Cards vs 49ers on Monday Night

As it stands now, the cut line is 126.10 in the Las Vegas bracket of the FFOC. The cut line went up 20 points during the shootout between the Eagles and Giants last night. I don't anticipate that big of a jump tonight. Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis are the players owned by more owners around the cut line than anyone else. Here are some stats going into tonights game:

- 10 teams currently above the cut have less than 130 points with no players remaining. Good effort, but you won't be going to Vegas unless you enter the Bellagio bracket

- 9 teams between 130 and 135 have no players remaining. A few of you will squeak thru barring some huge nights. You'll definitely be sweating with every score or long play

- 7 teams are within 10 of the cut line and have 2 players going tonight. 5 should advance for sure and the teams with Boldin/Davis and Davis/Arizona may have to sweat it out

- 13 teams in all are within 5 of the current cut line of 126.10 and have at least 1 player playing.

- 16 teams are 5-10 points below the cut line with at least one player playing

- 16 teams are 10-15 points below the cut line. 5 of them have 2 players and 11 have 1 player left (Boldin - 3, Warner - 2, Davis - 2, Gore, Crabtree, Smith, Fitzgerald)

- 15 teams are 15-20 points below the cut line. 4 have 2 players going, 1 has 3 players (warner, smith, fitzgerald) and should make the cut, 10 have only 1 player and need an above average performance (davis - 4, boldin - 3, warner, fitzgerald, arizona)


I plugged in the following guestimated average scores for the players going tonight. Some are on the conservative side and some are probably too generous:
Warner - 17 pts
Smith - 15
Gore - 13
Boldin - 10
Fitzgerald - 10
Hightower - 9
Davis - 7
Crabtree - 7
Wells - 5
Rackers - 6
Nedney - 5
Breaston - 5

Using these totals, the cut line moves to 134.54. There are a lot of teams right around this number, so every yard at the end of the game is going to make a difference. Hopefully the kicker and defensive live scoring is accurate tonight. Not many have Arizona so it shouldn't be a big impact on the cut line that appears in the live scoring.

Obviously Warner is capable of going for 30+ and if he does, Boldin and/or Fitzgerald will most likely be over 20. This could move the cut line a few more points, but I don't see it going above 138. I like my prediction of 134.54, but I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up a few points lower than that.

After reviewing all the teams and the scores, I no longer think my team is a guarantee to move on sitting at 129.48 pts and Michael Crabtree tonight. An early Crabby TD will let me relax and watch how the cut line affects the other teams. The last thing I want is an Arizona domination and a 28-3 half time score with Warner throwing for 250 yds and 3 TDs. It could happen against the Niners secondary, but I doubt it will.

Predictions for tonight
score: Arizona 27 San Francisco 17
Cut line: 134.54
Jim Beam final score: 137.01

Good luck to those of you on the cusp of joining William and Brian in the final 97!