Friday, October 30

It's go time!

It's now or never in the FFOC. With just 2 weeks to go in the FFOC regular season, the race to the championship has probably narrowed down to no more than 5 teams in most of your leagues. A few teams probably already have a playoff spot wrapped up, which is good for tier 2 teams. QSchool and Tier 1 teams will still have to sweat out week 10.
Here are how my 7 FFOC teams are looking with 2 weeks to go:

QSchool Rum - Qschool league #1312

Currently in a 3 way tie for first and one team is only a game back. This week, I play FantasyStars, one of the teams tied with me. If I win the h2h matchup, I should be good for the championship game as I play a 3-11 team next week. Crystal Ball, the third 10-4 team plays Redbirds, the 9-5 team this week, so week 8 is turning out to be the key week in this league. The other two 10-4 teams play each other next week, so if I can win this week, those 2 may be fighting it out to see who plays me in the finals week 10.

Johnny Walker - tier 2 league #1145

Currently sitting in 4th place at 7-7 after a few straight 1-1 weeks. I'm 3 out of 2nd, but the playoffs look out of reach. Not only do I have to gain 2 games on one team and 3 on another, but there are also 3 other teams at 7-7 who could pass me in points if the top teams falter. This is one case where I'd prefer to play the top teams so I can control my own fate. I play one of the 7-7 teams this week and the first place team (11-3) next week. The team in 3rd, which is 2 games in front of me, gets to play the two lowest scoring teams the next 2 weeks.

Jager Meister - tier 2 league #710

Tied in 2nd @11-3 and one game behind the first place team White Crane XVIII. Next week, I take on Anarchist, the other 11-3 team so that could most likely determine who takes on White Crane in the championship. White Crane could slip up this week as they are without Tom Brady and have Mark Sanchez at starting QB. This 3 team race is going to come down to help from the middle of the pack teams. My 0-2 last week has taken my team off of cruise control and into Score big mode!

Jose Cuervo - tier 2 league #623

This is a 4 team race with X1 still mathematically alive at 7-7. I'm tied for 3rd at 9-5 and one game out of 2nd. Guiness Stingers, the first place team, sits at 12-2 with a magic # of 2. Their total points are low, so if they stumble, they could miss the playoffs. This week I play the Lucky Ducks who haven't been lucky. They are 5-9 despite having the 3rd most points in the league. The Stingers play the other 9-5 team (moneymandtejas) this week so that's a big match. Next week, I play Everquest, the 10-4 team, so I control my own destiny. If I go 4-0 I should win any tie breaker and make the playoffs since I'm currently the highest scoring team in the league.

George Dickel - tier 1 league #474

I've given up all hope. Mathematically alive at 6-8, 4 games out of 2nd, I not only have to leap frog 5 teams, but I also need a few huge weeks as I'm 50 points behind almost all the teams ahead of me. Making the playoffs in this league would be like Vince Young leading the Titans to the NFL playoffs this year. Wishful thinking, but it's not going to happen.

Jim Beam - tier 2 league #777

My first team into the Vegas bracket. I'm 4 games ahead of 3 teams tied for 3rd so my magic number is one. I'm sure this loaded team can finish in the top 5 at least one of the next 2 weeks. If I go 0-4, I can still get in with help or by holding on to the tie breaker. I have a 50 point lead on the highest scoring 8-6 team.

Jack Daniels - tier 2 league #495

I am against the 3rd place team this week and a 7-7 team next week. The Booty Busters are without Brady and Wayne is banged up, so I have a good chance to pass one of the 2 teams I need to pass. The top 2 teams (Clam Digger and cvnpoka) go h2h this week so I can gain a game on at least one of them. Obviously I hope Clam Digger wins since I'm 3 games behind them and only 2 behind cvnpoka3. The bad news is that cvnpoka3 plays a team next week that has given up and scored only 600 points this year so I'll need cvnpoka3 to finish out of the top 5 at least one of these weeks. My lineup is below average this week without Palmer and Benson so I'll need a surprising week out of Mark Sanchez or Michael Bush or else week 9 may not matter for me. This team is definitely too weak to advance in the Vegas bracket, but Benson has a weak enough schedule that he could carry some teams through the Vegas bracket just as D'Angelo Williams did last year.


Overall, I should get 2 teams into the Vegas bracket for sure and I'm just hoping that one of my teams that needs help gets the help they need to give me 3 teams in the Vegas bracket. This week will eliminate at least 2 of my teams from contention, hopefully no more than 2.

Saturday, October 24

week 7 roster decisions

With 6 teams on bye this week, it seems like I have less choices to make. Sometimes that’s a good thing. Last week most of my moves paid off. We’ll see if that continues.

QSchool Rum2nd rb grant, maroney or t.jones?
Grant probably has the most favorable match-up. Will New England ever decide to run the ball? Maroney had a big opening quarter last week and took advantage of his opportunity. Jones is coming off a monster week against a crappy run defense. The Raiders will be much harder to run on. I want to give Maroney one more week to see if New England tries to get a running game going. Grant will be my choice as the Packers should put up plenty of points again this week. He’s been getting 20-25 touches the past few games, so his upside is probably best even though he’s the least talented of the 3. CHOICE: Ryan Grant
Carolina or Green Bay?
The Browns offense has been decent at home. Derek Anderson will give them some opportunities to make plays. Carolina is going against one of the weakest offensive lines in football. With Fitzpatrick at QB, there probably won’t be as many sack opportunities due to his mobility. I’m still going with the Panters because the pressure could cause turnovers. Buffalo has not put up a good offensive week yet mainly due to their offensive line. Carolina should have a field day running the ball and have a better chance of getting an early lead which results in the opponent having to pass. CHOICE: Carolina

Johnny Walker Cadillac Williams or Thomas Jones?
I’m not a big fan of Thomas Jones this week, so Caddy gets the start by default. He’s been solid so far this season and I’ve decided to give him his first start of the season. CHOICE: Carnell Williams
John Carney or Matt Stover?
Both teams should score plenty. Stover is making his season debut and is kicking in a dome. Carney is on grass, but plays against the better defense and has a stronger leg. I often like to start kickers going against good defenses because that means more FGs than PATs. I picked up Stover last week just to play him this week in the good match-up vs the Rams. I just hope he gets 1 or 2 FG’s to go with all the PATs he’ll be kicking. I’m going against my normal theories on kickers here. CHOICE: Stover

JagerMeisterneed 2 WR’s between S. Holmes, A. Collie, J. Knox, T. Owens, M. Crabtree
A mix of all or nothing WR’s. Owens has been on my bench the past few weeks and he’s going to stay there this week. Holmes is going against a weak secondary and Pittsburgh will probably throw a lot in this game, so he’s one of my starters. Collie burst on to the scene two weeks ago and appears to be gaining the confidence of Manning. Knox has scored in 4 straight weeks and is probably the only true receiver on the Bears (unless you count Olsen as a WR). Crabtree is making his debut this week and rather than letting him work his way in to the lineup, they are starting him right off the bat. This shows how talented he is (or how desperate the niners are for a playmaker). I’ve been going back and forth on this one. At first I had Collie in my lineup, but now I’m debating between Knox and Crabtree. I’ll probably switch this again before game time, but for now I’m going with Knox. CHOICE: Holmes and Knox

Jose CuervoB. Edwards or Crabtree?
Originally, I figured Edwards was a no brainer this week. However, a lot has changed in a few days. Edwards has missed some practice with a quad injury and Crabtree was named a starter. These events combined with the match-up Edwards may face against Asumogah has made me change my mind. CHOICE: Crabtree
Pittsburg or Carolina?
At the beginning of the year, I never would have imagined thinking about not playing the Pittsburgh D. They face the much more potent offense this week with Minnesota. Polomalu is healthy again which helps tremendously. I think Favre will get rattled by the blitzes and take some sacks as well as throw up some jump balls. He will also make some big plays reading the blitz which could lead to 20+ points. As stated earlier, I like Carolina’s match-up and Peppers could have field day. I figure that if Minnesota can put up 30+ against Baltimore, they could do the same against Pittsburgh. CHOICE: Carolina

George Dickel
OP Delhomme, Witten or Addai?
Since I first read the FFOC rules last year, I said to myself that it would be dumb not to start 2 QB’s every week. That’s why I try to carry 4 on all my teams unless I have 2 top tier QB’s. Delhomme has been down right horrible this year. Combine that with the fact that the Panthers should rush for 300 yards against the Buffalo sieve, I don’t like him to do much this week. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a TE at the flex spot. WR’s and TE’s are the most inconsistent positions and I feel they should never be used as a flex. I have finally made the move to bench Witten in favor of Celek in the 3 leagues I have both because Witten never seems to find the end zone. Instead, I’ll go with the best match-up and take Addai against the Rams. He’s been quietly having a good year. Despite the good match-up, I couldn’t start him over Turner or Ronnie Brown. So instead I’ll do the next best thing and put him at the OP spot. CHOICE: Addai
Cincinnati or Dallas?
Both teams are at home, which I always like in my defense. Both play teams that could potentially put up a lot of points. I’m going with the Bengals because the Bears have also been known to stink it up. The Falcons have too many weapons and with Ware not being 100%, I see them scoring at least 20 this week and winning outright. Cutler is prone to the turnover and Ryan rarely throws int’s. That’s why my CHOICE is Cincinnati.

Jim Beam
Marion Barber or Michael Bush?
Neither have a good match-up. Barber is banged up and the Raiders plain stink. Bush splits with Fargas and Barber has to share with both Choice and Felix as he should return this week. I can’t force myself to start a Raider for the 2nd time this year on my 20 teams (started Zach Miller in a few leagues last week because Dallas Clark was on bye). CHOICE: Barber

Monday, October 19

Manger Scorecard

It's time for the Monday Morning Armchair quarterback to point out what moves should have been made and which moves look great because they worked out.

Q-School Rum - which 2 rb's to start? Ryan Grant, Steve Slaton or Thomas Jones? Choice: Grant and Jones Grade: B

Everything happened that I thought. Jones tore up the weak Bills D. Packers blew out the Lions. Slaton had trouble running the ball, but made plays in the passing game. Unfortunately, Slaton found paydirt and Grant didn't. I got 9 less points by using Grant, but at least I had the best of the 3 in my lineup (Jones with 30+).

Johnny Walker - Need to pick up a 3rd WR since Calvin Johnson is hurt. My top options are Justin Gage, Andre Caldwell, Eddie Royal, Louis Murphy. Choice: Eddie Royal Grade: TBD

TBD as Royal plays tonight. None of the other 3 lit it up, so the move will be an A or B. Royal doesn't have to do much for it to be an A move. The other choices would have gotten me 0.0 (gage), 5.7 (caldwell) or 0.0 (murphy).

JagerMeister - Picking my 3 WR's from T.O., S.Holmes, N.Burleson, A.Boldin, S.Smith(NYG) Choice: Boldin, Smith and Burleson Grade: C

Only Holmes had a double digit performance with 10.4 pts and I didn't start him. T.O. was the lowest scorer and I correctly benched him. The extra 6.4 points I would have received for starting Holmes and benching Burleson probably wouldn't have gotten me another win for being in the top 5 so it only cost me some points on my season total.

PK - Ryan Longwell or Matt Prater? Choice: Longwell Grade: TBD

Prater plays tonight, but my decision looks good as Longwell scored 16.0 points.

Jose Cuervo - starting WR's between Roddy White, Nate Burleson, Braylon Edwards, Steve Smith(NYG) Choice: White, Smith and Edwards Grade: B+

White is the only player who scored double digits. Burleson tied Edwards for the lowest total with 4.0, so no matter which way I went I would have scored the same since White and Smith will start each week for me.

George Dickel - With a lot of players on bye, the only decision I have is #3 WR...M.Massaquoi or S.Rice? Choice: Massaquoi Grade: F

Rice more than doubled Massaquoi's output. The extra 9 points probably wouldn't have prevented my team from going 0-2 this week. I need a monster game out of Rivers tonight to squeak out 1 or 2 wins.

Jim Beam - #3 WR...Santana Moss or DeSean Jackson? Choice: DeSean Jackson Grade: B+

Jackson more than double'd Moss this week. Probably didn't make a difference in my final outcome. I would have won either way and the extra 5 points I gained with Jackson probably isn't what kept me in the top 5.

Jack Daniels - OP Carson Palmer or Mark Sanchez? Choice: Palmer Grade: A

Palmer was who I thought he'd be this week. Sanchez wasn't. Not only did Sanchez fail to find the end zone, but he also threw 5 picks and got a whopping .36 ponts. I still went 0-2, but it feels better to make the right guess.

Overall, I appear to have made correct decisions this week and got close to optimal scores out of the rosters I was given. A definite successful week from a managing standpoint. I still didn't have the greatest results as two of my teams are now all but eliminated from playoff contention with 3 weeks to go.

Sunday, October 18

Decisions Decisions Decisions

I sit here making my final run through the rosters for tomorrow's games. I'm having many of the same questions everyone else has on a weekly basis. I've decided to put my key lineup decisions in writing along with my reasoning. Maybe you'll have the same decisions to make? If I help just one owner make a good move, it's worth it. ;-)

Q-School Rum - which 2 rb's to start? Ryan Grant, Steve Slaton or Thomas Jones?
At the beginning of the year, you would say start Steve Slaton for sure and pick the 2nd choice based on match-ups. My feeling is that T. Jones is the automatic start because of his match-up with the pathetic Bills defense which gives up 4.7 ypc. Slaton has the toughest match-up, but he catches passes, so he'll get his yards against any defense. However, he's small and is not getting goal line carries, so I'm going with Grant as my 2nd rb. They Lions are giving up 4.9 ypc and I anticipate a Packer blowout so Grant will have plenty of scoring opportunities.

Johnny Walker - Need to pick up a 3rd WR since Calvin Johnson is hurt. My top options are Justin Gage, Andre Caldwell, Eddie Royal, Louis Murphy.

Gage is a #1 WR's but has a questionable QB throwing to him. Murphy has an offensive lineman throwing to him, so I did not consider him seriously. Caldwell is the 3rd or 4th receiver on Cincinnati so he has very little upside. Eddie Royal was invisible until last week. Is he back to his 2008 form or does he only perform when wearing brown and yellow socks? In the end, I went with Royal based on his upside and the fact that Denver and San Diego often have high scoring games. I'm also one of those owners who when all things are equal between players, I choose the one playing Monday night so I will always have hope in case I'm behind after Sunday.

JagerMeister - Picking my 3 WR's from T.O., S.Holmes, N.Burleson, A.Boldin, S.Smith(NYG)
The Bills offensive line is very offensive, thus their lack luster offensive numbers this year. For that reason, T.O. is riding pine this week. Boldin is a must start every week when he's healthy. Steve Smith has played himself into a must start role, although I did bench him last week anticipating few passes from the Giants along with having to deal with Asomugha. So now I'm down to the last spot between Burleson and Holmes. I went with Burleson who's the hot hand. It appears his back injury isn't going to keep him from playing. Pittsburgh has turned to more of a passing team, but Holmes really isn't a good fantasy WR unless you're in a distance TD league.

PK - Ryan Longwell or Matt Prater?
Prater has the stronger leg and is against the weaker defense. However, I like starting K's against good defenses because they will most likely have to settle for more FG's rather than score TD's. Longwell is in the dome, so he has ideal kicking conditions. Prater has the stronger leg so his upside is better. In the end, I went with Longwell because of his accuracy and the fact Baltimore has a very good defense.

Jose Cuervo - starting WR's between Roddy White, Nate Burleson, Braylon Edwards, Steve Smith(NYG)
Just when White was starting to lose his must start status, he busted out last week making him a must start this week. As stated before, Burleson is hot, but has some back issues. Edwards seemed at home last week in his first game with the Jets. His hands are still questionable, but his desire seems to be back. Steve Smith has earned must start status for me in all my leagues. So my biggest choice is the last spot between Edwards and Burleson. I'm going with Edwards as Cotchery is out and Sanchez seems to have a little man crush on Braylon.

George Dickel - With a lot of players on bye, the only decision I have is #3 WR...M.Massaquoi or S.Rice?
Rice had scored two of the last 3 weeks and has over 50 yards in all of them. He is showing off his skills now that the Queens finally have a QB that can throw. Massaquoi had one flash in the pan week and followed it up last week by making half of the Browns catches. Unfortunately, they only completed 2 passes. I'm going with my gut here and starting Massaquoi. He's the main guy in Cleveland and they won't be able to run the ball against Pittsburgh. The Queens still have many offensive weapons, so I don't have total faith in Rice.

Jim Beam - #3 WR...Santana Moss or DeSean Jackson?
Both are all or nothing WR's. Jackson was my top choice in pre-season to have a break out season and he hasn't disappointed. Both teams face weaker opponents (Moss vs KC, DJ vs Oak). Oakland is pathetic, so I leaned towards Moss figuring Philly wouldn't throw much. But who am I kidding? It's Philly and they always throw. Andy Reid doesn't know how to call 30 running plays in a game. My choice is DeSean Jackson.

Jack Daniels - OP Carson Palmer or Mark Sanchez?
I'm not a fan of rookie QB's, but Sanchez has become a respectable fantasy QB. I anticipate a Jets rout, so Sanchez should have a few TD's. Palmer faces a mediocre Texans defense, and this game could be a shootout. I'm going with Palmer because he will get many more yards than Sanchez, so if he matches the 2 or 3 TD's I anticipate out of Sanchez, I'll have made the right move.

Each week, I'll try to take the time to list the lineup decisions I go through on my 7 FFOC teams. It's always easy on Tuesday to say "I knew Justin Gage would have a big game and Steve Smith (Car) would do nothing so I started Gage and benched Smith". I'm letting people know my first guesses and on Tuesday we can see if my thoughts were right on or way off. Let's hope more are right on.

Good luck!