Vegas bracket odds...hot off the Bellagio presses

Five days, 16 games, 15 teams, and over a million dollars. That's what is on the line for week 16 of the FFOC. For the first time, the standings will be determined on a FFOC formula, not solely by the week 16 point total. Currently first and 15th are separated by 25.98 points. Three teams are within 10 points of the leader. As the number of teams go down each week, the separation between the first and second place weekly total has increased (1,7,12,15), so it wouldn't totally surprise me if Skowman goes from worst to first, but it will take one heck of a week by his unique players.
The final 15 rosters aren't as similar as I anticipated they would be. The most common players are Tony Gonzalez (10) and Aaron Rodgers (7). The only other players on at least 1/3 of the teams are Drew Brees (5), Ryan Torain (6), NY Jets (6), Andre Johnson (6), Calvin Johnson (5), Larry Fitzgerald (5), D'Angelo Williams (5), Chris Johnson (5), Michael Turner (5), Jason Elam (6) and Kris Brown (5).
The winner is going to be the person with the most unique players that have a big week and avoids having a common player who has a down week. Of the key players in the final 15, I like some of the match ups a lot and some I don't like at all. Here's my opinion on the key match-ups:

Very favorable match-ups...could help a team make up a lot of ground
- Steve Slaton (4 teams) - Oakland gives up over 5 yards per carry and hasn't shown any improvement lately. Even Sammy Morris rushed for 135 against them last week. Combine a poor run defense with a very good pass defense and I see a huge day for Steve Slaton. Possibly 35+ points.
- Steven Jackson (3) - He appears to be getting back to full health and last week he got the 20+ carries he is used to getting. On a terrible team in a terrible game, look for Steven Jackson to carry to work load as he is their only hope at winning this game.
- Drew Brees (5) - New Orleans should have no problem scoring points. The only question is will Brees throw for all of the TD's? Will Pierre Thomas run them in? Will they split up the TD's? Either way, they should rack up a lot of yards and someone will be getting TD's.
- Pierre Thomas (2) - Could be the key to the million dollars as only 2 owners have him. He came up big for them last week with a 30+ point game. There's no question he can do it again this week against Detroit.
- Aaron Rodgers (7) - won't be as much of an impact player since half the teams have him. However, he will be solid as always against the weak secondary of Chicago. The weather doesn't worry me and I think Chicago will grab an early lead meaning Green Bay may abandon the run earlier than normal.
- Matt Forte (3) - I predicted a big day for MJD against Green Bay's banged up defense and they pretty much shut him down. He did manage 2 td's to make it a productive fantasy week. I don't see any way Green Bay keeps Forte under 100 yards and they've given up a lot of rushing TD's the past 3 weeks. Forte could be the one providing this weeks Monday night miracle just as Slaton and Williams did weeks 13 and 14.
- Calvin Johnson (5) - He seems to score every week. Now that Orlovsky is healthy, the Lions have a valid passing attack. New Orleans doesn't play a lot of defense on the road so I look for Johnson to rack up a lot of garbage yards and at least one score.
- Roddy White (2) - Another player who could be the MVP this week. Minnesota should limit Turner's effectiveness leaving it up to Ryan and White to beat them. Their mediocre secondary did well against Arizona's potent pass offense last week, but I think that was more the exception than the rule since they had a 14-0 lead in a matter of minutes.

Players who have been studs, but could be duds...

- Tony Romo (1) - Hard to expect much from a qb playing against Pittsburgh or Baltimore
- Chris Johnson (5) - the combination of splitting carries and facing a very tough defense would make me hesitate to start Chris Johnson if I had another decent option. His best chance for success is to get involved in the passing game
- Kurt Warner (3) - He has a lot of things going against him. Traveling cross country, possible high winds and cold weather, and a game that means very little to Arizona. But even a bad day for him is still 12 points.
- D'Angelo Williams (5) - The Giants have been doing very well against the run lately. Williams had the benefit of facing some weak defenses the past 3 or 4 weeks. I saw a few teams who I think should bench him
- Andre Johnson (6) - I don't think he'll be a total bust, but with Asomugha on the other side and the inability for Oakland to stop the run, I don't think he'll get more than 6 or 7 points this week. He's too good to totally shut down, but don't expect 15+ points this week like he's been getting lately

With these match-ups in mind, the Bellagio has posted the following odds to win. The comments next to each team are my own, and in no way represent the views of the people at Bellagio's sportsbook:

2:1 Touched by an uncle 2 - The leader in the clubhouse and only 1 other team is within 9 points of him. Brees, T.Jones and Turner will keep him in contention. All he needs is for his receiving corp to come through and he could be a millionaire. He needs the Santana Moss from September, not December. It will also be interesting to see if he goes with the better match-up at OP (Schaub), or the better player (Romo or Ch.Johnson).

2:1 Hip ID Liquos - The only team close to TBAU right now. I think he has more players with good match-ups, but not having Slaton could hurt. Steven Jackson can make up that difference. His wild card player is Eli Manning. He's the only owner who has him although I see the NY/Car game being a low scoring affair, so don't expect a lot out of "the other Manning".

4:1 Xfactor - The team name is apropos as he has a very unique roster and other than Aaron Rodgers and Andre Johnson, most of his players don't appear on other teams. He can either make a big splash or a big nose dive. With so many unique players, he has many wild cards, but I narrowed it down to 2...Laverneous Coles and Phillip Rivers. Favre always thrived going against Mike Holmgren and he's due for a good game. Coles could be the beneficiary. River has had some monster games and being the only owner with him is a good sign for the Xfactor.

6:1 Cocktails and Dreams XIV - Currently 10 behind the leader. He's an owner with experience and has played match-ups perfectly lately. I'm not a fan of Chris Johnson's match-up this week, but Chad has shown that he's not afraid to bench star players if other match-ups are better. He has a huge wild card in Adrian Peterson. ADP can go off for 30+ points at any time and only C&D XIV can benefit from such a score.

6:1 Rotoplay - This team originally game out at 10:1 odds but after I put a few grand on them, the odds dropped to 6:1. Why do I like a team that has to pass 9 teams and some teams by more than 12 points? I must be crazy! (this is true) He has the two best qb match-ups this week with Brees and Rodgers. He also has two of the 3 best running back match-ups with Slaton and Forte. He will have to bench Chris Johnson, but I think that's a good thing. His wild card is Santonio Holmes. He and Roethlisberger have combined for some big games the past few years. Andre Johnson shredded the Titan secondary last week and without Haynesworth or VandenBosch, Big Ben should have plenty of time to throw. DON'T CALL IT A COMEBACK! ROTOPLAY WINS A MILLION DOLLARS!

10:1 Who Wha - Currently sitting 4th, he has to hope for a good week just to stay in the top 7. There's a true lack of firepower on this team especially with Warner's bad match-up. Shaun Hill can neutralize that and keep him in contention.

10:1 Cocktails and Dreams - Has the big 3 of Brees, Rodgers and Slaton. Probably your best play for the odds on the board right now. The key is who will he start at his 2nd rb? Westbrook is my choice, but he may feel differently than me on the match-ups for D'Angelo and/or Chris Johnson. Westbrook doesn't have an easy match-up, but he seems to excel against the good teams because Philly has to rely on him to gain yards.

10:1 skull crushers III - has the 2 top qb's along with Pierre Thomas. His WR's are fairly unique and all could have big games. The biggest question mark is his 2nd running back. Both Jacobs and Barber are banged up. With Barber playing on Saturday, he may have to pull the trigger and play him in the bad match-up not risking that Jacobs won't play on Sunday. I'm going on the limb and saying his Giants defense is the wild card that could push him to the top. Delhomme has a history of being turnover prone and the Giants could easily take advantage of this.

10:1 www.peepdot.com - He'll be a fan favorite in Vegas as he starts recruiting talent for this future porn site. He has some good match-ups and no really bad match-ups. I expect him to be in the middle of the pack. His chance to win a million lies with Peyton Manning. As the only owner, he can benefit greatly. However, Indy historically struggles against Jacksonville, even though the Jags D is not very intimidating this year.

12:1 kram madness 3 - Will gain on most with Pierre Thomas. Ronnie Brown has a great match-up and should be a solid #2 rb this week. His OP is going to be the keys this week. As mentioned above, Delhomme is not a great play. Addai is coming off injury and his productivity is a big question mark. Rhodes may be the safer play, but how many touches will he get? I would go with the hot hand in Shaun Hill. With Hill and Brown, he can take the risk he needs to go for the million. I assume everyone is in it to win it and aren't going to try and play things safe just so they can hold on to a top 5 spot.

20:1 Mike and Shea Dynasty - A lack of good match-ups combined with the potential down weeks for D'Angelo and Warner will make it hard for this team to be a legitimate contender. Favre and Westbrook are his only hopes to move up to the top 3 this weekend.

40:1 Giantboys - Already behind the 8 ball, this team lacks talent, especially at QB. McNabb has a bad match-up. Bulger has a good match-up but is just plain bad. I don't completely rule him out because of his 3 musketeers - LT, Forte and Colston. This unique trio should produce big this week and if they all go nuts, he has a chance. If I were the owner, I would take a big risk to try and go for the million. I'd start Bulger at qb and Hines Ward at OP over D'Angelo Williams. That's probably why I'm blogging and he's still participating. =)

75:1 Wolf River Dragons - Has a long way to climb with no good rb match-ups. I would start Kevin Smith against the weak New Orleans defense. His only hope is a big week out of Chad Pennington, but I don't see this happening.

80:1 Junk Yard Dawg - I still don't know how he made it this far with Favre as his one and only QB. Just making it this far is a long shot. He has very good match-ups at RB, but Giantboys has the same tandem and is 8 points ahead of him, so winning it all is very unlikely even if Favre has a 4TD game.

100:1 Skowman - Being low man on the totem pole, he has a long way to climb. His nice combination of Brees, Slaton and Jackson will be nullified by teams above him. Jay Cutler gives him a fighting chance to move up a handful of spots this week. The only chance to move to the top 3 is for a guy like Wes Welker or Ted Ginn Jr to have a huge week.