Congratulation to Shane Schroeder from Fort Collins, CO on winning the first FFOC championship title and along with it, the million dollar first prize! I can only imagine the intensity in the room on Sunday as you watched all the games on the big screens side by side with your live scoring. What an adrenaline rush.
I don't think there was a lot of excitement on Monday as it appeared Shane had a comfortable lead the entire time. The excitement came in the fight for 2nd thru 10th. The drop off in money between these positions wasn't like the difference between 1st and 2nd, but to some, a few thousand dollars is still a big chunk of change. As it turns out Giantboys, the only team who had a chance to surpass Shane's Xfactor team going into Monday, was in the middle of the action til the bitter end. Chicago blocked a punt sending the game into overtime and moved him from 4th to 3rd, a $10,000 pay increase. When Forte caught an 14 yard pass he got within yards of 2nd place. Had he gained 3 or more yards on his two carries prior to the game winning field goal, Ken would have earned an extra $50,000 for passing Chad and moving into 2nd. What a time for the Packer defense to finally stop somebody!
Congratulation again to the 15 winners who had a blast in Vegas. I would also like to thank Jon, Aaron and Korey for their updates from Vegas during the weekend. I know some people had travel issues, but I'm glad everyone made it there safely and had a great time!
The biggest thanks goes to Stan, Seth, fanball, the many sponsors, and everyone else who helped put together the first FFOC season! I had a fun time as did most of the other owners. Your product was very good for a first year operation and I have no doubt things will continue to get better over time. Now that the foundation has been laid, people need to continue spreading the word so we can increase the number of entries each year and continue to be blessed with one owner becoming a millionaire each year.
I'm sure that just with current owners purchasing more teams next year, the number of entries will go up close to 10%. There will also be teams who didn't have success and will not be back, which is unfortunate, but expected. I'm interested to see how much national publicity comes out of this. I haven't seen much yet. One writeup in the paper can be viewed here: http://www.lvrj.com/sports/36620164.html
This will probably be my last blog for a while. I've had a great time writing about my FFOC experiences. Thanks again to Stan for giving me this forum to express my views and opinions. I got a late start, but hopefully next year, I can start blogging early with draft insights, updates, and predictions. I'm not worried that other owners will read it and possibly steal picks in front of me. I'm flexible enough when drafting and there are enough good players, that I should be able to build a solid team whether people know the players I like or not.
Thanks to all the readers who have been entertained by my posts. I hope your FFOC experience was made even better by reading the fun blogs posted by myself, Gisella and Dustin. Lastly, if you have any suggestions to improve the FFOC, feel free to email them to me (saw111671@yahoo.com) before the middle of January. I plan on combining my thoughts with some of those I've read in the forums and sending Stan a letter listing some ideas. Any improvements that a majority of the users want that can be implemented for 2009 will only make the FFOC even better.
Happy Festivus to all!
Tuesday, December 23
Monday, December 22
drum roll please
And the winner of the first ever MILLION DOLLAR grand prize for fantasy football is.....
...to be determined. However, the field was greatly narrowed yesterday down to Shane S (Xfactor) and Kenneth S (Giantboys). There are a handful of teams scrambling for 2nd and 3rd, but who really cares about that? Only these 2 teams have a realistic chance at winning first place. It comes down to Aaron Rodgers vs Matt Forte and the Bears defense. Every pick that Rodgers throws will be double joy/pain for these owners.
A few other teams are technically alive if Greg Olsen gets 8 touchdowns or Mason Crosby kicks 20 field goals, but in all likely hood, this will be a 2 team race. I wonder if the other 13 finalists have taken sides and will root for one or the other? It sounds like they are all having a good time and I'm sure it's an experience of a life time.
I haven't taken the time to do a full analysis of my lineup 'first guesses', but here's what I know...
Of the 14 lineup changes I said I would make on Friday, half of those moves were made by the owners. I'm sure weather was the biggest influence, but maybe my blog truly has power? Anyways...of the 7 moves that were made, 5 of them turned out beneficial and the other 2 were not. Of the ones I suggested, but weren't made, 4 would have been better and 3 would have been worse, and in some cases, much worse. This is assuming the Packers DST scores less than 18 points and Driver scores more than 3.0.
Tomorrow I will try and figure out the final standings had I been in control of the 15 lineups.
Best of luck Shane and Kenneth! I know one of you will be pretty disappointed, but you'll still get a good chunk of money and won't have to deal with all the media coverage when it's over. I'm definitely jealous that I wasn't good enough to make it to Vegas, especially since we got almost 2 feet of snow and have had wind chills around -30 all weekend here in Wisconsin.
...to be determined. However, the field was greatly narrowed yesterday down to Shane S (Xfactor) and Kenneth S (Giantboys). There are a handful of teams scrambling for 2nd and 3rd, but who really cares about that? Only these 2 teams have a realistic chance at winning first place. It comes down to Aaron Rodgers vs Matt Forte and the Bears defense. Every pick that Rodgers throws will be double joy/pain for these owners.
A few other teams are technically alive if Greg Olsen gets 8 touchdowns or Mason Crosby kicks 20 field goals, but in all likely hood, this will be a 2 team race. I wonder if the other 13 finalists have taken sides and will root for one or the other? It sounds like they are all having a good time and I'm sure it's an experience of a life time.
I haven't taken the time to do a full analysis of my lineup 'first guesses', but here's what I know...
Of the 14 lineup changes I said I would make on Friday, half of those moves were made by the owners. I'm sure weather was the biggest influence, but maybe my blog truly has power? Anyways...of the 7 moves that were made, 5 of them turned out beneficial and the other 2 were not. Of the ones I suggested, but weren't made, 4 would have been better and 3 would have been worse, and in some cases, much worse. This is assuming the Packers DST scores less than 18 points and Driver scores more than 3.0.
Tomorrow I will try and figure out the final standings had I been in control of the 15 lineups.
Best of luck Shane and Kenneth! I know one of you will be pretty disappointed, but you'll still get a good chunk of money and won't have to deal with all the media coverage when it's over. I'm definitely jealous that I wasn't good enough to make it to Vegas, especially since we got almost 2 feet of snow and have had wind chills around -30 all weekend here in Wisconsin.
Friday, December 19
first guessing
A favorite topic in the forums on Mondays and Tuesdays are "I should have started this guy instead of that guy" once they see "that guy" scored more points. Especially with WR's, it's hard to predict who will have a big game and who won't. Running backs and quarterbacks are much easier to project due to match-ups.
I'm sure there will be a lot of second guessing and people wishing they would have made a change as it would have won them an extra $3000 or even $900,000. I just went through everyone's current lineups, and here are the lineup changes I would do if I were the owners....
Cocktails and Dreams XIV - Slaton for C.Johnson...Oakland gives up 5 yds per carry so Slaton should have a field day. Johnson goes against a stingy Steeler D and still shares carries with White.
Bryant for Holt - Holt has done nothing this year. Bryant is the hot hand and Garcia sounds like he'll play. Garcia definitely always has an eye on Bryant.
Schaub for Cassel - Normally I'd go with Cassel, but the weather really has me scared. We just got 12 inches of snow here in Wisconsin and the front should be on the east coast on Sunday. Schaub doesn't have a great match-up, so I don't have much of a problem with Cassel.
Mike and Shea Dynasty - Driver for Walter...As stated numerous times, I think Houston will run all over Oakland. The good part about Walter is that Asumogha will be on Johnson. However, Driver does perennially well against the Bears and Green Bay will be throwing a lot on Monday
touched by an uncle - Jacobs for Romo...I don't like starting qb's against Baltimore, especially a turnover prone qb like Romo. Jacobs sounds determined to play this week and he's a load to stop. He also has the potential to score 3 tds every time he takes the field.
Hip ID liquos - J.Brown for Elam....Both are kicking in a dome, but Brown has the stronger leg and has had quite a few 50+ fg's this year. Also, with 4 other teams having Elam, this could be a spot for Hip to gain on his competitors. The Rams offense has been bad, which means FG's instead of TDs.
Wolf River Dragons - Pennington for Rhodes...OK...I'm a little late on this one, and Rhodes had a solid game. I still prefer to play a qb at the OP position unless you have 3 stud rb's. With Addai returning, Rhodes production was probably going to be limited.
Xfactor - Green Bay for Tennessee...Without Haynesworth and Vanden bosche, the potential for Tennessee to get sacks and turnovers is greatly less. I also can see Pittsburgh rolling up 30+ points this week against the battered D. Green Bay has been creating turnovers and playing in tough conditions on Monday night should keep the score low and turnovers likely.
Who Wha - Hill for Warner....Arizona has nothing to play for and will most likely be in a snow storm on the east coast where they struggle. I can see Warner getting less than 8 points. Martz returns to St Louis where the mad scientist made a name for himself. Hill has been performing well and look for Martz to try and pile on the points against his former team.
skowman - S.Jackson for MJD...once again, I'm late and MJD had a very nice game. So what do I know? I actually liked Drew's match-up this week, but I like Jackson's (and Slaton's) better. It's a move where I don't think you can go wrong. With Jackson's health issues, it's possible he wanted to go the safe route in case Jackson was a late scratch.
cocktails and dreams - slaton for D.Williams...As stated many times...I love slaton's match up and don't like Williams. Seems like I have the most disagreement with Chad's lineups. That's probably why he's so successful and I'm not.
K.Brown for Rackers...Rackers will be kicking in a snow storm and he seems to miss more FG's than does Brown. Brown has a good match-up with Oakland and should have decent weather as well.
rotoplay - holmes for bowe....I think this is a wash, and Kraig mentioned he wasn't sure which way to go. I just think Holmes has the ability to have a huge week where as Bowe will consistently give you 60-90 yds and once in a while throw in a TD. Holmes can get shut down, or have 130 yds and 2 TDs. I would go for the home run with a million bucks on the line.
Giantboys - Bulger for D.Williams...I was going to keep Williams and bench McNabb, but in the end, having 2 qb's won out. I think I'm just living in the past by liking Bulger this week.
The other 4 teams started the same lineup that I would. Good luck to everyone, and I won't say "I told you so" if my line-up change suggestion would have won you the million dollar prize. However, I will analyze my suggestions and see if these winners really know more than I do about FFL.
Safe travels and good luck!
I'm sure there will be a lot of second guessing and people wishing they would have made a change as it would have won them an extra $3000 or even $900,000. I just went through everyone's current lineups, and here are the lineup changes I would do if I were the owners....
Cocktails and Dreams XIV - Slaton for C.Johnson...Oakland gives up 5 yds per carry so Slaton should have a field day. Johnson goes against a stingy Steeler D and still shares carries with White.
Bryant for Holt - Holt has done nothing this year. Bryant is the hot hand and Garcia sounds like he'll play. Garcia definitely always has an eye on Bryant.
Schaub for Cassel - Normally I'd go with Cassel, but the weather really has me scared. We just got 12 inches of snow here in Wisconsin and the front should be on the east coast on Sunday. Schaub doesn't have a great match-up, so I don't have much of a problem with Cassel.
Mike and Shea Dynasty - Driver for Walter...As stated numerous times, I think Houston will run all over Oakland. The good part about Walter is that Asumogha will be on Johnson. However, Driver does perennially well against the Bears and Green Bay will be throwing a lot on Monday
touched by an uncle - Jacobs for Romo...I don't like starting qb's against Baltimore, especially a turnover prone qb like Romo. Jacobs sounds determined to play this week and he's a load to stop. He also has the potential to score 3 tds every time he takes the field.
Hip ID liquos - J.Brown for Elam....Both are kicking in a dome, but Brown has the stronger leg and has had quite a few 50+ fg's this year. Also, with 4 other teams having Elam, this could be a spot for Hip to gain on his competitors. The Rams offense has been bad, which means FG's instead of TDs.
Wolf River Dragons - Pennington for Rhodes...OK...I'm a little late on this one, and Rhodes had a solid game. I still prefer to play a qb at the OP position unless you have 3 stud rb's. With Addai returning, Rhodes production was probably going to be limited.
Xfactor - Green Bay for Tennessee...Without Haynesworth and Vanden bosche, the potential for Tennessee to get sacks and turnovers is greatly less. I also can see Pittsburgh rolling up 30+ points this week against the battered D. Green Bay has been creating turnovers and playing in tough conditions on Monday night should keep the score low and turnovers likely.
Who Wha - Hill for Warner....Arizona has nothing to play for and will most likely be in a snow storm on the east coast where they struggle. I can see Warner getting less than 8 points. Martz returns to St Louis where the mad scientist made a name for himself. Hill has been performing well and look for Martz to try and pile on the points against his former team.
skowman - S.Jackson for MJD...once again, I'm late and MJD had a very nice game. So what do I know? I actually liked Drew's match-up this week, but I like Jackson's (and Slaton's) better. It's a move where I don't think you can go wrong. With Jackson's health issues, it's possible he wanted to go the safe route in case Jackson was a late scratch.
cocktails and dreams - slaton for D.Williams...As stated many times...I love slaton's match up and don't like Williams. Seems like I have the most disagreement with Chad's lineups. That's probably why he's so successful and I'm not.
K.Brown for Rackers...Rackers will be kicking in a snow storm and he seems to miss more FG's than does Brown. Brown has a good match-up with Oakland and should have decent weather as well.
rotoplay - holmes for bowe....I think this is a wash, and Kraig mentioned he wasn't sure which way to go. I just think Holmes has the ability to have a huge week where as Bowe will consistently give you 60-90 yds and once in a while throw in a TD. Holmes can get shut down, or have 130 yds and 2 TDs. I would go for the home run with a million bucks on the line.
Giantboys - Bulger for D.Williams...I was going to keep Williams and bench McNabb, but in the end, having 2 qb's won out. I think I'm just living in the past by liking Bulger this week.
The other 4 teams started the same lineup that I would. Good luck to everyone, and I won't say "I told you so" if my line-up change suggestion would have won you the million dollar prize. However, I will analyze my suggestions and see if these winners really know more than I do about FFL.
Safe travels and good luck!
Thursday, December 18
Vegas bracket odds...hot off the Bellagio presses
Five days, 16 games, 15 teams, and over a million dollars. That's what is on the line for week 16 of the FFOC. For the first time, the standings will be determined on a FFOC formula, not solely by the week 16 point total. Currently first and 15th are separated by 25.98 points. Three teams are within 10 points of the leader. As the number of teams go down each week, the separation between the first and second place weekly total has increased (1,7,12,15), so it wouldn't totally surprise me if Skowman goes from worst to first, but it will take one heck of a week by his unique players.
The final 15 rosters aren't as similar as I anticipated they would be. The most common players are Tony Gonzalez (10) and Aaron Rodgers (7). The only other players on at least 1/3 of the teams are Drew Brees (5), Ryan Torain (6), NY Jets (6), Andre Johnson (6), Calvin Johnson (5), Larry Fitzgerald (5), D'Angelo Williams (5), Chris Johnson (5), Michael Turner (5), Jason Elam (6) and Kris Brown (5).
The winner is going to be the person with the most unique players that have a big week and avoids having a common player who has a down week. Of the key players in the final 15, I like some of the match ups a lot and some I don't like at all. Here's my opinion on the key match-ups:
Very favorable match-ups...could help a team make up a lot of ground
- Steve Slaton (4 teams) - Oakland gives up over 5 yards per carry and hasn't shown any improvement lately. Even Sammy Morris rushed for 135 against them last week. Combine a poor run defense with a very good pass defense and I see a huge day for Steve Slaton. Possibly 35+ points.
- Steven Jackson (3) - He appears to be getting back to full health and last week he got the 20+ carries he is used to getting. On a terrible team in a terrible game, look for Steven Jackson to carry to work load as he is their only hope at winning this game.
- Drew Brees (5) - New Orleans should have no problem scoring points. The only question is will Brees throw for all of the TD's? Will Pierre Thomas run them in? Will they split up the TD's? Either way, they should rack up a lot of yards and someone will be getting TD's.
- Pierre Thomas (2) - Could be the key to the million dollars as only 2 owners have him. He came up big for them last week with a 30+ point game. There's no question he can do it again this week against Detroit.
- Aaron Rodgers (7) - won't be as much of an impact player since half the teams have him. However, he will be solid as always against the weak secondary of Chicago. The weather doesn't worry me and I think Chicago will grab an early lead meaning Green Bay may abandon the run earlier than normal.
- Matt Forte (3) - I predicted a big day for MJD against Green Bay's banged up defense and they pretty much shut him down. He did manage 2 td's to make it a productive fantasy week. I don't see any way Green Bay keeps Forte under 100 yards and they've given up a lot of rushing TD's the past 3 weeks. Forte could be the one providing this weeks Monday night miracle just as Slaton and Williams did weeks 13 and 14.
- Calvin Johnson (5) - He seems to score every week. Now that Orlovsky is healthy, the Lions have a valid passing attack. New Orleans doesn't play a lot of defense on the road so I look for Johnson to rack up a lot of garbage yards and at least one score.
- Roddy White (2) - Another player who could be the MVP this week. Minnesota should limit Turner's effectiveness leaving it up to Ryan and White to beat them. Their mediocre secondary did well against Arizona's potent pass offense last week, but I think that was more the exception than the rule since they had a 14-0 lead in a matter of minutes.
Players who have been studs, but could be duds...
- Tony Romo (1) - Hard to expect much from a qb playing against Pittsburgh or Baltimore
- Chris Johnson (5) - the combination of splitting carries and facing a very tough defense would make me hesitate to start Chris Johnson if I had another decent option. His best chance for success is to get involved in the passing game
- Kurt Warner (3) - He has a lot of things going against him. Traveling cross country, possible high winds and cold weather, and a game that means very little to Arizona. But even a bad day for him is still 12 points.
- D'Angelo Williams (5) - The Giants have been doing very well against the run lately. Williams had the benefit of facing some weak defenses the past 3 or 4 weeks. I saw a few teams who I think should bench him
- Andre Johnson (6) - I don't think he'll be a total bust, but with Asomugha on the other side and the inability for Oakland to stop the run, I don't think he'll get more than 6 or 7 points this week. He's too good to totally shut down, but don't expect 15+ points this week like he's been getting lately
With these match-ups in mind, the Bellagio has posted the following odds to win. The comments next to each team are my own, and in no way represent the views of the people at Bellagio's sportsbook:
2:1 Touched by an uncle 2 - The leader in the clubhouse and only 1 other team is within 9 points of him. Brees, T.Jones and Turner will keep him in contention. All he needs is for his receiving corp to come through and he could be a millionaire. He needs the Santana Moss from September, not December. It will also be interesting to see if he goes with the better match-up at OP (Schaub), or the better player (Romo or Ch.Johnson).
2:1 Hip ID Liquos - The only team close to TBAU right now. I think he has more players with good match-ups, but not having Slaton could hurt. Steven Jackson can make up that difference. His wild card player is Eli Manning. He's the only owner who has him although I see the NY/Car game being a low scoring affair, so don't expect a lot out of "the other Manning".
4:1 Xfactor - The team name is apropos as he has a very unique roster and other than Aaron Rodgers and Andre Johnson, most of his players don't appear on other teams. He can either make a big splash or a big nose dive. With so many unique players, he has many wild cards, but I narrowed it down to 2...Laverneous Coles and Phillip Rivers. Favre always thrived going against Mike Holmgren and he's due for a good game. Coles could be the beneficiary. River has had some monster games and being the only owner with him is a good sign for the Xfactor.
6:1 Cocktails and Dreams XIV - Currently 10 behind the leader. He's an owner with experience and has played match-ups perfectly lately. I'm not a fan of Chris Johnson's match-up this week, but Chad has shown that he's not afraid to bench star players if other match-ups are better. He has a huge wild card in Adrian Peterson. ADP can go off for 30+ points at any time and only C&D XIV can benefit from such a score.
6:1 Rotoplay - This team originally game out at 10:1 odds but after I put a few grand on them, the odds dropped to 6:1. Why do I like a team that has to pass 9 teams and some teams by more than 12 points? I must be crazy! (this is true) He has the two best qb match-ups this week with Brees and Rodgers. He also has two of the 3 best running back match-ups with Slaton and Forte. He will have to bench Chris Johnson, but I think that's a good thing. His wild card is Santonio Holmes. He and Roethlisberger have combined for some big games the past few years. Andre Johnson shredded the Titan secondary last week and without Haynesworth or VandenBosch, Big Ben should have plenty of time to throw. DON'T CALL IT A COMEBACK! ROTOPLAY WINS A MILLION DOLLARS!
10:1 Who Wha - Currently sitting 4th, he has to hope for a good week just to stay in the top 7. There's a true lack of firepower on this team especially with Warner's bad match-up. Shaun Hill can neutralize that and keep him in contention.
10:1 Cocktails and Dreams - Has the big 3 of Brees, Rodgers and Slaton. Probably your best play for the odds on the board right now. The key is who will he start at his 2nd rb? Westbrook is my choice, but he may feel differently than me on the match-ups for D'Angelo and/or Chris Johnson. Westbrook doesn't have an easy match-up, but he seems to excel against the good teams because Philly has to rely on him to gain yards.
10:1 skull crushers III - has the 2 top qb's along with Pierre Thomas. His WR's are fairly unique and all could have big games. The biggest question mark is his 2nd running back. Both Jacobs and Barber are banged up. With Barber playing on Saturday, he may have to pull the trigger and play him in the bad match-up not risking that Jacobs won't play on Sunday. I'm going on the limb and saying his Giants defense is the wild card that could push him to the top. Delhomme has a history of being turnover prone and the Giants could easily take advantage of this.
10:1 www.peepdot.com - He'll be a fan favorite in Vegas as he starts recruiting talent for this future porn site. He has some good match-ups and no really bad match-ups. I expect him to be in the middle of the pack. His chance to win a million lies with Peyton Manning. As the only owner, he can benefit greatly. However, Indy historically struggles against Jacksonville, even though the Jags D is not very intimidating this year.
12:1 kram madness 3 - Will gain on most with Pierre Thomas. Ronnie Brown has a great match-up and should be a solid #2 rb this week. His OP is going to be the keys this week. As mentioned above, Delhomme is not a great play. Addai is coming off injury and his productivity is a big question mark. Rhodes may be the safer play, but how many touches will he get? I would go with the hot hand in Shaun Hill. With Hill and Brown, he can take the risk he needs to go for the million. I assume everyone is in it to win it and aren't going to try and play things safe just so they can hold on to a top 5 spot.
20:1 Mike and Shea Dynasty - A lack of good match-ups combined with the potential down weeks for D'Angelo and Warner will make it hard for this team to be a legitimate contender. Favre and Westbrook are his only hopes to move up to the top 3 this weekend.
40:1 Giantboys - Already behind the 8 ball, this team lacks talent, especially at QB. McNabb has a bad match-up. Bulger has a good match-up but is just plain bad. I don't completely rule him out because of his 3 musketeers - LT, Forte and Colston. This unique trio should produce big this week and if they all go nuts, he has a chance. If I were the owner, I would take a big risk to try and go for the million. I'd start Bulger at qb and Hines Ward at OP over D'Angelo Williams. That's probably why I'm blogging and he's still participating. =)
75:1 Wolf River Dragons - Has a long way to climb with no good rb match-ups. I would start Kevin Smith against the weak New Orleans defense. His only hope is a big week out of Chad Pennington, but I don't see this happening.
80:1 Junk Yard Dawg - I still don't know how he made it this far with Favre as his one and only QB. Just making it this far is a long shot. He has very good match-ups at RB, but Giantboys has the same tandem and is 8 points ahead of him, so winning it all is very unlikely even if Favre has a 4TD game.
100:1 Skowman - Being low man on the totem pole, he has a long way to climb. His nice combination of Brees, Slaton and Jackson will be nullified by teams above him. Jay Cutler gives him a fighting chance to move up a handful of spots this week. The only chance to move to the top 3 is for a guy like Wes Welker or Ted Ginn Jr to have a huge week.
The final 15 rosters aren't as similar as I anticipated they would be. The most common players are Tony Gonzalez (10) and Aaron Rodgers (7). The only other players on at least 1/3 of the teams are Drew Brees (5), Ryan Torain (6), NY Jets (6), Andre Johnson (6), Calvin Johnson (5), Larry Fitzgerald (5), D'Angelo Williams (5), Chris Johnson (5), Michael Turner (5), Jason Elam (6) and Kris Brown (5).
The winner is going to be the person with the most unique players that have a big week and avoids having a common player who has a down week. Of the key players in the final 15, I like some of the match ups a lot and some I don't like at all. Here's my opinion on the key match-ups:
Very favorable match-ups...could help a team make up a lot of ground
- Steve Slaton (4 teams) - Oakland gives up over 5 yards per carry and hasn't shown any improvement lately. Even Sammy Morris rushed for 135 against them last week. Combine a poor run defense with a very good pass defense and I see a huge day for Steve Slaton. Possibly 35+ points.
- Steven Jackson (3) - He appears to be getting back to full health and last week he got the 20+ carries he is used to getting. On a terrible team in a terrible game, look for Steven Jackson to carry to work load as he is their only hope at winning this game.
- Drew Brees (5) - New Orleans should have no problem scoring points. The only question is will Brees throw for all of the TD's? Will Pierre Thomas run them in? Will they split up the TD's? Either way, they should rack up a lot of yards and someone will be getting TD's.
- Pierre Thomas (2) - Could be the key to the million dollars as only 2 owners have him. He came up big for them last week with a 30+ point game. There's no question he can do it again this week against Detroit.
- Aaron Rodgers (7) - won't be as much of an impact player since half the teams have him. However, he will be solid as always against the weak secondary of Chicago. The weather doesn't worry me and I think Chicago will grab an early lead meaning Green Bay may abandon the run earlier than normal.
- Matt Forte (3) - I predicted a big day for MJD against Green Bay's banged up defense and they pretty much shut him down. He did manage 2 td's to make it a productive fantasy week. I don't see any way Green Bay keeps Forte under 100 yards and they've given up a lot of rushing TD's the past 3 weeks. Forte could be the one providing this weeks Monday night miracle just as Slaton and Williams did weeks 13 and 14.
- Calvin Johnson (5) - He seems to score every week. Now that Orlovsky is healthy, the Lions have a valid passing attack. New Orleans doesn't play a lot of defense on the road so I look for Johnson to rack up a lot of garbage yards and at least one score.
- Roddy White (2) - Another player who could be the MVP this week. Minnesota should limit Turner's effectiveness leaving it up to Ryan and White to beat them. Their mediocre secondary did well against Arizona's potent pass offense last week, but I think that was more the exception than the rule since they had a 14-0 lead in a matter of minutes.
Players who have been studs, but could be duds...
- Tony Romo (1) - Hard to expect much from a qb playing against Pittsburgh or Baltimore
- Chris Johnson (5) - the combination of splitting carries and facing a very tough defense would make me hesitate to start Chris Johnson if I had another decent option. His best chance for success is to get involved in the passing game
- Kurt Warner (3) - He has a lot of things going against him. Traveling cross country, possible high winds and cold weather, and a game that means very little to Arizona. But even a bad day for him is still 12 points.
- D'Angelo Williams (5) - The Giants have been doing very well against the run lately. Williams had the benefit of facing some weak defenses the past 3 or 4 weeks. I saw a few teams who I think should bench him
- Andre Johnson (6) - I don't think he'll be a total bust, but with Asomugha on the other side and the inability for Oakland to stop the run, I don't think he'll get more than 6 or 7 points this week. He's too good to totally shut down, but don't expect 15+ points this week like he's been getting lately
With these match-ups in mind, the Bellagio has posted the following odds to win. The comments next to each team are my own, and in no way represent the views of the people at Bellagio's sportsbook:
2:1 Touched by an uncle 2 - The leader in the clubhouse and only 1 other team is within 9 points of him. Brees, T.Jones and Turner will keep him in contention. All he needs is for his receiving corp to come through and he could be a millionaire. He needs the Santana Moss from September, not December. It will also be interesting to see if he goes with the better match-up at OP (Schaub), or the better player (Romo or Ch.Johnson).
2:1 Hip ID Liquos - The only team close to TBAU right now. I think he has more players with good match-ups, but not having Slaton could hurt. Steven Jackson can make up that difference. His wild card player is Eli Manning. He's the only owner who has him although I see the NY/Car game being a low scoring affair, so don't expect a lot out of "the other Manning".
4:1 Xfactor - The team name is apropos as he has a very unique roster and other than Aaron Rodgers and Andre Johnson, most of his players don't appear on other teams. He can either make a big splash or a big nose dive. With so many unique players, he has many wild cards, but I narrowed it down to 2...Laverneous Coles and Phillip Rivers. Favre always thrived going against Mike Holmgren and he's due for a good game. Coles could be the beneficiary. River has had some monster games and being the only owner with him is a good sign for the Xfactor.
6:1 Cocktails and Dreams XIV - Currently 10 behind the leader. He's an owner with experience and has played match-ups perfectly lately. I'm not a fan of Chris Johnson's match-up this week, but Chad has shown that he's not afraid to bench star players if other match-ups are better. He has a huge wild card in Adrian Peterson. ADP can go off for 30+ points at any time and only C&D XIV can benefit from such a score.
6:1 Rotoplay - This team originally game out at 10:1 odds but after I put a few grand on them, the odds dropped to 6:1. Why do I like a team that has to pass 9 teams and some teams by more than 12 points? I must be crazy! (this is true) He has the two best qb match-ups this week with Brees and Rodgers. He also has two of the 3 best running back match-ups with Slaton and Forte. He will have to bench Chris Johnson, but I think that's a good thing. His wild card is Santonio Holmes. He and Roethlisberger have combined for some big games the past few years. Andre Johnson shredded the Titan secondary last week and without Haynesworth or VandenBosch, Big Ben should have plenty of time to throw. DON'T CALL IT A COMEBACK! ROTOPLAY WINS A MILLION DOLLARS!
10:1 Who Wha - Currently sitting 4th, he has to hope for a good week just to stay in the top 7. There's a true lack of firepower on this team especially with Warner's bad match-up. Shaun Hill can neutralize that and keep him in contention.
10:1 Cocktails and Dreams - Has the big 3 of Brees, Rodgers and Slaton. Probably your best play for the odds on the board right now. The key is who will he start at his 2nd rb? Westbrook is my choice, but he may feel differently than me on the match-ups for D'Angelo and/or Chris Johnson. Westbrook doesn't have an easy match-up, but he seems to excel against the good teams because Philly has to rely on him to gain yards.
10:1 skull crushers III - has the 2 top qb's along with Pierre Thomas. His WR's are fairly unique and all could have big games. The biggest question mark is his 2nd running back. Both Jacobs and Barber are banged up. With Barber playing on Saturday, he may have to pull the trigger and play him in the bad match-up not risking that Jacobs won't play on Sunday. I'm going on the limb and saying his Giants defense is the wild card that could push him to the top. Delhomme has a history of being turnover prone and the Giants could easily take advantage of this.
10:1 www.peepdot.com - He'll be a fan favorite in Vegas as he starts recruiting talent for this future porn site. He has some good match-ups and no really bad match-ups. I expect him to be in the middle of the pack. His chance to win a million lies with Peyton Manning. As the only owner, he can benefit greatly. However, Indy historically struggles against Jacksonville, even though the Jags D is not very intimidating this year.
12:1 kram madness 3 - Will gain on most with Pierre Thomas. Ronnie Brown has a great match-up and should be a solid #2 rb this week. His OP is going to be the keys this week. As mentioned above, Delhomme is not a great play. Addai is coming off injury and his productivity is a big question mark. Rhodes may be the safer play, but how many touches will he get? I would go with the hot hand in Shaun Hill. With Hill and Brown, he can take the risk he needs to go for the million. I assume everyone is in it to win it and aren't going to try and play things safe just so they can hold on to a top 5 spot.
20:1 Mike and Shea Dynasty - A lack of good match-ups combined with the potential down weeks for D'Angelo and Warner will make it hard for this team to be a legitimate contender. Favre and Westbrook are his only hopes to move up to the top 3 this weekend.
40:1 Giantboys - Already behind the 8 ball, this team lacks talent, especially at QB. McNabb has a bad match-up. Bulger has a good match-up but is just plain bad. I don't completely rule him out because of his 3 musketeers - LT, Forte and Colston. This unique trio should produce big this week and if they all go nuts, he has a chance. If I were the owner, I would take a big risk to try and go for the million. I'd start Bulger at qb and Hines Ward at OP over D'Angelo Williams. That's probably why I'm blogging and he's still participating. =)
75:1 Wolf River Dragons - Has a long way to climb with no good rb match-ups. I would start Kevin Smith against the weak New Orleans defense. His only hope is a big week out of Chad Pennington, but I don't see this happening.
80:1 Junk Yard Dawg - I still don't know how he made it this far with Favre as his one and only QB. Just making it this far is a long shot. He has very good match-ups at RB, but Giantboys has the same tandem and is 8 points ahead of him, so winning it all is very unlikely even if Favre has a 4TD game.
100:1 Skowman - Being low man on the totem pole, he has a long way to climb. His nice combination of Brees, Slaton and Jackson will be nullified by teams above him. Jay Cutler gives him a fighting chance to move up a handful of spots this week. The only chance to move to the top 3 is for a guy like Wes Welker or Ted Ginn Jr to have a huge week.
Wednesday, December 17
How they got here
In reading the forums, you always have owners sharing their sob stories as to why they lost a particular match or how unlucky they were to miss the cut line. You also hear teams who either didn't win their league or got knocked out of the Vegas bracket early, yet they would have been above the cut every week since.
I'm sure there are hundreds of teams that can play the woulda coulda shoulda game. Let's face it. When cutting down from 6660 teams to 15 teams, a lot of good teams will be left out and it takes some luck to get by each week. Rather than hearing sob stories, I'm going to shed light on how some of these 15 teams could have been eliminated, but weren't.
Aaron (www.peepdot.com soon to be Hasenpfeffer Attack) listed some of his close calls in the forum ( http://www.ffoc.com/forum/thread.php?thread_id=2648 ). That's more info and detail that I have, so please take a look at his post. I am just going to go over some of the close calls during the elimination rounds of the contest.
Week 11 - all 15 finalists made it through with ease
Week 12 - skowman gets 32.92 from Brees on Monday night to push his way into the top 281 by a slim margin of 1.56 pts
Week 13 - Steve Slaton scored 2 TD's and racked up over 70 yards in the last 5 minutes of the Monday night game helping hasenpfeffer attack, skowman and rotoplay all jump above the cut line. Junk yard dog (.66 above) and wolf river dragons (2.86) narrowly eluded the late cut line surge.
Week 14 - It was deja vu all over again as D'Angelo Williams broke loose for 2 4th quarter touchdowns, the last one being with under 2 minutes left where he admittedly should have gone down at the 1 and ensured a Panther victory. If he had taken a knee short of the goal line neither Wolf River Dragons nor Who Wha would be in the finals. The late surge by Williams and Antonio Bryant owners, almost knocked out Cocktails and Dreams which made the cut by .7 pts. If he didn't make the cut, he probably would have second guessed lineup decisions as he had Brian Westbrook (34.3), Antonio Bryant (34.0) and D'Angelo Williams (31.20) all sitting on his bench. Sometimes it's not good to have a loaded team because you have to logically guess which one of your stud players will have the big week and which will be held in check.
Also this week, Junk Yard Dog and skowman barely made the cut thanks to a big second half by Steve Smith on Monday night.
Week 15 - Hip IP Liquos was the cut line at 122.36. A few teams had a chance to pass him in the last 8 minutes of the Cleveland/Philly game, but he just held on. Giantboys got in thanks to a good game by McNabb who was pulled after making his 2nd td pass. Had the Eagles run the ball in, Kenneth probably wouldn't be heading to Vegas.
If you play fantasy football long enough, you'll be on both ends of these good breaks/bad breaks. It's amazing how much a few inches can change a match up or cut line. The difference between a made or missed field goal. Having a receiver make a 74 yard catch only to be tackled at the 1 yard line so the running back (on your opponents team) can get the easy touchdown. Seeing an easy completion by your quarterback go right through the hands of the receiver and into the hands of a defender so you lose points instead of gain points. It's the roller coaster ride that makes fantasy football an adrenaline rush each and every Sunday. I wouldn't change it for the world.
I go through enough highs and lows in a regular season fantasy match up, so I can't imagine how the final 14 owners will be feeling in Vegas on Sunday as their chance at ONE MILLION DOLLARS is on the big screens in front of them. Hopefully they're feeling hung over from partying with Jerry Rice all night!
I'm sure there are hundreds of teams that can play the woulda coulda shoulda game. Let's face it. When cutting down from 6660 teams to 15 teams, a lot of good teams will be left out and it takes some luck to get by each week. Rather than hearing sob stories, I'm going to shed light on how some of these 15 teams could have been eliminated, but weren't.
Aaron (www.peepdot.com soon to be Hasenpfeffer Attack) listed some of his close calls in the forum ( http://www.ffoc.com/forum/thread.php?thread_id=2648 ). That's more info and detail that I have, so please take a look at his post. I am just going to go over some of the close calls during the elimination rounds of the contest.
Week 11 - all 15 finalists made it through with ease
Week 12 - skowman gets 32.92 from Brees on Monday night to push his way into the top 281 by a slim margin of 1.56 pts
Week 13 - Steve Slaton scored 2 TD's and racked up over 70 yards in the last 5 minutes of the Monday night game helping hasenpfeffer attack, skowman and rotoplay all jump above the cut line. Junk yard dog (.66 above) and wolf river dragons (2.86) narrowly eluded the late cut line surge.
Week 14 - It was deja vu all over again as D'Angelo Williams broke loose for 2 4th quarter touchdowns, the last one being with under 2 minutes left where he admittedly should have gone down at the 1 and ensured a Panther victory. If he had taken a knee short of the goal line neither Wolf River Dragons nor Who Wha would be in the finals. The late surge by Williams and Antonio Bryant owners, almost knocked out Cocktails and Dreams which made the cut by .7 pts. If he didn't make the cut, he probably would have second guessed lineup decisions as he had Brian Westbrook (34.3), Antonio Bryant (34.0) and D'Angelo Williams (31.20) all sitting on his bench. Sometimes it's not good to have a loaded team because you have to logically guess which one of your stud players will have the big week and which will be held in check.
Also this week, Junk Yard Dog and skowman barely made the cut thanks to a big second half by Steve Smith on Monday night.
Week 15 - Hip IP Liquos was the cut line at 122.36. A few teams had a chance to pass him in the last 8 minutes of the Cleveland/Philly game, but he just held on. Giantboys got in thanks to a good game by McNabb who was pulled after making his 2nd td pass. Had the Eagles run the ball in, Kenneth probably wouldn't be heading to Vegas.
If you play fantasy football long enough, you'll be on both ends of these good breaks/bad breaks. It's amazing how much a few inches can change a match up or cut line. The difference between a made or missed field goal. Having a receiver make a 74 yard catch only to be tackled at the 1 yard line so the running back (on your opponents team) can get the easy touchdown. Seeing an easy completion by your quarterback go right through the hands of the receiver and into the hands of a defender so you lose points instead of gain points. It's the roller coaster ride that makes fantasy football an adrenaline rush each and every Sunday. I wouldn't change it for the world.
I go through enough highs and lows in a regular season fantasy match up, so I can't imagine how the final 14 owners will be feeling in Vegas on Sunday as their chance at ONE MILLION DOLLARS is on the big screens in front of them. Hopefully they're feeling hung over from partying with Jerry Rice all night!
Tuesday, December 16
Professional
A lot of personalities came out during the first 15 weeks of the first annual Fantasy Football of Champions contest (www.ffoc.com) in which the first place prize is ONE MILLION DOLLARS. One of them is Chad S. from Omaha, NE.
As the Vegas bracket started, it became readily apparent that he had purchased a lot of teams and many of them were doing well. I believe he had 25 teams in all and I think 11 of them won their league championship. So even before the big payouts were determined, he had already made money off his championships and free entries for next year. Anything else would be gravy.
As the weeks went on, Chad became more vocal in the chat rooms. It was mainly to answer questions about him and his teams or to offer advice on who to start. I never saw him tug his own cap or pat his own back. I also never saw him make derogatory comments towards another person in the forums. Something that unfortunately has become a daily occurrence.
It turns out that Chad does this for a living, something which I didn't think was possible. But I guess if you study enough and get in enough nation wide contests, you could probably make some decent money with enough good breaks. Not only is he a professional when it comes to fantasy football, but he also appears to be a professional person (for the reasons stated above). I'm sure the other 13 owners in Vegas will pick his brain for knowledge and come away knowing he's a great guy as well as an excellent eye for talent/match-ups.
Since he will never brag about his success, let me do it for him. He has 2 teams in the final 15, which means worst case scenario, he gets a free weekend in Vegas with at least $7500 in winnings (on top of the money he made in his numerous league championship). The winnings may not end in Vegas. He also has 3 teams with a legitimate shot at finishing in the top 10 of the 1st and goal bracket. He currently has teams placed 6th, 16th and 38th. I have a feeling teams will have to score at least 160 points this week in the smaller brackets to have a chance at winning the secondary prizes.
Some people didn't give Chad credit stating that with 25 teams, how hard is it to get one team to the final 57, much less 2? I believe it's all skill in getting 2 teams to the top 57 out of 6660. Yes, your chances are mathematically much better having 25 teams compared to the 1 team that I bought. However, you still need to draft well, budget your free agent money well, and prepare for match ups that lie ahead when shaping your final roster in week 9. I'm sure there are people who bought as many and possibly more teams than Chad, but we never heard from them because their teams were eliminated a long time ago. Since Chad's teams had a lot of success and they are all named "Cocktails and Dreams nn", he was easily identified as an owner who had a lot of teams.
I have no vested interest or loyalties as to who wins the ONE MILLION DOLLARS this weekend, however if one of Chad's teams end up on top, I will know that because of his skill and professional attitude, he is very deserving of the title as the first million dollar winner in fantasy football history!
Good luck to everyone!
As the Vegas bracket started, it became readily apparent that he had purchased a lot of teams and many of them were doing well. I believe he had 25 teams in all and I think 11 of them won their league championship. So even before the big payouts were determined, he had already made money off his championships and free entries for next year. Anything else would be gravy.
As the weeks went on, Chad became more vocal in the chat rooms. It was mainly to answer questions about him and his teams or to offer advice on who to start. I never saw him tug his own cap or pat his own back. I also never saw him make derogatory comments towards another person in the forums. Something that unfortunately has become a daily occurrence.
It turns out that Chad does this for a living, something which I didn't think was possible. But I guess if you study enough and get in enough nation wide contests, you could probably make some decent money with enough good breaks. Not only is he a professional when it comes to fantasy football, but he also appears to be a professional person (for the reasons stated above). I'm sure the other 13 owners in Vegas will pick his brain for knowledge and come away knowing he's a great guy as well as an excellent eye for talent/match-ups.
Since he will never brag about his success, let me do it for him. He has 2 teams in the final 15, which means worst case scenario, he gets a free weekend in Vegas with at least $7500 in winnings (on top of the money he made in his numerous league championship). The winnings may not end in Vegas. He also has 3 teams with a legitimate shot at finishing in the top 10 of the 1st and goal bracket. He currently has teams placed 6th, 16th and 38th. I have a feeling teams will have to score at least 160 points this week in the smaller brackets to have a chance at winning the secondary prizes.
Some people didn't give Chad credit stating that with 25 teams, how hard is it to get one team to the final 57, much less 2? I believe it's all skill in getting 2 teams to the top 57 out of 6660. Yes, your chances are mathematically much better having 25 teams compared to the 1 team that I bought. However, you still need to draft well, budget your free agent money well, and prepare for match ups that lie ahead when shaping your final roster in week 9. I'm sure there are people who bought as many and possibly more teams than Chad, but we never heard from them because their teams were eliminated a long time ago. Since Chad's teams had a lot of success and they are all named "Cocktails and Dreams nn", he was easily identified as an owner who had a lot of teams.
I have no vested interest or loyalties as to who wins the ONE MILLION DOLLARS this weekend, however if one of Chad's teams end up on top, I will know that because of his skill and professional attitude, he is very deserving of the title as the first million dollar winner in fantasy football history!
Good luck to everyone!
Monday, December 15
Live game log
7:48 pm cdt - Not even 5 minutes into the game and McNabb hits Kevin Curtis for 6. Could this be the start of Rube Nation's miracle comeback? The rushing yards by Westbrook officially knock your mom from possibly going to Vegas. Good run harold. Cinderella lost (her) slipper.
7:57 pm - Darnell Dinkins drops an easy TD pass for Cleveland. I think he's on the take as reports say touched by an uncle 2 slipped him a few grand in pre-game warm ups to not score points against the Philly defense. The field goal however, drops the 4 teams with the Eagles defense 3 points as the shutout is now gone.
8:10 pm - I heard a lot of oohs and ahs when McNabb's pass was deflected high in the air and two Cleveland DB's were there to intercept it, only to collide with each other and give the Eagles another chance. McNabb then misses a wide open LJ Smith in the endzone making them settle for a short FG. This puts Who Wha in the field of 15 and only INT' s by McNabb or a missed FG by Akers can prevent Dwain from going to Vegas.
8:29 pm - Jon T (skull crushers II) was happy to see DeShaun Jackson make a big catch to get him up over 120 points and in contention. But then DJax (sorry Darrel Jackson) showed his inexperience as a qb when he had a wide open hank basket but instead of lobbing it up over the linebacker to him, he tried to throw it on a line and it was intercepted. One step forward and one step back for Jon. The owners with no players are rejoicing and hoping for a long Cleveland drive.
8:35 pm - Pick 6 for the Eagles. That should put skowman and touched by an uncle 2 in for sure. That knocks out Donald's last team (beantown's best). It's mathematically possible that teams can lose points and fall behind him, but very very unlikely. Even if Cleveland scores a lot of points, this 6 point play should offset any negative points they may get. Braylon Edwards has been productive and if he can work in a TD or two, Shelly F may never take his jersey off! For Shelly's sake, I hope Romeo Crennell doesn't have any plays in the play book where Edwards throws a pass.
8:56 pm - In what could turn out to be the plays that changed Vegas, the half ends in wild fashion. First, Westbrook gets stopped less than a yard short of the goalline. A TD would have cemented Chad and Michael's spot in Vegas (even though I've already anointed them as in). Then McNabb throws an interception on the next play since Phil didn't have any time outs and didn't want to risk not gaining 8 inches on a running play. The pick really only hurts Giantboys as they need McNabb to stay hot and get them in. And on the same play, I thought Cleveland had an easy TD, which would have dropped down Korey of rotoplay.com a few much needed points, but Westbrook's hustle saved him (for now).
As it stands now, I have eliminated 4 teams from any chance of making it: your mom, beantown's best, rock ur world 58 and orange juice. They were replaced in the top 15 with coctails and dreams, who wha, skull crushers II, and touched by an uncle 2. The next swap of top 15 will be either rotoplay or giantboys knocking out Gargoyles and possibly mark's dogs as well.
It looks like I may have been one off on where the cut line would end with the top 11 teams coming into tonight not having any players going. Now the biggest suspense for me is whether or not Chad's second team will withstand a second half comeback by naked boot legs, prevent defense, and rotoplay giving him 2 teams in the top 15. Some expect him to get at least 1 in since he bought 20+ teams, but I'm sure there are plenty of owners that bought just as many teams and they won't have any teams going to Vegas, much less two. Chad had a great inaugural FFOC season!
9:30 pm - the long Eagles drive helped Korey out, as there is now less than 20 minutes left for Cleveland to score again and possibly drop him out of the top 15. Rick is sitting at home hoping for a Josh Cribbs kick return for a TD. Not much else happening right now.
9:54 pm - the interception by the Eagles gives Rotoplay some cushion. Unless the Browns get up to 14 points for the game, Gargoyles will be eliminated.
9:57 pm - the TD pass by McNabb puts Giantboys into the top 15 and eliminates mark's dogs for now and Gargoyles for good. Now Greg and his Hip ID liquos team has to worry. If Braylon Edwards has a big drive or two, naked boot legs can eliminate them.
10:07 pm - The eagles have pulled their offensive starters, so it appears the final 15 is set with one spot to be determined. Naked boot legs needs 5.2 more points out of Braylon Edwards to knock Hip id liquos out of the money. In the long shot that Cleveland goes on a scoring rampage, Rotoplay can still drop out, but that's highly unlikely. It also looks like Chad will squeak in with 2 teams in Vegas. Does that mean he gets to fly in 3 friends with him at the cost of the FFOC? I think he's earned that right. :-)
10:11 pm - sorry to jinx you Korey. Just like that, Brandon McDonald finishes what he started at the end of the first half. He takes a Kevin Kolb pass back to the house to get Cleveland up to 10 points. Now another TD and rotoplay will drop out of the top 15 and mark's dogs will sneak back in (unless edwards gets 5 more points then it would be naked boot legs knocking out rotoplay). Just when I was about to go to bed, things got interesting again.
10:29 pm - One last drive by Cleveland doesn't go very far as Shelly and Mark put their heads in their hands thinking what could have been. Congratulations to the following 15 who appear to be heading to Vegas!
Mark W - Kram madness 3
Dwain M - Who Wha
Shane S - Xfactor
Aaron W - www.peepdot.com
David S - skowman
Jeremy S - junk yard dawg
Eric H - touched by an uncle 2
Michael B and partner - mike and shea dynasty
Chad S - cocktails and dreams
Kenneth S - giantboys
David S - wolf river dragons
Korey G - rotoplay
Jon T - skullcrushers II
Chad S (again) - cocktails and dreams xiv
Greg M - Hip id liquos
Condolences go out to Mark and his dogs who finished .18 out of the top 15. Let the woulda coulda shoulda's begin. As it turns out, my pre-game top 15 prediction was correct with one exception. Korey G made it on the strength of Philly's defense which bumped out Mark's Dogs.
7:57 pm - Darnell Dinkins drops an easy TD pass for Cleveland. I think he's on the take as reports say touched by an uncle 2 slipped him a few grand in pre-game warm ups to not score points against the Philly defense. The field goal however, drops the 4 teams with the Eagles defense 3 points as the shutout is now gone.
8:10 pm - I heard a lot of oohs and ahs when McNabb's pass was deflected high in the air and two Cleveland DB's were there to intercept it, only to collide with each other and give the Eagles another chance. McNabb then misses a wide open LJ Smith in the endzone making them settle for a short FG. This puts Who Wha in the field of 15 and only INT' s by McNabb or a missed FG by Akers can prevent Dwain from going to Vegas.
8:29 pm - Jon T (skull crushers II) was happy to see DeShaun Jackson make a big catch to get him up over 120 points and in contention. But then DJax (sorry Darrel Jackson) showed his inexperience as a qb when he had a wide open hank basket but instead of lobbing it up over the linebacker to him, he tried to throw it on a line and it was intercepted. One step forward and one step back for Jon. The owners with no players are rejoicing and hoping for a long Cleveland drive.
8:35 pm - Pick 6 for the Eagles. That should put skowman and touched by an uncle 2 in for sure. That knocks out Donald's last team (beantown's best). It's mathematically possible that teams can lose points and fall behind him, but very very unlikely. Even if Cleveland scores a lot of points, this 6 point play should offset any negative points they may get. Braylon Edwards has been productive and if he can work in a TD or two, Shelly F may never take his jersey off! For Shelly's sake, I hope Romeo Crennell doesn't have any plays in the play book where Edwards throws a pass.
8:56 pm - In what could turn out to be the plays that changed Vegas, the half ends in wild fashion. First, Westbrook gets stopped less than a yard short of the goalline. A TD would have cemented Chad and Michael's spot in Vegas (even though I've already anointed them as in). Then McNabb throws an interception on the next play since Phil didn't have any time outs and didn't want to risk not gaining 8 inches on a running play. The pick really only hurts Giantboys as they need McNabb to stay hot and get them in. And on the same play, I thought Cleveland had an easy TD, which would have dropped down Korey of rotoplay.com a few much needed points, but Westbrook's hustle saved him (for now).
As it stands now, I have eliminated 4 teams from any chance of making it: your mom, beantown's best, rock ur world 58 and orange juice. They were replaced in the top 15 with coctails and dreams, who wha, skull crushers II, and touched by an uncle 2. The next swap of top 15 will be either rotoplay or giantboys knocking out Gargoyles and possibly mark's dogs as well.
It looks like I may have been one off on where the cut line would end with the top 11 teams coming into tonight not having any players going. Now the biggest suspense for me is whether or not Chad's second team will withstand a second half comeback by naked boot legs, prevent defense, and rotoplay giving him 2 teams in the top 15. Some expect him to get at least 1 in since he bought 20+ teams, but I'm sure there are plenty of owners that bought just as many teams and they won't have any teams going to Vegas, much less two. Chad had a great inaugural FFOC season!
9:30 pm - the long Eagles drive helped Korey out, as there is now less than 20 minutes left for Cleveland to score again and possibly drop him out of the top 15. Rick is sitting at home hoping for a Josh Cribbs kick return for a TD. Not much else happening right now.
9:54 pm - the interception by the Eagles gives Rotoplay some cushion. Unless the Browns get up to 14 points for the game, Gargoyles will be eliminated.
9:57 pm - the TD pass by McNabb puts Giantboys into the top 15 and eliminates mark's dogs for now and Gargoyles for good. Now Greg and his Hip ID liquos team has to worry. If Braylon Edwards has a big drive or two, naked boot legs can eliminate them.
10:07 pm - The eagles have pulled their offensive starters, so it appears the final 15 is set with one spot to be determined. Naked boot legs needs 5.2 more points out of Braylon Edwards to knock Hip id liquos out of the money. In the long shot that Cleveland goes on a scoring rampage, Rotoplay can still drop out, but that's highly unlikely. It also looks like Chad will squeak in with 2 teams in Vegas. Does that mean he gets to fly in 3 friends with him at the cost of the FFOC? I think he's earned that right. :-)
10:11 pm - sorry to jinx you Korey. Just like that, Brandon McDonald finishes what he started at the end of the first half. He takes a Kevin Kolb pass back to the house to get Cleveland up to 10 points. Now another TD and rotoplay will drop out of the top 15 and mark's dogs will sneak back in (unless edwards gets 5 more points then it would be naked boot legs knocking out rotoplay). Just when I was about to go to bed, things got interesting again.
10:29 pm - One last drive by Cleveland doesn't go very far as Shelly and Mark put their heads in their hands thinking what could have been. Congratulations to the following 15 who appear to be heading to Vegas!
Mark W - Kram madness 3
Dwain M - Who Wha
Shane S - Xfactor
Aaron W - www.peepdot.com
David S - skowman
Jeremy S - junk yard dawg
Eric H - touched by an uncle 2
Michael B and partner - mike and shea dynasty
Chad S - cocktails and dreams
Kenneth S - giantboys
David S - wolf river dragons
Korey G - rotoplay
Jon T - skullcrushers II
Chad S (again) - cocktails and dreams xiv
Greg M - Hip id liquos
Condolences go out to Mark and his dogs who finished .18 out of the top 15. Let the woulda coulda shoulda's begin. As it turns out, my pre-game top 15 prediction was correct with one exception. Korey G made it on the strength of Philly's defense which bumped out Mark's Dogs.
Sweating bullets
It is finally here! The last game before 15 teams realize they've won big money and a trip to Vegas with hopes to win a million dollars! Here are the top 15 heading into tonight's game:
By my counts, there are only a few teams who should feel safe that they are definitely in for Vegas.....
kram madness 3 owned by mark w
xfactor owned by shane s
www.peepdot.com owned by aaron w
junk yard dawg owned by jeremy s
mike and shea dynasty owned by mike and shea
cocktails and dreams owned by chad s (119.10 + westbrook)
Two of these 6 teams are currently below the cut line of 119.20, but they are very close and have a key player going tonight. Currently, I see two teams above the cutline who need more than a minor miracle to not get bumped below the cut line tonight....
Your mom owned by harold h.
Beantown's Best owned by Donald T.
The key players in tonight's game are the following (The number is my point prediction for tonight)
Donovan Mcnabb (19.28)
Brian Westbrook (15.10)
Kevin Curtis (3.8)
DeSean Jackson (13.6)
Braylon Edwards (5.1)
David Akers (7.0)
Phil DST (9.0)
Obviously a lot is going to happen when Philly has the ball. I'm sure some owners will secretly be rooting for Westbrook and/or McNabb to suffer a game ending injury. Cleveland's defense has been playing much better as of late, but I'm sure Philly will score at least 2 TD's tonight. Who gets them will be the question of the night.
Using my point predictions above, here is the final 15 heading to Vegas:
One interesting question I have going into the game, is "Are any gamblers who are relying on tonights results, going to hedge themselves with a Vegas wager?" How would they do this? For instance...someone who is pretty safe (wolf river dragons), but could get passed should a ton of points be score, can wager $1000 on the over tonight. If they lose the wager, they are almost certainly staying in the top 15 and will win the $1000 back plus a lot more. It's also possible they could win their wager AND stay in the top 15...a double bonus! Someone who can only be hurt by Westbrook or McNabb, may find propositions that have an over/under on Westbrook's total yards or whether or not he will score a TD. Does anyone plan to hedge their status by wagering on the game tonight?
Finally, here are my odds for making the top 15:
1:10000 - the 6 teams I listed above as 'almost guaranteed to be in'
1:5 - wolf river dragons
1:1 - skowman, who wha, skull crushers II, cocktails and dreams xiv, hip id liquos, mark's dogs, giantboys and touched by an uncle 2,
2:1 - gargoyles, orange juice, and rock ur world 58
5:1 - beantown's best and naked bootlegs,
20:1 - top gun and prevent defense
100:1 - the team to beat, rotoplay and baconisgood2
1000:1 - rube nation
10000:1 - your mom, madcow vi and rotoworld
The past 2 monday night games have featured a late long TD run which vaulted dozens of teams over the cut line. Could that happen again tonight with Westbrook? Or could a late Cleveland team take points away from the Philly defense dropping an owner below the cut line? I plan to keep a live game blog, so check in tonight and enjoy the excitement!
| kram madness 3 | 158.34 (done) |
| xfactor | 141.16 (done) |
| junk yard dawg | 133.48 (done) |
| wolf river dragons | 124.70 (done) |
| coctails and dreams xiv | 123.24 (done) |
| hip id liquos | 122.36 (done) |
| mark's dogs | 122.18 (done) |
| gargoyles | 121.08 (done) |
| orange juice | 120.94 (done) |
| rock ur world 58 | 120.82 (done) |
| beantown's best | 120.48 (done) |
| www.peepdot.com | 120.42 + mcnabb |
| skowman | 119.96 + phil dst |
| your mom | 119.92 (done) |
| mike and shea dynasty | 119.2 + westbrook |
By my counts, there are only a few teams who should feel safe that they are definitely in for Vegas.....
kram madness 3 owned by mark w
xfactor owned by shane s
www.peepdot.com owned by aaron w
junk yard dawg owned by jeremy s
mike and shea dynasty owned by mike and shea
cocktails and dreams owned by chad s (119.10 + westbrook)
Two of these 6 teams are currently below the cut line of 119.20, but they are very close and have a key player going tonight. Currently, I see two teams above the cutline who need more than a minor miracle to not get bumped below the cut line tonight....
Your mom owned by harold h.
Beantown's Best owned by Donald T.
The key players in tonight's game are the following (The number is my point prediction for tonight)
Donovan Mcnabb (19.28)
Brian Westbrook (15.10)
Kevin Curtis (3.8)
DeSean Jackson (13.6)
Braylon Edwards (5.1)
David Akers (7.0)
Phil DST (9.0)
Obviously a lot is going to happen when Philly has the ball. I'm sure some owners will secretly be rooting for Westbrook and/or McNabb to suffer a game ending injury. Cleveland's defense has been playing much better as of late, but I'm sure Philly will score at least 2 TD's tonight. Who gets them will be the question of the night.
Using my point predictions above, here is the final 15 heading to Vegas:
| kram madness 3 | 158.34 | |
| xfactor | 141.16 | |
| www.peepdot.com | 139.7 | |
| who wha | 138.78 | |
| mike and shea dynasty | 134.3 | |
| coctails and dreams | 134.2 | |
| junk yard dog | 133.48 | |
| skull crushers 2 | 130.3 | |
| skowman | 128.96 | |
| touched by an uncle 2 | 127.74 | |
| giantboys | 125.68 | |
| wolf river dragons | 124.7 | |
| cocktails and dreams xiv | 123.24 | |
| hip id liquos | 122.36 | |
| mark's dogs | 122.18 | |
One interesting question I have going into the game, is "Are any gamblers who are relying on tonights results, going to hedge themselves with a Vegas wager?" How would they do this? For instance...someone who is pretty safe (wolf river dragons), but could get passed should a ton of points be score, can wager $1000 on the over tonight. If they lose the wager, they are almost certainly staying in the top 15 and will win the $1000 back plus a lot more. It's also possible they could win their wager AND stay in the top 15...a double bonus! Someone who can only be hurt by Westbrook or McNabb, may find propositions that have an over/under on Westbrook's total yards or whether or not he will score a TD. Does anyone plan to hedge their status by wagering on the game tonight?
Finally, here are my odds for making the top 15:
1:10000 - the 6 teams I listed above as 'almost guaranteed to be in'
1:5 - wolf river dragons
1:1 - skowman, who wha, skull crushers II, cocktails and dreams xiv, hip id liquos, mark's dogs, giantboys and touched by an uncle 2,
2:1 - gargoyles, orange juice, and rock ur world 58
5:1 - beantown's best and naked bootlegs,
20:1 - top gun and prevent defense
100:1 - the team to beat, rotoplay and baconisgood2
1000:1 - rube nation
10000:1 - your mom, madcow vi and rotoworld
The past 2 monday night games have featured a late long TD run which vaulted dozens of teams over the cut line. Could that happen again tonight with Westbrook? Or could a late Cleveland team take points away from the Philly defense dropping an owner below the cut line? I plan to keep a live game blog, so check in tonight and enjoy the excitement!
Thursday, December 11
Ballin in Cinn City?
The dreaded headline came out last night that Cin-City Ballers owner Jim W and Hedgehogs owner Rick T have been anxiously waiting for all week:
" Elias and the NFL have made the following stat changes for Week 14:"
As I left you on Monday night, after the weeks totals were in, Cin-City Ballers were the final team in the top 57 with 118.5 points. Hedgehogs were overtaken by a few teams thanks to a late D'Angelo Williams touchdown run and sat at 118.0.
Thanks to the guys at Elias, these two teams have flip flopped in the standings mainly due to a change in the scoring of the Giants-Eagles game. They decided to change what was originally ruled a sack and said that it was a designed run so they gave McNabb a -4 yard carry on the play rather than a sack by the Giants. Cin-City Ballers started the Giants defense last week, so this lost point turns out huge. They did receive an extra 3 tenths of a point because Adrian Peterson had a 3 yard loss taken off his stat sheet as it was ruled a fumble by Tavarias Jackson. So in all, he drops .7 points down to 117.8 making Hedgehogs the last team to squeak in this week. I can't imaging the range of emotions both owners had from Monday until the stat change was announced.
Until I played the FFOC, I never really paid attention to stat changes and didn't realize how many there really were each week. None of my leagues have ever paid attention to them and I never thought of it making a difference. But in this contest with so many teams and a scoring system which uses partial points, one stat change can make a big difference.
Earlier this season, I read in a forum how Elias changed Antonio Bryant's stats for a game and it cost an owner his victory that week. That owner ended up losing out on a tie breaker and didn't make his league championship. That's tough luck when a person watching the film of a game decides your fate and ends a chance at winning a million dollars.
I guess there's not only instant replay in the NFL, but also in fantasy football!
" Elias and the NFL have made the following stat changes for Week 14:"
As I left you on Monday night, after the weeks totals were in, Cin-City Ballers were the final team in the top 57 with 118.5 points. Hedgehogs were overtaken by a few teams thanks to a late D'Angelo Williams touchdown run and sat at 118.0.
Thanks to the guys at Elias, these two teams have flip flopped in the standings mainly due to a change in the scoring of the Giants-Eagles game. They decided to change what was originally ruled a sack and said that it was a designed run so they gave McNabb a -4 yard carry on the play rather than a sack by the Giants. Cin-City Ballers started the Giants defense last week, so this lost point turns out huge. They did receive an extra 3 tenths of a point because Adrian Peterson had a 3 yard loss taken off his stat sheet as it was ruled a fumble by Tavarias Jackson. So in all, he drops .7 points down to 117.8 making Hedgehogs the last team to squeak in this week. I can't imaging the range of emotions both owners had from Monday until the stat change was announced.
Until I played the FFOC, I never really paid attention to stat changes and didn't realize how many there really were each week. None of my leagues have ever paid attention to them and I never thought of it making a difference. But in this contest with so many teams and a scoring system which uses partial points, one stat change can make a big difference.
Earlier this season, I read in a forum how Elias changed Antonio Bryant's stats for a game and it cost an owner his victory that week. That owner ended up losing out on a tie breaker and didn't make his league championship. That's tough luck when a person watching the film of a game decides your fate and ends a chance at winning a million dollars.
I guess there's not only instant replay in the NFL, but also in fantasy football!
Monday, December 8
Game blog
7:49 cdt and John Kasay kicks a 34 yd field goal. Delhomme had Muhammad open for a possible TD on 2nd down, but was sacked just before he could throw it. He then dropped a tough pass on 3rd down setting up the FG. Good start for Kalen! (EZTicketsearch_com) CUT LINE: 108.84
8:06 cdt and Matt Bryant clanks a 40 yd fg off the upright. Not good news for Truthseekers and Carolina Cowboys who needed a solid game out of him. It's good news for those with the Carolina defense as the shutout is still alive. CUT LINE: 109.02
8:37 pm - Bryant gets back the 2 pts he lost and one extra as the score is 3-3 with 6 minutes left. Both teams are moving the ball, but not many fantasy points are being scored. One of the underdogs coming into the week...Willboski....could have used a TD pass by Garcia there. He's now above the cut line, but could use some breathing room in case Garcia gets hurt or turns into Tony Picks-throw. CUT LINE: 109.06
8:47 pm: Carolina runs the ball right down Tampa's throat highlighted by a 40 yd run by D'Angelo Williams which pushed the cut line up a few points. The owners who need a monster night out of Williams are disappointed that Stewart got the goal line carry for the touchdown. Kalen and Zebb each get another point from Kasay to put them right at the cut line of 110.52
8:57: Halftime...Carolina gets a few sacks to give Boomers Big Bad Bombers a slight cushion above the cut line. CUT LINE: 110.52
HALF TIME NOTES: It's been a quiet half for Steve Smith (31 yds), but he seems to be getting open with regularity. Look for him to have a big second half, but not enough for my friend Gentan (BroadwayG) to make the cut. His brother Kalen is in more trouble than I thought. Currently above the cut line with John Kasay playing, there are 7-10 teams within 6 points of him with D'Angelo Williams playing. Chad still has all 3 of his Cocktails and Dreams teams above the cut line, but it won't take long for number 15 to be eliminated. The other two teams appear safe.
9:15 pm - Typical over-coaching in the NFL shows true again. For the second series in a row, Carolina runs the ball down Tampa's throat and suddenly Carolina out thinks themselves and tries passing. An INT for Delhomme wipes away Ryan C's (Reece's Team) hopes. CUT LINE: 111.4
9:19 pm - Before I can finish typing one post, Garcia under throws a wide open Antonio Bryant, but Bryant makes a nice play and gets into the endzone. My man William (Willboski) is now safely above the cut line at 120 pts. Team dat needs money inches closer to the cut line with the M.Bryant PAT. This could be good news for Steve Smith owners. CUT LINE: 111.32
9:26 pm - WOW! It's like I had a bug in Jake Delhomme's ear. Suddenly Steve Smith owners are happier now that he gets a 38 yard TD. I'm sure some of the owners are complaining that it wasn't 40 so they could get the 2 bonus points. The best news is right after I count Gentan out, he comes out of nowhere and is now ahead of both the cut line and his brother Kalen. Thanks to the PAT, Kalen stays above as well. CUT LINE: 111.94
9:45 pm - The scoring is fast and furious this half. Willboski and Waste Management now appear safe as Garcia is having a good game. EZticketsearch_com is hanging on to the cut line right now. Chad S has officially lost one of his teams. We still have a quarter to go, so the Williams and Smith owners should still have hope. CUT LINE: 112.14
9:52 pm - I can hear it own. Anchor Crankers, Rock Ur World, Stone Cold Bears, Kiljoys2, and Orange Juice owners are screaming that Johnathan Stewart is in at the goal line again. He gets his 2nd td of the game robbing Williams owners of 6 valuable points. Carolina owners can now hope for some sacks and a turnover as TB will most likely be throwing. My childhood friend Kalen could use another score out of Kasay as he is now just above the cut. A field goal would be best because a few Williams owners can pass him as well. CUT LINE: 112.94
10:06 pm - Can you say "Slaton-esque?". D'Angelo Williams rips off 57 yards and a TD on just 2 carries. All the teams mentioned above are jumping for joy. Cali-ballers have made a huge comeback with Antonio Bryant tonight and will be thankful that Tampa will be forced to throw the ball now as he needs a few more to get over the cut. The cut line made a huge jump to 115.8 which is bad for Kalen and Gentan. Probably worse for Gentan as Steve Smith probably won't see any more balls thrown to him. Kalen can still get a late FG from Kasay.
10:12 - The next group of teams to wait out the Williams/Bryant/Kasay saga are OKC Express, Pimpin Hooters, Black Jack and Unlucky Bass Turds. All are out of players and have seen the cut line jump up to within a point of their score.
10:17 - Boomers Bombers gets a big sack out of their D to bump out OKC Express for the last spot. OKC needs TB to put more points on the board to have a chance. However, Gentan is right behind him needing only 13 more yards to move ahead of OKC. Tampa ball with 5 minutes to go. CUT LINE: 116.28
10:25 pm - In what is now the best catch in FFOC history, Antonio Bryant gets a kiss from his Cali-Ballers owner Jeffrey V as the one handed, fully extended TD catch puts him safely over the cut line. Cali came into tonight needing a miracle will once again be an underdog next week as he is ranked 139 out of 141 going into this week. Tough luck for Boomer's, as not only does Cali pass him, but the points allowed for carolina drops him below a few other teams. I might get the OT finish I predicted earlier! Pimpin Hooters and Black Jack have also been eliminated.
10:35 pm - I just can't keep up anymore. I need a wireless lap top and a personal assistant. D'Angelo Williams is even more Steve Slaton-esque as he scampers for a 36 yd score. This all but eliminates Gentan and Kalen. The TD also moved Who Ha and DevilDogs into the top 57, knocking out Hedgehogs and Unlucky Bass Turds. Hedgehogs is one of Rick's 3 teams which I thought would make it. Now he's only down to 1 team and Chad S is on the edge of losing a second team as well. CUT LINE: 118.5 (Cin-city-Ballers)
Final Wrap up: Carolina tacked on a sack at the end and could of had another INT, but neither factored in the final cut. However the late heroics by D'Angelo Williams and Antonio Bryant made very happy owners in Jeffrey (Cali-Ballers), Doug M (Big Cheese), Dwain(Who Ha), David M (MarissChris3) and Timothy H (Devildogs). Two other second half beneficiaries were David S (skowman) and Jeremy S (Junk Yard Dog) who had Steve Smith.
D'Angelo Williams helped Timothy get both of his teams in. Donald and Rick also got 2 teams to the final 57. Rick T lost 2 of his 3, Jarred lost both of his, and Dwain snuck one team in just above the cut thanks to DA. Mad props to the 3 owners who have 2 teams in the final 57! It's hard enough to get one team there, much less two. They are in the top 99 percentile of the league as we had over 6600 teams. I don't care how many teams they bought..this is still a great accomplishment!
Last but not least, the Vegas bracket said goodbye to some friends of the blog. Kalen (EZticketsearch_com), Gentan (Broadway G), Zebb (Pandruggles) and Ryan C (Reece's Team). Also to Todd M(One Purple Chair), who I just realized today was another Wisconsin resident who was still alive (along with Rick). Sorry I missed you earlier Todd. Enjoy the snow we're getting! Good effort guys! Next week my focus will shift more toward Rick T, Donald T, Chad S, William R, and Korey G. On a side note, I tried out Korey's rotoplay.com contest this week hoping to win a free entry to next years FFOC, but I think I came up short due to the big games by Garcia, Williams and Smith. I was in 15th place coming into tonight with Warrick Dunn still to play. Dunn was effective but didn't get many touches. I encourage you all to play his contest one week if you want something to cheer for in the games to come.
I need a drink. The second half was too wild and crazy to keep up with. I'm sure I missed some teams highs and lows, so share them with me if I left you out. If I'm around next Monday, I'll do another live game blog to update the most important elimination week in fantasy football history! Next week the final 15 Vegas participants will be decided! If I have time, I'll go thru all the rosters and see who some key players may be. This week, the two teams that had Antonio Bryant and the 3-5 who had Jeff Garcia made out big.
Be sure to spread the word about the FFOC so we can keep this contest going and get enough participants to keep the high payouts each and every year! Great job Stan, Seth and fanball.com!
8:06 cdt and Matt Bryant clanks a 40 yd fg off the upright. Not good news for Truthseekers and Carolina Cowboys who needed a solid game out of him. It's good news for those with the Carolina defense as the shutout is still alive. CUT LINE: 109.02
8:37 pm - Bryant gets back the 2 pts he lost and one extra as the score is 3-3 with 6 minutes left. Both teams are moving the ball, but not many fantasy points are being scored. One of the underdogs coming into the week...Willboski....could have used a TD pass by Garcia there. He's now above the cut line, but could use some breathing room in case Garcia gets hurt or turns into Tony Picks-throw. CUT LINE: 109.06
8:47 pm: Carolina runs the ball right down Tampa's throat highlighted by a 40 yd run by D'Angelo Williams which pushed the cut line up a few points. The owners who need a monster night out of Williams are disappointed that Stewart got the goal line carry for the touchdown. Kalen and Zebb each get another point from Kasay to put them right at the cut line of 110.52
8:57: Halftime...Carolina gets a few sacks to give Boomers Big Bad Bombers a slight cushion above the cut line. CUT LINE: 110.52
HALF TIME NOTES: It's been a quiet half for Steve Smith (31 yds), but he seems to be getting open with regularity. Look for him to have a big second half, but not enough for my friend Gentan (BroadwayG) to make the cut. His brother Kalen is in more trouble than I thought. Currently above the cut line with John Kasay playing, there are 7-10 teams within 6 points of him with D'Angelo Williams playing. Chad still has all 3 of his Cocktails and Dreams teams above the cut line, but it won't take long for number 15 to be eliminated. The other two teams appear safe.
9:15 pm - Typical over-coaching in the NFL shows true again. For the second series in a row, Carolina runs the ball down Tampa's throat and suddenly Carolina out thinks themselves and tries passing. An INT for Delhomme wipes away Ryan C's (Reece's Team) hopes. CUT LINE: 111.4
9:19 pm - Before I can finish typing one post, Garcia under throws a wide open Antonio Bryant, but Bryant makes a nice play and gets into the endzone. My man William (Willboski) is now safely above the cut line at 120 pts. Team dat needs money inches closer to the cut line with the M.Bryant PAT. This could be good news for Steve Smith owners. CUT LINE: 111.32
9:26 pm - WOW! It's like I had a bug in Jake Delhomme's ear. Suddenly Steve Smith owners are happier now that he gets a 38 yard TD. I'm sure some of the owners are complaining that it wasn't 40 so they could get the 2 bonus points. The best news is right after I count Gentan out, he comes out of nowhere and is now ahead of both the cut line and his brother Kalen. Thanks to the PAT, Kalen stays above as well. CUT LINE: 111.94
9:45 pm - The scoring is fast and furious this half. Willboski and Waste Management now appear safe as Garcia is having a good game. EZticketsearch_com is hanging on to the cut line right now. Chad S has officially lost one of his teams. We still have a quarter to go, so the Williams and Smith owners should still have hope. CUT LINE: 112.14
9:52 pm - I can hear it own. Anchor Crankers, Rock Ur World, Stone Cold Bears, Kiljoys2, and Orange Juice owners are screaming that Johnathan Stewart is in at the goal line again. He gets his 2nd td of the game robbing Williams owners of 6 valuable points. Carolina owners can now hope for some sacks and a turnover as TB will most likely be throwing. My childhood friend Kalen could use another score out of Kasay as he is now just above the cut. A field goal would be best because a few Williams owners can pass him as well. CUT LINE: 112.94
10:06 pm - Can you say "Slaton-esque?". D'Angelo Williams rips off 57 yards and a TD on just 2 carries. All the teams mentioned above are jumping for joy. Cali-ballers have made a huge comeback with Antonio Bryant tonight and will be thankful that Tampa will be forced to throw the ball now as he needs a few more to get over the cut. The cut line made a huge jump to 115.8 which is bad for Kalen and Gentan. Probably worse for Gentan as Steve Smith probably won't see any more balls thrown to him. Kalen can still get a late FG from Kasay.
10:12 - The next group of teams to wait out the Williams/Bryant/Kasay saga are OKC Express, Pimpin Hooters, Black Jack and Unlucky Bass Turds. All are out of players and have seen the cut line jump up to within a point of their score.
10:17 - Boomers Bombers gets a big sack out of their D to bump out OKC Express for the last spot. OKC needs TB to put more points on the board to have a chance. However, Gentan is right behind him needing only 13 more yards to move ahead of OKC. Tampa ball with 5 minutes to go. CUT LINE: 116.28
10:25 pm - In what is now the best catch in FFOC history, Antonio Bryant gets a kiss from his Cali-Ballers owner Jeffrey V as the one handed, fully extended TD catch puts him safely over the cut line. Cali came into tonight needing a miracle will once again be an underdog next week as he is ranked 139 out of 141 going into this week. Tough luck for Boomer's, as not only does Cali pass him, but the points allowed for carolina drops him below a few other teams. I might get the OT finish I predicted earlier! Pimpin Hooters and Black Jack have also been eliminated.
10:35 pm - I just can't keep up anymore. I need a wireless lap top and a personal assistant. D'Angelo Williams is even more Steve Slaton-esque as he scampers for a 36 yd score. This all but eliminates Gentan and Kalen. The TD also moved Who Ha and DevilDogs into the top 57, knocking out Hedgehogs and Unlucky Bass Turds. Hedgehogs is one of Rick's 3 teams which I thought would make it. Now he's only down to 1 team and Chad S is on the edge of losing a second team as well. CUT LINE: 118.5 (Cin-city-Ballers)
Final Wrap up: Carolina tacked on a sack at the end and could of had another INT, but neither factored in the final cut. However the late heroics by D'Angelo Williams and Antonio Bryant made very happy owners in Jeffrey (Cali-Ballers), Doug M (Big Cheese), Dwain(Who Ha), David M (MarissChris3) and Timothy H (Devildogs). Two other second half beneficiaries were David S (skowman) and Jeremy S (Junk Yard Dog) who had Steve Smith.
D'Angelo Williams helped Timothy get both of his teams in. Donald and Rick also got 2 teams to the final 57. Rick T lost 2 of his 3, Jarred lost both of his, and Dwain snuck one team in just above the cut thanks to DA. Mad props to the 3 owners who have 2 teams in the final 57! It's hard enough to get one team there, much less two. They are in the top 99 percentile of the league as we had over 6600 teams. I don't care how many teams they bought..this is still a great accomplishment!
Last but not least, the Vegas bracket said goodbye to some friends of the blog. Kalen (EZticketsearch_com), Gentan (Broadway G), Zebb (Pandruggles) and Ryan C (Reece's Team). Also to Todd M(One Purple Chair), who I just realized today was another Wisconsin resident who was still alive (along with Rick). Sorry I missed you earlier Todd. Enjoy the snow we're getting! Good effort guys! Next week my focus will shift more toward Rick T, Donald T, Chad S, William R, and Korey G. On a side note, I tried out Korey's rotoplay.com contest this week hoping to win a free entry to next years FFOC, but I think I came up short due to the big games by Garcia, Williams and Smith. I was in 15th place coming into tonight with Warrick Dunn still to play. Dunn was effective but didn't get many touches. I encourage you all to play his contest one week if you want something to cheer for in the games to come.
I need a drink. The second half was too wild and crazy to keep up with. I'm sure I missed some teams highs and lows, so share them with me if I left you out. If I'm around next Monday, I'll do another live game blog to update the most important elimination week in fantasy football history! Next week the final 15 Vegas participants will be decided! If I have time, I'll go thru all the rosters and see who some key players may be. This week, the two teams that had Antonio Bryant and the 3-5 who had Jeff Garcia made out big.
Be sure to spread the word about the FFOC so we can keep this contest going and get enough participants to keep the high payouts each and every year! Great job Stan, Seth and fanball.com!
Monday night excitement
We're a little more than an hour away from kickoff and there are probably 50-60 owners who have anxiously awaited this game all day. Weighing various scenarios through their minds. "How effective will Williams be against the tough Tampa D?" "Will Steve Smith have another big game against the cover 2?" "Does Garcia have a chance to put up 30 points for me?"
Coming into the game, the Vegas bracket cut line sits at 108.24. There are a number of people less than 5 points above the cut line with nobody playing tonight who are hoping for some sort of miracle to stay above the line. There are some people who are just below the line, but confident that Smith, Williams or Kasay will get them the points they need to move on to the final 57. With not many active players, I don't see the cut line moving much higher than 115. Since one of my friends is just below the cut line, we both did some research on the remaining teams.....
- 10 teams are less than 5 pts above the cut line with nobody left to play
- of the teams within 10 of the cut line with one player remaining, the breakdown is as follows:
- 7 have D'Angelo Williams
- 4 have John Kasay
- 2 have Matt Bryant
- 1 has Steve Smith
- 1 has Jeff Garcia
- There are 4 teams with multiple players left who can make a late run:
- 96.1 pts with Garcia and Williams (Waste Management)
- 95.54 pts with Williams and TB (Rock UR World)
- 94.64 pts with Kasay and TB (Eager Beavers)
- 71.66 pts with Delhomee, Smith and Car (Leopards)
- There are 2 teams slightly above the cut with Carolina, so a negative week out of them could drop them below
- One team just above the cut has Matt Bryant, so they can easily fall below the cut line with a missed FG or only a few PATs
It appears that D'Angelo Williams will be the main factor in determining the final 57 who have a shot at a million dollars. I predict he will have 7.4 points...58 yds rush, 16 yds rec, no TD If you have D'Angelo, don't let my prediction scare you, as my busts and break out picks didn't fare so well this week.
There are 6 owners who had multiple teams left in the round of 141, here is how they are sitting:
Chad S. - one team will be eliminated and two teams are looking good, but not great (119.2 and 122.12 with no players left)
Donald T. - one team will be eliminated and the other two are almost guaranteed to get in, unless Tampa scores 40+ points. One team has 120 with S.Smith. other has 125 with Carolina DST
Rick T - One team is in. One team is out. Third team is at 118 with no players, so like Chad's teams...good chance to move on, but he'll still want to keep an eye on tonights game.
Jared D - Looks like both his teams will be eliminated. One has 86 pts and tampa DST. Other team has 83.86 and D'Angelo Williams
Timothy H - one is most likely done and the other has a 40% chance to make it. Both of his teams have D'Angelo Williams left with 89.06 and 99.38 points going into tonight.
Dwain M - both teams look toast. One has 88 with DAngelo Williams left to play and the other is done with 111.94 points. He has to hope that if someone has a big game tonight, it's DA and not Smith or Kasay.
Good luck to those watching the live scoring to see if they make the cut. Especially to Kalen and Gentan who need John Kasay and Steve Smith to do well.
I will try to do a semi-live game blog to update the happenings as big plays occur.
Coming into the game, the Vegas bracket cut line sits at 108.24. There are a number of people less than 5 points above the cut line with nobody playing tonight who are hoping for some sort of miracle to stay above the line. There are some people who are just below the line, but confident that Smith, Williams or Kasay will get them the points they need to move on to the final 57. With not many active players, I don't see the cut line moving much higher than 115. Since one of my friends is just below the cut line, we both did some research on the remaining teams.....
- 10 teams are less than 5 pts above the cut line with nobody left to play
- of the teams within 10 of the cut line with one player remaining, the breakdown is as follows:
- 7 have D'Angelo Williams
- 4 have John Kasay
- 2 have Matt Bryant
- 1 has Steve Smith
- 1 has Jeff Garcia
- There are 4 teams with multiple players left who can make a late run:
- 96.1 pts with Garcia and Williams (Waste Management)
- 95.54 pts with Williams and TB (Rock UR World)
- 94.64 pts with Kasay and TB (Eager Beavers)
- 71.66 pts with Delhomee, Smith and Car (Leopards)
- There are 2 teams slightly above the cut with Carolina, so a negative week out of them could drop them below
- One team just above the cut has Matt Bryant, so they can easily fall below the cut line with a missed FG or only a few PATs
It appears that D'Angelo Williams will be the main factor in determining the final 57 who have a shot at a million dollars. I predict he will have 7.4 points...58 yds rush, 16 yds rec, no TD If you have D'Angelo, don't let my prediction scare you, as my busts and break out picks didn't fare so well this week.
There are 6 owners who had multiple teams left in the round of 141, here is how they are sitting:
Chad S. - one team will be eliminated and two teams are looking good, but not great (119.2 and 122.12 with no players left)
Donald T. - one team will be eliminated and the other two are almost guaranteed to get in, unless Tampa scores 40+ points. One team has 120 with S.Smith. other has 125 with Carolina DST
Rick T - One team is in. One team is out. Third team is at 118 with no players, so like Chad's teams...good chance to move on, but he'll still want to keep an eye on tonights game.
Jared D - Looks like both his teams will be eliminated. One has 86 pts and tampa DST. Other team has 83.86 and D'Angelo Williams
Timothy H - one is most likely done and the other has a 40% chance to make it. Both of his teams have D'Angelo Williams left with 89.06 and 99.38 points going into tonight.
Dwain M - both teams look toast. One has 88 with DAngelo Williams left to play and the other is done with 111.94 points. He has to hope that if someone has a big game tonight, it's DA and not Smith or Kasay.
Good luck to those watching the live scoring to see if they make the cut. Especially to Kalen and Gentan who need John Kasay and Steve Smith to do well.
I will try to do a semi-live game blog to update the happenings as big plays occur.
Wednesday, December 3
week 14 predictions
I've slacked the past week or two because of the holidays, but my Break out and Bust down post is back for this week.
Players I think will break out:
QB - Ben Roethlisberger - I still think Dallas has a poor defense and with an injured DeMarcus Ware, Ben should have all day to find wide open receivers. I don't care how bad the weather is or that Adam Jones is back, Big Ben should equal Big Points this week as his stat sheet will be raining with 300+ yds and at least 2 td's.
RB - La Danian Tomlinson - Historically shreds the Raiders for both a lot of yards and a lot of TD's. This week will give owners at least some satisfaction of using a high pick on him. Similar to Westbrook's big week last week. While Al Davis is saying "Just Win Baby", LT will be saying "Just Scored Again Baby".
RB - Kevin Smith - With the Williams Wall on suspension for water pills, look for some big holes. The past 4 weeks, Smith has been given plenty of touches and has produced. Look for Detroit to run all over Minnesota (and vice versa). There could be 400+ yds rushing for both teams in this game.
WR - Randy Moss - The weak Seattle secondary will get exposed yet again. The offense will look to rebound in a strong way after being humbled by Pittsburgh last week. If you don't know Marcus Trufant's number, you'll get to see it plenty on Sunday as he chases down Randy Moss.
WR - Laverneous Coles - Besides last week, the niners have been pretty solid against the run (under 4 yds per carry). Both Coles and Favre were shut down last week, so look for the Jets to get C-O-L-E-S COLES! COLES! COLES! involved early and often.
TE - Owen Daniels - His numbers suffered under Sage Rosenfels. Schaub is back and the Packer linebackers haven't been good at covering TE's this year. With bad weather in the forecast, a shorter passing game will be needed on Sunday for the Texans.
K - Jason Elam - like receivers, kickers are always a crap shoot. This time of year, you go for kickers in domes or on the west coast. The Saints/Falcons game should be high scoring and the lack of red zone passing for Atlanta should lead to FG's.
Projected Busts for week 14:
QB - Tony Romo - nobody has had success passing against Pittsburgh. Combine their strong pass rush with a below average offensive line, and Romo will be hoping to leave this game with nothing more than a broken pinkie.
RB - Steve Slaton - He won't be as fast on the tundra. He's had a short recovery week. And the Packers should have an early lead which will force Houston to throw more. If he does anything this week, it will be with receiving yards.
RB - Marshawn Lynch - Had a nice 8.4 yds per carry last week, but not this week. With a hurting qb, Miami should concentrate on stopping the run because Buffalo won't be able to score thru the air.
WR - Steve Smith - The vaunted cover 2 defense of Tampa Bay prevents the big plays. Smith did go for 112 yds against them in Tampa this year, but I just have a gut feeling that he'll be shut down this week.
WR - Andre Johnson - Maybe I'm just a homer, but I see a blowout in Green Bay this week. The Packer corners have been good despite the lack of a pass rush. They get beat on the ground and covering tight ends. With the short work week for Houston and a desperate Green Bay team, look for a rout and very little stats for the Texan players.
TE - Dallas Clark - It's about time for Indy's offense to explode and Cincy could be just what the doctor ordered. However, I see Addai and Wayne as the major benefactors. A big lead early could mean very little second half passing. DC will be the forgotten man this week.
That's my feelings for this week. I've usually been good with my sleeper picks. I have had a few bust picks have big games in the past. Good luck and if my predictions help you win this week, come back and give me a high 5. If you take my advice and bench andre johnson and he scores 25 points...I'll give you my picks for the rest of the year for free.
Players I think will break out:
QB - Ben Roethlisberger - I still think Dallas has a poor defense and with an injured DeMarcus Ware, Ben should have all day to find wide open receivers. I don't care how bad the weather is or that Adam Jones is back, Big Ben should equal Big Points this week as his stat sheet will be raining with 300+ yds and at least 2 td's.
RB - La Danian Tomlinson - Historically shreds the Raiders for both a lot of yards and a lot of TD's. This week will give owners at least some satisfaction of using a high pick on him. Similar to Westbrook's big week last week. While Al Davis is saying "Just Win Baby", LT will be saying "Just Scored Again Baby".
RB - Kevin Smith - With the Williams Wall on suspension for water pills, look for some big holes. The past 4 weeks, Smith has been given plenty of touches and has produced. Look for Detroit to run all over Minnesota (and vice versa). There could be 400+ yds rushing for both teams in this game.
WR - Randy Moss - The weak Seattle secondary will get exposed yet again. The offense will look to rebound in a strong way after being humbled by Pittsburgh last week. If you don't know Marcus Trufant's number, you'll get to see it plenty on Sunday as he chases down Randy Moss.
WR - Laverneous Coles - Besides last week, the niners have been pretty solid against the run (under 4 yds per carry). Both Coles and Favre were shut down last week, so look for the Jets to get C-O-L-E-S COLES! COLES! COLES! involved early and often.
TE - Owen Daniels - His numbers suffered under Sage Rosenfels. Schaub is back and the Packer linebackers haven't been good at covering TE's this year. With bad weather in the forecast, a shorter passing game will be needed on Sunday for the Texans.
K - Jason Elam - like receivers, kickers are always a crap shoot. This time of year, you go for kickers in domes or on the west coast. The Saints/Falcons game should be high scoring and the lack of red zone passing for Atlanta should lead to FG's.
Projected Busts for week 14:
QB - Tony Romo - nobody has had success passing against Pittsburgh. Combine their strong pass rush with a below average offensive line, and Romo will be hoping to leave this game with nothing more than a broken pinkie.
RB - Steve Slaton - He won't be as fast on the tundra. He's had a short recovery week. And the Packers should have an early lead which will force Houston to throw more. If he does anything this week, it will be with receiving yards.
RB - Marshawn Lynch - Had a nice 8.4 yds per carry last week, but not this week. With a hurting qb, Miami should concentrate on stopping the run because Buffalo won't be able to score thru the air.
WR - Steve Smith - The vaunted cover 2 defense of Tampa Bay prevents the big plays. Smith did go for 112 yds against them in Tampa this year, but I just have a gut feeling that he'll be shut down this week.
WR - Andre Johnson - Maybe I'm just a homer, but I see a blowout in Green Bay this week. The Packer corners have been good despite the lack of a pass rush. They get beat on the ground and covering tight ends. With the short work week for Houston and a desperate Green Bay team, look for a rout and very little stats for the Texan players.
TE - Dallas Clark - It's about time for Indy's offense to explode and Cincy could be just what the doctor ordered. However, I see Addai and Wayne as the major benefactors. A big lead early could mean very little second half passing. DC will be the forgotten man this week.
That's my feelings for this week. I've usually been good with my sleeper picks. I have had a few bust picks have big games in the past. Good luck and if my predictions help you win this week, come back and give me a high 5. If you take my advice and bench andre johnson and he scores 25 points...I'll give you my picks for the rest of the year for free.
Tuesday, December 2
week 13
Another exciting Monday night finish and another week full of joy and heartbreak. They say baseball is a game of inches, but once again, it was the FFOC Las Vegas eliminator bracket which came down to a matter of inches.
In a weekend where everyone should be thankful, three teams were really thankful. New York Bretts, Dexter3, and J-E-T-S!!!! came inches away from missing the cut when Rob Bironas' 43 yd field goal in the 4th quarter on Thursday hit the upright and went in. Had the kick been an inch to the right, it probably would have bounced out, giving them 6 less points this week.
Being a Packer fan, most of my focus on Sunday was on their game. A play in the 4th quarter turned out big for 6 owners. Jake Delhomme connected with Steve Smith on a long pass and he was ruled to be tackled inside the 1 yard line. Both live and on the replay, I swear that he landed on the defender and by the time his right shoulder hit the ground, the ball was across the plain of the goal line. Carolina never challenged the play and D'Angelo Williams ran it in the next play making Williams owners happy and Delhomme and Smith owners upset. Had they reviewed the play and ruled that Smith got in, then Cheddarheads, The Titans, and D&K Giants all would have advanced to week 14 and Jacked and Tan, MarissChris3, and DTC XII would have been playing the woulda coulda shoulda game while in the 1st and goal bracket. I'm sure there were numerous other plays which were big points swings that I didn't see. I read in the forum that Wayne dropped a TD pass from Manning in the Colt game.
The number 1 seed in the Vegas bracket, Datsyooks, sneaked in by less than 2 points thanks to a solid night by Kris Brown. Although he hung on, 3 of the top 25 Vegas bracket teams did not make it through to week 14. Other Monday night winners (mainly Slaton owners) were www.peedpot.com, pimpin' hooters (I love to pimp Hooters), and skowman. I'm sure the owner of Florida is a few pounds lighter today if he was watching the live scoring last night as he ended up right on the cut line and had no players in last night's game. A simple 8 yard run or pass could have allowed someone to leap frog him and end his chance at a million dollars. Instead he lives to see another week...probably. Now he gets to sweat out the weekly stat changes by Elias. Since the scores are so close, a simple 4 yard change could make a big difference.
Now that it's getting down to the final weeks, I will be tracking owners with multiple teams left. I know of 4 for sure and I'll look closer at another time to see if there are any others. Three owners have 3 of the 141 teams still alive. Donald T, Chad S and Rick T all have the best odds of going to Vegas. Jarred D has 2 teams alive. Rick T is the only Wisconsin owner left, so I'll definitely be rooting on his teams. Along with Rick, my main allegiance will go to two childhood friends who I haven't seen in decades. Due to their unique names, I recognized them and have confirmed their identity. Gentan S. and Kalen S. could be the only brother tandem to both make it to Vegas. What a fun trip that would be if they both made it!
Congratulations to the 141 teams still alive. Nice run to those of you who were knocked out this week. On a side note, currently there is a 42 point difference between the first place team in the Vegas bracket and the last (141st) place team, just to give people an idea of how many points may need to be made up in Vegas to win it all.
In a weekend where everyone should be thankful, three teams were really thankful. New York Bretts, Dexter3, and J-E-T-S!!!! came inches away from missing the cut when Rob Bironas' 43 yd field goal in the 4th quarter on Thursday hit the upright and went in. Had the kick been an inch to the right, it probably would have bounced out, giving them 6 less points this week.
Being a Packer fan, most of my focus on Sunday was on their game. A play in the 4th quarter turned out big for 6 owners. Jake Delhomme connected with Steve Smith on a long pass and he was ruled to be tackled inside the 1 yard line. Both live and on the replay, I swear that he landed on the defender and by the time his right shoulder hit the ground, the ball was across the plain of the goal line. Carolina never challenged the play and D'Angelo Williams ran it in the next play making Williams owners happy and Delhomme and Smith owners upset. Had they reviewed the play and ruled that Smith got in, then Cheddarheads, The Titans, and D&K Giants all would have advanced to week 14 and Jacked and Tan, MarissChris3, and DTC XII would have been playing the woulda coulda shoulda game while in the 1st and goal bracket. I'm sure there were numerous other plays which were big points swings that I didn't see. I read in the forum that Wayne dropped a TD pass from Manning in the Colt game.
The number 1 seed in the Vegas bracket, Datsyooks, sneaked in by less than 2 points thanks to a solid night by Kris Brown. Although he hung on, 3 of the top 25 Vegas bracket teams did not make it through to week 14. Other Monday night winners (mainly Slaton owners) were www.peedpot.com, pimpin' hooters (I love to pimp Hooters), and skowman. I'm sure the owner of Florida is a few pounds lighter today if he was watching the live scoring last night as he ended up right on the cut line and had no players in last night's game. A simple 8 yard run or pass could have allowed someone to leap frog him and end his chance at a million dollars. Instead he lives to see another week...probably. Now he gets to sweat out the weekly stat changes by Elias. Since the scores are so close, a simple 4 yard change could make a big difference.
Now that it's getting down to the final weeks, I will be tracking owners with multiple teams left. I know of 4 for sure and I'll look closer at another time to see if there are any others. Three owners have 3 of the 141 teams still alive. Donald T, Chad S and Rick T all have the best odds of going to Vegas. Jarred D has 2 teams alive. Rick T is the only Wisconsin owner left, so I'll definitely be rooting on his teams. Along with Rick, my main allegiance will go to two childhood friends who I haven't seen in decades. Due to their unique names, I recognized them and have confirmed their identity. Gentan S. and Kalen S. could be the only brother tandem to both make it to Vegas. What a fun trip that would be if they both made it!
Congratulations to the 141 teams still alive. Nice run to those of you who were knocked out this week. On a side note, currently there is a 42 point difference between the first place team in the Vegas bracket and the last (141st) place team, just to give people an idea of how many points may need to be made up in Vegas to win it all.
Monday, December 1
141
I'm sure last night was a sleepless night for some people. Week 13 is the first week, where you truly need a very good week in order to stay alive for the million dollar grand prize. The field will be cut from 281 down to 141 this week. As the field thins, certain players will be on a majority of the teams rosters.
This week, the big scores were by D'Angelo Williams, Thomas Jones, Chris Johnson, Jay Cutler, and Brian Westbrook. If you didn't have one of these players, I'm pretty sure you didn't make the cut.
With one game to play, it brings up an age old question. Would you rather be above the cut line with no players and needing 30 teams to pass you tonight to get cut? Or would you rather be 10-20 points below the cut line with Slaton and A.Johnson playing? In head to head matches, I always prefer to be the one done and in the lead and make the other guys player(s) beat me Monday night. I probably take the same stance in the FFOC with it's elimination rounds. Either way, the owners hovering within 15 points of the cut line will be watching the live scoring very closely tonight.
Some people say they don't like the week by week elimination rounds because the best teams probably won't make it to Vegas. I think that's the great feature of this format. No matter if you were the high point getter in week 13 or the 141st place finisher, you still have an equal shot to advance past week 14. It gives every owner equal hope going into each week. If you went into the week knowing that you had to make up 20 points on 40 different teams, then you may not be as excited than if everyone started at 0 to start the week.
I took a general glance at owners with multiple teams. I see a fellow Wisconsinite, just 10 minutes south of me, Rick T, has 3 teams safely above the cut line. I will now take interest in his teams and follow them closely starting next week. I've been following Chad S, who started with 10 teams in the Vegas bracket and had 5 or 6 coming into this week. He has one team that is currently above the cut line, but looks like it won't make it as it has no more players. He has 3 other teams, that are currently below the cut with Kris Brown and 1 or two other big time players going (A.Johnson, Slaton and/or MJD). He is definitely rooting for a high scoring game with a lot of Houston FG's.
Rick appears to be the only Wisconsin owner who will advance to week 14. I also noticed two unique names from IL, who I think are childhood friends of mine who I haven't seen or talked to in over 10 years. Gentan and Kalen....if you are the Schulties brothers, give me a shout out. It would be fun to catch up with you. If not, then screw you FIBS! lol...j/k
Good luck to all, and to all a good night.
This week, the big scores were by D'Angelo Williams, Thomas Jones, Chris Johnson, Jay Cutler, and Brian Westbrook. If you didn't have one of these players, I'm pretty sure you didn't make the cut.
With one game to play, it brings up an age old question. Would you rather be above the cut line with no players and needing 30 teams to pass you tonight to get cut? Or would you rather be 10-20 points below the cut line with Slaton and A.Johnson playing? In head to head matches, I always prefer to be the one done and in the lead and make the other guys player(s) beat me Monday night. I probably take the same stance in the FFOC with it's elimination rounds. Either way, the owners hovering within 15 points of the cut line will be watching the live scoring very closely tonight.
Some people say they don't like the week by week elimination rounds because the best teams probably won't make it to Vegas. I think that's the great feature of this format. No matter if you were the high point getter in week 13 or the 141st place finisher, you still have an equal shot to advance past week 14. It gives every owner equal hope going into each week. If you went into the week knowing that you had to make up 20 points on 40 different teams, then you may not be as excited than if everyone started at 0 to start the week.
I took a general glance at owners with multiple teams. I see a fellow Wisconsinite, just 10 minutes south of me, Rick T, has 3 teams safely above the cut line. I will now take interest in his teams and follow them closely starting next week. I've been following Chad S, who started with 10 teams in the Vegas bracket and had 5 or 6 coming into this week. He has one team that is currently above the cut line, but looks like it won't make it as it has no more players. He has 3 other teams, that are currently below the cut with Kris Brown and 1 or two other big time players going (A.Johnson, Slaton and/or MJD). He is definitely rooting for a high scoring game with a lot of Houston FG's.
Rick appears to be the only Wisconsin owner who will advance to week 14. I also noticed two unique names from IL, who I think are childhood friends of mine who I haven't seen or talked to in over 10 years. Gentan and Kalen....if you are the Schulties brothers, give me a shout out. It would be fun to catch up with you. If not, then screw you FIBS! lol...j/k
Good luck to all, and to all a good night.
Tuesday, November 25
week 12
The second week of the LasVegas Bracket was not quite as dramatic as week 11. However, the teams scored the most points for a given week in NFL history, and the FFOC scores reflected this. The main contributors were Michael Turner, Matt Cassell, Randy Moss and Drew Brees who all scored over 30 points this week. The biggest disappointment had to be Donovan McNabb who was benched at half time after scoring only .8 points for his owners.
Many owners had players playing Monday night as evidence from the cut line. It moved almost 20 points from 91 to 108.92 just from the monday night game. Although many benefited from good games by Brees, Rodgers, L.Moore and Jennings, some people who were comfortably sitting at 110+ before the game ended up missing the cut. I bet there are a few owners who still haven't realized they missed the cut and are telling their friends they have a 1:281 chance to become a millionaire.
Why is that? Because 7 teams who just missed the cut had the Packers defense and the -7 points they brought to the table. If I were almost 30 points above the cut line with only 1 game to go and my defense yet to play, I'd wouldn't be worried about the cut line either. However, one beauty of this game, giving negative points for poor defensive performances, cost these owners a chance to stay alive. GoFavreYourself was probably the most upset of these owners as he/she missed the cut by 2.16 despite having Michael Turner and Matt Cassell in his/her lineup. Looks like they got Favred.
B Dawgz faced similar fate as they missed the cut by 4 and had the Arizona defense who scored -6. The "Forgot to stay on top of things" award goes to Surfside Scooters who started Brandon Jacobs (having Chester Taylor on the bench) and missed the cut by 2.8 points. The Giants have led to the award winner both weeks, as owners who started Carney last week and missed the cut were hit with this dubious honor.
On another note, Chad S. had 4 of his 8 Cocktails and Dreams teams advance. Donald T apparently also has multiple teams still alive, but I'm not aware of his team names. Major props to both of you!
Week 13 is going to be the first true test as only the top 50% (141) will advance. Add that to the fact there are 3 Thursday games, and you have an interesting week. Many owners will have to endure a long wait if they have a majority of their team playing early this week. While owners who don't have anyone playing, will be rooting for low scoring games and will be watching to see the point totals put up.
Two weeks down, three to go til Vegas! Good luck to all who are left.
Many owners had players playing Monday night as evidence from the cut line. It moved almost 20 points from 91 to 108.92 just from the monday night game. Although many benefited from good games by Brees, Rodgers, L.Moore and Jennings, some people who were comfortably sitting at 110+ before the game ended up missing the cut. I bet there are a few owners who still haven't realized they missed the cut and are telling their friends they have a 1:281 chance to become a millionaire.
Why is that? Because 7 teams who just missed the cut had the Packers defense and the -7 points they brought to the table. If I were almost 30 points above the cut line with only 1 game to go and my defense yet to play, I'd wouldn't be worried about the cut line either. However, one beauty of this game, giving negative points for poor defensive performances, cost these owners a chance to stay alive. GoFavreYourself was probably the most upset of these owners as he/she missed the cut by 2.16 despite having Michael Turner and Matt Cassell in his/her lineup. Looks like they got Favred.
B Dawgz faced similar fate as they missed the cut by 4 and had the Arizona defense who scored -6. The "Forgot to stay on top of things" award goes to Surfside Scooters who started Brandon Jacobs (having Chester Taylor on the bench) and missed the cut by 2.8 points. The Giants have led to the award winner both weeks, as owners who started Carney last week and missed the cut were hit with this dubious honor.
On another note, Chad S. had 4 of his 8 Cocktails and Dreams teams advance. Donald T apparently also has multiple teams still alive, but I'm not aware of his team names. Major props to both of you!
Week 13 is going to be the first true test as only the top 50% (141) will advance. Add that to the fact there are 3 Thursday games, and you have an interesting week. Many owners will have to endure a long wait if they have a majority of their team playing early this week. While owners who don't have anyone playing, will be rooting for low scoring games and will be watching to see the point totals put up.
Two weeks down, three to go til Vegas! Good luck to all who are left.
Sunday, November 23
lost luster
It's week 12, and I am now out of the Las Vegas bracket for the first time. It takes some of the excitement out for me, as the next few weeks don't matter a whole lot for my team. Week 16 is the week that counts, as I'll need 180+ points to even have a chance. I think my high this year is around 140, so odds are I will go home with my $250 for winning the league and that's it.
In an attempt to make up ground on people, I'm doing something that I never would have done if I were still in the Las Vegas bracket. I'm starting Trent Edwards over Kurt Warner. This is the week I think Warner will get hurt. Edwards has a good match-up against KC and even though he's been horrible lately, he still has big game potential in my mind. I'm sure Lee Evans wants to erase the memory of his zero catch performance on Monday. The other lineup decision I made this morning was to insert Eddie Royal for Kevin Walter. I planned on keeping Royal out, but after thinking about it, I'm sure that Asomugha will give Marshall a hard time, so Royal may end up being Cutler's main target. He tore up the Raiders in week 1.
Good luck to all in the Vegas bracket!
In an attempt to make up ground on people, I'm doing something that I never would have done if I were still in the Las Vegas bracket. I'm starting Trent Edwards over Kurt Warner. This is the week I think Warner will get hurt. Edwards has a good match-up against KC and even though he's been horrible lately, he still has big game potential in my mind. I'm sure Lee Evans wants to erase the memory of his zero catch performance on Monday. The other lineup decision I made this morning was to insert Eddie Royal for Kevin Walter. I planned on keeping Royal out, but after thinking about it, I'm sure that Asomugha will give Marshall a hard time, so Royal may end up being Cutler's main target. He tore up the Raiders in week 1.
Good luck to all in the Vegas bracket!
Tuesday, November 18
FFOC - made for tv?
Earlier this week, Donald made a post in a FFOC thread saying that he felt fantasy football, and the FFOC in particular, can gain country wide publicity and eventually take off similar to the way texas hold’em did a few years ago. The WSOP main event grew exponentially in both participants and prize money once it hit ESPN's air waves. Could the same thing happen to the FFOC? Poker is boring to watch, yet it was able to translate to tv. Why not fantasy football?
I would definitely argue that “yes, it can”. Why can’t you get good ratings by having a weekly show dedicated to the FFOC? In the summer months, you can televise some drafts. During the season, you can interview owners on why they made certain lineup decisions as well as have your weekly start ‘em/ sit ‘em segments. Then on game day, you can show the live scoring with owner reactions while watching the games.
Some say this is too boring to attract viewers. What exactly is poker? It’s a long, boring game of cards, which involved a lot of thinking. How do they get good tv ratings? Who would watch poker besides poker junkies? I’m sure 4 years ago when ESPN talked about televising poker, all these questions came up and look how good that turned out. There are plenty of ways to edit a fantasy football league in order to get the general public interested in watching it on tv each week. After all, this is the era of reality tv and people will watch anything!
Here are my ideas for making a weekly reality show on the FFOC which can be aired on the NFL network or ESPN2 and I guarantee it’s ratings will be just as good as the WSOP or any other sports reality show that clutters the tv networks.
1> Offer a special FFOC league which costs MORE than the normal league. This league will be the feature league for the show. The draft will be televised. Owners will have weekly “confessionals” as to who they are starting and why. They will need to be accessible to be on camera during the games on Sunday/Monday. It would probably help if the league consisted of people who lived within an hour of each other for filming purposes. It might even help to have all the owners watch the games together. It may be better to charge the same price, but take audition tapes/resumes so you get a league of colorful owners who would make for good television
2> Hire a good looking guy and girl to co-host the show. They obviously should know their football, unlike Tony Kornheiser.
3> In Episode 1, have the co-hosts introduce the basics of fantasy football, the FFOC scoring system, and an introduction to the 10 owners in the feature league. This would also be a good time to plug the FFOC and let viewers know where they can sign up for the contest.
4> Episode 2 will be the draft. I would show the first 2 or 3 rounds in full, and have the co-hosts comment on the picks, especially ones that are off the board. You will also need a way for other owners to comment on the selections by other owners as well as comments on who they plan on taking or who they can’t decide on. You would obviously want to keep this as low budget as possible, so I would have the draft done online as all league drafts are. Put each owner in a separate room with a mic and camera on them, outside the range of other owners. Whether you film them at their homes while they draft, or have a location where you can set the owners up at computers in different rooms. With good editing as well as colorful owners, I think you could make a draft exciting tv. Between the co-hosts comments, the owners comments about other picks, and the owner reactions when they get the player they want or when a player they want gets taken right ahead of them….you could get a very entertaining show, even for the viewer who doesn’t play fantasy football.
5> Episodes 3-11 will be dedicated to each week of the FFOC regular season. The first segment will be clips of the owners making out their lineups and any tough decisions they have. The co-hosts can handicap each match-up and predict who will win. Then the middle segment will be dedicated to the games themselves. Show owner reactions when their players score, get stuffed, get hurt…. The last segment will be the aftermath. Owners saying woulda coulda shoulda. Maybe someone will think they have a million dollar team while another owner is upset they drafted so poorly. The first segment could also include the free agent bidding for the week and reaction to the results.
6> After the 9 week regular season, you’ll have the league championship episode. This episode will be similar to the regular season weeks, only you concentrate on the league’s only match up. Allow owners to talk trash. Have each owner and the co-hosts analyze the match-up and make predictions. It would be great to have both owners in the same room watching all the games to get better reaction and let them feed off each other.
7> Once a league champion is declared, you can have 1 or more episodes following the Las Vegas bracket. Since viewers will be connected with this league winner, you can have his/her reaction each week until they are eliminated. You can combine multiple weeks into one episode for the Vegas bracket results
8> Assuming the feature league champ doesn’t make it to Vegas, you can somehow segway from that owner’s run at a million to the final 15 in Vegas. Whether you dedicate an entire show to the final 15 in Vegas or just show highlights and the trophy ceremony as part of the final episode depends on how much you want to hype the FFOC.
Because so many people play fantasy football around the country, I definitely think an FFOC reality show could work. I’m not a producer and don’t deal with ratings, but you would have to think that ESPN2 would get more interest in this than showing the WSOP final episode for the 20th time or drag racing.
The show itself would work. The hardest part would be determining the league to follow. I think you have to take applications for the feature league starting in May. The owners must agree to be televised and available each week to watch the games and get filmed doing so. It would help if the owners lived in the same general area, but I suppose it could work if you had a separate camera crew in each owner’s home, but that would probably be more costly.
Another option would be to have a former NFL great analyze the match-ups each week and offer advice to owners as to who they think should start. Once again, this could add to the cost, but it may also add viewers who want to see Jerry Rice, John Elway, and other former greats.
Stan and Seth…I know you just wanted to make it through the first season and the most important thing is to have the software working as well as possible so the contest is a success. However, the next step would be to pitch this reality show to ESPN and/or the NFL Network as a form of advertising for your contest. With the right owners, I think this could be a good ratings show. It will never turn into American Idol, but I think you’d be able to draw some average Joe’s who never played fantasy football in their life. It could also help the show if one owner was a rookie who has never played. It could make for some funny comments when they pick Brett Favre in the first round or think that Shaun Alexander is still a valuable player.
What do the readers think? Can this be a success? What could be added to my suggestions in order to increase general interest in the show? I guess you could make it a celebrity league? Have them pay their own money to enter. That would be very funny viewing as I’m sure their knowledge isn’t nearly what many roto-geeks have. The more I think about it, the show should definitely be a celebrity league. You can have some former athletes, musicians and actors/actresses with name recognition. Maybe Jerry could round up 9 of his former teammates and his league could be the one featured? I think this is a great idea and someone with connections should run with it.
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