I have 6 teams in the Stanima contest this year, and going into week 8, I had 5 teams with a good chance of making the top 3 and 1 team that was still in the hunt only 2 games back. However, week 8 was a major blow to my teams. Partially because I have Aaron Rodgers on 3 of them and he was on bye. Running back injuries have hit me as well. As much as I worry about making the top 3, you really want to be in the top 2 so you have a chance to win the league playoffs in week 10 and the $250 price. Here are my current playoff scenarios for Sunday:
Jose Cuervo, league #126 - Currently 2nd place at 13-3
Two teams are just 1 game behind me, but they are both at least 60 points behind me (first tie breaker is points scored). As long as I get 1 win this week, I should remain in first or second and make the championship. The bad news is I play against Lugnuts, the first place team. He has Stafford and Best on bye, so that helps. It's possible I can fall out of the top 3 if I go 0-2 and both teams behind me go 2-0. I have some very bad match ups and Calvin Johnson on bye. I will need Forte to carry me as he's up against the shotty Eagles run defense.
Jack Daniels, league 141- Currently 6th place at 8-8
This team took a bad 0-2 last week. I needed 12 points out of Dwayne Bowe on Monday night, and it would have been a 2-0 week and I'd be in 3rd place. Now I need a miracle. I have to go 2-0 while 2 other teams need to go 0-2 and a third team can't go 2-0. With all that, I also have to gain 50 points on 2 of the teams. My best chance is to make one of the 25 wildcard spots (based on points). Currently 5th place is 943, and this team is at 921. I can't say I like my matchups enough to get a 130+ point week.
Jim Beam, league 155 - Currently 1st place at 12-4
My only team that is virtually locked into the cut line bracket. I have a 2 game lead on 3rd thru 5th, but even if I go 0-2 and 2 of those teams go 2-0, I have a 100+ point lead on them in points. Only one of the teams behind me is within 70 pts, so I should be in the league championship week 10. The odds of me not making the championship are about the same odds the Cardinals had of winning the world series about a month ago.
Jameson, league 156 - Currently 3rd place at 9-7
This team was a virtual lock until an 0-2, 80 point week now makes it interesting. I dropped from first to 3rd, so I not only have to work to make the championship, but also to stay in the top 3 to make the cutline. Three other teams are tied with me at 9-7, but I have them all by 60 points, so I control my own destiny. The top 2 teams are 1 and 2 games ahead of me, and they play each other. I have more points than them, so a 2-0 week should get me into the championship game. I play one of the other 9-7 teams, so if I can go at least 1-1, the other 2 9-7 teams will have to go 2-0 to knock me out. I'd say my chances are 70% since I have ARodge against the Boltz and Forte against Philly.
Brewers 5 Scrubs 2 (phone draft), league 162 7th place, 7-9
Mathematically eliminated from the top 3 in my league, so I need points. I'm currently 12 points away from a wildcard spot. With Rodgers back this week, I have a decent chance. I also have Schaub at home against Cleveland. There's a chance teams currently above me in the wildcard chase will move into the top 3 in their league, so I can also move up without gaining points. The opposite is true as well...I may lose ground by teams with more points falling out of the top 3 and joining the wildcard field.
Red Stag, league 169 - 5th place 9-7
Another one of my teams in good shape that took an 0-2 week. This team is locked out of the top 3 and with only 909 points, a wildcard is unlikely. This team has almost no chance of making the cut line bracket.
Last week, I was hoping to get 5 of the 6 teams in. Now 2 have very little chance and 2 are pretty solid locks to get in. Looks like at best, I can get 4 in, but most likely it will be 2 or 3. I'll be in San Diego cheering on Aaron Rodgers in person, so hopefully that karma lets him have another one of his monster weeks to carry my teams in the playoffs!
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