Pre-season break outs and busts

Many people want to keep their draft strategies and sleepers a secret so they can get the players they want at a bargain price. This year, I am going to spill the beans before the season. Why? Maybe it's to show how smart I am? Maybe it's a smoke screen to throw off my fellow drafters? Maybe I just love talking fantasy football? Below I will list some lower tier players that I think could have big years and bust years.

QB - Unless a league allows 6 pts for passing TD, I will typically wait til rounds 6-9 to get my QB. Quarterbacks get hurt so often, that for me, it's an interchangeable part. You can draft 3 mediocre qb's and play match up with them and get decent point totals each week.
The second-third tier qb's I like this year are :
Sam Bradford - has a year under his belt and he showed me he's a leader. Confidence is what all the good qb's have
Alex Smith - Many will think I'm crazy. However, I love Jim Harbaugh and his offensive creativity. That combined with the talent of Bralyon Edwards, Michael Crabtree, and Vernon Davis makes me believe that Alex Smith can have some productive weeks. I wait to get him near the end of the draft as my 3rd qb because their offensive line is scary bad.
Jay Cutler - Mike Martz has a complex offense, and Cutler should have a good grasp of it this year. He also has something to prove after the way last season ended. Hanie has been horrible in camp, so I think Cutler's job is safe. A great defense will give him plenty of scoring chances.

Here are the guys I will not take in a draft:
Jason Campbell - Oakland Raiders..enough said
Chad Henne - has not showed me anything as a starter
Kyle Orton - I like him as a QB, but the Bronco offense will be 180 degrees different under John Fox than Josh McDaniel. Limited throwing opportunities will hurt Orton's status.

RB's - This position has become less valuable in drafts because so many teams share the carries. Also, some have gone to goalline vultures  which hurt the value of good backs who get plenty of yards, but no td's.

Fred Jackson - always a personal favorite of mine. He and Jerome Harrison are talented backs that don't often get regular touches. Spiller didn't play much last year, so I feel confident that FJax will get the touches he needs to be a good rb3 or even rb2

Felix Jones - no question about his talent. He's just had trouble staying on the field. The return of Romo should take the pressure off the run game and give him more draws and screens where he can use his speed for big plays
Jahvid Best - He came on at the end of last season. Still running behind a weak o-line, but his pass catching ability gives him plenty of quality touches. The injury to Loshoure helps tremendously.
Knowshown Moreno - In his first few years, he was on my don't draft list. This year, I've drafted him in every league around the 5th-6th round. As stated above, with Fox as head coach, the Broncos will be a heavy running team. Only question is if Knowshown can stay on the field.

Guys I won't be drafting:

BJGE - the lawfirm had a great second half. However, Bellichek doesn't like to run much, and not since Curtis Martin, have they had a back get consistent touches
Steven Jackson - he continues to take a pounding year after year, and his numbers keep going down. He's still productive, but not worth a top 30 pick, which is where he still seems to get drafted.
Mark Ingram - He's been going surprisingly high in most drafts. I know the Saints score a lot of point and Pierre Thomas is still battling a foot injury. However, Ingram couldn't handle the full work load at Alabama, so I don't know why people think he will in the NFL. He's a very good running back, but I don't see the touches and endurance for him to be worth a 7th-8th round pick.

That's enough for now. If I have time tomorrow, I'll do a write up on WR's and TE's. Kickers and Defenses aren't worth writing about.