When the FFOC was created 4 years ago, I noticed that you could use a qb as a flex position. For this reason, I employed a draft strategy of getting at least 2 good qb's in the first 5 or 6 rounds. Most drafters stuck to the traditional rb heavy drafting early. I had good success in the few years of the FFOC, but it was because of getting good qb's late. One year, it was Kurt Warner in round 18 when Leinart was slated to be Arizona's qb. The next few years, it was Aaron Rodgers in the middle rounds as people didn't see the star potential in him that I did.
Now that the contest has evolved into Stanima fantasy sports ( www.stanima.com ), the rules have stayed the same, but the contest name and the drafting strategy has changed. Now it's a qb heavy draft. Typically, after the first tier and some second tier qb's are taken, then the top rb's and wr's start going. Unless I get Brady, Rodgers or Brees, I typically shy away the qb spot until at least round 3. However in the league 126 draft tonight, I got caught at the end of runs and didn't take a qb til round 9! Most will say I'm insane, but I still believe I have a legit chance to finish in the top 3. Here are my thoughts leading up to not getting a qb til round 9...
Round 1: I had the 4th pick, and it was mentioned in my draft on Friday that this was a tough spot to draft from. I don't believe any spot is a tough spot, but they may have a point. The top 3 picks were standard (brady, rodgers, vick). Although Brees is one of the stud qb's you can count on, I had little hesitation in taking ray rice. He was one of the leading yardage backs last year, and it looks like Harbaugh will let him get his TD's this year, so he could have a very special fantasy season.
Round 2: by my pick #17, 8 qb's were already off the board, which meant all my tier 1 qb's were gone. The position players were still loaded, so I went with Calvin Johnson. Pretty solid start with Rice and Megatron. Should be a good draft!
Round 3: No more qb's went off the board. My highest rated qb was matt stafford, who would look good with Calvin. However, with his injury history, I decided to get another strong position player (rb/wr), since some tier 1 guys were still available. However, I wasn't sure which direction I wanted to go. At RB, I had a choice from Steven Jackson, Hillis, Forte, or Gore. At WR, Nicks, DJax, Wallace, Jennings and Bowe were still on the board. I was leaning towards Nicks, but in the end, I went with Forte because I read a chicago blog today saying how Lovie must have gotten through to Martz that they need to run the ball more to protect the qb. Forte has been a beast in the preseason. Of all my picks this draft, this is the one that I like least, but have to live with it.
Round 4: Between my pick #24 and #37, another qb run went off eating up all my tier 2 qb's. Roethlisberger, Stafford, Bradford, Ryan and Freeman all went. Now my top rated qb was Eli Manning...not good. Rather than scramble and take him so I had one half decent qb, I went with Dwayne Bowe, who I rank as a tier 1 WR. With this core, I figure that as long as I get a few steady qb's that won't get me a negative week, I should still be OK.
Round 5: Kolb and Eli went off the board, so now Joe Flacco was my top rated qb still available. I thought about starting a TE run and taking Witten here. My top WR's on the board were Mike Williams, Percy Harvin and Dez Bryant. Instead, I went with a 3rd potential stud rb. The way QB's are flying off the board, I may need to start 3 rb's rather than a Chad Henne or Jason Campbell. I went with Mark Ingram. He's a player that I've warmed up to since the start of the drafts. The Saints are a high powered offense, and he could get 15+ td's. I doubt he'll get close to 1100 yds rushing, but he could be a steady 7-15 pts each week.
My other rb choices were Jahvid Best, Shonn Greene, and D'Angelo Williams.
Round 6: A tight end run almost started between my last pick and now as Witten and Gates went in round 5. I was beginning to wish I had taken Witten, but I like a lot of TE's, and my 2nd rated TE, Jermichael Finley, was still on the board, so I grabbed him here.
Round 7: Flacco went off the board, so now Matt Cassell was my top rated (mainly because I had Bowe). At this point, almost everyone had 2 qb's, so I wasn't worried that QB's would start getting drafted. I wanted to continue building my RB/WR depth, to not only strengthen my team, but also to make other teams thin that concentrated on qb's early. I went with the explosiveness and upside of Percy Harvin over the steady play of Welker or Boldin. It could also set up for a McNabb-Harvin combo, but I will never take McNabb. He's a good leader, but not a good qb.
Round 8: At this point, I started kicking myself for not taking Stafford in round 3. Cassell was still on the board and I planned on taking him. However, with only 6 picks before my next pick and the 3 teams drafting those picks all had 2 qb's and only one had a TE so I took Jimmy Graham as my 2nd TE. In a way it's a wasted pick, but I think he could be a top 3 TE this year and Finley is still nothing more than potential as he only made it through 5 games last year. Now I should be assured of having a good TE each week and it makes the other teams have to go one rung lower on their TE list. Especially good for bye weeks.
Round 9: I took Graham ahead of Zebb, so Zebb fired back and took Matt Cassell ahead of me. Although I don't think very highly of any of the qb's left (sanchez, mcnabb, mccoy, garrard, campbell, beck, newton, hasselbeck), Sanchez is a guy who should keep his job all year and he has enough weapons to put up steady points. I caved in and finally took a QB (Sanchez) in round 9! He won't get many yards, but as long as he can get 200 yds and a TD or two each week, I'll be happy to let my rbs and wrs carry me.
Round 10: Since Percy hasn't been the healthiest of players, I wanted to get another solid WR as they started coming off the board. Unfortunately, the 2 guys I targeted (Garcon and S.Rice) went right ahead of me. I decided to go for some upside and take AJ Green. I think Dalton will be a decent NFL qb, just not this year. However, Cincy will be so bad that they have to throw and Green is their only good target to throw to.
Round 11: Since I am behind in QB's, I thought about getting ahead in all other categories by going early on a defense and kicker. I almost pulled the trigger on the Packers defense this round, but I went for another potential big play guy in CJ Spiller. With 3 solid rb's, I planned on taking their backups as my other 3 rb picks, but Spiller's upside could be much better than Marion Barber if Forte goes down.
Round 12: Four defenses went off the board as well as Orton, McCoy and Newton. I had targeted Newton as my #2 qb as he should get his share of rushing yards to balance out his stat sheet. McCoy is another qb I like, but his lack of wr's prevents me from taking him too early. I decided to get my 2nd qb here with Ryan Fitzpatrick. He had some big weeks last year, so I was actually quite happy to get him. I no longer feel so bad about my QB's. They aren't big names, but they should keep their jobs and put up steady numbers.
Round 13: McNabb and Garrard were taken in the 6 picks between as well as Pierre Thomas, who was going to be my next pick. The defenses left on the board are teams that I was able to get in the last few rounds of other drafts, and it was too early for me to go with a kicker, so I at least got one handcuff with the pick of Marion Barber. I thought about James Starks because I like his upside, but Grant appears healthy so I decided to pass on Starks and play safe.
Round 14: Not much to choose from at this point unless I wanted a 3rd TE. Still too early for me to take a kicker, so I went with the Bears defense. They have a very good defense, but with the new kickoff rule, Hester will get less touches making the Bears less appealing. I also don't like the fact that Green Bay and Detroit are in the division. The Dolphins are the main D I like this year and they are always on the board late, so I can sit the Bears against the high powered offenses of Green Bay and Detroit.
Round 15: I planned on taking Seabass here, but with only 2 kickers off the board, I went with Derrick Ward. As good as Ben Tate has been, the Texans still like Ward even more and with Fosters nagging hamstring, I figured Ward may help me win a week or two.
Round 16: Seabass went right ahead of me, so I settled for Alex Henery. I like this because I have Seabass in most leagues and this is the first time I've been able to get Henery.
Round 17 - 19: nobody really cares about the end of the draft. It's slim pickings and most teams are getting their K's and D's
Round 20: Still sitting at only 2 qb's. Anyone I don't take, will always be on the free agent list to bid on. However, I had no other WR or def I wanted. I thought about taking Carson Palmer for his upside in case he signs. I also thought about Vince Young or Shaun Hill since Vick and Stafford are bound to get hurt and those backups have a better chance than the stiffs left (Beck, Smith, Dalton, Henne). I went with Smith, because despite their love for Kaepernick, I like his upside with Harbaugh running the offense and big receivers in edwards and crabtree.
In the end, my team shapes out like this:
qb: sanchez, fitzpatrick, smith
rb: rice, forte, ingram, spiller, barber, d.ward
wr: ca. johnson, bowe, harvin, aj green, gaffney
te: finley, graham
k: henery, j.brown
def: chicago, miami
Should be solid enough for a top 3. I need Forte or Ingram to be a top 10 rb. I always tell myself going into a draft to load up on RB/WR and stay patient by taking qb's late. I finally did it and we'll see how it turns out. In my other draft reviews, I've liked teams that did this, however they got at least one second tier qb in round 5 or 6. Never have I seen someone wait til round 9!
Sunday, August 28
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