Monday, January 4

What could have been

I went through the week 16 rosters for the final 15 before I went to Vegas and made note of the line ups I would have started. Here's a list of some key performances and tough roster moves that each of the 15 made and how it affected the final standings.

Goonggoong29 ($1,000,000) - carried by McNabb and Chris Johnson. I would have started Stewart instead of LT because Tennessee is very good against the run and LT doesn't get the touches he used to, but LT came through with 2 TDs helping them to the million dollar first prize.

Beasts II ($100,000) - Adrian Peterson carried them to a late surge and Chris was one long TD run away from surpassing Detsinh. Made a great call by starting the Bengals DST (9 pts) against KC rather than the Giants (-6) against Carolina. If he would have started the Giants as I would have, he would have finished 6th and lost $95,000. It's also to be noted that Chris had the high week 16 score of the final 15 with 147.98.

Liquid HIppos ($40,000) - Jumped up 5 spots thanks to Peterson's big 2nd half Monday. I don't see any tough line up decisions he had. He started Vernon Davis at TE over Dallas Clark just as he had the previous 3 weeks, which was the smart move since nobody knew how long Indy's starters would play. Greg earned an extra $20,000 with the Bears getting a TD in OT versus a FG since NYTCxpress had the Vikings DST.

NYTCxpress ($20,000) - As stated above, Don ran into tough luck with the Vikings defense giving up a TD instead of a FG in OT which cost him 3 points and $20,000. However, Don was in this position by making some of the best lineup decisions in the field. He started Brent Celek (20.10 pt) over Dallas Clark (5.7) and Beanie Wells (15.30) at OP over Peyton Manning (7.68). He obviously felt that the Colts wouldn't play their starters more than one half. Don was let down by his receivers who scored a combined 18.7 pts. He had 2 wr's on the bench (Mason and Smith-nyg) who scored over 20 pts combined. I would have started Walker, Ocho Cinco and Miles as he did, but I couldn't argue using one of the other 2 receivers in place of Walker.

Pigskin McChickenz ($10,000) - They moved up one spot thanks to the last second Sidney Rice TD. This doubled their winnings and set them up to move up even higher. This offsets some of their bad luck from the noon game where Ricky Williams missed half the game with a shoulder injury while his replacement scored twice and racked up 90+ yards. They also were the only owners of Matt Schaub who scored 20 points in the first half and only .14 points in the second half. I feel Jerry's pain as I had Schaub in the Bellagio Bracket.

willboski3 ($5,000) - After a good start out of CJ on Thursday, Will was in position to win the million. He trailed only Goonggoong29 and the wheels were spinning in his head. When I talked to him on Friday, he had the right attitude....he was going to go for the million and didn't care if line up decisions back fired and made him finish 10th. Since he had many similar starters to Detsinh, he planned on putting Ward(3.7) or Mason(7.7) in for DeSean Jackson (9.0) and Indy DST (-2) for Philly (4). I also suggested Larry Johnson (1.1) for Moats (6.2) as I anticipated the Bengals winning easily and giving LJ a chance to get back at his former team. In the end, he only did the defensive change, which ultimately cost him 6 points and $35,000. It's easy to say now that you should just play your best players regardless, but he definitely needed to do something if he were to catch Detsinh. I'm the gambling type, so I admire someone who uses all their bullets and goes for it all rather than someone who plays cautious and concedes the top prize to try and settle for 3rd or 4th. Will...it's too bad you were unable to join us in Vegas because of your job. It would have been fun talking to you more about your decisions. Sounds like you had a great time back home with your friends watching the games. Too bad it didn't work out better for you.

w's marauders ($4,250) - no line up decisions that I see and nobody involved in the Monday night frantic finish to affect their standings

dream machine viii ($4,000) - Like Chris, Ron anticipated the Colts benching their starters so he sat Reggie Wayne (3.3). The decision was made easier by the fact he would have Darrel Revis guarding him when he did play. His replacement (Ward) only scored 3.7, but it was the smart move. He also had Donald Driver (3.3) as an option. I would have started Ward as well. Ron hit heartbreak in the early game when Derrick Mason dropped a wide open TD as he started Flacco. This extra 4+ points would have moved him up 1 more spot. The good news is that it would only have been an extra $250, so that helps lessen the pain.

Billy B's boys ($3,700) - Tytus decided to go with Peyton Manning. Probably going for the home run rather than play it safe. His other option was David Garrard, who's match up I liked. The extra 4.72 points that Garrard scored would have moved him up 2 spots for an extra $500. Had Peyton played the entire game, he surely would have outscored Garrard. I admire him going for it all, just as Will did with his team.

Skyt 2 hottie ($3,400) - In Scottie's case, I agree with starting Peyton Manning as his only other option was Mark Sanchez. Sanchez out scored Manning by .56, but I would never recommend starting Sanchez. Adrian Peterson helped move scottie up a few spots on Monday night.

shot caller10 ($3,000) - Only real lineup decision was Fred Davis or Brent Celek at TE. I would have gone with Davis as well since he's been hot. Both are good options and you couldn't fault him going either way. Had he started Celek, Matt would have vaulted up to 6th place and gained an extra $2000.

party @rapiddraft.com ($2,750) - Moved up 1 spot thanks to the Sidney Rice TD at the end of regulation. He also played Peyton Manning, but had no other QB's and would of had to put Moreno at OP. Playing Moreno would have moved him up a few spots and an extra $1,000, but I wouldn't have done it either.

The eraser ($2,500) - Dan went with his Colts (Wayne and Clark) where as I would have started Harvin and Finley. He also had Mason and Collie as an option at WR. Going with Finley and one of the other receivers would have moved Dan up 2 spots earning an extra $500.

boom goes my dynamite ($2,250) - Made a great move by starting Jonathan Stewart and his 20+ points. His other option was Jamal Charles. Unfortunately, even though he carried 3 defenses, John had terrible match ups with all of them. He went with Tennessee who had been playing well and was at home. I probably would have done the same, but they had -4. His other options were Chicago (5) vs Minnesota and Seattle (-9) at Green Bay.

Chateau 1 ($2,000) - Had a unique line up and I liked his chances to finish in the top 3. Ricky Williams getting hurt didn't help his cause nor did Minnesota's -3 on Monday night. His other defenses were at home with decent match ups (phil and Cin). Ron would have finished 9th if he started Philly and 7th if he went with Cincinnati. I would have gone with Philly, but I understand the Minnesota play. Cutler had been a turnover machine up until week 16.

Great job by all 14 owners to make it this far. I'm sure they had much tougher decisions in other weeks in which they made the right moves. You can have a great team, yet still make wrong moves and leave plenty of points on the bench. Fortunately, I don't see any tough decisions that ended up costing someone thousands of dollars. Fantasy football owners need short term memory just like NFL cornerbacks. If you always think about the move you could have made, you won't think clearly on your next move and it could cost you dearly.

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