I sit here making my final run through the rosters for tomorrow's games. I'm having many of the same questions everyone else has on a weekly basis. I've decided to put my key lineup decisions in writing along with my reasoning. Maybe you'll have the same decisions to make? If I help just one owner make a good move, it's worth it. ;-)
Q-School Rum - which 2 rb's to start? Ryan Grant, Steve Slaton or Thomas Jones?
At the beginning of the year, you would say start Steve Slaton for sure and pick the 2nd choice based on match-ups. My feeling is that T. Jones is the automatic start because of his match-up with the pathetic Bills defense which gives up 4.7 ypc. Slaton has the toughest match-up, but he catches passes, so he'll get his yards against any defense. However, he's small and is not getting goal line carries, so I'm going with Grant as my 2nd rb. They Lions are giving up 4.9 ypc and I anticipate a Packer blowout so Grant will have plenty of scoring opportunities.
Johnny Walker - Need to pick up a 3rd WR since Calvin Johnson is hurt. My top options are Justin Gage, Andre Caldwell, Eddie Royal, Louis Murphy.
Gage is a #1 WR's but has a questionable QB throwing to him. Murphy has an offensive lineman throwing to him, so I did not consider him seriously. Caldwell is the 3rd or 4th receiver on Cincinnati so he has very little upside. Eddie Royal was invisible until last week. Is he back to his 2008 form or does he only perform when wearing brown and yellow socks? In the end, I went with Royal based on his upside and the fact that Denver and San Diego often have high scoring games. I'm also one of those owners who when all things are equal between players, I choose the one playing Monday night so I will always have hope in case I'm behind after Sunday.
JagerMeister - Picking my 3 WR's from T.O., S.Holmes, N.Burleson, A.Boldin, S.Smith(NYG)
The Bills offensive line is very offensive, thus their lack luster offensive numbers this year. For that reason, T.O. is riding pine this week. Boldin is a must start every week when he's healthy. Steve Smith has played himself into a must start role, although I did bench him last week anticipating few passes from the Giants along with having to deal with Asomugha. So now I'm down to the last spot between Burleson and Holmes. I went with Burleson who's the hot hand. It appears his back injury isn't going to keep him from playing. Pittsburgh has turned to more of a passing team, but Holmes really isn't a good fantasy WR unless you're in a distance TD league.
PK - Ryan Longwell or Matt Prater?
Prater has the stronger leg and is against the weaker defense. However, I like starting K's against good defenses because they will most likely have to settle for more FG's rather than score TD's. Longwell is in the dome, so he has ideal kicking conditions. Prater has the stronger leg so his upside is better. In the end, I went with Longwell because of his accuracy and the fact Baltimore has a very good defense.
Jose Cuervo - starting WR's between Roddy White, Nate Burleson, Braylon Edwards, Steve Smith(NYG)
Just when White was starting to lose his must start status, he busted out last week making him a must start this week. As stated before, Burleson is hot, but has some back issues. Edwards seemed at home last week in his first game with the Jets. His hands are still questionable, but his desire seems to be back. Steve Smith has earned must start status for me in all my leagues. So my biggest choice is the last spot between Edwards and Burleson. I'm going with Edwards as Cotchery is out and Sanchez seems to have a little man crush on Braylon.
George Dickel - With a lot of players on bye, the only decision I have is #3 WR...M.Massaquoi or S.Rice?
Rice had scored two of the last 3 weeks and has over 50 yards in all of them. He is showing off his skills now that the Queens finally have a QB that can throw. Massaquoi had one flash in the pan week and followed it up last week by making half of the Browns catches. Unfortunately, they only completed 2 passes. I'm going with my gut here and starting Massaquoi. He's the main guy in Cleveland and they won't be able to run the ball against Pittsburgh. The Queens still have many offensive weapons, so I don't have total faith in Rice.
Jim Beam - #3 WR...Santana Moss or DeSean Jackson?
Both are all or nothing WR's. Jackson was my top choice in pre-season to have a break out season and he hasn't disappointed. Both teams face weaker opponents (Moss vs KC, DJ vs Oak). Oakland is pathetic, so I leaned towards Moss figuring Philly wouldn't throw much. But who am I kidding? It's Philly and they always throw. Andy Reid doesn't know how to call 30 running plays in a game. My choice is DeSean Jackson.
Jack Daniels - OP Carson Palmer or Mark Sanchez?
I'm not a fan of rookie QB's, but Sanchez has become a respectable fantasy QB. I anticipate a Jets rout, so Sanchez should have a few TD's. Palmer faces a mediocre Texans defense, and this game could be a shootout. I'm going with Palmer because he will get many more yards than Sanchez, so if he matches the 2 or 3 TD's I anticipate out of Sanchez, I'll have made the right move.
Each week, I'll try to take the time to list the lineup decisions I go through on my 7 FFOC teams. It's always easy on Tuesday to say "I knew Justin Gage would have a big game and Steve Smith (Car) would do nothing so I started Gage and benched Smith". I'm letting people know my first guesses and on Tuesday we can see if my thoughts were right on or way off. Let's hope more are right on.
Good luck!
Sunday, October 18
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