To most watching the monday night football game, John Carney's miss of a 37 yard chip shot appeared to be a meaningless miss because the Saints were ahead by 3 touchdowns with 4 minutes to go. But for the millions of people who wagered on the total being over 57 points and for the 7 people who had Carney as their kicker in the Vegas bracket and missed the cut by less than 6 points, the miss was very costly!
Personally, I like having negative points for kickers and defenses. Why not penalize players for playing poorly? However, that's a debate for another blog. This blog is about 7 teams who saw their chance at becoming a million dollar team go wide right. In the FFOC, a made 37 yard FG is worth 3 points where as a miss is -3. That's a 6 point swing for these teams who unofficially missed the cut by less than 6 points.
Krejci XII - 100.72 pts**
Danmar - 100.68 pts
Captain Marvel #23 - 98.94 pts
Gun Flavored - 98.88 pts
SFV Matadors - 97.04 pts
Showmethemoney12 - 96.86 pts
mnm 95.84 pts
As of tonight, the unofficial cutline is 101.72.
Upon further review, we have a development just as heartbreaking as Carney's missed field goal. Krejci XII got a 10 yard run from Pierre Thomas on the Saints last play of the game to put them ahead of Reeces Team XI by 1 tenth of a point! Had Mike Bell not gotten hurt on the play before or had Thomas only gained 8 yards, Reeces would still have a chance at a million dollars!
It's endings like this which make the FFOC a great contest! Each week there are hundreds of stories about the triplets...woulda, coulda and shoulda. The adrenaline rush of watching your team move above the line after a big play or waiting to see if your team can hold off the ever increasing cut line on Monday night is quite exciting.
Last year my one and only team was eliminated after the 2nd week. This time 2 of my 6 teams are still alive in the Vegas bracket after 12 weeks. Only 3 more cut lines to go! I now have a 1/401 chance at becoming a millionaire.
Some teams sitting at or near 101.72 will probably check the cut line scoring daily to see if any stat changes make the line move up or down. Reportedly there's an error in the scoring for Arizona's defense. Some may gain or lose a point due to a stat change if it's made by Wednesday.
If I have time this week, I'll note other heart breaking stories of those missing the cut line by having Matt Ryan and his whopping .6 points or having an injured player that was a late scratch such as Kurt Warner or Cedric Benson.
Monday, November 30
concussed
That's how I feel going into the Monday night game which should be a shoot out. As it is now, one of my Vegas teams is done and two are above the cutline, but not safely. Since I had to leave at 9 am on Sunday, I did not catch the late news that Benson and Warner would not play. I also went with Turner in 2 of my leagues.
I take some solace in my Vegas team which started Warner and is now out of it, because barring a monster night by Maroney, I probably wouldn't have made the cut anyways. That team sits at 59 points with Maroney playing tonight. I would have used Mendenhall or Ricky Williams at OP instead of warner, and that would have only gotten me into the 70's. If I played both Mendenhall and Williams instead of Warner and Turner, then I'd be right at the cut line with Maroney playing.
My two Vegas teams alive right now are at 108.54 and 111.90 points. Thehigher team has Gostkowski going, so I feel confident in that one. The Jager Meister team is currently ranked 363 so over 400 teams need to pass me. It's possible, but being almost 20 above the cut line, I feel I have a decent chance to advance 2 teams. I'll get a better read at half time.
In the 1st and Goal bracket, the team that started Warner won't make it. I have one team safely above the line and the 3rd team started Benson and is at 102.5 with Gostkowski tonight. My only other option at Rb was Forsett and his 25 points, so hopefully the Benson blunder doesn't cost me. All things led to him playing as he practiced all week.
Unlike last week, I'll be watching the cut lines closely. I hope to get 2 teams past in both the Vegas bracket and 1st and Goal. If not, it will be a very disappointing week.
I take some solace in my Vegas team which started Warner and is now out of it, because barring a monster night by Maroney, I probably wouldn't have made the cut anyways. That team sits at 59 points with Maroney playing tonight. I would have used Mendenhall or Ricky Williams at OP instead of warner, and that would have only gotten me into the 70's. If I played both Mendenhall and Williams instead of Warner and Turner, then I'd be right at the cut line with Maroney playing.
My two Vegas teams alive right now are at 108.54 and 111.90 points. Thehigher team has Gostkowski going, so I feel confident in that one. The Jager Meister team is currently ranked 363 so over 400 teams need to pass me. It's possible, but being almost 20 above the cut line, I feel I have a decent chance to advance 2 teams. I'll get a better read at half time.
In the 1st and Goal bracket, the team that started Warner won't make it. I have one team safely above the line and the 3rd team started Benson and is at 102.5 with Gostkowski tonight. My only other option at Rb was Forsett and his 25 points, so hopefully the Benson blunder doesn't cost me. All things led to him playing as he practiced all week.
Unlike last week, I'll be watching the cut lines closely. I hope to get 2 teams past in both the Vegas bracket and 1st and Goal. If not, it will be a very disappointing week.
Thursday, November 26
Lineup Issues
Thanksgiving football is great, but it's a nightmare for fantasy football owners. Especially if your league locks the rosters at the kickoff of the first game for the week. This week, a lot of stars with good match ups are questionable for Sunday. Kurt Warner, Steven Jackson, Cedric Benson and Michael Turner are such players. If you have any of these players and you have a lesser player as a backup who plays today, what do you do?
I always go the safe route. If Marion Barber or Knowshown Moreno are my only backup for Turner, Jackson or Benson, I'll start the healthy player. If we find out Sunday that the stud rb isn't playing, then you're stuck with a zero at the position which is hard to overcome. If you can wait til Sunday and have a backup who also plays sunday, then it's an easier decision than if you have to decide right now which one to play.
One tip for FFOC players involves a move I had to do with one of my Vegas bracket teams. I have Kurt Warner and Aaron Rodgers. I made sure to put Warner at OP rather than QB so I have more flexibility as a replacement for Warner should he not play on Sunday. I have Leinart, but think he sucks, so I don't want to be forced to use him if Warner doesn't go. If you have someone who may not play due to injury, keep them in your OP spot (or on the bench) to increase your flexibility in case they don't play and you need to make a last minute adjustment.
I hope all my readers have a wonderful Thanksgiving filled with touchdowns and long field goals! Safe travels and refreshing cocktails to all! Go Packers!
I always go the safe route. If Marion Barber or Knowshown Moreno are my only backup for Turner, Jackson or Benson, I'll start the healthy player. If we find out Sunday that the stud rb isn't playing, then you're stuck with a zero at the position which is hard to overcome. If you can wait til Sunday and have a backup who also plays sunday, then it's an easier decision than if you have to decide right now which one to play.
One tip for FFOC players involves a move I had to do with one of my Vegas bracket teams. I have Kurt Warner and Aaron Rodgers. I made sure to put Warner at OP rather than QB so I have more flexibility as a replacement for Warner should he not play on Sunday. I have Leinart, but think he sucks, so I don't want to be forced to use him if Warner doesn't go. If you have someone who may not play due to injury, keep them in your OP spot (or on the bench) to increase your flexibility in case they don't play and you need to make a last minute adjustment.
I hope all my readers have a wonderful Thanksgiving filled with touchdowns and long field goals! Safe travels and refreshing cocktails to all! Go Packers!
Monday, November 23
Las Vegas bound?
This is the first week of the true FFOC contest when the cutline comes into play. This slowly weeds out teams each week until only 15 remain and earn a trip to Vegas for week 16 and have a chance to win a million dollars for playing fantasy football!
The Vegas bracket starts out with 1539 teams which all have a .06% chance to win a million dollars! Not very good odds, but much better than the lottery. Twenty percent of the teams will be eliminated this week leaving 1232. Those teams will see their odds increase to .08% chance of becoming a millionaire. Obviously owners with multiple teams like myself, will have slightly better odds.
I have 3 teams in the Vegas bracket, and all 3 easily advanced to next week, so I don't have to sweat out the currently cut line of 89.24. Tonight features 3 guys who can change the cut line dramatically. Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Chris Johnson all have favorable match-ups. My guess is the cut line will end up around 96.3 for the first week. If you're near the cut line and don't have anyone playing, good luck in the 1st and goal bracket.
As mentioned previously, all 3 of my Vegas teams will advance. It's nice to have a big week, but I'd rather it happen in week 13 or 14 where less than 50% of the teams advance. However, to win the million, it helps to have a higher weekly average, so I'm not going to complain about my big week. Here's how I stand going into tonight....
Jager Meister - 154.26 pts 16th place for the week
Jim Beam - 135.22 pts + Kris Brown tonight 131st for the week
Jose Cuervo - 134.28 pts 148th place for the week
If some late scores occur tonight, I may check the cut line to see who was affected by a missed field goal or a meaningless TD on the last play of the game. However, since it's only week 11 and 80% of the teams advance, I probably won't blog about the cut line this week. As the field gets smaller, I will give weekly blogs on the lucky advancers, the tough luck losers and other interesting facts about the people still alive for the million dollar first prize.
As nice as it would be to become the next millionaire, I just want to go to Vegas and enjoy the experience of having a team with a CHANCE to win. All the stories I heard about last years party makes me want to go even more. Maybe I'll have to scrape enough money together to make the trip regardless if one of my teams makes the final 15 or not?
Good luck to those who are sweating out the cut line tonight!
The Vegas bracket starts out with 1539 teams which all have a .06% chance to win a million dollars! Not very good odds, but much better than the lottery. Twenty percent of the teams will be eliminated this week leaving 1232. Those teams will see their odds increase to .08% chance of becoming a millionaire. Obviously owners with multiple teams like myself, will have slightly better odds.
I have 3 teams in the Vegas bracket, and all 3 easily advanced to next week, so I don't have to sweat out the currently cut line of 89.24. Tonight features 3 guys who can change the cut line dramatically. Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Chris Johnson all have favorable match-ups. My guess is the cut line will end up around 96.3 for the first week. If you're near the cut line and don't have anyone playing, good luck in the 1st and goal bracket.
As mentioned previously, all 3 of my Vegas teams will advance. It's nice to have a big week, but I'd rather it happen in week 13 or 14 where less than 50% of the teams advance. However, to win the million, it helps to have a higher weekly average, so I'm not going to complain about my big week. Here's how I stand going into tonight....
Jager Meister - 154.26 pts 16th place for the week
Jim Beam - 135.22 pts + Kris Brown tonight 131st for the week
Jose Cuervo - 134.28 pts 148th place for the week
If some late scores occur tonight, I may check the cut line to see who was affected by a missed field goal or a meaningless TD on the last play of the game. However, since it's only week 11 and 80% of the teams advance, I probably won't blog about the cut line this week. As the field gets smaller, I will give weekly blogs on the lucky advancers, the tough luck losers and other interesting facts about the people still alive for the million dollar first prize.
As nice as it would be to become the next millionaire, I just want to go to Vegas and enjoy the experience of having a team with a CHANCE to win. All the stories I heard about last years party makes me want to go even more. Maybe I'll have to scrape enough money together to make the trip regardless if one of my teams makes the final 15 or not?
Good luck to those who are sweating out the cut line tonight!
Friday, November 20
Shattered Dreams
Last week I went 1-2 in my League Championship games. One blowout win, one blowout loss, and the 3rd match went down to the two night games. I had Ray Rice, Todd Heap and a 4 point lead. The other team had Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne. Needless to say, there was very little suspense for either of us on Monday night.
There will be plenty of suspense this week, and the weeks to follow. Week 11 is here and it's the start of the Vegas Bracket cut line. Sure, there are other brackets with cutlines as well, but all we care about is the $1 MILLION dollar first prize of the Vegas bracket. As nice as the grand prize is, I only think about making the top 15 and enjoying an all expense paid trip to Vegas and partying it up with my fellow fantasy geeks...I mean gurus.
Unfortunately, week 10 not only saw me go 1-2 in my league championship games, but I also got hit with the injury bug. All 3 of my Vegas bracket teams have Ronnie Brown and two of them have Michael Turner. I had Ricky Williams as a backup in two leagues, which turned out nice for this week. I also have Jerious Norwood in all 3 leagues, which doesn't look like it will help me. Week 10 made some teams much stronger and other teams much weaker. Guys like Brown, Turner, Julius Jones, Dwayne Bowe are out and Cedric Benson is baned up. Justin Forsett, Ricky Williams, and Chris Chambers owners are probably excited about the injuries.
Fortunately, I am deep at RB in the leagues I have Turner, Brown and Benson. However, I'm now at the point where I can't play the match-up game and one more injury would be devastating. I'm sure others are far worse off than I am.
If you have two or more of the following players, I don't think you'll have to sweat the cut line this week:
Maurice Jones Drew
Andre Johnson
Chris Johnson
Matt Schaub
Calvin Johnson
Thomas Jones
I predict all will score at least 20 points this week and could be in the 30's. Ricky Williams scored a surprising 33.80 last night which has 2 of my 3 teams in good shape. Nobody really had a dud game last night to put owners on red alert.
I will be in Green Bay for the Packers game on Sunday so I won't be able to follow the cut line. I don't think the cut line gets too exciting until Monday night when it's do or die. Last year some people thought they were safely above going into Monday night only to see their defense record a -8.0 or have 3 players go off for 30+ points and vault numerous teams ahead of them. This week, Tennessee faces Houston on Monday night. Schaub and the Johnson's should move the cut line 5-10 points Monday night. Two of my teams don't have any Titans or Texans and I'm starting Kris Brown on my 3rd team. I hope I don't suffer from Lawrence Tynes syndrome. Last year, he missed a 4th quarter FG which dropped one or two people below the cut line. I love having the chance to get negative points! That way nobody's safe.
Good luck to the 1500+ teams that still have hopes to become a fantasy football millionaire!
There will be plenty of suspense this week, and the weeks to follow. Week 11 is here and it's the start of the Vegas Bracket cut line. Sure, there are other brackets with cutlines as well, but all we care about is the $1 MILLION dollar first prize of the Vegas bracket. As nice as the grand prize is, I only think about making the top 15 and enjoying an all expense paid trip to Vegas and partying it up with my fellow fantasy geeks...I mean gurus.
Unfortunately, week 10 not only saw me go 1-2 in my league championship games, but I also got hit with the injury bug. All 3 of my Vegas bracket teams have Ronnie Brown and two of them have Michael Turner. I had Ricky Williams as a backup in two leagues, which turned out nice for this week. I also have Jerious Norwood in all 3 leagues, which doesn't look like it will help me. Week 10 made some teams much stronger and other teams much weaker. Guys like Brown, Turner, Julius Jones, Dwayne Bowe are out and Cedric Benson is baned up. Justin Forsett, Ricky Williams, and Chris Chambers owners are probably excited about the injuries.
Fortunately, I am deep at RB in the leagues I have Turner, Brown and Benson. However, I'm now at the point where I can't play the match-up game and one more injury would be devastating. I'm sure others are far worse off than I am.
If you have two or more of the following players, I don't think you'll have to sweat the cut line this week:
Maurice Jones Drew
Andre Johnson
Chris Johnson
Matt Schaub
Calvin Johnson
Thomas Jones
I predict all will score at least 20 points this week and could be in the 30's. Ricky Williams scored a surprising 33.80 last night which has 2 of my 3 teams in good shape. Nobody really had a dud game last night to put owners on red alert.
I will be in Green Bay for the Packers game on Sunday so I won't be able to follow the cut line. I don't think the cut line gets too exciting until Monday night when it's do or die. Last year some people thought they were safely above going into Monday night only to see their defense record a -8.0 or have 3 players go off for 30+ points and vault numerous teams ahead of them. This week, Tennessee faces Houston on Monday night. Schaub and the Johnson's should move the cut line 5-10 points Monday night. Two of my teams don't have any Titans or Texans and I'm starting Kris Brown on my 3rd team. I hope I don't suffer from Lawrence Tynes syndrome. Last year, he missed a 4th quarter FG which dropped one or two people below the cut line. I love having the chance to get negative points! That way nobody's safe.
Good luck to the 1500+ teams that still have hopes to become a fantasy football millionaire!
Sunday, November 15
Love it!
Hot off the presses...Indy 35, New England 34.
All of you second guessers out there, I disagree with you! Anybody can play it safe and and lose respectfully. A smart man, like Bellicheck will do what gives him the best odds to win.
For those who are in a cave and didn't see the Sunday night showdown, here's the situation. New England is up by 6 with 4th and 2 from their own 28 yard line with 2:11 left. Indy had only 1 timeout left.
Ninety-nine percent of the gutless coaches in all of football, would punt the ball away to one of the most feared qb's in football. Bellicheck decides to go for it. Brady completed the pass for what appeared to be a first down. However, since Faulk bobbled the ball, the ref gave him a poor spot and Indy took over on downs. After watching the replay, it appeared to me that Faulk got control at the 3o yard line for a first down, but since New England used their last 2 time outs on the drive, they couldn't challenge the play. The result is neither here nor there. The debate is over his decision to go for it.
I look at it like this. I would feel much better with the league's 2nd best offense (in yards gained) getting 2 yards against a team with a depleted secondary than my tired defense stopping Manning and the Colts from going 60-70 yards in 2 minutes with one time out. If you gain 2 yards, you can run the clock down to 30 seconds or less. If you don't, Indy still has to get the ball in the end zone. I haven't found the stats, but I assume that New England converts over 60% of 3rd or 4th and 2 yards or less.
To say a punt is the only option there is like saying the prevent defense is the only option when protecting a late lead. We all know that a prevent defense only prevents you from winning. Indy's offense was hot and New England's defense was tired. I don't think the call to go for it was risky. I think it was the right call which gave them the best chance to win. All you can ask out of your coach is to put you in the best position to win.
ps> the late Manning/Wayne td cost me a lot of money, so I'm not on Bellicheck's side because he helped me in my leagues/investments
All of you second guessers out there, I disagree with you! Anybody can play it safe and and lose respectfully. A smart man, like Bellicheck will do what gives him the best odds to win.
For those who are in a cave and didn't see the Sunday night showdown, here's the situation. New England is up by 6 with 4th and 2 from their own 28 yard line with 2:11 left. Indy had only 1 timeout left.
Ninety-nine percent of the gutless coaches in all of football, would punt the ball away to one of the most feared qb's in football. Bellicheck decides to go for it. Brady completed the pass for what appeared to be a first down. However, since Faulk bobbled the ball, the ref gave him a poor spot and Indy took over on downs. After watching the replay, it appeared to me that Faulk got control at the 3o yard line for a first down, but since New England used their last 2 time outs on the drive, they couldn't challenge the play. The result is neither here nor there. The debate is over his decision to go for it.
I look at it like this. I would feel much better with the league's 2nd best offense (in yards gained) getting 2 yards against a team with a depleted secondary than my tired defense stopping Manning and the Colts from going 60-70 yards in 2 minutes with one time out. If you gain 2 yards, you can run the clock down to 30 seconds or less. If you don't, Indy still has to get the ball in the end zone. I haven't found the stats, but I assume that New England converts over 60% of 3rd or 4th and 2 yards or less.
To say a punt is the only option there is like saying the prevent defense is the only option when protecting a late lead. We all know that a prevent defense only prevents you from winning. Indy's offense was hot and New England's defense was tired. I don't think the call to go for it was risky. I think it was the right call which gave them the best chance to win. All you can ask out of your coach is to put you in the best position to win.
ps> the late Manning/Wayne td cost me a lot of money, so I'm not on Bellicheck's side because he helped me in my leagues/investments
Friday, November 13
Week 10 title matches
I am fortunate enough to have 3 of my 6 tier teams in the league championship this week. All are tier 2 teams, so there's no pressure in making the Vegas bracket. However, there is money on the line, or straight cash homey as a certain WR who I'm against in 2 leagues will say.
I'll be focusing on Aaron Rodgers and Michael Crabtree whom I have on all 3 of my teams. I also have Ronnie Brown and Nate Burleson on two of the teams. Brett Favre, Randy Moss and Sidney Rice appear on 2 of my opponents rosters. Hopefully ADP goes nuts and Minnesota doesn't throw much this week against Detroit.
In the conflict of interest column (players I both have and am playing against) are MJD, Ryan Longwell, and Ray Rice.
League #710 vs White Crane XVI
me: Rodgers, MJD, R.Brown, Crabtree (4.8 pts), Burleson, Boldin, Mendenhall, T.Gonzalez, Longwell, Vi-queens
Crane: Brady, D.Williams, P.Thomas, V.Jackson, Austin, Sims-Walker, (Addai/S.Rice/S.Smith), Da. Clark, Folk, Philly
Odd for a championship game, neither team will be starting 2 QB's. I like all 3 of my RB match-ups so I'm rolling the dice with Mendenhall at OP rather than use a QB (Cassel or Sanchez). Crane currently has Matt Schaub at OP who's on bye. The best players on his bench are Addai, S.Smith (car), and S.Rice. There's a possibility he may start both Addai and Rice and bench Sims-Walker.
I feel Brady and the Pats are going to tear up the depleted Colts secondary, so despite my good RB match-ups, I could fall behind early at the QB position. He has much better WR's than I do. I'll need monster weeks out of my RB's in order to win. With Crabtree not doing much, I may take out Mendenhall and go with one of my QB's. Cassel plays Oakland, which is a bad team but they have a solid defense. The Sanchise plays at home against Jacksonville which is a so/so match-up.
Prediction: Jager Meister - 116.3 White Crane - 145.2
League #623 vs Guinness Stingers
me: Warner, Turner, R.Brown, R.White, Burleson, Crabtree(4.8), Rodgers, Celek, Stover, Pitt
Stingers: McNabb, Forte (16.1), R.Rice, R.Moss, Marshall, Berrian, Favre, Gates, Longwell, 49ers (17.0)
The Thursday night game did not go well for me in this match-up. I'm already behind the 8 ball, but I am still confident my team will win this week. I have a huge advantage at QB. My rb's have pretty good match-ups but so does Ray Rice for him. As with most of my teams, I'm at a disadvantage at WR. I don't expect more than 4 pts out of Berrian, so that will help me. Carson Palmer's due for a bad game, so I'm hoping my Pittsburgh D can come close to what the 49ers did.
Prediction: Jose Cuervo - 124.2 Stingers - 101.6
League #777 vs Super System XXI
me: Rodgers, A.Peterson, R. Rice, Crabtree (4.8), Jennings, D. Jackson, Charles, Heap, Mare, Cin
SSXXI: Cutler (7.48), MJD, McCoy (may start Moreno), R.Moss, Wayne, S.Rice, Favre, Shockey, Feely, NO
Another league where I love my RB match-ups and have a huge advantage. I also benefited from Cutler's poor performance last night. Once again, I've chosen not to start a QB at the OP position. Eli is on bye and my other option is Vince Young. For now I have Jamal Charles at OP because I like the match-up, but he didn't get many touches last week, so I may change to Marion Barber III or possibly Young. As always, My wr's are the weak point on the team. I expect good things out of DJax, but that's about it.
I'm hoping the owner sticks with McCoy instead of using Moreno. His WR's are the only position giving him a chance to win this week.
Prediction: Jim Beam - 138.1 Super System - 88.7
I'd be happy if my predictions are correct and I win 2 out of my 3 championships. The goal is obviously to win all 3. Anything less than 2 would be a major disappointment. Bad luck to my opponents this week! I hope your players all get concussed, but return next week. =)
I'll be focusing on Aaron Rodgers and Michael Crabtree whom I have on all 3 of my teams. I also have Ronnie Brown and Nate Burleson on two of the teams. Brett Favre, Randy Moss and Sidney Rice appear on 2 of my opponents rosters. Hopefully ADP goes nuts and Minnesota doesn't throw much this week against Detroit.
In the conflict of interest column (players I both have and am playing against) are MJD, Ryan Longwell, and Ray Rice.
League #710 vs White Crane XVI
me: Rodgers, MJD, R.Brown, Crabtree (4.8 pts), Burleson, Boldin, Mendenhall, T.Gonzalez, Longwell, Vi-queens
Crane: Brady, D.Williams, P.Thomas, V.Jackson, Austin, Sims-Walker, (Addai/S.Rice/S.Smith), Da. Clark, Folk, Philly
Odd for a championship game, neither team will be starting 2 QB's. I like all 3 of my RB match-ups so I'm rolling the dice with Mendenhall at OP rather than use a QB (Cassel or Sanchez). Crane currently has Matt Schaub at OP who's on bye. The best players on his bench are Addai, S.Smith (car), and S.Rice. There's a possibility he may start both Addai and Rice and bench Sims-Walker.
I feel Brady and the Pats are going to tear up the depleted Colts secondary, so despite my good RB match-ups, I could fall behind early at the QB position. He has much better WR's than I do. I'll need monster weeks out of my RB's in order to win. With Crabtree not doing much, I may take out Mendenhall and go with one of my QB's. Cassel plays Oakland, which is a bad team but they have a solid defense. The Sanchise plays at home against Jacksonville which is a so/so match-up.
Prediction: Jager Meister - 116.3 White Crane - 145.2
League #623 vs Guinness Stingers
me: Warner, Turner, R.Brown, R.White, Burleson, Crabtree(4.8), Rodgers, Celek, Stover, Pitt
Stingers: McNabb, Forte (16.1), R.Rice, R.Moss, Marshall, Berrian, Favre, Gates, Longwell, 49ers (17.0)
The Thursday night game did not go well for me in this match-up. I'm already behind the 8 ball, but I am still confident my team will win this week. I have a huge advantage at QB. My rb's have pretty good match-ups but so does Ray Rice for him. As with most of my teams, I'm at a disadvantage at WR. I don't expect more than 4 pts out of Berrian, so that will help me. Carson Palmer's due for a bad game, so I'm hoping my Pittsburgh D can come close to what the 49ers did.
Prediction: Jose Cuervo - 124.2 Stingers - 101.6
League #777 vs Super System XXI
me: Rodgers, A.Peterson, R. Rice, Crabtree (4.8), Jennings, D. Jackson, Charles, Heap, Mare, Cin
SSXXI: Cutler (7.48), MJD, McCoy (may start Moreno), R.Moss, Wayne, S.Rice, Favre, Shockey, Feely, NO
Another league where I love my RB match-ups and have a huge advantage. I also benefited from Cutler's poor performance last night. Once again, I've chosen not to start a QB at the OP position. Eli is on bye and my other option is Vince Young. For now I have Jamal Charles at OP because I like the match-up, but he didn't get many touches last week, so I may change to Marion Barber III or possibly Young. As always, My wr's are the weak point on the team. I expect good things out of DJax, but that's about it.
I'm hoping the owner sticks with McCoy instead of using Moreno. His WR's are the only position giving him a chance to win this week.
Prediction: Jim Beam - 138.1 Super System - 88.7
I'd be happy if my predictions are correct and I win 2 out of my 3 championships. The goal is obviously to win all 3. Anything less than 2 would be a major disappointment. Bad luck to my opponents this week! I hope your players all get concussed, but return next week. =)
Wednesday, November 11
Right on...almost
Before the season, I made predictions in 4 of my leagues on what the final standings would be. Obviously, it's impossible to predict devastating injuries (can't think of any this year) or who will get key pickups during the season (Miles Austin, Kellen Winslow, Sims-Walker). It appears like I was spot on in 2 leagues and pretty far off in the other 2 leagues. Here's a summary of the predictions.
League #474 Predicted top 3: Cocktails and Dreams, Learn to Rise, Kuhawks Actual top 3: Cocktails and Dreams, Kuhawks, Alley Cats Predicted bottom 3: Goombeans, jccanes, cougar goldrush Actual bottom 3: Learn to Rise, goombeans, cougar goldrush
http://scottffoc.blogspot.com/2009/07/league-474-draft-analysis.html
My key for Chad (Cocktails and Dreams) was to find a solid #2 rb behind MJD and Ray Rice was just that for him. I predicted that kuhawks had a good starting lineup, but thin bench. They added Collie and Mendenhall to strengthen that bench.
I whiffed on Learn to Rise, although my analysis was good. I said the rb's would make or break the team. I figured Barber would be solid and they needed another rb to step up between McFadden, Maroney, and Jonothan Stewart. I figured McFadden would step up to get them in the top 3, but the team fell to the bottom with their rb's doing almost nothing.
League #495 Predicted top 3: cvnopka3, Nicky Double D's, Jack Daniels Actual top 3: Clamdigger 600, Booty Busters 1, sappsuckers Predicted bottom 3: Clamdigger 600, sappsuckers, brew crew Actual bottom 3: Nicky Double D's, Team E, Brew Crew
http://scottffoc.blogspot.com/2009/07/analysis-for-league-495.html
As you can see, I pretty much predicted this league in reverse order. One reason is that Nicky Double D's did not make any pickups throughout the year. They did make roster moves every week, but a big hole at #2 rb and OP was never filled. The turnaround in the sappsuckers from the draft was the additions of Steve Smith and Miles Austin. That gave them some weapons to go with the great qb's they drafted. I'm still trying to figure out how Clamdigger finished 1st. Peyton Manning had a large part I'm sure. My one key was for Ronnie Brown to get 20+ touches a game, and he's done that. DeSean Jackson and Donald Driver did better than expected, so that's probably how they exceeded my expectations.
League #623 Predicted top 3: Jose Cuervo, Lucky Ducks, Guinnes Stingers Actual top 3: Jose Cuervo, Guinness Stingers, moneymandtejas Predicted bottom 3: Just Russ, Cookie Monster, Papercuts Actual bottom 3: Lucky Ducks, Just Russ, Little J
http://scottffoc.blogspot.com/2009/08/draft-analysis-league-623.html
This is the only league where I road the high horse and picked my team to win it. My tequilla crew had my back and won the league's regular season title. My predicted standings were pretty close to 100% with the one exception being the Lucky Ducks. They did score the 3rd most points in the league, so they must of had bad luck in the match-ups each week. Calvin Johnson's injury hurt them too.
Papercuts finished 7th, which is better than the 10th I predicted, but they were 9th in the league in points scored. Russ tried making a new mold in this league by taking a WR with his first 4 picks (Fitzgerald, A.Johnson, Wayne, S.Smith). As expected, the lack of QB and RB hurt him in the long run. RB probably hurt him the most as Flacco and Cassel were decent most weeks. Lesson learned?
League #710 Predicted top 3: Brilliant Ballplayers, Direwolf, Growlers Actual top 3: White Crane XVIII, Jager Meister, Anarchist Predicted bottom 3: Colts_4, nolencole, Thor Actual bottom 3: Brilliant ballplayers, Thor, ManBombwigs
http://scottffoc.blogspot.com/2009/08/league-710-draft-writeup.html
White Crane got the WR production out of free agents/lower picks that I said they needed. Austin, VJax and Sidney Rice were all studs more weeks than they were duds. I was also way off on Brilliant Ballplayers. I grossly over-valued their bench players. Steven Jackson's lack of TD's didn't help either. ManBombwigs finished much lower than my 4th place prediction, but they didn't change their lineup the last 2 weeks which cost them a 4th or 5th place finish as they went 0-4 and would have finished 6th with 1 win in those 2 weeks.
I loved my team after the draft, but don't like to give my teams high expectations, so I picked it to finish 5th. I had a nice run late to make the playoffs.
Overall, my post-draft analysis in all the leagues was quite accurate. This was one year where most of the players I valued high did well and the ones I thought would struggle, did struggle. Of my 6 tier teams, the worst one finished in 5th place. I had 3 teams make the Vegas bracket and a 4th team lose out on a tie breaker. I will do more post-draft analysis next season to see if this was just a lucky year for me or if I can truly evaluate talent accurately.
Coming later this week will be a preview of my 3 league championship games.
Good luck to those who have meaningful games this week!
League #474 Predicted top 3: Cocktails and Dreams, Learn to Rise, Kuhawks Actual top 3: Cocktails and Dreams, Kuhawks, Alley Cats Predicted bottom 3: Goombeans, jccanes, cougar goldrush Actual bottom 3: Learn to Rise, goombeans, cougar goldrush
http://scottffoc.blogspot.com/2009/07/league-474-draft-analysis.html
My key for Chad (Cocktails and Dreams) was to find a solid #2 rb behind MJD and Ray Rice was just that for him. I predicted that kuhawks had a good starting lineup, but thin bench. They added Collie and Mendenhall to strengthen that bench.
I whiffed on Learn to Rise, although my analysis was good. I said the rb's would make or break the team. I figured Barber would be solid and they needed another rb to step up between McFadden, Maroney, and Jonothan Stewart. I figured McFadden would step up to get them in the top 3, but the team fell to the bottom with their rb's doing almost nothing.
League #495 Predicted top 3: cvnopka3, Nicky Double D's, Jack Daniels Actual top 3: Clamdigger 600, Booty Busters 1, sappsuckers Predicted bottom 3: Clamdigger 600, sappsuckers, brew crew Actual bottom 3: Nicky Double D's, Team E, Brew Crew
http://scottffoc.blogspot.com/2009/07/analysis-for-league-495.html
As you can see, I pretty much predicted this league in reverse order. One reason is that Nicky Double D's did not make any pickups throughout the year. They did make roster moves every week, but a big hole at #2 rb and OP was never filled. The turnaround in the sappsuckers from the draft was the additions of Steve Smith and Miles Austin. That gave them some weapons to go with the great qb's they drafted. I'm still trying to figure out how Clamdigger finished 1st. Peyton Manning had a large part I'm sure. My one key was for Ronnie Brown to get 20+ touches a game, and he's done that. DeSean Jackson and Donald Driver did better than expected, so that's probably how they exceeded my expectations.
League #623 Predicted top 3: Jose Cuervo, Lucky Ducks, Guinnes Stingers Actual top 3: Jose Cuervo, Guinness Stingers, moneymandtejas Predicted bottom 3: Just Russ, Cookie Monster, Papercuts Actual bottom 3: Lucky Ducks, Just Russ, Little J
http://scottffoc.blogspot.com/2009/08/draft-analysis-league-623.html
This is the only league where I road the high horse and picked my team to win it. My tequilla crew had my back and won the league's regular season title. My predicted standings were pretty close to 100% with the one exception being the Lucky Ducks. They did score the 3rd most points in the league, so they must of had bad luck in the match-ups each week. Calvin Johnson's injury hurt them too.
Papercuts finished 7th, which is better than the 10th I predicted, but they were 9th in the league in points scored. Russ tried making a new mold in this league by taking a WR with his first 4 picks (Fitzgerald, A.Johnson, Wayne, S.Smith). As expected, the lack of QB and RB hurt him in the long run. RB probably hurt him the most as Flacco and Cassel were decent most weeks. Lesson learned?
League #710 Predicted top 3: Brilliant Ballplayers, Direwolf, Growlers Actual top 3: White Crane XVIII, Jager Meister, Anarchist Predicted bottom 3: Colts_4, nolencole, Thor Actual bottom 3: Brilliant ballplayers, Thor, ManBombwigs
http://scottffoc.blogspot.com/2009/08/league-710-draft-writeup.html
White Crane got the WR production out of free agents/lower picks that I said they needed. Austin, VJax and Sidney Rice were all studs more weeks than they were duds. I was also way off on Brilliant Ballplayers. I grossly over-valued their bench players. Steven Jackson's lack of TD's didn't help either. ManBombwigs finished much lower than my 4th place prediction, but they didn't change their lineup the last 2 weeks which cost them a 4th or 5th place finish as they went 0-4 and would have finished 6th with 1 win in those 2 weeks.
I loved my team after the draft, but don't like to give my teams high expectations, so I picked it to finish 5th. I had a nice run late to make the playoffs.
Overall, my post-draft analysis in all the leagues was quite accurate. This was one year where most of the players I valued high did well and the ones I thought would struggle, did struggle. Of my 6 tier teams, the worst one finished in 5th place. I had 3 teams make the Vegas bracket and a 4th team lose out on a tie breaker. I will do more post-draft analysis next season to see if this was just a lucky year for me or if I can truly evaluate talent accurately.
Coming later this week will be a preview of my 3 league championship games.
Good luck to those who have meaningful games this week!
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