wanted to make it through the first season and the most important thing is to have the software working as well as possible so the contest is a success. However, the next step would be to pitch this reality show to ESPN and/or the NFL Network as a form of advertising for your contest. With the right owners, I think this could be a good ratings show. It will never turn into American Idol, but I think you’d be able to draw some average Joe’s who never played fantasy football in their life. It could also help the show if one owner was a rookie who has never played. It could make for some funny comments when they pick Brett Favre in the first round or think that Shaun Alexander is still a valuable player.
What do the readers think? Can this be a success? What could be added to my suggestions in order to increase general interest in the show? I guess you could make it a celebrity league? Have them pay their own money to enter. That would be very funny viewing as I’m sure their knowledge isn’t nearly what many roto-geeks have. The more I think about it, the show should definitely be a celebrity league. You can have some former athletes, musicians and actors/actresses with name recognition. Maybe Jerry could round up 9 of his former teammates and his league could be the one featured? I think this is a great idea and someone with connections should run with it.
suspense
I wasn't online reading the forums or watching the cut line change as the game went on. I was under the weather and actually slept through most of the game, but got to see the excitement in the final quarter. I marked a few keys to the week and wanted to see how many people advanced or just missed advancing due to the following:
-Steelers D not getting credit for the fumble recovery and TD as they should have (6 pts)
-People who started John Carney at kicker when he wasn't active
-Lee Evans owners who got 0.0 points out of him
-Dawson/Lindell owners who made out big or lost due to the last few big kicks
-Anyone who missed by less than a point and had someone playing last night
The worst way to miss the cut is when the league admits they made a mistake, and it costs your team points because they can't/won't change it. I call this, the "Charger Effect" in reference to the Chargers this year when Ed Hocule was so juiced up that he blew his whistle when the play wasn't dead. It cost the Chargers the game, and possibly a playoff birth and all the Chargers got were an apology.
Both "Anarchy3" and "Steelers rule" would have made the cut if their Steeler DST got credit for those 6 points. Instead, they join me in the 1st and goal bracket with nothing to show except an apology from the NFL.
Now we move on to the last minute when Phil Dawson drills a 55 yarder giving his owners a 6 point swing, which led to Buffalo needing to score and Lindell losing 2 points due to missing a 46 yarder by 4 feet.
"Dallas Dragons" were the big winner. They made the cut by 1.32 thanks to Dawson's long field goal. Two teams, went from above the cut line to below the cut line with Lindell's miss. They would have made it if Buffalo never got in field goal range. My guess is that "Loonzilla" and "25-1" will put Rian Lindell on their kicker blacklist and never draft him again because of that miss.
It's funny how owners hold grudges and will not draft players who have hurt their team in the past. This may also hold true for "Team JB2", "Americas Team", "Medfield Mechanics", "Rags to Riches", "LR Roosters", and "djkevkev" who all would have made the cut if Lee Evans had at least 60 yards receiving. Instead, he got a big goose egg, and they fall to the 1st and goal bracket. I wonder if any will bench Evans next week in spite, only to have him go off for 140 yds and 2 tds?
Week 9 was the last week for roster moves, and I went back and forth on various roster moves. One of them was kicker. Did I want to help my thin RB and WR groups by keeping only Jason Elam or should I play it safe and pick up a second kicker? I decided to play it safe because you can't afford to take a 0.0 from your kicker. Well a few teams went with 1 kicker and when the Giants decided to go with Lawrence Tynes instead of John Carney, they lost their chance at a million dollars.
Two of the first 3 teams to miss the cut (by less than half a point), had John Carney as their only kicker. No teams got shut out this week, so if they started any kicker, they would have made the cut. Sorry "Snakes ona Plain" and "Flash80". I'm sure you'll learn from your mistake and carry 2 kickers next year.
For "Jay travis" and "Superbass", I have no sympathy. They were just below the cut line and also had Carney. However, they had Longwell on the bench so this was a matter of not doing your homework. To be fair, I didn't watch any pre-games this week so I don't know when/if it was announced that the Giants were making Carney inactive.
Here are a few other teams that were so close last night, but didn't quite do it:
"Rubber Buns and Liquor" - needed 2 more yds out of Braylon Edwards (plenty of drops again)
"Godz" - needed 5 more yards from Winslow Jr
"CA Trash Talkers" - started BJGE on Thursday because at the time, it was made clear Portis would not play. I hate thursday games
"Dick Hertz" - got to watch brady quinn take 2 knees to drop .2 points and he missed the cut by .5. At least the two kneel downs didn't drop him below the cut, but he just needed 3 more rush yards or 8 more pass yards from Quinn. Wouldn't it have been ironic if the "victory formation" kneel downs cost a team a shot at a million dollars?
With all these close scores, it's been brought up that a league stat change could be one person's savior and another team's worst enemy. "Casey's biggest fans" and "Rock Ur World 58" are currently at the bottom of the cut line. They will now have to sweat out a few days to make sure no team gets an extra few tenths of a point due to a stat change to leap from them for 467th place. The chances are slim, but they still can't celebrate about making it.
The FFOC hasn't posted anything in the rules about stat changes, but so far, Elias has published stat changes prior to the first game of the next week. There are cases where they change it weeks later, but I would have to think that scores are final as of midnight Wednesday, so people know they move on to week 12. I can see problems if a stat change comes up after the week 12 games start, which would have changed who advances and who doesn't. Suggestion for next year Stan....cover this in the rules. Say stat changes will be incorporated up until 24 hours before the first game of the following week (or something to the sort) to cover yourself.
If any of you have a hard luck story from missing the cut this week, please leave a comment about it. I tried to find all the ones readily apparent, but there may have been a freak play or two in another game that I missed which cost someone a point and led to you missing the cut.
Good luck in week 12 to the 467 teams that advanced.
Monday, November 17
The week that was....so far
I got the big game out of Gore that I anticipated. Romo was a bit of a disappointment, but I wasn't really sure how he'd do in his first game back. Warner threw for a lot of yards, but only 1 TD. Other than Gore, none of my players scored a TD, so I figured that there was a chance I wouldn't be back in the Vegas bracket next week.
I stumbled home around 11 pm and went to check out the great live scoring system. With no players left, I was at 88.78 points. I figured this wouldn't be enough, but there weren't a lot of big performances this week, so I was still hopefully. I went to the cut line, and it was around 91. Just short. =( I'm sure the cut line will go up a few more points with many owners having players who are going tonight.
I knew I didn't have a good enough team to go all the way, but I hoped that my good match-ups would get me through at least one week. Now it's off to the first and goal bracket, which I have no chance to win unless somehow I'm the only one who scores over 200 pts in week 16. My week 1-10 avg is only around 107 and i'm off to a slow start for the next scoring period. Anything can happen with one week's score being 1/3 of your total, but I won't keep my fingers crossed.
I enjoyed catching up with the FFOC forums to see owner reactions from yesterday. I must give thanks to Ryan R, with whom I've had many debates with in the forums, for wishing me luck with Romo and Witten last night. It wasn't enough though. Also to Iceman, who will have to sweat out tonight's game to see if Braylon Edwards remembers how to catch the ball. His blog has been enjoyable to follow and he remains optimistic about making the cut. I don't like his chances, but with only being 10 points from the cut, it's quite possible that Edwards will get him over the hump. I'll definitely be rooting for Braylon.
I'm sure the forums will begin to thin out as owners lose their chance at a million. There will probably be owners with sour grapes if they barely miss the cut because of this play or that play or some player getting injured for them. There will also be teams who had a good week 11 and they'll get their hopes up thinking they can win it all, only to have their team tank it one of the next few weeks.
I'll be interested to see the excitement of each owner who advances to the latter rounds. There may be even more posts of nervous owners wondering who they should start because they pressure of putting out a winning lineup will cloud their judgment. Money does crazy things to people.
With my chance at all the notoriety of being declared the fantasy football champ of the world all but gone, it's time to start concentrating on my local leagues. All but one of my local teams are doing well, so it should be another profitable season for me.
Good luck to all who advanced and those who need big performances tonight!
Thursday, November 13
Props
I'm sure the owners who had Matt Cassel's 36+ points are feeling comfortable. My team definitely has it's work cut out for them.
Major props to the FFOC for designing a great live scoring system. It gives updated team scores every few minutes and ranks the teams accordingly. You also can see where you rank and what the current cut score is. You may also click on any team to see their lineup. Very cool stuff and I'm sure many owners will love this new toy. A few minor requests to make it perfect are:
1> a column showing the teams remaining minutes so you have a quick way of knowing how many players they have left, rather than opening up each individual team to check
2> a way to search for a specific team name so you can see how teams in your league are doing as well as teams owned by friends
These are just minor requests. Overall, the widget gets a score of 96 out of 100 in my book.
I had a minor scare today as there was a report that Gore has a concussion and may not play against the pitiful Rams. Now it appears as if he'll play, but I still wonder if they'll use him as much as they did Monday knowing he's banged up. I can see him getting 60 yds and a td in the first half, then sitting out the second half if the team has a 2 score lead. I'll keep my fingers crossed. Some good news is that Portis probably won't play, which will force owners to use their 3rd/4th rb. Hopefully some of them would have used Leon Washington, but no longer can since they played already.
Sunday is my birthday and the only gift I want is to be safely above the cut line so I can move on to week 12. I don't expect to go further than week 12, but it sure would be nice to make the next step towards a million dollars (before taxes)!
Here we go...
I thought about torturing myself and putting all rosters in a spreadsheet to keep my own live scoring at home, but I decided not to waste my time. I'm guessing that Thomas Jones is the one playing tonight who will be on the most rosters. Cotchery, Coles, Moss and NE defense are other players I'll root against. I don't think Favre and Cassel will be on many teams since Warner, Cutler, Brees and Rodgers were the big qb's this year so far and qb's are what carry most teams. Yes, it helps to have stud rb's, but qb's are the key.
I'm sure on Sunday there will be many owners locked in on their computers and crackberrys trying to get standings updates after every big play or score. I won't be one of them. I will just go to the local establishment and cheer for the Packers and Chargers as always. I will keep an eye out for how my players are doing, but I won't worry about where I stand until after the games on Sunday.
As of now, I don't have anyone playing on Monday, so I will probably torture myself Monday and go thru the rosters of people behind me to see if I'm in jeopardy of not making the cut. I thought about starting Trent Edwards just so I'd have hope going into Monday, but he's been horrible lately and I don't trust the Buffalo weather this time of year. Cleveland's secondary is a great matchup, but I am going for lightning and starting Tony Romo. He is the guy who could lead me to the promised land because I doubt that he's on more than 10% of the rosters.
I look forward to being entertained in the FFOC forums tomorrow with posts of people who had players tonight and either think they are a lock to move thru to week 12 or are panicking because one of their players pulled a Braylon Edwards.
As of right now, my lineup is as follows:
QB - Warner and Romo
RB - Gore and Hightower
WR - Walter, Royal and Avery (may play Chambers instead of Walter)
TE - Witten
K - Elam
Def - Jax
Let the games begin!
Tuesday, November 11
Vegas Bracket
For the eliminator style bracket, I will post my key players and predicted busts for the week. Since the top players will be on multiple rosters, there will be 2-4 players each week which make/break teams. Here are my "key performers" for week 12.
Monster Matchups:
QB Jay Cutler (Den) - I normally don't expect players to have monster games back to back, but Brees lit up Atlanta last week and without a running game, Cutler will be throwing early and often. The yards will definitely be there on Sunday. Just hope he gets 2+ TD's to go with those yards.
QB Aaron Rodgers (GB) - The weather won't be great, but the Bears secondary is horrible. Kerry Collins and his no name WR's were able to tear them apart, so what do you think Rodgers and a very good WR corp will do? As long as there's no rain/snow, expect a big game from #12.
RB Frank Gore (SF) - I'm happy to have him. Even though it's a short week and he was banged up at the end of the game last night, he is set to have a monster week. San Fran finally appears to want to run the ball under Singletary and they are at home against St Louis who appears to have given up. Thomas Jones and the Jets ran all over them last week, and Gore and crew are much more explosive than Thomas Jones. The week before that, Tim Hightower ran for 100+ and a TD.
RB Matt Forte (Chi) - The Packers are banged up and have had trouble stopping the run. Kyle Orton says he'll play, so I'm sure Chicago will want to run even more and put as little stress on his sore ankle as possible. That combined with poor weather should warrant 25+ carries for Forte.
RB Michael Turner (Atl) - He was a fantasy question mark for me to start the season, but has proven to be a very good signing for the Falcons. He faces a Bronco defense who is without their 2 best linebackers. Even with DJ Williams and Nate Webster, their defense has a lot of holes in it. Look for Turner to crack the century mark and score at least twice.
RB Brian Westbrook (phi) - Even though they are on the road, this game should be a blowout. Westbrook may rest the 4th quarter, but he'll already have 130+ total yards and a few TDs. Cincinnati is horrible and only look like an NFL team because Detroit is still in the league.
Stud players who could struggle Week 11:
QB Phillip Rivers (SD) - no QB looks forward to face Pittsburgh's blitzing defense. Add to that the fact San Diego is traveling cross country yet again, and the weather in the midwest has been cold and windy...not ideal for passing.
QB Brett Favre (NYJ) - I don't think many teams in the Vegas bracket are playing Favre, but he still makes my list. Bad weather and Bill Belicheck are the reasons. In week 2, Favre barely scored 10 points and I don't expect much more this week.
RB Maurice Jones Drew (Jax) - He carried a lot of teams in the league championship, but still only managed 11 carries. If he doesn't find the endzone, he has been useless this year. Don't expect him to find the end zone against Tennessee, although it is Tennessee's second straight road game which often tires out a team.
RB Brandon Jacobs (NYG) - Just like the Giants, he's been on a roll. The Ravens defense will be their toughest task so far and without speed, it's hard to have success against the speedy Ravens defense. If the Giants are going to move the ball it will have to be thru the air.
RB Adrian Peterson (Min) - A stud among studs, but he must leave his home turf in favor of Tampa's natural grass. Few defenses have been as stingy as Tampa this year, and look for them to put 8 in the box and make Gus Ferrotte beat them. I still laugh every time I say "Gus Ferrotte beat them".
Notice that I didn't list any WR's. Receivers are so unpredictable so I didn't even attempt to guess. I'd love to hear your ideas on who you think will have a monster game and which fantasy stud will fall on his face?
Monday, November 10
In game log
8:20 pm cdt - One quarter is in the books, and I'm more than 1/4 of the way to my goal of 21.69 points. 8.6 down and 13.09 to go keyed by a 21 yard run by Gore to end the quarter.
8:29 pm cdt - Looks like I may be able to go to sleep early. Warner throws a TD pass to Boldin putting me 6.15 points away from my first FFOC league championship. Now I can afford to have one of my players get injured and still have plenty of time to get the points needed to win.
9:14 pm - It's now half time and I am 1.19 points away from bringing the title home to title town. On a side note, I'm quite upset over the inconsistent officiating in the league. Yesterday, ADP takes his helmet off twice after plays in key moments of the Packer-Queen game, and no penalty. Vernon Davis apparently does it after his TD, and gets flagged for it. Did the refs in the Packer game not know the difference between a purple helmet and a white do-rag? Add that to the fact the zebras almost cost my second favorite team...the Chargers...a second victory with a phantom interference call. The refs can be against my teams all they want as long as I get paid back with a trip to Vegas in 6 weeks!
9:28 pm - Pop the corks...I now have the lead as the Cards are inside the 10 yard line to open the half. Only a ton of int's with no more yards from Warner, Gore and Hightower can stop me now. Time to start preparing for next week. Great year Michael. Good luck in the 1st and goal bracket!
10:04 pm - end of the 3rd quarter. With my match in hand, it's time to start rooting for fellow blogger "ice man". Coming into tonight, he had a 2.78 point lead with Warner going against Gore for his opponent. It's looking good for him as Warner currently sits at 18.64 compared to Gore's 9.4. Ice Ice baby!
Final Score: GoPackGo 114.32 - OPT18 95.38
Sunday, November 9
over confident?
Key for me was putting Moore in for Edwards once I saw the weather report. It cost me 6 points to have Avery for Henderson, but that's ok.
change
The only qb's I have playing this week are Warner and Edwards. Warner is a must start, but I decided that the windy conditions in New England favor me starting Mewelde Moore at flex instead. It's against my FFOC rules, but rules are made to be broken. Or was that records?
Game Day
The Saints game and the Jets game are two that will tell the most about our fate this week. He has 2 saints playing and I have Elam in that game. We each have a WR going in the Rams/Jets game. As stated previously, I hope to be within 30 points going into Monday night's game, where I'll feel confident in my 3 horses to pull through.
There's still a chance that if I am in good shape after the 4 pm game that I will put Mewelde Moore in for Hightower. Moore will definitely get 20 touches which Hightower isn't guaranteed. However, Hightower has the better matchup and has better upside. If I'm only down 20 after the 4 pm game, I will most likely but in Moore to be guaranteed 7 or 8 points meaning Warner and Gore only need to have below average games for me to win.
As my buddy TO says....get the popcorn ready and enjoy the show!
Friday, November 7
1 game down, 13 to go
Just got news that Willie Parker won't play, so now I have another decision to make. See if Tim Hightower stays hot, or go with Mewelde Moore? I'm going to actually check their opponents ypc allowed stats to possibly influence my decision. I always go of gut instinct from watching thousands of games over the year. If the numbers don't scream to start one or the other, I will most likely do some more hedging and start Hightower. Arizona should get at least 2 tds vs SF, and since I have Warner, starting Hightower should ensure that I get some td's on Monday if I need them. I also will now stick with D. Henderson as my third receiver to hedge against the number Brees will put up.
Thursday, November 6
Championship Preview
Everyone's dream for a million continues tonight as the Broncos and Browns face off. For those sports investors out there who care, I love Denver and the Over tonight. In my big championship match, both of us have one insignificant player going. I have Eddie Royal, who has been OK after he burst on the scene week 1. OPT18 has Matt Prater who should rack up some decent kicker points. I just have to miss for more PAT's than FG's.
Last week, he was without three of his Saint stars. Bush is still out, but he gets Brees and Colston back. Since New Orleans can't run, I look for these 2 to have big games. In my main roster decision this week, I decided to start Devery Henderson as my #3 WR over Donnie Avery. My gut tells me to start Avery, but I want Henderson to hedge against a huge game by Brees. Both these receivers are hit or miss, so it's not like I'm benching Reggie Wayne in favor of Henderson so I think it's worth the gamble.
I'm interested to see who he starts at RB/Flex. Slaton has been a top RB, so I'm sure he will start him, even though he goes against a tough Raven defense. Last week he started Kevin Faulk and Leon Washington over Thomas Jones. Will he make that mistake again? The Jets are heavy favorites, which sets the team up for a lot of rushes. He also has the wild card Ryan Torain. As of now he's no the bench, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him inserted in the starting lineup. My guess is he uses 2 of these 4 running back and does not put his other QB (Joe Flacco) at the flex. Personally, I think it's dumb not to start 2 qb's in this setup, but what do I know?
The most interesting part of this weeks championship match is that I get to sit back and root against his guys on Sunday. My 3 big guns all play Monday night, so they will know what they need. If I'm down by less than 35 going into Monday night, I'll take my chances with Warner, Hightower and Gore. If I'm down 50-60, then I'll be worried. Either way, I'll have one eye on the game and one eye on the live scoring Monday night. The good news is he doesn't have any niners or cardinals on his roster, so once I grab the lead, only negative yards or int's can lose it for me.
Wednesday, November 5
week 9
I had both our lineups written down, as of Thursday night when I left. Since I was at the game, and am not a crackberry addict, I could only see the scores of other games. No stats or nothing. I didn't care, because I loved watching the Packers. Or maybe it was all the Jack Daniels I drank? (Packer fans finished a whole bottle of JD at Coyote Ugly to win a contest of who could drink more...packer fans or titan fans. I still don't know what we won)
After the disappointing loss, I went back to McFaddens, who treated us great all weekend. I was half watching the Denver-Miami and Atlanta-Oakland games. I assumed I had won my match thanks to the big games by Kurt Warner, Trent Edwards and Tim Hightower. Orlovsky had a good game for OPT, butI didn't see any other big performances by his guys.
I drove back to Wisconsin on Monday and got home around halftime of the game. I had Washington's defense and they gave up a TD thanks in large part of a blocked punt, which I wasn't happy about.
After settling in, I anxiously went to the computer to see if I made the top 2. I got to my game against OPT, and I was winning by 6 or 7 points, which was not good, because I needed to win by 8.14. I then looked to CC Desperado's score, because if he lost a game, then my 2-0 would suffice to get me in (assuming washington didn't give up 24+ points in the second half without getting any sacks/ints). He won his match, but only had 82.62 points. I then looked at the other scores, and he was currently 6th, 1.02 points out of 5th, but he didn't have any players left. I then double checked the others in the top5 and those within striking distance of my 90 points, to ensure I couldn't get leap frogged by 2 people to drop out of the top 5. I couldn't.
Just when I started feeling safe about being in the playoffs, the Stellers got 2 quick TD's to drop me 4 points. With 20+ minutes left in the game, I could conceivably lose my match, and a shot at a million dollars, if Pittsburgh got 2 more TDs. Thankfully, they didn't score any more and I finished 2-0 and Desperados went 1-1, so I was in and would get to face OPT again for the championship.
Yesterday, I looked over the matchups after seeing the Week 9 highlights, to see what transpired on Sunday helping me make the playoffs. Turns out I was super duper lucky to go 2-0.
- I won by 7.8, and he had Jennings drop a sure long TD pass, he started Leon Washington over Thomas Jones (I always start the back who gets more touches), and he had Kevin Curtis who got tackled at the 1 on one of his catches
- Desperados were 1.02 points out of the top 5, which would have knocked me down to 3rd. He/she has the best team in the league by far, which turned out to be their downfall. They had 6 guys on the bench who scored 15+ points (Ch. Johnson, Jacbobs, Rodgers, Benson, Driver, Rosenfels)
- Rob Bironas' missed field goal at the end of regulation cost him 3 points (2 for the miss and 1 for the shorter FG he made in OT)
- He had Matt Schaub, who got hurt in the 2nd quarter, so if he had stayed healthy, there's no doubt he wold have scored at least 1.02 more points
- I may not have won if Warner didn't get lucky on the TD pass to Urban which should of clearly been intercepted. That also may have led to Hightower getting less rushes due to the team not being ahead by a few scores
There's a lot of skill in shaping a fantasy roster, but there's also a lot of luck. Anyone's who's played fantasy football for a while, has been on both ends. Luckily this week I was on the winning end. Now anything can happen!
