My day began with a review of the weather reports for the games and nothing too alarming for me. I did see that Seattle was supposed to get rain, so I decided to stay with Kris Brown over Mare at kicker (gained 7 points with that decision). I then headed off to my noon bowling league. Thankfully my kicker was my only player going. I was disappointed when Chris and Andre Johnson each had big games. At least neither found the end zone.
Once bowling finished, I bellied up to the bar, opened up my laptop, and let the chase begin! I was in 97th place at 8 points when the Packers game started. Twenty minutes, and an 83 yd Greg Jennings TD later, I was up to 55 points in the blink of an eye. Keeping 140 as the score to get in mind, I figured that if I could get to 100 after the 3 pm games, I'd have a good shot with ADP, Campbell and Moss yet to play.
After the quick start, I hit a lull in the 2nd quarter and I seemed to be in the 50's forever. Then my co-MVP, ARodge, scampered for a 14 yd TD run and I jumped out of my seats. "Jim Beam for everyone" I said to the bartender. By half time, I was around 70 points and doing OK. The third quarter started with a Rodgers to Finley TD and then came another round of Jim Beam! A few long DeSean Jackson catches and another Rodgers TD pass and I was over the century mark. However, the cut line had sky rocketed up over 135. I still felt confident, but I needed more.
As the 3 pm games were winding down, I was at 115 and the Packers had taken the lead. I new this was a great opportunity for sacks and hopefully a pick 6 for my defense. Instead, I was deflated by a 3 man rush, a missed sack by Cullen Jenkins, and a great pass and catch by Roethlisberger. Not only did my home team lose (with no time to get garbage points from Rodgers and Jennings and Finley), but I lost 3 more points from my defense as they have now given up 37 points. Not to mention, I decided to bench Mike Wallace this week in favor of Jason Avant in my big money home league and am now losing because of it.
Devastated, but still liking my chances to make the top 15, I went to bar #2 to watch the Vi-queens game to root on ADP. I saw a few teams ahead of me had Favre and Rice and not many had Peterson. I was counting on him for 15-20 points and possibly more. I figured that a big game would almost guarantee me a spot in the top 15. He started off slow, as they threw the ball a lot and went 3 and out often. However, he managed a second effort TD in the 2nd quarter to prompt me to say "Goody (bartender)...Jim Beam for anyone who wants one!" I needed to keep the karma going for my Jim Beam team as I also sported a Greg Jennings T-shirt and Packers zubaz.
Carolina was having their way and ADP was a big disappointment. He got me 10 points, which kept me alive, but meant I'd need work on Monday. I took some solace that Favre was having a low scoring game. And just when I thought ADP was done, he caught a swing pass with 3 minutes left and broke loose. GO! GO! GO! I was yelling. A TD is just what the doctor ordered. He ended up being tackled after a 63 yard gain and I was feeling good again.
I was receiving texts from my friends Kalen and Pete who are also in the FFOC. They said I was sitting great at about 22 off the cut line with 2 players to go. I went through all the teams tonight and here's how it looks:
cut line: 148.26
Jim Beam: 127.82 with Campbell and S.Smith remaining
teams above me with players left and are below the cut: 10
teams behind me that could leap from me: 0 (some can, but only if I don't make it to the cut line)
score I'd be confident will make the top 15: 156
Points by Campbell and Smith last time these teams played week 1: 18.44
My team was set up perfectly for this week, and it should pay big dividends. How you ask? I have 3 qb/wr combos on this team. I started Rodgers and Jennings, and my other two combos play Monday night (manning/smith and campbell/moss). Because they are at home, and the Giants secondary is bad, I planned on playing Campbell and Moss. However, now that I'm in a good position and just need a decent game out of my qb/wr and not a great game, I am going to go with the steady steve smith instead of moss. The other big reason is that two of the 10 teams ahead of me have smith and are 11 points ahead of me. So as long as Campbell scores 12 points, I will have those 2 teams shut out no matter how many Smith scores.
Even though there are 10 teams ahead of me with players going, most are at least 15 points off the cut with either Tynes, Fred Davis or Nicks playing. Here are the 10 teams:
| pigskin mcchickenz | 144.5 + | tynes |
| trthrillers | 138.68 + | smith |
| bkunited | 138.18 + | smith |
| beasts ii | 136.26 | + nyg |
| bruin nation | 133.76 | + nicks |
| midway monsters | 132.02 | + tynes |
| delta 4q | 131.9 | + nicks |
| super system xxxv | 129.2 | + tynes |
| super system xv | 128.48 | + f.davis |
| nytcxpress1 | 127.84 | + f.davis |
Pigskin has a good chance of getting above the cut line and replacing team awesome. So I will either need to pass them to get in, or make it to the next dead team above the cut which is eric h (hottails and screams 7) at 151.74 pts.
I give my team a 60% chance of making the top 15. Even if I do, I can't realistically think I'll have a chance at winning the million dollar top prize since I'll be near the bottom of the standings of the 15 and will have to make up 20+ points. Possible, but not likely.
I am 100% confident in going with Campbell and Smith tomorrow. I won't second guess not starting Manning if he does well. The Skins have the 4th ranked pass defense and the Giants are 9th, but have been very bad of late. Also, Campbell has the hot hand as he's had multiple TD passes in each of the last 3 weeks and has been over 230 yards the last 4. OK...now that I look at Manning's numbers for the season and the past 4 weeks, I'm having second doubts. I guess tomorrow will be a research day. Eeny meeny miney moe.....
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