Draft Strategy

I've been playing Fantasy Football for two decades and though I don't claim to be an expert, my drafting style has won me more money than it has lost. That's all you can ask for, right?

My two main philosophies are:
1> Take the best player available, regardless of position, for the first 8-9 rounds. You can always fill your depth charts and cover bye weeks with your last handful of picks.
The object is to score the most points each week. Therefore, I want to pick the player who will score me the most points. Sounds simple doesn't it? Some people get too caught up in wanting to take a QB before round 4 or not selecting 3 RB's in a row. If RB's are flying off the board and I don't have any RB's, I will not panic and take a James Stewart or Darren McFadden over a top WR like Reggie Wayne or Steve Smith. Granted, the RB selection will be very thin, but why reach and take a RB a few rounds too early when you can get a quality WR who dropped in the draft because everyone chose to take RB's?
2> Be sure to know your scoring system and league rules, and rank the players accordingly
I typically don't take QB's high in the draft because it's the position that has the highest position of injuries/benchings. Even the lower tier QB's typically throw for 200 yds in a game with at least one TD. There are usually only 3 or 4 elite QB's and the rest can be hit or miss each week. RB's and WR's are more consistent and the gap between the good ones and average ones is much greater than the QB position. However, in leagues that offer 6 pts for a TD pass or the FFOC which allows you to start 2 QB's, I will value QB's much more. Most QB's will throw for 16-25 TD's...that more TD's than a stud RB or WR will get you. If a league is PPR, then the RB's who catch a lot of passes (Forte and Westbrook) become much more valuable than the typical top picks (ADP and Turner). One of the biggest variances is kicker and defense scoring. In leagues where a kicker just gets 3 for a FG and 1 for a PAT, I won't take a kicker til my last 2 picks, because they are all basically the same. If you get big bonuses for 50+ yd FG's, then don't take a guy like Jay Feely or Matt Stover who rarely attempt long FG's. But a guy like Jason Hanson or Sebastian Janikowski become much more valuable. For defenses, leagues that reward teams based on points allowed creates a different ranking for leagues that go by yards allowed. In general, the less yards you give up, the less points you're going to give up, but some teams don't follow this pattern at all. For instance, Minnesota and Dallas didn't give up a lot of yards, but their PPG was average or worse. Atlanta and SD gave up a lot of yards, but not many points.

Those are my two main draft strategies. Here are a few other philosophies I go by...right, wrong or indifferent.

- Don't worry about bye weeks unless looking at a 2nd QB or 2nd kicker/Def. So what if your top 4 players have a bye week 7? That's just one week and it means you're at full strength every other week while other teams will be missing players.
- If possible, get a QB-WR/TE combo from the same team. Yes, this can work against you too. Don't reach on a player just to get a mathing combo, but after round 6, most WR's are the same, so try to pair up one of your QB's with their receiver/TE.
- If you draft an injury prone RB (S.Jackson, W.Parker, B.Westbrook), be sure to handcuff them to their backup. Sometimes I'll take the backup a few rounds early, just to be sure I get the handcuff. Once you get to round 7, many of the players are the same talent level, so it won't really hurt you to reach for a backup RB.
- Avoid high risk players. Guys who have a tendency to miss 2+ games each year are to be avoided. I'd rather have a steady player who never gets hurt compared to a guy with more upside, who often misses games due to injury
- Draft players from high scoring teams and avoid players on the 3 or 4 teams you think will be terrible. This year, my teams to avoid are Oakland, Detroit and St Louis. The teams I feel will score a lot are New Orleans, New England, Green Bay and possibly Kansas City.
- When you get to the mid-point of the draft when all the receivers are the same and the RB's are reduced to the backups, don't be afraid to be the first person to take a kicker or defense. If you get the best person/team at that position, you're getting an advantage over your opponents. Same goes for rounds 4 or 5 and tight ends. Once the elite RB's and WR's are gone, I will take a Tony Gonzalez or Jason Witten to get an advantage over my opponent most weeks.
- Avoid rookie WR's and QB's, value rookie RB's. The track record shows that very few rookie QB's or WR's have had success in the league. QB's need to catch up to the speed of the game and WR's need to learn how to run proper routes as they can no longer just rely on their speed and athleticism. Rookie running backs often have success, because their legs are still fresh and they have the burst needed to get through holes quickly. In the last 20 years, the rookie of the year has been a RB 15 times, WR twice and QB 3 times.
- Be aware of off season moves, both by players and coaches. If a team goes from a pass-happy coach to a defensive minded coach, value the rb's a little more and downgrade the QB/WR's. Same goes for a productive WR who goes from a pass first team to a team that doesn't throw as much. It's common sense that teams that throw the ball 65% of the team is worth getting QB's/WR's from. The opposite is true for a team that runs the ball 60% of the time.
- Always trust your instinct. I rarely look at player rankings at other sites. I watch enough football to know which players can play and which ones can't. If you think Marshawn Lynch will have a bad year because of his suspension and taking a while to get into football shape, then don't take him even though some other 'expert' says he's the 10th rated RB and he's still available in round 5. If you think D'Angelo Williams had a big year due to weak competition and won't have the same success this year, then rank him accordingly.

I'm sure I have other rules of thumb that I forgot to mention, but I've rambled on long enough. These philosophies have worked for me and hopefully they can help you. Every drafter has their own theories, and that's fine. These are my personal draft guidelines so if you don't like them, don't use them. Be your own person!