Right on...almost

Before the season, I made predictions in 4 of my leagues on what the final standings would be. Obviously, it's impossible to predict devastating injuries (can't think of any this year) or who will get key pickups during the season (Miles Austin, Kellen Winslow, Sims-Walker). It appears like I was spot on in 2 leagues and pretty far off in the other 2 leagues. Here's a summary of the predictions.

League #474 Predicted top 3: Cocktails and Dreams, Learn to Rise, Kuhawks Actual top 3: Cocktails and Dreams, Kuhawks, Alley Cats Predicted bottom 3: Goombeans, jccanes, cougar goldrush Actual bottom 3: Learn to Rise, goombeans, cougar goldrush

http://scottffoc.blogspot.com/2009/07/league-474-draft-analysis.html

My key for Chad (Cocktails and Dreams) was to find a solid #2 rb behind MJD and Ray Rice was just that for him. I predicted that kuhawks had a good starting lineup, but thin bench. They added Collie and Mendenhall to strengthen that bench.
I whiffed on Learn to Rise, although my analysis was good. I said the rb's would make or break the team. I figured Barber would be solid and they needed another rb to step up between McFadden, Maroney, and Jonothan Stewart. I figured McFadden would step up to get them in the top 3, but the team fell to the bottom with their rb's doing almost nothing.

League #495 Predicted top 3: cvnopka3, Nicky Double D's, Jack Daniels Actual top 3: Clamdigger 600, Booty Busters 1, sappsuckers Predicted bottom 3: Clamdigger 600, sappsuckers, brew crew Actual bottom 3: Nicky Double D's, Team E, Brew Crew

http://scottffoc.blogspot.com/2009/07/analysis-for-league-495.html

As you can see, I pretty much predicted this league in reverse order. One reason is that Nicky Double D's did not make any pickups throughout the year. They did make roster moves every week, but a big hole at #2 rb and OP was never filled. The turnaround in the sappsuckers from the draft was the additions of Steve Smith and Miles Austin. That gave them some weapons to go with the great qb's they drafted. I'm still trying to figure out how Clamdigger finished 1st. Peyton Manning had a large part I'm sure. My one key was for Ronnie Brown to get 20+ touches a game, and he's done that. DeSean Jackson and Donald Driver did better than expected, so that's probably how they exceeded my expectations.

League #623 Predicted top 3: Jose Cuervo, Lucky Ducks, Guinnes Stingers Actual top 3: Jose Cuervo, Guinness Stingers, moneymandtejas Predicted bottom 3: Just Russ, Cookie Monster, Papercuts Actual bottom 3: Lucky Ducks, Just Russ, Little J

http://scottffoc.blogspot.com/2009/08/draft-analysis-league-623.html

This is the only league where I road the high horse and picked my team to win it. My tequilla crew had my back and won the league's regular season title. My predicted standings were pretty close to 100% with the one exception being the Lucky Ducks. They did score the 3rd most points in the league, so they must of had bad luck in the match-ups each week. Calvin Johnson's injury hurt them too.
Papercuts finished 7th, which is better than the 10th I predicted, but they were 9th in the league in points scored. Russ tried making a new mold in this league by taking a WR with his first 4 picks (Fitzgerald, A.Johnson, Wayne, S.Smith). As expected, the lack of QB and RB hurt him in the long run. RB probably hurt him the most as Flacco and Cassel were decent most weeks. Lesson learned?

League #710 Predicted top 3: Brilliant Ballplayers, Direwolf, Growlers Actual top 3: White Crane XVIII, Jager Meister, Anarchist Predicted bottom 3: Colts_4, nolencole, Thor Actual bottom 3: Brilliant ballplayers, Thor, ManBombwigs

http://scottffoc.blogspot.com/2009/08/league-710-draft-writeup.html

White Crane got the WR production out of free agents/lower picks that I said they needed. Austin, VJax and Sidney Rice were all studs more weeks than they were duds. I was also way off on Brilliant Ballplayers. I grossly over-valued their bench players. Steven Jackson's lack of TD's didn't help either. ManBombwigs finished much lower than my 4th place prediction, but they didn't change their lineup the last 2 weeks which cost them a 4th or 5th place finish as they went 0-4 and would have finished 6th with 1 win in those 2 weeks.
I loved my team after the draft, but don't like to give my teams high expectations, so I picked it to finish 5th. I had a nice run late to make the playoffs.


Overall, my post-draft analysis in all the leagues was quite accurate. This was one year where most of the players I valued high did well and the ones I thought would struggle, did struggle. Of my 6 tier teams, the worst one finished in 5th place. I had 3 teams make the Vegas bracket and a 4th team lose out on a tie breaker. I will do more post-draft analysis next season to see if this was just a lucky year for me or if I can truly evaluate talent accurately.

Coming later this week will be a preview of my 3 league championship games.

Good luck to those who have meaningful games this week!